"Prisoner's Dilemma?" Gu Zhanyan asked, "What do you mean?" How I don't understand. ”

"I know that." "The gist of it is that two bad guys were arrested, but the police didn't know exactly if and who did the bad thing, so they couldn't convict them." So, the police separated the two villains and gave each of them conditions:

The police told everyone: if both of them deny, they will be sentenced to one year in prison each;

If both confess, they are sentenced to eight years each;

If one of the two confesses and the other denies, the confessor is released, and the denial is sentenced to ten years.

As a result, each prisoner is faced with two choices: confession or denial.

However, no matter what the accomplice chooses, the best choice for each prisoner is to confess: if the accomplice denies it, if he confesses himself, he will be released, and if he denies, he will be sentenced to ten years, and it is better to confess than not to confess;

If the accomplice confesses and confesses himself, he will be sentenced to eight years, which is still better than ten years for denying it.

As a result, both suspects chose to confess and were sentenced to eight years in prison each. If both of them deny it, they will be sentenced to one year each, and it is clear that the result is good. But this obviously can't be done, because it doesn't meet the rational requirements of human beings.

The deep problem reflected in the prisoner's dilemma is that individual human rationality can sometimes lead to collective irrationality – intelligent human beings are cocooned by their own intelligence. ”

"That's a wonderful story!" Gu Yaluo's starry eyes were as light as cold water, and a gentle and calm voice sounded, "Let's not dwell on the bad guys, bad things, and accusations in them. The moral meaning of words such as betrayal. It's just from the perspective of interests. Accusing a companion means not cooperating with a companion. Otherwise it's cooperation. Suppose none of them will plead guilty themselves, because that would have the least benefit.

Obviously, if both people cooperate. The benefits are the greatest. But if one cooperates and the other doesn't, then the collaborator becomes the biggest loser. If it were you, would you choose to cooperate? ”

Gu Yaluo smiled, looked at them softly and said, "Okay." Regardless of whether your choice is to be a dragon or a worm, for this case, foreigners think that it is wise to be a worm in both theory and practice. It's a pleasure. Foreigners are also worms! ”

Lu Haoyi's inquiring eyes didn't make Gu Yaluo feel any oppression, and winked at him playfully!

Gu Yaluo's flat eyes were raised, and a brilliant brilliance quickly flashed from the bottom of her eyes, and her gentle tone sounded a little distant. "In the case of the prisoner's dilemma. The prisoner's choice not to cooperate is justified and optimal from the point of view of his or her own interests. But if we think a little more broadly and include everything in the scope of the evaluation, we will find that the police are the worst in this case. It was the cop who set the rules of the game. In this rule, people are forced not to choose to cooperate. If the rules are changed so that cooperation is most beneficial and least risky, then who would choose not to cooperate?

So we can draw the first conclusion: whether people cooperate or not depends on the specific situation. Or say, environment. In an environment where cooperation is the only way to maximize personal gain, people are willing to cooperate. Otherwise. It is also reasonable for people not to cooperate, but to compete with each other. ”

Lu Haoshan's eyes flashed slightly when he heard this. "At school, I often heard people say that Japanese people have certain good spirits, and one of them is that they are good at cooperation. I am Chinese, and I have the same complex that most Chinese have for the Japanese. Although I know that complex is really a kind of bullshit. But I still quietly paid tribute to the spirit of cooperation among the Japanese. But after listening to what Luo'er said, I realized that there is nothing particularly great about the spirit of cooperation among the Japanese.

This reminds me of another famous assertion of game theory, the Nash equilibrium.

The literal description of a Nash equilibrium goes like this: for a group of policy, if no one decision-maker can change his or her policy to achieve a more favorable outcome for himself, then it is a Nash equilibrium. ”

Looking at their puzzled eyes, Gu Yaluo's elegant face pulled out a smile as light as the moon and said, "For example, playing mahjong is not fancy, the simplest way to play." Even with this simple way of playing, many times we are often faced with situations where we do not know how to play our cards. Sheng Zhang, obviously don't dare to come out, I'm afraid of firing guns, right! It doesn't matter, now we stipulate that everyone plays their cards openly. Everyone knows exactly what other people have in their hands at all times. Everyone is smart and has plenty of time to think about such a simple game. In other words, everyone has enough information and knowledge, and enough time to think, and there will be no mistakes for any reason. So in this case, will there still be mahjong masters? For every play, everyone will have the best choice. The situation at this point is a Nash equilibrium. No one can get a better result by choosing their cards better. In the end, winning or losing depends entirely on the quality of your hand. Of course, probably no one would want to play mahjong like this. This assumes a variety of extreme cases. But in reality, people have been playing games that are 'similar' to such card games, and they are playing a lot of them. ”

"What game?" Gu Zhanyan asked curiously.

