This week's stock commentary was basically said in the audio lecture on Saturday night. In view of the fact that many readers did not hear the content of the lecture for the first time, the main content of the lecture is retold here.

Three weeks is a nightmare 15 trading days, especially last week, when the government has issued positive news again and again to give confidence to investors, and this confidence has been shattered again and again by bears.

At this point, I have to regret to tell you that this bull market is really different from before. The lower band of the bull market has fallen below and there is no support, and the future direction of the stock market depends on the degree of panic and irrationality of retail investors.

There have been two relatively large-scale bull markets in China's history, one in 2000 and the other in 2007.

You can take a look at the historical trend of the Shanghai Composite Index, and then use the drawing tool to draw a line to try it, whether it is the bull market in 2000 or 2007, the big market can be speculated to infinitely high by crazy stockholders, this is no problem, but every time there is a pullback, this range is always limited.

Once this decline breaks below the lower band of the long-term ascending channel, the bull market is over.

The 530 plunge of the market in 07, the market finally stopped falling at the lower band, and re-emerged from a wave of market that lasted to 6000 points, and then the market quickly fell below the lower band of the rising channel in January 08, and the bull market ended.

Not only do bull markets have tracks, but so do bear markets.

You can see that the trend from 2009 to 2014 for a full 5 years has maintained a downward channel with a clear upper band.

In November 2010 and February 2013, the broader market tried to challenge the lower band of this descending channel, but unfortunately failed.

This lower band was finally broken in August 2014, and then, after a gap of about 5 years, the bull market arrived.

The bottom of the bull market will continue to rise, and you can connect the lows of the two sideways corrections in November 2014 and February 2015 and draw a line, an extension of this line, which is currently located at 4000 points.

So in fact, the script for this bull market pullback was originally written like this, the market rose to 5100 points, and then pulled back to around 4000 points, and finally 28 conversions, and the low-valued blue chips took over the banner of the small-cap stocks that were speculated, driving the market to create a wave of new highs.

In fact, anyone with a little bit of stock analysis ability can make this script.

Because this script is the script of the 2007 bull market, start, shuffle, the main rising waves, killing and falling, and exhausting the waves......

Almost all investors are looking forward to a repeat of the 2007 bull market, looking forward to the arrival of the final **, and then there will be no more......

Since the end of this main rising wave, especially in the past week, the whole market has gotten out of control and everything has been different.

It can be seen from the government's current urgent and dispossessive measures that the government is really panicking.

I am 90% sure that the stock market crash, the previous 1,000-point decline, was led by the government or at least connived.

Already cash-strapped at the end of June, coupled with two consecutive super-large-cap stock offerings, the government's intention is clear that it wants to squeeze the flaming stock market rally, as they did at 530 in 2007.

This year's bull market has given more mission than any previous bull market, with the country's economy sluggish, hot money fleeing, real estate as the backbone of the economy falling, and bad debt rates in financial markets increasing.

In this context, China desperately needs the stock market to energize the country's economy, and in fact it has done so for most of the past six months.

But perhaps the hungry investors have waited too long - from 2010 to now, there has been no decent market, not even a rebound.

After 5 years of patience, the stock market exploded, and the scale was unprecedented. So much so that all stocks were speculated to an extremely high position.

The government wants to slow down, but the stock market is coming fast, no wonder the government wants to regulate.

Originally, in the government's playbook, this adjustment would fall to 4,000 points like in 07, and then begin to rebound, and the market will regain its upward trend.

It's a pity that this time it's really different!

In 07, there were no stock index futures in the stock market, no margin trading, no graded funds, and no Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect. All stock market resources are in the hands of the government.

But this time it was completely different, and under the dual effect of leverage and a large number of short-selling tools, the stock market was completely defeated.

The little resistance that there is seems to be no effect until the huge short-selling power.

It's completely out of control!

Because the first half of this bull market is too similar to the trend of 07, investors are blindly optimistic, some predict 7,000 points, some predict 8,000 points, and even predict 10,000 points, 12,000 points, even the most cautious shareholders only plan to start reducing positions at 6,000 points, including me.

Originally, in my plan, I planned to start gradually reducing positions after the market broke through the all-time high of 6124.

It's just that no one expected that the market would suddenly stop after just breaking through 5,000 points! Before that, probably 120 out of 100 analysts did not predict the 5,000 point level, and no one even thought about the possibility of the end of the 5,000 point bull market.

All the new investors in this bull market think that I will reduce their positions before the bull market is over, and those old investors who were trapped in the bull market in 2007 or even 2000 will think that this time is different.

But in fact, the result is the same every time, because the stock market is 0 and game, and there is no ability to create wealth, so you can only transfer wealth. When the song is over, someone has to pay.

The wealth in the stock market is virtual, and the stock market has evaporated 21 trillion in the past 15 days, but in fact, the trading volume in the past 15 days has not been 21 trillion in total.

As for the rumors that foreign capital is short, domestic shorting is even more of a rumor. Flies don't stare at seamless eggs, if the stock market is not its own problem, how can it plummet?

Everyone thinks that the main funds are too bad, and in ten days, the total assets have shrunk by half.

So may I ask, when you speculate a new stock worth only 10 yuan to 100 yuan, is this the responsibility of the main force or your responsibility.

Just as now the Greeks are unhappy with the EU's harsh terms, but they never thought about why they are so lazy? It's not the EU that feeds them, they should all be begging for food now.

So the culprit in the stock market is none other than yourself. It was you who speculated the stock price yourself, and now you are losing money, who is to blame? You can only blame your own greed.

