"In the modern history of the world, the Western powers wantonly carried out colonial expansion, competing to plunder weak countries and regions, carve up spheres of influence, and build colonial empires. Among them, the British Empire was the largest, with its territory accounting for about 1/4 of the world's territory and 1/4 of the world's population on the eve of the outbreak of World War I. France also had large overseas colonies. But the later Germany occupied fewer colonies. The development of the great powers was uneven, and the later countries demanded a re-division of their spheres of influence as their strength continued to increase; In order to safeguard their vested interests, the old powers have tried their best to consolidate their existing advantages. "Although the board book is not chic enough, it is horizontal and vertical, and there is charm in fortitude.

"The formation of two blocs of great powers prepared the conditions for the outbreak of this European war. On May 20, 1882, Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy signed the Triple Alliance Treaty in Vienna, the core of which was to support each other in a future war. In 1894, France signed a military agreement with Russia against the Central Powers, stipulating that in the event of an attack by the Central Powers, especially Germany, the other country would immediately support and fight against Germany. At the beginning of the 20th century, Britain abandoned the policy of "glorious isolation" and actively formed alliances, signing the Anglo-French Agreements and the Anglo-Russian Agreements with France and Russia in 1904 and 1907 respectively. So far, Europe has formed a posture of the "Triple Alliance" against the "Triple Entente". Students, this is the fundamental reason why what was originally the contradiction between Austria-Hungary and a small country Serbia has turned into a war between almost all the European powers in the world, in a word, it is that the cake is unevenly divided, and someone is going to lift the table" The young lecturer's words made the young students and officers below burst into laughter, but the old men sitting in the back row did not laugh, but they also showed approving looks. When the bell rang for the end of class, the students of the Youth Cadre Academy stood up together with the officers who were observing, bowed and watched the lecturer leave, and several old people in the back row had also quietly left.

"Elder Duan, what do you think of what this young man said?" Walking in the middle was Xu Shichang, who was in charge of half of the country's government affairs, and Xu Lao asked, needless to say, it was Duan Qirui and General Staff Duan who could be parallel to him.

"Speaking in simple terms, if it is his own opinion, it can be regarded as a rare talent. However, it is still a bit biased and not comprehensive enough. "Duan Qirui is also a long shirt today, he is not wearing a military uniform, a rare day off, and it is also a good holiday to relax with the original Beiyang old friends.

"Oh, Zhiquan has something to say, and the old man will listen to him."

Duan Qirui waved his hand, "It's not my opinion, Xu Lao knows me, except for the military, I don't know much about political right and wrong, but the general seat is far-sighted, and when I saved my wife Wu ten years ago, I had deduced today's European situation, at that time I couldn't believe that Prussia, which had just experienced the Franco-Prussian War and was unified, could have the ambition to challenge Britain and France, and now it seems that the four words of the general seat are really to the point." ”

"I want to hear about it."

"I had to fight."

"Well, have to fight?" Xiong Bingsan on the side twisted his beard and muttered, "Yes, if I am the emperor, I am afraid that I will have to fight now." ”

"Yes, there is a chance to win the bet. Without a fight, even Austria-Hungary, an ally, would turn its back on Germany, and then the embattled Germany would be powerless even if the overlord was alive. Britain proposed the world's first navy and locked the key areas of the North Sea, the German navy had no way to crisscross the seas, there was no colony without a navy, and Germany without a colony could not afford to continue to use the industrial and agricultural scissors difference to give full play to its own national industrial advantages, and the surrounding France and Russia were Germany's mortal enemies in the east and west, and the direction of Germany's land expansion was only north and south, and Scandinavia was located in the middle of nowhere, inaccessible and of little value. In the south, it will fight to the death with Italy and Austria-Hungary, and at that time, both Italy and Austria-Hungary will unite with France and Russia against Germany, and Germany will not be able to defeat the coalition forces of several countries on land when it exhausts its national strength. Not wanting to be suffocated alive in the circles of Central Europe, Germany had no choice but war. Duan Qirui analyzed, "At that time, I thought I was familiar with Germany, so I played the role of Germany and confronted the British, French, and Russian coalition forces under the command of the General Seat, and Austria-Hungary was also assigned to my side, and Italy was neutral." Just like today's situation. But I fought really hard, and it was an undefeated situation, and if William really used my strategy, he would only be exhausted and surrender in the end. However, the head office changed to Germany and came up with a clever plan, hey, in vain I have studied in Germany for many years, and I have not seen through the strategy that the German army has been using. ”

"What strategy?" Although he knew that Duan Zhiquan was selling Guanzi, Lao Xiong still asked very interestingly, he is really a qualified actor.

"I can't say specifically, anyway, on the one hand, the truth is mixed to confuse the opponent and concentrate superior forces to attack the enemy, and on the other hand, it is to lure the enemy deep and close the door and fight the dog. If it really succeeds, Britain and France may be forced to make peace. ”

"This is the military strategy of the head seat?" Xu Juren didn't believe that this was the opinion of the general seat, he always felt that the general seat was super first-class in making money, and the employment was also super first-class (otherwise how could he be under Wu Chenxuan?). ), politically he is also an excellent politician, but militarily, except for a few times leading the army to battle, he is specifically commanded by the generals below, and it seems that he has never heard of any superhuman military talent in the general seat?

