Lao Xu and Lu Xiaoqi were very interested in Sun Haoyang's moving average trading method of steady profit and no loss, and both of them stretched their necks and pricked up their ears, for fear of missing any important links.

However, Sun Haoyang did not directly explain the principle of the moving average trading method, but asked rhetorically: "How many technical analysis methods do you know?" ”

This question is very simple, without waiting for Lao Xu to answer, Lu Xiaoqi preemptively said: "There are many technical analysis methods, commonly used are KDJ, MACD, Bollinger Bands, VR, DMI, William ......"

Lu Xiaoqi said more than a dozen technical indicators in one breath, and Sun Haoyang saw that he was still talking, so he interrupted: "What you said are all technical indicators, and I am asking about technical analysis methods." ”

Lu Xiaoqi was stunned for a moment, and said suspiciously: "Technical analysis method? What's that? ”

Sun Haoyang smiled and said: "The technical analysis method is the method we use to predict the future trend of the market, and the technical indicators you just mentioned are actually tools used to assist technical analysis methods." ”

"I still don't understand what you mean, aren't technical indicators directly used to predict stock trends? What's the other way? ”

"So let's take an example, for example, the KDJ indicator you just mentioned, how can this indicator be used to predict the trend?"

"It's not simple, when the KDJ indicator is too high, it means that individual stocks are likely to pull back, and if the indicator is too low, it means that individual stocks may rebound. But of course, this can only be used as a reference, and it is better to analyze it in conjunction with other indicators. ”

Sun Haoyang nodded and said, "So what about the next one, the MACD indicator?" ”

"MACD should be regarded as a trend indicator, when MACD is a red column, it means that individual stocks are in an upward channel, and when MACD appears a green column, it means that the trend begins to turn from rising to falling." These are the foundations of technical analysis, so Lu Xiaoqi answered very quickly.

"You just answered very well, but I don't know if you realized it, the two technical analysis indicators you just mentioned are actually two completely different technical analysis methods."

"Two completely different methods of technical analysis......" Lu Xiaoqi frowned and pondered for a while, then suddenly slapped the table and said, "Oh! I see, the KDJ indicator predicts the future trend by judging whether the stock trend is overbought and oversold, while the MACD indicator predicts the future trend by judging the trend of the stock. ”

"You've finally answered the point, in fact, it's not just the KDJ indicator and the MACD indicator, almost all indicators can be explained in these two ways.

For example, the Bollinger Bands you just mentioned rely on judging the upper and lower bands of individual stock trends, which is a typical overbought and oversold analysis.

The VR indicator uses the golden cross and death cross of the two lines of VR and M**R to judge the trend of individual stocks, which is a trend analysis method. ”

"Oh, I understand, the moving average trading method you talked about before, using the golden cross of the two moving averages to judge the rise and fall of individual stocks, is actually a trend trading method."

"You're right, but before you do that, you need to be clear, what is the technical analysis method, what is the analysis?"

"Isn't it a stock trend?"

Sun Haoyang shook his head slightly, pointed to his chest with his finger and said: "Technical analysis methods, fundamentally speaking, are actually analyzing people's hearts.

In fact, all the technical analysis methods we know now do not study the trend of stocks, but the psychological state of the people who buy them.

So do you know what psychological states trend trading analysis and overbought and oversold analysis are aimed at? ”

Lu Xiaoqi shook her head, indicating that she didn't know.

In fact, the psychological state of all shareholders can be summed up in two kinds: fear and greed, shareholders are not only afraid of the risk of stock speculation, but also the high returns of stock speculation, specifically one is afraid of being trapped, and the other is afraid of stepping short.

In the overbought and oversold analysis, when the short-term price of a stock rises too fast, the technical indicator will indicate that the price is overbought, which is actually telling you that the investors who bought the stock before are starting to panic in their hearts, and they are beginning to be afraid that the stock price that has risen too quickly will fall back.

Driven by this fear, they will be inclined to sell the stock, which will naturally lead to a decline in the stock price.

Conversely, when the short-term price of the stock falls too fast, the technical indicators will indicate that the price is oversold, and at this time retail investors will start to be greedy, they will be worried about going short, afraid that they will never see such a cheap price in the future, so they start to buy, and the stock price will naturally rebound.

When the stock price begins to rise, it means that everyone starts to buy stocks, and shareholders will be red when they see others making money, and they will follow the purchase, so the stock price will continue to rise.

When the stock price begins to show a downward trend, shareholders are afraid that others will walk in front of them and become a stepping stone for others, so they compete to sell under the effect of fear, so the stock price will continue to fall. ”

Lao Xu, who was listening carefully, suddenly raised a question: "But there is an obvious contradiction in your theory, when the stock price starts to rise, according to the overbought and oversold analysis method, it will show that the stock has been overbought and should be sold."

According to trend trading analysis, at this time, the uptrend of the stock has just been established, and it is right to buy.

Isn't it contradictory that two different methods of analysis make diametrically opposed judgments? ”

Sun Haoyang was about to talk about this question, but he didn't expect to be thought of by Lao Xu first, so he nodded heavily and said: "You are not wrong at all, there is no contradiction between the overbought and oversold analysis method and the trend trading analysis method, it is simply incompatible."

The technical indicators studied using these two different analytical methods are almost always completely opposed.

Many beginners who study technical analysis can easily put two completely incompatible technical indicators together, and the result can only be that the more they analyze, the more confused they become, and they lose their direction by two completely opposite conclusions.

What's worse is that when there are different prediction conclusions on such multiple indicators, the subjective judgment of shareholders often plays a decisive role.

Let's say you find that there are four technical indicators, two of which predict that the stock will rise in the future, and the other two predict that the stock will fall in the future.

When you take heavy positions, you are unconsciously inclined to believe that the stock will rise in the future; Conversely, when you take a short position or even a short position, you will be more confident that the stock will fall in the future.

This situation cannot be completely avoided even by many experienced and veteran stockholders.

In many cases, when investors conduct technical analysis, they do not judge the future trend of stocks through technical indicators, but first subjectively judge the future trend of stocks, and then look for technical indicators that meet the requirements to prove their views.

Of course, it is naturally impossible to get the correct result of this kind of judgment influenced by subjective thoughts......"

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