1.28

With the trouble of bearishness, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are stumbling today.

The markets of the two cities both opened sharply lower and bottomed out, although they once rebounded to near the flat, but the end of the market finally fell back.

As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index barely found temporary support at the 3,300-point integer mark. Dragged down by the market, the once strong entrepreneurship, the small and medium-sized board index did not resist the last hour! Double Closing Yin......

3400 to 3250 Cabinet Enchantment, Ongoing!

On the disk, although the index has adjusted more, there are still more than 40 stocks on the daily limit.

Among them, cultural media, port expressway, papermaking and other top gainers. Aerospace and military industry, big finance, oil, Internet, coal, etc. were among the top decliners.

In terms of individual stocks, I don't know if the bookmakers of Guodong Construction are really looking at our stock fairies today. I just wrote about the beginning of the stock fairy. The stock price of Guodong Construction in reality directly increased along the resistance of yesterday's 20-day moving average, bucking the trend.

Today, my customer group, several book friends in the book friend group said to me respectively: "I wanted to make a price difference in the morning, I saw a breakthrough and chased it directly, and I was still thinking afterwards, I was almost eighty percent of the position." Is the position too high? What if I turn around......"

"As soon as I saw the breakthrough, I immediately pounced on the tour capital! Li Da is mighty! ”

At that time, I just suggested that you should control your positions against the trend. Don't fill your warehouse. The instability of the broader market is the key.

However, I would like to congratulate all of you on the construction of the national building. Under normal circumstances, everyone's good day should come!

Mention that Dr. Peng, mentioned in the 1.26 stock review, suggested that profits should be in the pocket, and after today's sharp fall, wait for the inertia to hit and enter the dip.

Let's talk about the new Peng shares that have been talking recently, as scheduled to cross the 9 yuan mark in the intraday contrarian rise nearly 4%, the later period continues to be bullish, the goal: always fooling our retail investors in the half-year line!

Danhua Technology pulled out at the same time is slightly disappointing! Thankfully, it is above the 20-day moving average. It is recommended to pay attention to the support strength on the premise of controlling the holding position. "If you control the position," it is not recommended to reduce the holdings. After all, the enchantment at the bottom of the box is not far below.

Let's talk about the technical side:

Today, I deliberately looked at the hourly chart of the Shanghai market. Most of the indicators show that there is still downward momentum in the short-term correction; And not to mention being in the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, the failure to impact the central shaft may lead to continuous selling pressure!

That is to say, two hours after the opening, if you can't hit the volume again. Then the box spell is down to the 3250 line, and it is close at hand!

Just like someone asked me why the market fell, I replied: It's 3,004.

Now that we are on the lower rail of the box, what are we going to do? Buying the dip?

Wrong!

Wait for him to consolidate, or wait for him to increase the volume!

Half-position control, just so capricious......

Why? Let's talk about the news:

Following the sharp contraction of "two financing" financing, banks will tighten umbrella trust funds;

The news of the RMB exchange rate falling to the limit has triggered market concerns about the depreciation of the RMB and the outflow of foreign capital out of China, affecting the bullish sentiment. However, judging from the actual trading situation of the actual foreign exchange market, this news may be misinterpreted by the market, and the adverse impact on the stock market is far less serious than people think;

The resumption of margin trading inspections by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is a major reason for the accelerated decline in late trading today. However, after-hours warrants. Supervise. The meeting immediately told the media that on January 16, the meeting had informed the market of the on-site inspection of the financing business of 45 brokerages.

According to the overall arrangement, from February 2 to 16, on-site inspections will be carried out on the financing business of the remaining 46 companies, which is a daily regulatory work and should not be over-interpreted.

How it works:

Just now in the text to prompt. The Shanghai Composite Index will fluctuate in the 3250-3400 box this week.

Strong support is expected around 3280, while 3250 is a strong support.

There's a lot to be said in the previous article. The last thing I want to say is an important issue: I have used short positions many times recently, and the word is so willful to stimulate everyone who holds full positions and has no choice but to follow the trend.

The purpose is nothing more than to make everyone have a certain sense of risk.

Especially in the range of such an index box oscillation.

You should set up a criterion: capital preservation first, value-added second. If you are the kind of friend who is not bad for money, full of warehouses, full of warehouses. I have nothing more to say.

But you keep half of your money in your hands and learn to control your position. The above-mentioned Guodong construction is also good, and Xinpeng shares are also good. Or maybe it's the uncompetitive Danhua technology. If the box spell rebounds, you can attack, retreat and defend!

You don't need to learn to control the position, you just need to control your heart!

