Back home, Tang Xiao downloaded the Flush Securities market software, carefully checked the market trend of bank stocks, and now he has a certain understanding of K-line charts, etc., and is no longer as ignorant as when he first entered Huaan Securities.

In the land of China, where the agricultural population accounts for the majority, Tang Xiao directly chose the Agricultural Bank of China as his trading target.

After the Agricultural Bank of China paid dividends on July 3, the stock price did not fluctuate significantly in the following ten trading days, until July 24, when it pulled three long white lines in a row, up about 8%, which is not easy for super elephant stocks with a circulation of nearly 300 billion. In the more than 20 trading days since then, the stock price has been showing a volatile downward trend.

Today is August 25th, and the stock price has just fallen below the key position of the 60-day moving average, and the K-line pattern is barefoot yin. The performance of the banking sector index is similar to that of the Agricultural Bank of China, which is technically a drag in the sector, and the overall sector index is held by the 20-day moving average. The Shanghai Composite Index has been showing a volatile upward trend during this period of time, which can be described in one word, that is, the Agricultural Bank of China is extremely weak, weaker than the broader market, weaker than the sector. At this time, the net assets per share of Agricultural Bank of China are about 3 yuan, which belongs to the category of broken net shares, which is lower than 0.5 RMB per share, and there is 20% profit margin according to the net value of 3 RMB. At this time, the biggest negative rumor in the banking industry is the risk of bad debts, and the economic downturn is likely to cause the default or even non-repayment of the loaned assets. The rumors are crazy, Tang Xiao feels that this is just an isolated event, if the risk of bad debts in the bank really breaks out, then the various industries related to it will be difficult to stand alone, there is no doubt that in terms of the current economic operation, the real economy is far from being so pessimistic.

Tang Xiao decided that what he wanted to buy was the A-share shares of the Agricultural Bank of China. It's just that now the stock is technically broken, and under the influence of traders' psychological factors, the stock price still has a certain amount of inertia to fall, and he is ready to wait for a good opportunity. To be a successful hunter, you must be able to withstand temptation, endure loneliness, and act as soon as the time comes, so as to get twice the result with half the effort.

He knows that in the field of financial investment, there is a great enemy, waiting for the prey with a bloody mouth, which is the nature of human beings to "can't help it". As long as there are spare funds in the account, I always like to exchange money for stocks, futures, foreign exchange, and funds, and there is no special reason for it, but I can't help the temptation, I can't control my hands, and I don't pay attention to the timing of the shot. Once the shot is made, there is an eighty percent probability of being trapped, and slowly falling into the pain of waiting for unwrapping or even cutting the flesh; Twenty percent probability of small profits, as soon as you see making money, you are afraid of profit callbacks, and you will close the position and start running with a small profit. Most people are in this cycle, and those who are unlucky will be caught up in cutting meat or blowing up their positions; If you are lucky, you have endured a long period of torture, and as soon as you run after untying, the varieties you trade will soar in your own direction. He endured the torment of pain, but he could not enjoy the solace of victory.

A researcher once did an experiment: between 100% getting $100 and a 50% probability of getting $200 or nothing at all, most people chose 100% to get $100; And between a 100% loss of $100 and a 50% probability of losing $200 and a 50% probability of not having to lose, most people will choose a 50% probability of betting on their luck. This experiment shows that most people, when they get a risk aversion; At the time of loss, it is the risk appetite.

Now that we know it in theory, we must fight against this psychology to the greatest extent.

At this moment, the QQ message prompt sounded, and when I opened it, it was a message from the teacher Liu Yun: "Give you three questions, tell me the answer after thinking of it." ”

Shows that the other person is typing......

"Why does the market go up and down?"

"What kind of people can make money?"

"How to use the left and right side trading method?"

"Just these three, think about it."

As soon as this message was posted, Liu Yun's avatar turned black, leaving no time for Tang Xiao to ask.

Tang Xiao combined what he had learned recently and was seriously thinking about these three questions.

Why does the market go up and down? The rise and fall of prices reflects the struggle between the buying and selling forces of the long and short sides: if you buy more, it will rise; If you sell more, it will fall, which is a reflection of supply and demand. The ups and downs are a kind of expectation. Even if it is an ordinary brick, covered with a red cloth, and you say that it is gold inside, under this expectation, its price is skyrocketing; When the price of it reaches a certain level, someone will put a blue cloth on it, saying that it is a diamond, and its price will soar to a new level...... In the process of such speculation and improvement, there have been people who have been constantly buying, and some people have been selling, and there is no doubt that in the process of rising, all the people who bought have basically made money. But what if one day the expectation of diamonds becomes gold, and the expectation of gold turns around? In the end, excluding the human factor, the price will return to value.

What kind of people can make money: People in the market can be roughly divided into three types: those who are prophetic, those who are late to know, and those who are unaware. For a person with foresight, his skill or luck or other means can enable him to make wise decisions, and in the end he buys low and sells high, sells high and buys low, and gains profit. This kind of person obviously has a strong ability to survive in the market, and has a sense of foresight, buying and selling first. The second type of people are those who are late to the eye, although they themselves do not know what to do, but they know that those who follow the foresight can obtain a certain profit or avoid a certain loss, and as long as the time is right, this kind of person can also make money. The most terrible thing is the third type, unwittingly making money, unknowingly losing money, and unconsciously returning to the pre-liberation period.

The left-hand trading method is a contrarian operation method, actively buying sets. Every time the low is assumed to be the bottom of the market, if there is a new low again, then add m times to buy and open a position in the form of a pyramid. The more it falls, the more it buys, and the more it buys, the center of gravity of the cost keeps falling. Someday, it will reach the real bottom. After the last margin call, wait for the pull-up, and the market value will rise. The right-side trading method is a trend-based operation method, chasing the rise and chasing the strong, killing the fall and killing the weak, and following the trend line movement.

After careful analysis, Tang Xiao gave his own answer.

"Prices rise and fall depending on the power of buyers and sellers."

"Rational people with strong analytical skills can make money."

"Contrarian to the left, to the right."

The financial market is always strong and can survive. There is no god in the market, only winners. Cash is king, success or defeat, no matter how fancy you say, after all, you must accept the test of the market, time is the only criterion to test the truth, is a mule is a horse, walk to be able to know. The movement of the market reflects a probability, and even something with zero probability can happen, once again proving the correctness of Murphy's theorem. For example, if you use an infinitesimal iron ball to throw a flat grid with a side length of one meter, let's say you throw it in the grid every time. Then the probability that you will land on a particular point in each square when you throw the ball is zero, but every time you still have the ball, you will land on a point, which corresponds to the fact that something with a probability of 0 happens all the time. For the market, no matter what theory you have mastered and what kind of prediction method, what it predicts is only a probability, and whether everything will happen or not is not determined by its historical data. Just like when you see a naughty child, it doesn't mean he's a bad boy.

For his teacher Liu Yun, Tang Xiao has never been clear about what type of person he is.

The three questions raised by Liu Yun reminded Tang Xiao of a long-ago topic, that is, "Three Questions Through the Ages": Who am I? Where did it come from? Where to go? The questions are quite simple, and the answers are quite complex. He leaned against the windowsill and looked out the window, pondering the answers to his own age-old questions.