Ten o'clock in the evening.

Tang Bao is still busy in the library, because it is close to the final exam, everyone is busy reviewing, so the library is open to the public all night, and some "hard-working" students dare not relax in order to get credits smoothly, and they are all working all night in the library.

So.

At this point in time, the library is still overcrowded, and it is difficult to find a ......

Tang Bao's establishment of the Chinatown Investment Service Company is not used as a decoration, even if there is no business to come to the door, he has to find something to do.

Thereupon......

Tang Bao wrote the first report in the library overnight to "assess" the financial industry, titled The Potential Crisis of U.S. Savings and Loan Institutions. The headline is bold and straightforward, referring directly to the savings and loan associations and small commercial banks in the United States. It's not that Tang Bao wants to attack them, but in the history of the United States, these savings and loan associations and small commercial banks will indeed have a major crisis.

At this time.

Tang Bao wrote this assessment report, perhaps few people will pay attention to it, and he has no intention of saving the US savings and loan crisis, but he just wants to wait for the crisis to really break out, and someone will find the "accurate" vision of Chinatown Investment Services. At that time, the influence of Tang Bao and Chinatown Investment Services Company will rise suddenly.

The American Savings and Loan Association, founded in the 30s of the 20th century, is a non-bank financial institution that specializes in savings business and home mortgage loans under the support and supervision of the U.S. government. The Savings and Loan Association takes short-term savings deposits from the public and uses the money to provide local homebuyers with 20- and 30-year mortgages at fixed interest rates for the duration of the mortgage. There are thousands of such savings and loan associations with mutual assistance throughout the United States, and the dream of millions of Americans to buy houses has also come true.

However.

With the rise in inflation and market interest rates in the United States, the Savings and Loan Association has also ushered in a nightmare. The interest rate on the loans it issues is fixed, and rising inflation and market interest rates mean that it makes less profit and loses money when it is higher than the lending rate.

It's unfortunate.

The American Savings and Loan Association now has a negative mortgage rate, and the interest rate on the home mortgage is about 6%, while the savings and loan association has to pay more than 10% interest rate to the users of the savings deposit. This resulted in huge losses for the Savings and Loan Association.

In the early 80s, the Savings and Loan Association had a loss of more than $50 billion.

In order to promote the savings and loan associations to return to a profitable state, the U.S. Congress and the Federal Housing Loan Bank Board have successively taken a series of measures to relax the restrictions on the savings and loan associations, allowing them to enter the real estate, securities, insurance and other fields to compete with other commercial banks.

Pity.

The savings and loan associations, which have been under the protection of the U.S. government for a long time, do not have the quality to engage in high-risk investments, coupled with the government's lax supervision and internal management chaos, the final result is a large number of bad debts, huge investment losses, and even fraud.

It can be said that the Savings and Loan Association has fallen into a quagmire and is unable to extricate itself...... And the U.S. government doesn't know it.

Call.

The first time he wrote a market analysis report, Tang Bao referred to the template, which was also a little rusty, but the central theme he expressed was very clear.

"Nick, go back and rest, you don't have to be with me." Tang Bao raised his head, moved his sore wrist slightly, and saw that Nick was holding a magazine and flipping it boringly, so he asked him to go back. At this point in time, he didn't have anything to order.

"Uh, boss......"

"It's okay, just go back and rest early, I'll go back to the dormitory by myself after I finish writing, you have nothing to do here." Tang Bao said with a smile.

At this time.

Staying in the library to read books is basically preparing for the exam, and Nick is sitting in it holding an entertainment magazine, flipping through it non-stop, which is indeed a bit dazzling.

"Alright, boss, I'll go first." Nick Dow.

"Hmm."

Tang Bao answered, and then devoted himself to writing the report again.

Since he was writing a business market analysis report, in order to be convincing, Tang Bao also had to collect some data to support his arguments.

Just saying that the American Savings and Loan Association is going to collapse is not convincing.

So.

Tang Bao listed several major factors to illustrate the erosion of the American Savings and Loan Association.

