I got sick over the weekend, and the stock review came a little late.

Last week, the market bottomed out and rebounded, but after all, the market still failed to effectively break through 4,000 points

There is a way that is a blow and then three times exhausted, the market has not been able to rush up in one breath to form a V-shaped reversal, but at the bottom sideways, which is definitely not a good thing.

With the broader market trading sideways below 4,000 points, people's hearts are slacking and funds are fleeing.

The stock market is completely different now than it was two months ago, and the mindset of investors has changed 180 degrees.

Just two months ago, new and old investors in the stock market were still excited, and everyone was looking forward to the stock market rushing to 8,000 points or 10,000 points.

At that time, there was no concept of risk in the minds of stockholders, and they only thought about making money, even if the stock price had risen to one or two white blocks, even if the price-earnings ratio of the stock had reached hundreds of times.

At that time, the investors had only one idea, don't miss this big bull market, just afraid that they will buy too little and enter too late.

But less than two months later, the stock market has changed dramatically.

Now I am afraid that there are no shareholders who still want to make money and make a fortune.

The only thought in the minds of those deeply trapped new stocks now is that the market should rebound quickly, and I will never play again as soon as it is untied.

And even those who were lucky enough to escape the stock market crash are panicked, everyone is in danger, even if the position is very light, I am afraid that at this time I dare not blindly enter the market.

As for the target of 8,000 points and 10,000 points, it has long been a joke, and in the eyes of current stockholders, it may not be easy for the market to rebound to 4,500 points. 8000 points? Are you here to be this PLA?

In this case, there are still many people emphasizing that the foundation of the bull market is still there, and even when the market briefly appeared one or two long white candlesticks, some people actually began to look forward to 8,000 points, which is really a bit self-deceptive.

Have you ever seen a bull market where more than 70% of people lose money and can't take care of themselves? Have you ever seen a bull market where new listings were forcibly suspended? Anyway, I, an old stockholder who has been speculating in stocks for 15 years, have never seen it.

In fact, from a technical and trend point of view, when the stock market falls below the lower band of the 4,000-point bull market, the whole wave of the market has come to an end.

In just two months, it is not only the trend and people's hearts that have changed, but also the macroeconomic environment.

What is the basis for the rise of China's stock market? Two words - funding.

Looking back, whether it was the 93 bull market, the 2000 bull market or the 2007 bull market, all of them were accompanied by the issuance of a large amount of funds by the central bank.

At the start of this bull market, the central bank only slightly increased the amount of money issued in the market, perhaps the original intention of the government was to guide a slow bull market.

But then everyone also saw that the innovative leveraged products in the securities market completely disrupted the rhythm of the market, and it coincided with the sharp decline in real estate, so a large amount of funds poured into the bull market without performance support, and created a bull market in the case of a continued economic downturn, which made countless economists fall through the glasses.

The rise of China's stock market mainly depends on funds, and there are three main sources of funds.

The first aspect is the central bank's money supply. The central bank's tightening of monetary policy in June 2013 led to a money shortage, and from the second half of 2014, the central bank began to ease monetary policy.

The interbank lending rate, which is the most indicative of the degree of easing in the interbank market, fell from a peak of 4% to nearly 1%. The market capital has changed from the original tightening situation to relatively loose.

Of course, the current total plate of China's capital is too large, and the broad money supply of 130 trillion yuan, even if it only grows by 10%, is equivalent to the GDP of a second-rate country in a year.

In this case, it is obviously unrealistic to continue to expand the supply of funds in a large proportion, and the alternative measure is to increase the liquidity and utilization of money, which is simply leverage.

As a result, margin trading, graded funds and even leveraged capital allocation have given a steady stream of financial support to this bull market in the past year.

Of course, China's financial market is not only the stock market, but also the real estate monster.

In the past few years, the central bank has not injected a large amount of base money, but most of the billions of funds every year have been absorbed by the rising real estate market.

