This week's stock review is hard to write, and I thought about it for hours but couldn't put it down.

Because from now on, any subsequent judgment is crucial.

Before that, the overall trend of the market was upward, it was easy to judge the trend, and even if the judgment was wrong, it didn't matter, anyway, there was an opportunity to correct it.

But this is no longer the case, and the broader market has made the trend of the week life-threatening. The bull market may end at any time, and no one knows which wave of correction will cause the market to never get up again.

At present, there are two kinds of stock democracy in the stock market, one is heavy and the other is light.

For investors with heavy positions, this week has basically been trapped. So what's the idea behind the duvet cover?

I can say with certainty that more than 90% of the investors who are trapped in the quilt think - cover.

Those who choose to reduce their positions and stop losses may not even be one-tenth.

For customers with light positions, most of the thoughts now are about where to buy the bottom.

Let's not talk about how the market will be in the future, I just want to tell you that the current mentality is to cover the bottom with a heavy position or a light position, and basically lose money in the future.

There is a saying in the stock market called one win, two draws, seven losses, and the seven in this mainly refer to these people.

And most of the people who really make money are born among those who plan to stop losses and those who do not plan to buy bottoms.

Is the stock market high now? Of course high, is there a bubble in the stock market now? There is definitely foam.

Knowing that the stock market is high and there is a bubble, and you still want to cover it and think about people who buy the bottom, in fact, you are no longer speculating in stocks, but betting on how many people are more stupid than you.

Why did the stock market plunge this week? Of course, there are many reasons, but one of the most important is the issuance of Guotai Junan.

The current stock market is no longer the illiterate and semi-literate post-50s and post-60s who were playing, and the real main force in the stock market today is the post-70s and post-80s.

The highly educated post-70s and post-80s generations are not fools, knowing that the stock market is risky, but the return on new shares is so high, who is willing to take risks?

You must know that the issue price of Guotai Junan is 19.71 yuan, with the current hot trend after the listing of new shares, it is almost a sure thing for this stock to rise to 6 or 70 yuan, and it is also a high probability event to rise above 100 yuan.

If Guotai Junan finally rises to 100 yuan, then those who are in the middle of the new stock can earn 80,000 yuan, which is higher than the annual income of most people in China.

Guotai Junan's winning rate is 1.57%, which means that an average of 1.25 million can win one lot, and if you earn 50,000 yuan after winning the lottery, the yield is 4%.

Please note that this 4% is not an annualized rate of return but a weekly rate of return. In fact, it doesn't take a week to freeze the funds.

Next, we will convert the weekly yield into an adult rate of return, let's make it simpler, remove the two golden weeks, multiply it by 50 weeks, and the annualized rate of return of the new stock income will be calculated, 4%*50=200%

That is to say, if in the future, if the Chinese stock market issues a stock like Guotai Junan every week, and the yield of the new market remains unchanged, then as long as I insist on the new market every week, 1 million will become 3 million after a year, and there is still no risk.

Is there anything more cost-effective in this world?

So in this way, it is reasonable that the stock market is falling now.

Of course, if it is only because of new stocks, the market may not fall so hard, but at this juncture, it has encountered a shortage of bank money at the end of June and a recovery in the real estate market.

There are several people around me who have recently bought a house or are planning to buy a house. Oh no, it's not several, it should be in double digits.

Many people around me are old stockholders, with a little money in hand, and they are bottoming out at 2000 points, or they are simply covered from the bull market in 07 to the present.

Old stockholders have a strong sense of risk, have made some money, and feel that it is almost over, and they have begun to withdraw from the stock market, and then use the money they have earned to buy houses.

In fact, I have said so much above just to illustrate one thing, the market funds are starting to tighten.

Earlier, I asked you to pay attention to the interbank rate. In the latest week, the interbank rate soared from 1.01% to 1.26, indicating that the market has begun to run out of funds.

So the next important factor is, does the government still support China's stock market to continue to bullish?

As long as the central bank continues to maintain monetary easing as it has done in previous months, and cuts interest rates and reserve requirements a few more times, there is a high probability that the stock market will rush to 6,000 or even 8,000 points.

But if the central bank's faucet is closed, then today's stock market is likely to be like the rebound driven by 4 trillion funds in 09, how it rises and then falls.

Therefore, in the coming period, market interest rates, housing prices, economic indices, and official remarks will become the key to judging the market outlook.

Interest rates are rising, housing prices are rising, the economy is recovering, and the country is alerting to risks, so this wave of bull market is over, and everyone will clear their positions when they see the rebound.

At present, there is a saying in the market that the country does not want a bull market, but wants a slow bull, so the current market is just that the stock price does not want the stock market to rise too fast.

Indeed, today's stock market, capital, and value can't keep up, and if it grows like before, 8,000 points at most is the limit.

And then, of course, it was a plunge like in '08.

Of course, the country does not want the bull market to end so quickly, there are still many companies that have not been listed, and there is still a lot of money to circle, and even to put it crookedly, the real estate downturn since 2013 has led to a sharp decline in national fiscal revenue, and the state needs to subsidize it from stamp duty.

Unfortunately, all this is destined to fail, and the reason is margin trading.