First of all.

Many savings and loan associations invest in the oil sector, and in the past two years, oil prices have been sluggish due to various factors, and investors involved in oil investment have incurred losses. A few years ago, when oil prices were rising, the bold savings and loan associations made a lot of profits from oil investment, but now that oil prices have plummeted, it will be a disaster for savings and loan associations that lack risk prevention. This is especially evident in Tennessee, where they put their depositors' money into the oil and energy sector at a time when oil prices were high, and it's not hard to imagine how much they lost on that investment.

To be more convincing, Tang collected examples of more than a dozen savings and loan associations in Tennessee that had fallen into losses for their oil investments.

Secondly.

The government eased restrictions on savings and loan associations, and savings and loan associations flocked to the securities market in high-risk areas. In October this year, there happened to be a stock market crash that made investors desperate, and the Savings and Loan Association was not immune to this stock market crash. When the market is good, they make a lot of money, and when the market turns sharply, they will also fall into the quagmire. According to the relevant news reports collected by Tang Bao, there are more than 100 savings and loan associations in various localities that have suffered serious losses in the stock market crash.

Third.

That is, the real estate industry has loomed into crisis, and the role of the savings and loan association is to assist the government in implementing housing policies and helping people get housing mortgages. However, since the government loosened its grip on the Savings and Loan Association, the Savings and Loan Association has plunged headlong into the lucrative real estate market. They invest heavily in real estate, and even hold real estate enterprises, making huge profits. This has greatly improved the profitability of many savings and loan associations, but there is an immeasurable crisis, and the savings and loan associations are too deeply involved in the real estate market, and once housing prices fall, it may be their end.

California is investing the most in the real estate sector, and unfortunately, they are putting their savers' money into an already overheated real estate market.

If something goes wrong in the U.S. real estate industry, California's savings and loan institutions face a disaster.

One last point.

As a regulator, the Federal Housing Loan Bank Supervisory Board, which has an inextricable interest in the Savings and Loan Association, has not done its job as a regulator.

End of report.

Tang Bao unceremoniously claimed that the American Savings and Loan Association has been eroded, and a savings and loan crisis affecting the United States may break out at any time, and the fuse of the crisis is very likely to be the real estate market in the United States. The moment house prices fell, it was the day the crisis erupted.

The U.S. government had better sincerely pray to their God that housing prices will stabilize, or they will end up in a big quagmire.

"Ah......h

"Huh?"

Tang Bao was interrupted by an exclamation.

"I'm sorry, Don, I didn't mean to snoop on anything. However, I did see what you wrote, is the Savings and Loan Association really as unbearable as you say? John asked in surprise as he stood behind.

"Maybe it's worse than I expected." Tang Bao said that anyway, he wrote this market assessment report to release it for people to see, and John looked at it, and he didn't care at all.

"......"

Seeing that Tang Bao didn't mind what he saw, John breathed a sigh of relief at the same time, but also a little depressed, he is an economics major, and the tutor once gave them an analysis of the current situation of the Savings and Loan Association, according to the mentor's words, although the Savings and Loan Association is facing difficulties, but since the government has loosened the restrictions, it will keep up with the pace of the market and become an excellent institution.

The opposite view of Tang Bao and his mentor is that it is precisely because the government has loosened its grip and relaxed its regulations that it has sent the Savings and Loan Association to hell.

Who's right?

On one side is his mentor, a well-known expert in economics; The other is Tang, although he is not an economics major, but his performance on Wall Street is enough to show that Tang Bao has a very accurate vision.

Then.

John was confused, he didn't know who to believe.

"Hey, I think so much useless for what, whether the Savings and Loan Association is good or bad, it doesn't have much to do with me at the moment......" John simply stopped thinking about it.

Oh.

John suddenly thought of the purpose of his coming to find Tang Bao, and mysteriously attached to Tang Bao's ear and said, "Don, look over there...... Lee was there. ”

Tang Bao followed the direction of John's finger and looked, and sure enough, a beautiful figure sat there quietly.