June 30, 2015

Reconstruction after the stock market crash

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 5.53%, the largest increase in 6 years, with an amplitude of 10% throughout the day, and Chongbai rose 8.39%, up 2.49;

In recent days, some people in the post continue to question my motives, Chongqing stockholders on 2015-06-29 said "follow the good temptation, set you on the market", Shandong Yantai stockholders said "boastful from the main force began to ship to the present, I don't know how many people have been deceived, I have to hehe, in order to fight back against the main force of everything!" "Here, I repeat once again, I am not a so-called trust, and I have no intention of being a god here, and I have suffered a lot personally.

The stock market fell, and it was a sharp fall in the mud and sand, watching the profits evaporate day by day, who was not comfortable, this fall, breaking all technical categories, there is only one way to do it: that is, unconditionally closing the position at the beginning of the fall, once you miss this opportunity, looking at the stock quilt 20% or more, the more you will struggle, the more trapped, like an insect falling into a spider's web, the more intense the struggle, the faster you die. As a retail investor, I had to rethink myself to prevent myself from becoming the insect in the spider's web.

There are indeed many masters in the bar, who are not afraid of the cruel scene of the bloody river, and the stockholder "Huige" accurately escaped to the top, and intervened in a low position in the bloody rain on Friday, his reasons are:

"First of all, let's talk about my operation, the market opened lower on Friday, as expected, and then gradually lowered, near the moment when the previous low was about to be reached near 4200, and the heavy position mode was launched, and all the remaining funds were finished. Why does this work? Considered from the perspective of technical adjustment, that is, the low point is confirmed, and after completion, it is withdrawn in the afternoon to form a double-needle bottom. However, the afternoon turned out to be a complete disappointment for me and gave me a slap in the face. Calm down and reflect on my judgment, especially whether my judgment of the general trend is wrong. The result is: the general trend judgment is correct, and it will continue to rise after adjustment, the fault is that the short-term trend and the bad environment are underestimated (especially beyond the technical things), and the position control is also aggressive. Once the market stabilizes, I will save myself during the shock and reduce costs, but I will never cut the meat, because the point I entered the warehouse is not high from the high point in the future, and the operation of these 2 days makes me need to pay more labor later, and it is very easy to untie the set, and I take such a big risk to come in to make a profit. Let's talk about the general trend, and the following questions will suddenly become clear after thinking clearly, 1. Has the reform of state-owned enterprises been completed? 2. Has the "One Belt, One Road" strategy been implemented? 3. With the loss of the financing function of the stock market, will the above two tasks be realized soon? 4. No major emergencies would crash the stock market? The answer is: NO!! What to do now is to think less about stocks or stocks, relax your mood, what to do, wait and rest! Unless you have leverage or are in a hurry to use money, you can't do this. ”

Not to mention that the 20-year-old "Huige" friends did not estimate the thrill of A-shares, and even his group of hardcore first-generation shareholder friends did not expect that the stock market would plummet after the double generals, he left a message on Sunday:

"Today, I attended the wedding banquet of my friend's child, and met many old friends, most of whom are full-time stock traders, like me, stock trading is a side business, but they are all a generation of stockholders, so I naturally talked about the current focus - the stock market. The view on the general trend is basically the same, this year's harvest is very large, all of them successfully escaped from the top, and the recent operation is surprisingly consistent (although everyone is an old friend, there is absolutely no pass in advance), in Friday's decline, the least are into half of the position. Is this accidental or inevitable? It's inevitable!! We can't do anything outside of technology, we can only judge what is within our ability and grasp it well. We can't find out why the stock market plummeted. Participants can only face the abnormal plunge and need to return to the normal track, and the double drop announced this time is a corrective measure!!! So much so that the friend who had a half-position on Friday regretted not having a full position, and I laughed and said: You bought it all on the fall limit, and it was not enough to copy my bottom? I'm too greedy, and I'm forced by the market to take a full position, and I'm a little frightened. ”

Even the management has made unprecedented emergency statements to maintain stability, and from yesterday to today, they have spoken out one after another to maintain stability, which is also unprecedented. Although he did not verbally admit the stock market crash, he did it with practical actions

Finally, under the resonance of multiple forces, A-shares rebounded to record the largest increase in 6 years.

So what are the forces driving this rally: I can summarize the following six points:

1. The central mother cut the reserve requirement ratio and cut the interest rate. (Good has been released)

2. Certificate. Supervise. It will be rare to come out to appease during and after hours on Monday. (On Monday and Tuesday, they came out to appease each other, although it is a cliché, but it can be seen that the management's attitude towards the decline of the stock market, a sharp drop is something they are not willing to see.) )

3. Central Huijin is suspected of coming to the rescue, and smashed 10 billion yuan to subscribe for four blue-chip ETFs on Monday. (This is the main force driving this round of rebound and plays an important role in stabilizing the broader market.) The effect is limited, and Monday's plunge is a good example. ）

4. The pension market entry method was released. (It has been announced, but the pension enters the market, there must be a process, and the pension will not become the top receiver, will not take the last baton, it will only copy the bottom, the truth does not need to be detailed, everyone understands.) ）

5. They are looking forward to reducing stamp duty. (If this news is true, then the stock market will have a ** rise.) ）

6. Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that China is considering suspending its IPO in response to a sharp drop in the stock market. (The probability of suspension is very low, but I hope it can be reduced, and the gradual expansion will be gradually expanded after the market is repaired.) ）

The first three of the six have been cashed, the fourth pension into the market is a long-term good for the stock market, but the short-term effect is limited, the current can only play a comforting psychological role, is conducive to alleviating the nervousness of stockholders.

If Article 5 and Article 6 are rejected by the management themselves, the market may return to a state of collapse again, and the stock market crash will spread further. So, keep an eye on Article 5 and Article 6, and if these two articles are empty checks, then be careful and take conservative action.

4,000 points, now it can be said that it is the bottom of the policy, the management panicked near this point, if it falls below 4,000 points, it may run to the next point of 3,000 points, presumably this is the result that all parties in the market do not want to see.

The process of squeezing the bubble was thrilling and carried out in an unprecedented way, and one world record after another was broken by A-shares. The three generations of old, middle-aged and young shareholders have learned a profound lesson and experienced a risky and exciting game like a roller coaster ride in the stock market.