That's why I predicted a long time ago that as long as China's real estate market doesn't fall for a day, there won't be a bull market in the stock market.

Conversely, as soon as the real estate market collapses, a bull market in the stock market is just around the corner.

And that's true, as the real estate market went down in 2014, the stock market finally came out of the quagmire that had lasted for several years.

The central bank's monetary policy tends to be accommodative, the market is more leveraged, the utilization rate of funds has increased, and the real estate market in the capital market has the largest demand for funds in addition to the stock market.

Under the effect of this triple financial good news, it is normal to promote the stock market to bullish.

However, as the saying goes, success is also Xiao and defeat is also Xiao He, and the three forces that previously drove the stock market bullish are now collapsing and disappearing.

In the last two months, the interbank rate has risen from a low of 1% to 1.3%. In addition, the central bank is also using open market operations to withdraw funds in the repo market.

On the other hand, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has been frightened by the stock market crash caused by the current round of capital allocation leverage, and now it is doing its best to strictly investigate the capital allocation, and even the investors of legal stock index futures, margin trading and graded funds have suffered heavy losses by this ** fall, and they are afraid that they will not have the courage to hold heavy positions in the short term.

On the other hand, the issuance of new shares was forcibly suspended, which is simply a self-severing arm of the CSRC.

The IPO market is not only a financing market, but also a channel to attract capital in a bull market.

For large amounts of money in the form of deposits, cash, treasury bonds, etc., they are not very happy to participate in the high-risk stock market.

The stock market is a very professional market, and the evaluation of China's stock market in the past is not very good, so for ordinary people who lack sufficient financial knowledge or do not have enough energy, most people still have a respectful attitude.

In this case, there is no need to be tempted to allow a large amount of risk-free stock money in banks to enter the stock market.

First of all, to provide a high-yield and risk-free new stock issuance market, and use the high yield of new shares to attract those who dare not take risks to open stock accounts.

Just as the casino is not afraid that you will win, it is afraid that you will not come to play, as long as you step into the door of the casino, there will be various ways to tempt you.

And the simplest one is the high yield of the stock market. What's more than a stock market where the stock market rises every day, and even the vegetable seller aunt can make money with her eyes closed, how many of those newcomers can not be moved?

Those funds attracted by the high yield of new stocks, on the one hand, are troubled by the repeated failure of new stocks, and on the other hand, they watch their friends make a lot of money in the stock market.

If you don't feel impressed, it must be a lie.

So these funds that were originally used to hit new stocks began to try to invest in the stock market, first 5,000, 10,000 funds to test the knife, and then after the initial victory, began to gradually increase investment.

As the profits of new investors increase, they become more and more emboldened, and they begin to feel that the seemingly complex and high-risk stock market is nothing more than that, and it is so easy to make money.

As a result, the last trace of vigilance was gone, and a large amount of money was invested in the stock market, and those new investors began to look forward to making a lot of money on the stock market.

Students are counting on the bull market to earn some tuition and pocket money, ** silk is counting on earning some wives, and the little white-collar workers who work hard in the city are counting on making a down payment for a mortgage by relying on this round of bull market.

Then, naturally, there was no then......

This situation is not something I made up in my head, but the personal experience of many friends around me.

Therefore, the IPO market is not only a financing tool, but also an important channel to attract over-the-counter funds into the stock market.

The forced suspension of the new stock market is equivalent to preventing a large number of new investors from entering the market, which is very unfavorable to the long-term development of the stock market in the future.

If the tightening of capital is only happening in the stock market, then it is not a big problem, after all, China is still a relatively closed economy, the renminbi is not a freely convertible currency, and the Chinese people lack investment channels.

It doesn't matter if you don't buy stocks, anyway, your money can only wait for depreciation, and there is nowhere to invest.

But at this juncture, the real estate market began to rebound, and a group of representative first-tier cities, mainly in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, began to see a collective recovery in housing prices.