"The general seat said that this was the plan of the previous German chief of the general staff, Field Marshal Schlieffen, but it is a pity that since the start of the war, Moltke's command has been full of tricks, and I am afraid that it will not be able to give full play to the subtleties of Schlieffen's plan." Duan Qirui sighed and didn't want to mention it again. Although he studied in Germany and had some good feelings for the German army, China was destined to stand on the side of the victors, so it was inevitable that he would meet the German soldiers at that time.

"Old Xu, General Staff Duan, Old Xiong, such a coincidence." Looking at Wu Chenxuan, who had just walked in from the school gate, several old brothers were happy, but they didn't expect that the main seat of Shenlong, who usually saw the head and the tail, actually came to this Qinggan Academy.

"So, what are you?" After the greetings, General Counselor Duan asked. Seeing that there were only two guards and Du Niang behind Wu Chenxuan, and Wu Chenxuan, who was wearing a suit and tie, didn't seem to be here for recreation.

"I owe Lao Cai a course, and I was forced by Lao Cai to go to my house to ask for debts, and I went to Shandong University in the morning to give an open lecture. Thinking that the military cadets of our group are also attending big classes in the Qinggan Academy, anyway, the mountain chiefs of the Qinggan Academy and the Zaolin Military Academy are all mere districts, so don't favor one over the other, let's talk about it together. ”

"Oh, dare I ask what the topic of the lecture is?"

"It is an analysis of the causes of this European war."

"Ah, hahahaha." The three elders laughed freely, which made Wu Chenxuan a little confused, he used to give lectures often, and he didn't know what was funny. After the third elder finished laughing, he explained that the lecturer in the international politics class in the morning had already talked about the causes and ends of the current war in Europe, so if Wu Chenxuan explained this, it seemed that he was singing against the young lecturer, and he didn't know what the other party would be afraid of. Wu Chenxuan, who knew the truth, couldn't help but smile bitterly, some hit shirts and some faces, but I didn't expect to meet a class in the sixth year of the Republic. But after all, since they came, naturally they couldn't have killed the mistake and didn't let it go, and several old people continued their great cause of skipping classes.

"On the whole, this European war is a struggle for hegemony between the great powers, and at a deeper level, it is a product of the development and evolution of capitalist society in which private ownership is the dominant position. For centuries, the Western powers vigorously pursued overseas colonial expansion, following the jungle rules of capitalism. This European war is the product of the extreme development of this jungle rule, which is the fundamental reason for the outbreak of this war. Of course, there are other factors that led to the outbreak of the European War.

First, there was a lack of a relatively smooth international communication and consultation mechanism between major powers at that time. Several major powers in the world can do whatever they want, but when several top powers find that their contradictions have become irreconcilable, there is no widely accepted way to communicate and coordinate, and the two sides lack a mechanism for mutual communication, which leads to the repeated escalation of contradictions and the loss of the opportunity to step on the brakes at the last moment.

Second, both warring sides underestimate each other's strength and overestimate their own. Sun Tzu said: "The husband who does not fight and the temple is considered the winner, and the one who does not fight and the temple is not victorious, and the one who is not victorious must be counted as less." More wins, less wins, and nothing counts! It is a pity that neither Germany nor Austria, nor Britain, France and Russia have really achieved objective knowledge of themselves and their opponents, so it has led to blind optimism in the war. For example, in the summer of 1913, Kaiser Wilhelm II repeatedly threatened with the leaders of the Austro-Hungarian Empire: "As long as I am with you, no other country will be concerned." The underestimation of the opposing side's strength was also manifested in the fact that both sides initially believed that victory would be achieved soon and were not mentally prepared for a protracted trench war.

Third, some major powers and countries are excessively arrogant and brazenly demand to compete for spheres of influence and dominate the world, thus intensifying the contradictions among the great powers. Germany, in particular, made no secret of its expansionist policy. At the end of the 19th century, Germany began to pursue a "world policy". German public opinion agitated for hegemony and was aggressive, declaring that "we must also claim our own territory under the sun." Germany's "world policy" and Britain, the "empire on which the sun never sets", inevitably clashed. The final solution of this contradiction is bound to be war, and it is a national war that will never stop fighting.

Fourth, Germany misjudged the international situation. Germany thought that Britain would not go to war against itself for Serbia. Scholars' research revealed that Britain was trying to induce Germany to start a war, to make Germany take responsibility for the war, and to defeat Germany, a rival with growing national power. At the critical juncture when Austria-Hungary was preparing to attack Serbia, Russia and France were preparing for war. Britain told Germany that it would prevent war between the great powers as much as possible, and declared that it would do its best to "prevent a storm" in the event of a dispute. In fact, when Russia and France went to war with Germany, Britain immediately declared war on Germany. From this point of view, the second brother Wei was still played by his Anglo-Saxon cousins.