Please be kind to your own funds......

1.29

Overnight, the U.S. stock market and international oil prices continued to plummet, and the domestic negative continued.

Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes both opened lower, and then spent a whole day deducing a low-level shocking trend.

The Shanghai Composite Index even gapped, falling below 3,300 points. Although the GEM index fell slightly, it also fell by 1%. Soberly, the GEM index firmly stood at the 1,700-point mark.

On the disk, most of the weighted sectors performed poorly today, especially banks, brokerages, and big finance led the decline in the weighted sectors.

Although there are many index adjustments, there are still as many as 49 stocks on the daily limit, indicating that the market sentiment is acceptable. Electricity, Internet, online loans, nuclear energy, wind energy and other sectors are among the top gainers!

The reason why the power sector led the rally was mainly reported by relevant media reports: the merger between China Power Investment and State Nuclear Power has been signed and approved by the high-level. At present, the SASAC is formulating a specific plan and will announce the merger plan.

CPI is one of the five largest power generation groups in China and one of only three holders of nuclear power plant operating licenses in China, with listed companies including Kyrgyzstan, Shanghai Hai Power, CLP Yuanda and Zhangze Power.

All the limits, reasonable and somewhat unexpected.

In the afternoon, Shaogang Songshan rose in a straight line to seal the daily limit to drive the overall steel plate to rise, but in the end, except for Shaogang Songshan, most of the remaining steel stocks rose and fell, and before the close of the China Pacific Insurance also once rose, but the rest of the insurance stocks were indifferent. What does the weakening of plate linkage mean?

The eldest of the Li family believes that the revolution has not yet succeeded, and comrades still need to work hard!

At this point, I was asked by a book friend in the group of immortals. Can I make a margin call tomorrow? What to buy!

It just leads the topic to the technical side:

Today's gap gap was not filled, and the daily candlestick showed a death fork, and the index closed out of the standard shrinking doji.

Friday, the last trading day of January, considering that the market has adjusted a lot in just three trading days, it was originally expected that it would take four to five trading days to hit the lower track of the box curse. I didn't expect it to come so quickly!

However, the possibility of a bad weekend is unlikely. In addition, today when I was communicating with book friends in the group of immortals. Screenshot prompt before closing, and speak: I see 2350!

After that, I suddenly remembered to buy electric words. Lowered his head and got Alipay. I thought that the market would still be tossing and turning. But as soon as I looked up, I typed a sentence in the group: Do you want to do this, the market will rise by more than a dozen points if you pay an electricity bill?

Although it is a joke, I still want to say: the 2350 box large magic spell support is strong. 2350 touched this point intraday today, and the index was pulled up by many parties. What the reasons are, will be analyzed later. Then talk about tomorrow......

It is expected that there will be a reversal to make up for the small gap in early trading tomorrow. Since the Doji did not increase its decline today, there is still a technical opportunity to vigorously reverse and cover the gap. Thus liberating the death fork that will be formed on the fifth and tenth days of the disk.

Once a death fork is formed, there is at least a week of adjustment. The bulls don't mean at this time that the box curse can't be recited......

One more hint: because the board is not as strong as in the previous period. It has been described just now, and I will not repeat it. It is not expected that it will bottom out immediately this time, and it has been adjusted for three trading days, and the adjustment may continue, and it is possible to usher in a "real" box reversal next week! Can regain the upward trend!

While doing my homework in the early hours of the morning, I noticed a few messages:

3 billion overseas funds in the last half hour through the Shanghai Stock Connect to grab A shares! The eldest son of the Li family is suspicious: Could it be that he watched 3250 and went down the mountain to pick peaches?

Joke, but it's always a plus!

Secondly: foreign power said that Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect will be opened in the second half of the year, which is conducive to the inclusion of A-shares in MSCI. This news is always spreading, but in this position, it is a heart booster after all!

Of course, you can't report good news and bad news:

The China Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a document to supervise the insurance asset management business and plans to carry out an inspection of insurance and capital financing!

This is a blow to the bull market on the tip of the bar......

However, when I was doing my homework, I also found a problem: Uncle Li recently gave a series of investment hotspots.

First of all, the integration of state-owned assets and the posture have become the highlight of 2015.

The second is the strategy of going out, and we have been taking everyone to do nuclear power since the middle of last year. For example, Zhongke Technology, the layout in the middle of the year, has experienced consolidation, shocks, and pull-ups. Profitable!

(Shouting in the air: Money-earning relatives, who invited me to eat a bowl of fried noodles!) ）

After the end of the recent shock. At present, there is a breakthrough box, and then continue the brilliant posture. You don't have to settle in the bag for the time being!