If you have a lot of idle money on the one hand, a risky stock market with an uncertain future trend, and a rising real estate market that is beginning to recover, what would you choose?

Anyway, I already have a lot of friends who have or are planning to withdraw from the stock market to buy them.

The central bank's monetary tightening, the deleveraging of the securities market, the recovery of the real estate market, and the total signs and data show that the current macro factors can no longer support the continuation of a bull market.

From a technical point of view, the short-term over-falling small-cap stocks still have rebound momentum, and the hedging disk above is still at a high level, and they are still hoping that the stock market can rebound, so they will naturally not cut meat at this time.

Below, there are a large number of margin calls and funds that were lucky enough to escape the top before.

Therefore, in the short term, the probability of a rebound in small-cap stocks is still relatively large, but due to the lack of financial support and the lack of confidence of stockholders, this rebound does not have the conditions to turn into a reversal.

Once the small-cap stock rebounds to a certain position, such as 50% of the decline under normal circumstances, at this time, the funds below the margin and bottom-buying have been basically exhausted, and the upper hedging disk has also begun to loosen, and the selling pressure has become heavier.

In this case, it is almost impossible for small-cap stocks to continue to rise, and who will be the PLA at this time to give the upper hedging plate?

Funds are moving to defensive heavy-cap stocks, market makers are busy selling, and off-market funds are attracted to the real estate market.

With many enemies lurking and isolated, unless there is a huge change in macro news, the market may not be able to return.

In the short term, small-cap stocks are most likely to get out of the trend of two and three retreats, rise a little, and then fall back immediately.

In terms of large-cap heavyweight stocks, because of the lack of financial support in the overall market, coupled with the current rumors that the bailout funds will be withdrawn, everyone can't have too much hope, low-valuation heavyweight stocks such as banks, because of the cheap price, the loss is probably not enough, but don't expect to make money.

I am afraid that the market will be in this position for a long time, and then we can only wait for changes at the macro level.

If the central bank's funds continue to ease in the future, real estate stops rising, and the government supports the bull market, then the stock market still has a chance to turn around, and if the macro capital situation continues to deteriorate in the next month or two, it is recommended that everyone should no longer have illusions, or endure the pain and admit that it is better to be out of the game, and the so-called long pain is better than short pain.

At present, there are still some opportunities for defensive stocks, such as pharmaceuticals and consumer stocks, but most of these stocks are very expensive, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 30 or 50 times at every turn, so it is not easy to find a suitable defensive stock.

From a macroeconomic point of view, the current global economy, especially the US economy, seems to be showing signs of recovery, and the Baltic Index has recently risen sharply, which is a precursor to economic recovery.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether it will actually recover, and even if China's economy starts to recover, it remains to be seen how much it will help the stock market.

After all, if the economy does recover, there may be more opportunities to invest in real estate than in the unreliable stock market.

Of course, there are some bright spots in this depressed market, such as the continued low international oil prices, which is a great benefit to large oil eaters such as shipping and aviation.

Recently, China Eastern Airlines disclosed that its performance has increased significantly, and at the same time, with the rise of the Baltic Sea shipping index, oil prices have fallen, and shipping stocks have benefited the most.

Therefore, in the short and medium term (within 3 months), if you really can't find a good investment direction, and you can't control yourself, you can buy a little shipping or other stocks with performance expectations, after all, it is late July, and from August, the report will begin to disclose, and there will be a lot of opportunities.

Finally, I would like to take care of you: the first secret of stock trading is to keep the principal and not to lose, and the second secret is to never forget the first one.

Leaving the green mountains is not afraid of no firewood, and the gentleman does not erect a dangerous wall, the wisdom words of the sages have actually pointed out the way out for everyone.

In the case of an uncertain trend, it is better to make less money and avoid losses as much as possible, which may be a bit of a nest, but the story is a marathon, not to see who earns more now, but to see who can hold on to the end.

That's all for today, Jing Ke assassinated King Qin......

This book was first published from 17k, the first time to see the genuine content!

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