Lu Haoyi smiled leisurely, his clear eyes were soaked in a smile and said, "Take our little second brother as an example, there is not much technical content, anyone can do it, we have all experienced price wars, but because we entered the market at the earliest, and followed the supermarket market share." So there is no price war at the lowest level! ”

He then said calmly, "Price competition among peers. If we add some more rules, such as every business pursues long-term benefits, not short-term, or even one-time wins. Every business is transparent, i.e. there is no price secrecy. Every business operates in accordance with uniform legal and ethical rules, such as no one can pay bribes. Well, such a game is a Nash equilibrium. No business can benefit better by cutting prices. Because, if you lower the price, others can also reduce it. In this bidding, you reduce the price and harm the interests of others, then the next bidding, others can also harm your interests in the same way. The result of this is a decrease in the overall price level of the industry as a whole. For one of the specific enterprises, its profit level relative to other enterprises is actually the same as the mahjong game just mentioned, which is still determined by the quality of the cards in its hand. So what are the cards in the hands of a business? That is, the resources of the enterprise. Such as having excellent staff, unique technology, management and product quality, service and so on.

So, if a company is well versed in the above knowledge, will he still engage in a lose-lose or even lose-lose competition such as a price war? At least not for Japanese companies. ”

Lu Haoyi elegantly picked up the glass in front of him, took a few sips lukewarmly, and said indifferently, "Having knowledge of competition can make people see the results of cooperation and competition clearly, so that people are willing to cooperate."

Since it is knowledge, it is something that everyone can learn. What's more, we Chinese are said to be one of the smartest people in the world. So there is nothing great about the Japanese, or that the Chinese can be great. ”

Lu Haoshan pouted and said, "You said so much, just in this piece of land, we are still willing to engage in self-destructive competition such as price wars." ”

Gu Yaluo's cold eyes flickered, and she stopped on the bustling street outside the gate, "Why?" One reason is because of the lack of culture. I don't know that the consequence of such competition is that everyone dies together. This lack of culture refers to the whole. It is useless for a single person to be literate himself. It's like a show meets a hooligan. The hooligans are uneducated and don't know that fighting is punishable, so they fight. But Xiu only knew. But there is no way, because if you don't fight, you will immediately suffer a loss. So you can only fight with hooligans and then sentence them together. ”

"Poof...... Hehe...... everyone pursed their lips and snickered.

Lu Haosi's fair-skinned and moving face had a hint of a sweet smile. "Today's companies don't all pursue long-term profits, and some people's goals are just to get a handful and run. The business behavior of enterprises is not all transparent, and many times how people make a business is a trade secret. Many companies are looking for some kind of competitive advantage that transcends law and ethics. Such as bribery, power investment. Therefore, a price war is not necessarily a lose-lose situation, or a group loss. Therefore, the Chinese people are tired of this, and it is not really a problem with IQ. ”

Lu Hao'er smiled, and her gorgeous eyes became a little dazzling, "Environmental problems are really difficult to solve, but they are the southern oranges and northern oranges, more than 2,000 years." ”

At this moment, the herbal tea shop was extraordinarily quiet, and everyone looked at each other and drew a bottom line for each other's hearts.

"Let's go! It's not early. Lu Haoyi got up and said.

The group stood on the sidewalk, the sun was exceptionally bright, and the people were warm.

In the evening, Lu Haoshan called back, and he would come back later for his classmate's birthday.

Gu Yaluo's mind saw the back of Lu Haoshan and Li Qiuping entering the movie theater together.

This is the first time that a good baby has lied, and absolutely no one doubts it! However, Gu Yaluo did not intend to interfere.

Because spring is coming...... It's just curious that these pictures are in my mind, and there really is no warning, notification, come if you want to.

&*&

In the blink of an eye, it was time for the Spring Fair, and this time it was still Guan Zhiyong and He Zheng who came together.

The things were handed over to Gu Yaluo, and the two of them went to the Spring Fair with Chen Zhaodi and Mu Jianjun to continue to purchase silk fabrics.

Silk scarves and scarves are really good to buy, and silk satin wedding dresses and dresses are also highly sought after by custom-made people.

The purchase of this silk fabric is higher than the year after year.

The duck down business is also very good, and the purchase orders are pouring in like snowflakes, and for the second half of the business, it is necessary to order very early.

This time, a long-term subscription contract was required, so when the contract was signed, Lu Jiangdan had to attend as the legal representative. Later, it will come too. (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you Lan Yu for the monthly ticket!!