Secondly, the concepts of high-speed rail, equipment, building materials, and telecommunications are actively promoted by Uncle Li's real economy. The sea is changing, all heroes, you sing and I will appear!

The concepts of the Belt and Road, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Economic Belt are emerging one after another.

These key points, as long as you are patient, you will not be too bad in this year's income!

The noon comment was sent to the group, which wrote: "Looking forward to the afternoon, maintain the judgment of the big magic of the box in recent days, and believe that the Shanghai Composite Index will be tossing and turning in the small box at 3250-3400 points this week, and the lower edge of the box has strong support at 3250 points. But it must be done under the premise of controlling the position! ”

Operationally: the concept of noon remains unchanged! Or emphasize a sentence, the position control in about half a position is the king, advance can be attacked, retreat can be defended!

2.1

For the week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.22%. It ended the previous weekly 9 consecutive Yang Megatron trend. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.75% in January. also ended the previous monthly line 8 consecutive yang!

On the other hand, the SME index fell by 0.16%, and the ChiNext index fell by 0.98%, both of which were much smaller than the Shanghai Composite Index.

In the recent stock fairy commentary, Li Jiadaer repeatedly pointed out that 3400 points and 3478 points will not be easily overcome in a short period of time, and the market will temporarily top.

And it is also clearly pointed out that this week: the main operating range of the Shanghai Composite Index is 3250-3400 points.

Looking back, the Shanghai Composite Index has a high of 3,390 points this week. The low was 3210 points.

I dare not say that the prediction is 100% correct, but it is also considered to be the best of ten.

At that time, I opened the summary of the mainstream media, and watched the mainstream public opinion say that the Shanghai Composite Index was about to win 3478 points. Brother against the majority of the market, slightly forward-looking prediction that the market will temporarily peak at 3400 points. At this point, the brother is a little arrogant in his heart.

After all, we have grasped the general trend and reminded everyone to control the position and operate the half-position. In the end, it is at most a matter of earning more and earning less. I said at the beginning of the review: When you come to the stock market, the first thing to ensure is that the principal is not lost! The second is to make as much money as possible.

I remember that around New Year's Day, the brothers expected the largest technical pressure on the Shanghai Composite Index in the first quarter at 3478. This remark is almost contrary to the voice of clamoring to cover the blue chips at that time, and the future bull will not change!

Some people shouted: In the future, when the great power will rule the world. As I pointed out, the main post-New Year's opportunity is in the ultra-bearish and thematic small- and mid-cap stocks. "Grasping small amplification" was criticized by some people at the time!

Now look at what happens after New Year's Day if you're full of heavyweights. Then it's normal to lose 20% now.

If you buy small- and mid-cap stocks that fell sharply in December, it's fairly easy to make a general profit of 10 to 20 percent.

The difference between one positive and one negative does not seem to be counted.

For next week's broader market, after the close of trading on Friday, and on Sunday afternoon.

In the group of stock fairies, the method of technical analysis has been interpreted to the group friends.

The stock commentary continues to repeat:

As the SFC continued to open the IPO gate over the weekend, it was counted at night, 24 ......

That's 2 more than the 22 last time. It is expected to be somewhat deterrent to the market! But on the other hand, with the Chinese New Year approaching, it is unlikely that the market will continue to plummet.

In recent days, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by nearly 200 points in one go, falling below the lower edge of the 3250-3400 point box curse I analyzed before. It is close to the 3200-point integer mark, which is also where the 34-day line is located.

That is: I think it will be similar if it goes down at the beginning of next week, for example, if it falls to around 3170 points. (The group has been explained and drawn from the technical side.) Book friends who are not there can download lecture records from the group share. ）

I came up with a protective pad concept: that is, the limit position should be a few points slightly below the 3000-point integer mark. This is the last layer of two protective pads!

This point is also the location of the 55-day moving average of the Shanghai Composite Index, and you can find support and resistance without mentioning the moving average. It's all clear. The magic point has also been demonstrated during the exchange. This is also the last line of defense, broken ...... Then two thousand eight goodbye!

In my opinion: unless there is a bigger bearish, it will be difficult to fall to 3000 points! That is, it was prompted during the exchange, and there is a high probability that it will be supported above 3170 points. After the opening of the market on Monday, it will rise to a high probability!

In other words: the short-term adjustment of the market is nearing the end, and it may stabilize and rebound next week.

