July 4, 2015

The bottom is current, how to operate in the future

On Friday, the market fell 225.85, down 5.77%; Chongbai fell 8.96%; down 2.41 yuan per share.

At present, the stock market is not only a policy bottom in the short term, but also an over-falling technical bottom. Over the weekend, from the official to the non-governmental, intensive statements, it can be said that they are united, the determination and attitude to protect the disk are unprecedented, and the market rebound is imminent, and it is foreseeable that next week must be a week of rebound.

Judging from the panic of the management, the stock market decline has triggered the risk of financial crisis, before, there was no leverage effect, even if the stock market fell, it was only a loss of market value, this time it may be different, this time not only the loss of market value, but also may lead to financial systemic risk.

It is conceivable that the rebound in the market outlook must be crazy and violent, which is in line with the characteristics of the current stock market. If it falls fast and rises quickly, the blue chips in the future will rise again, and the GEM may be marginalized. It is very likely to deduce the 28 market, the elephant dances, and the small and medium-cap stocks rebound slightly, and they will fall softly and indefinitely.

This is extremely disadvantageous for retail investors who are accustomed to small-cap stocks, and some may grab the short-term to grab the halfway point of the mountain.

So next, how to deal with the extremely complex market outlook.

To calm the mood, here's a classic stock market story that has been played out countless times in the stock market.

An old man laid a trap to catch a turkey, and he sprinkled corn inside and outside a large cage with a mechanism tied to it, and he hid in one place by holding on to the other end of the rope, and as long as he waited for the turkey to enter the cage, he pulled the rope and closed the cage. One day, 12 turkeys entered the box, unfortunately 1 of them slipped out, he wanted to wait for 12 turkeys in the box, then closed the door, but while he was waiting for the 12th turkey, 2 more turkeys ran out, he wanted to wait for 11 more turkeys in the box, so he pulled the rope, but while he was waiting, 3 more turkeys slipped out. The old man said to himself, "As long as I catch one more, I will definitely close the door." Finally, there was not one turkey left in the cage, and the old man returned empty-handed.

This story is used to describe the current mood of many shareholders and friends, the first half of the good market, many people turned over and even made more, this plunge lost more than half of the profits, many friends may think in their hearts, if I return to my position at the high point of this year, I will close the cage and leave the stock market. Therefore, in the rebound, you will expect the stocks in your hands to return to the highest point, and when the stock market falls, you will hesitate, and you will hesitate to stay or go out. Unable to objectively analyze the situation, with the mentality of a gambler, blindly sticking to it, you may end up falling into the abyss again. Losses are even more, which is caused by a human weakness, and failure to overcome this weakness will result in countless injuries in the stock market.

Therefore, investing in a balanced mindset in the stock market in the second half of the year may be more important than clever technical analysis.

In the second half of the year, I want to completely forget about the maximum market capitalization of the first half of the year and set a tentative profit target of 20% based on the current market value of the stock. After the profit target is completed, the position is cleared and the next profit target is revised.

In this round of rebound, many stocks may quickly withdraw 20% or more, and they are still relatively confident that the 20% target will be completed.

Come on, scatter, keep profits, keep chips, and mix in the stock market for another ten years. Come on.