Chapter 7 Using the "Shoeshine Boy Theory" to Predict the Top of the Market
Saturday, June 13, 2015
A few days ago, I saw "China's God Car" punched Siemens and stepped on the Boeing plane" and today I saw "8 college entrance examination candidates bring 100,000 into the stock market after the exam: I plan to earn a million a year" I was deeply shocked, and I strongly felt that the current stock market, hovering around a big top, although I don't know how to deduce the fall, is it like the second half of 07 years to only earn the index and not make money or to end in the way of gambling crazy speculation on new stocks, but, this round of feast, it is time for the end of the song to disperse.
Although the current goal of new shares and reform has not been achieved, and the suppression policy has not appeared, for retail investors, the market is full of traps, and once they step in, it is difficult to get out of the whole body.
Of course, this is just my personal speculation, which may be extremely inaccurate, so let me tell you why.
"China's God Car" punches Siemens on the Boeing plane" This news indicates that the giants of A-shares have been highly valued after this round of speculation, of course, I don't care about the so-called valuation, I only care about real money, these giants push up, it takes a lot of money to make it not small, so China's God Car is now down 30% in four days, and many retail investors have acted as the bearers of the last stick. The high valuation of the god car is only a representative of large-cap stocks, not to mention the so-called god creation board, many people are still applauding the god creation board, but go to look at the listed companies on the god creation board, but there are really quality, and there are only a handful of stocks with the same innovation ability as LeTV, because those really competitive stocks have gone to Hong Kong stocks or US stocks to be listed, a company without high-quality resources, only the valuation of the high-quality theme of the god board is unclear. Think about stocks like the Storm Myth, creating a valuation myth on the Shenchuang Board, and even the listed companies are rising in a weak heart, think about it, is this Shenchuang Board one trap after another waiting for you to jump. From 2012 to 2013, I specialized in the GEM, at that time, the stocks of the small and medium-sized board and the main board were basically not done, and after the second half of 2014, I never looked at the stocks of the GEM again, and of course I missed this round of crazy Shenchuang board feast. I don't regret it so far, I feel that I don't earn this money, and I would rather give up the money that is not solid, which is an important part of my profit model.
"8 college entrance examination candidates bring 100,000 into the stock market after the exam: plan to earn a million a year" This news indicates that the money-making effect has exhausted the stock market regeneration funds, which is similar to the famous shoe-shine boy theory on the stock market, there is a professional on Wall Street, before going to work one day, let a shoeshine boy help him shine his shoes, this child, actually talked to him about stocks, and told him to buy which is good and which can only make more money. After he heard it, he thought to himself that even a shoeshine boy was full of stock scriptures, and the stock market was about to crash, and sure enough, it didn't take long for the stock market to crash, as he expected. Thinking of the ultra-high turnover of the Shanghai Stock Exchange a few days ago, thinking of the uncles and aunts around me, they are all talking about how stocks are, and thinking of people who have not looked at the stock market for 800 years to recommend stocks to me, I think it's time to leave for a while, although I can't be sure whether the current is a historical top, but at least the short-term top has been highlighted, according to my operating system, I will gradually lock in profits, leave some bottom positions, withdraw money, and wait for the next suitable opportunity.
These are my personal opinions, I hope not to mislead everyone, after all, our stock market is a market that can create legends, can create a god car, a god creation board, and maybe also create a 'god index'. Because according to the law of inertia, even if the stock market wants to adjust, it will slide forward for a period of time, and it is not good to say whether it is a sideways adjustment or a downward pressure. Moreover, there are still many stocks in the stock market that can be operated, and perhaps the decline in the broader market is the time when it is soaring against the trend, so everyone should make their own judgment based on personal preferences.
The reason why I'm here here is because I pay attention to Chongbai, and like everyone else, I stand here and go with the flow.