Everyone is too blindly optimistic, and they all feel that the trend of the market in the future will continue to continue the trend of 07, which is too careless. So it's wrong.

The stock market is like Napoleon's life, winning every battle, only losing the last one, and everything is gone.

The future trend of the stock market can no longer be easily predicted, and there is no pattern to be found. But there are still some rules to follow.

For example, both Napoleon and Hitler were defeated by the cold snap in Siberia.

For example, people around us who didn't speculate in stocks started talking about stocks, and then the stock market ended.

I'm afraid that the vast majority of shareholders have heard the story of the aunt who sells tea eggs to speculate in stocks, and when the tea eggs of the aunt who sells tea eggs at the door of the securities company are sold out of stock, it is time for us to withdraw from the stock market.

At present, the characteristics of the overheating of the stock market are too obvious, the most obvious is the work group, friend group, and classmate group that have nothing to do with the stock at all, and now the hottest topic every day is stocks.

But sadly, no one wants to quit at this time. Everyone was thinking about the last wave of the big plate, and they wanted to eat the last bite of meat.

The greed in human nature eventually led to the loss of everyone's profits, and everything was beaten back to square one, and even those newcomers who did not listen to my advice and continued to increase their positions above 4,000 points are now estimated to have lost miserably.

Times are changing, but the laws of the stock market are always repeating themselves over and over again.

Before this ** decline, my prediction of this bull market was relatively accurate, because there was a stock market trend in 2007 as a reference. That's why I accurately predicted the main rising wave of the market and the subsequent 1,000-point plunge.

Predicting that the stock market relies on a review of history, the first half of this round of bull market completely replicates the bull market trend of 07, and it is also after the 7-year slow bear market, which is also driven by heavyweight stocks, and the main rising wave of small-cap stocks, and the same thousand-point plunge like 530.

But since last week, the stock market and history have parted ways, and what is worse is that the continuous plunge has broken through the lower band of the bull market in the broader market.

The current situation has made even the government panic, and the government's intention is to keep investors on the risks and focus more on the speculation of small-cap stocks and on the undervalued blue-chip stocks.

The government's intentions were good, they just wanted the bull market to slow down and the stock market to develop well, but the result surprised everyone. Leverage and short-selling forces caused the stock market to fall excessively, and then the retail panic selling made the downward trend unstoppable.

The panicked government has successively introduced a number of favorable policies without any effect, and recently even urgently announced that even the issuance of new shares that have been subscribed for frozen funds has been forcibly suspended!

If the government's bailout measures were only within the rules, now this policy is a forced change of the rules of the game.

China's stock market has always been a policy market, and working against the government will never lead to good results. Therefore, in the previous several favorable measures for the stock market, it can be said that there is a lack of sincerity, just shouting slogans without actual action, this weekend's measures mean that the government is going to move seriously.

No one knows what the short-term trend of the stock market will be in the future, because there is no historical experience to learn from, and today's margin trading and stock index futures are a new thing.

However, there is always a common law in any securities market, that is, a sharp rise is followed by a sharp fall, and a sharp rise is followed by a sharp fall.

For example, if you look at the market trend in 1992~1994, it skyrocketed, plummeted and soared again.

The trend from 2007 to 2009 skyrocketed, then plummeted and then skyrocketed.

So if I were to predict, I think there is a high probability of a retaliatory rally in the broader market in the future.

So with this judgment in mind, what should we do next?

From a short-term perspective, we can't predict where the market will stop falling, and it is likely that your carefully calculated steel plate ground, diamond bottom, is just the ceiling of the 18th floor of hell.

In this case, blindly buying the bottom is definitely not possible, the market is such a huge shock, how much money is not enough to fill in.

So in today's stock market, the most suitable way is the right trend trading method, in short, no rabbit and no eagle.

As for the sectors to focus on, I recommend undervalued weighted blue chips (note that if the underestimate is undervalued, the overvalued ones are not counted). In addition, the interim disclosure season is coming, and you can pay proper attention to stocks with pre-increased performance, such as aviation, shipping, medicine, and securities.

Of course, if it was in the past when the market was inflated, it didn't make much sense to pay attention to performance, but now that many stocks have fallen back to the price of cabbage, you can start the work of digging gold in the sand.

In my previous novel, I once introduced a moving average trading method, which uses two moving averages of different days, the golden cross and the death cross, to determine the trend of stocks.

You can see that in the past 3 weeks of the market crash, if you strictly abide by the discipline of moving average death fork clearance, will you reduce a lot of unnecessary losses.

Of course, with the benefit of hindsight, everyone will be responsible, and I am just giving you an example to tell you the practical application value of the moving average trading method.

Of course, this moving average method is actually the simplest trend trading method. Of course, the trend trading method is definitely not as simple as I said in this article, and it is just a brick throwing in the novel, using the most familiar moving average indicator as an example.

And the core idea of the true trend trading method will be covered in detail in next week's stock review.

This will be a necessary weapon for us to grab the rebound in the future, don't miss it~

In addition, this week's live audio broadcast has worked well under the trial run, and it is very popular with the readers of this book, so I intend to continue this audio lecture mode.

At present, it is tentatively planned to hold an audio lecture on the VIP group 172745237 at 8 p.m. this Friday (July 10) (the time is tentative, and you may have to go to other places on the weekend).

The threshold for the VIP group is not high, mainly because it will provide a better communication environment than the ordinary readership, and it will also avoid a lot of fraud, advertising accounts and flooding.

Here I reiterate the rules for joining the VIP group, as long as you meet any of the following requirements, you can apply to join the VIP group 172745237, when applying to join the group, please attach your 17k website nickname:

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