Leverage is the root of all evil. If there is an angel in the compound interest financial market, then leverage is the devil in the financial market.

Angels are not necessarily cute, but the appearance of demons must be seductive.

Tempt you with leveraged profits first, and then plunge you into the abyss.

You can find that the daily amplitude of the stock market in the last two years has been frighteningly large, even larger than in the early 90s, when there was no price limit.

It is almost commonplace for the stock market to plummet by 100 points in half an hour, and rise or fall by a few percent a day.

And these are all caused by financing leverage.

For those who invest with their own funds, even if they are full, they have fallen by up to 20% in the past week, although they hurt their muscles and bones, but they will not shake the fundamentals, but for the financing disk, the stock has fallen by 20% in a week, which is simply fatal!

So what to do? Only clearance is possible. You can also cover your own funds and exchange time for space.

The most extreme example is that I have two friends, who entered the market at 6,000 points in 2007, and pretended to be dead after being trapped, covering it for eight years, and now they have not only unbundled but also made a lot of profits.

But the financing plate didn't dare to cover it at all, and if you covered it, maybe you would be the next person to report on the rooftop.

If China's stock market really wants to slow down, the first thing is to ban the margin trading and stock index futures markets. With these two leveraged markets, the stock market can only have two options: soaring and plummeting, and there is no option of slow bulls.

Of course, China will not ban margin trading and stock index futures, and will even create more financial instruments in the future, because if the renminbi wants to go global, China's financial market needs to be opened up, and the financial system must be in line with international standards.

In fact, the management does not say it on the surface, but in their hearts they are very aware of the virtue of China's stock market.

Some analysts in the media said that China's stock market will go slow for ten years, and I said phew!

If China's bull market can really last for ten years, it will not take ten years, even if it only lasts for another two years, and the current IPO speed will not be so fast.

Now the number of new shares issued in the Chinese stock market every month is as high as nearly 50! That's the same rate as many other countries in a year. And the scale of the new stock circle is the absolute first in the world.

If there really is a 10-year bull market in the stock market, it is enough for you to issue 10 stocks every month, why are you in such a hurry?

There is only one answer, that is, the Chinese management knows very well that China's bull market will last for another six months to a year at most, so it is necessary to issue as many new shares as possible during this period of time and make as much money as possible.

By the way, China Nuclear Power, which was recently listed, why should this stock be listed?

As we all know, China is a country with poor oil resources but abundant coal resources.

Therefore, the cost of thermal power generation in China is relatively cheap.

As for air pollution, can you eat it? Anyway, young people won't die if they take two breaths of haze, and if they want to die, they will die first. They are dying just to alleviate China's aging population.

If it was in 2007, when China's economy was developing rapidly and power resources were tight, it was easy to understand that China would go public with nuclear power and expand power plants to provide more power.

But now China's economy is sluggish, power demand is growing negatively, and Shanxi coal bosses are about to go bankrupt. Speculating in real estate?

From the perspective of conspiracy theories, there is only one answer, if you don't go public now, the economy will continue to decline in the future, and you will never have a chance to go public.

You can refer to PetroChina, if PetroChina is listed today, don't say 48 fast, 18 is still a question of whether anyone wants it.

That's why the IPO market is now crazy about issuing new shares, because there is no store in this village.

Finally, a word about future operations.

The scale of this bull market is huge, and it should be said that it will not end hastily, after all, it will take time for the main funds to be shipped, right?

Although the stock market has fallen sharply, the trading volume has shrunk, and the main funds cannot be shipped in this kind of market.

Therefore, in the future, it is possible for the market to continue to fall, but it should eventually rebound or even hit a new high.

In fact, more than one trillion new funds will be unfrozen next Monday, and there should be a lot of people who will buy the bottom by then.

So we need to pay attention to one thing, when the market rebounds, will it be the heavyweights or small-caps that will lead the gains?

As I said before, in order to pursue high returns, fund companies have sold heavy stocks and bought a large number of small and mid caps.

You can see that today's banks, as well as the SAIC Motor that I mentioned before, have good performance value and everything, but the plate is a little bigger, and then from this year to now, it has basically seriously underperformed the market.

The root cause is the massive exodus of institutions.

Of course, small- and mid-cap stocks rise more than large-cap stocks in a bull market, but once the stock market goes bearish, small-cap stocks also fall sharply.

Next, if institutions judge that the bull market is coming to an end, they will inevitably sell small-cap stocks and buy back large-cap stocks.

So after the stock market rebounds, if the small-cap stocks rise sharply, the bull market can continue for a while, and if the heavyweights rise, everyone is ready to liquidate their positions. Don't touch stocks for the next 5 years.

No matter how the market goes in the future, but this week's fall, the upward trend has been broken, so it is unfortunate to say that the bull market main wave may end here.

The only question we need to think about in the coming weeks and months is when and how to exit the stock market.

That's all for today, King Qin is dead, and he has something to burn paper......

Well, in the end, I thought of another thing, to make a preview of the next time, the triple top of the ultimate pattern analysis of the bull market to the top......

This book was first published from 17k, the first time to see the genuine content!

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