Key reminder: After bottoming out, it does not mean that the market will rise sharply and re-attack 3400 points! As in the past. Most of the longs and shorts before the holiday have no intention of fighting, and the volume of spring ** will show a gradual shrinkage. This has been the case even in a few bull runs!

Therefore, raise the weight again! I think that except for the occasional plate rotation accident, it is difficult to see a large-scale upward attack! The opportunity is mainly also in the small and medium-cap theme stocks!

Document No. 1: The first document released in 2015 once again focused on agricultural issues, highlighting the status of the "three rural" areas as the "top priority" for China. The document mainly revolves around the two major issues of accelerating agriculture and land circulation. The income varieties are expected to be three varieties of seed industry, agricultural machinery, and land transfer! It can be deducted from the topic of early stock review speculation.

In terms of individual stocks, it only prompts Danhua Technology, which is recommended on the premise. After the close of trading on Friday, the company announced that the 2014 results were pre-earned, so it is expected to stabilize and rebound next week. The stock's mid-term doubling target remains unchanged, everything is moving in the best direction, and its target price will be far more than the doubling expectation of $15, which is left for future verification.

In terms of positioning: maintain last week's view unchanged! The overall control is less than 60%. Flexibility is king!

2.2

Affected by the intensive negative news over the weekend, the two markets opened sharply lower in early trading.

On Monday, there was no expected bottoming rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index gapping lower and then maintaining a narrow range around 3,150 points. Financial stocks plummeted across the board, narrowing the decline near midday, but fell back again in the afternoon, dragging the stock index to a new low of the day!

However, the small and medium-sized ChiNext index rose in early trading, although it gradually fell back in the afternoon. But the overall "small" is much stronger than the "big"!

The only thing that is gratifying is that the index fell Monday. However, the "moving average" support, one of the protective mat concepts exchanged in the two stock fairy groups over the weekend, was able to resist the decline of blue chip stocks.

Let's talk about the technical side: the Shanghai Composite Index continues to show a situation of increasing and accelerating decline. Panic is rife.

But this often becomes a signal of a historical bottom.

After a period of decline, most indicators have released their risks well. At present, the values of all indicators have entered the bottom zone. above

The weekly line of the market rose by as much as 35%, and such a rapid rise is bound to have a rapid pullback. It has long been expected before, and it has been repeatedly emphasized in stock reviews to control positions and stay away from cannibalistic blue chips. However, there are still many people chasing banks and brokers, and they are covering up big blue chips. The saddest thing is that many people chased the "big stick bones" represented by PetroChina. Alas!

The previous stock index shrinkage to a new high has hinted at the risk of blue chips!

Since you are wrong, there is always a chance in the stock market for everyone to correct your mistakes. At present, the short-term adjustment is basically in place. Whether it's group analysis or stock commentary. It has been pointed out many times that the bottom is not far away, and the market always comes in panic and anxiety. It's over in madness!

If this panic and anxiety is not enough, if it breaks three thousand, the index will be two thousand and eight goodbye!

Don't be so pessimistic for the time being, after all, the eldest of the Li family has repeatedly prompted. The market rebound is imminent. But it's also important to remember that the broader market is not going to rise sharply.

The Spring Festival is approaching, the market liquidity will gradually tighten, and history tells me that the market volume will continue to shrink after that. Until the advent of the Spring Festival!

If you are too depressed to read the above arguments, you might as well think about the small amplification of our recent tips.

You've zoomed in and avoided the risk. Caught small? Naturally, the corners of the mouth are curled! Today, when the Shanghai Composite Index fell, Danhua Technology still rose nearly four percent against the trend. But before the market closed, I found a few book friends who bought Danhua Technology in the group of stock immortals. Prompt today's pull-up, tomorrow or there may be adjustments, every high short position, such as tomorrow to continue to attack, the main force is thrown in, tomorrow will fall, and the dip will be replenished!

Control the position, just so capricious!

Talking about Haiyue shares, the V-shaped upward attack track continues. Today's Xiaoyang continues, and the trend does not change!

Let's talk about the construction of Guodong written in the recent novel, and see for yourself......

Let's talk about the news side:

As mentioned earlier, it is small. Thematic investment opportunities remain significant.

A document was officially released yesterday, and some analysts believe that the 2015 document puts food security in an important position, which also means that the important position of the seed industry will be further established.

From the perspective of industry fundamentals, the institutional dividends of the seed industry are being released, and the prosperity has re-entered the upward cycle, and mergers and acquisitions will also make high-quality varieties stand out. Some analysts pointed out that the agricultural sector will usher in a honeymoon period, in which seed stocks will receive higher financial attention. However, today's agricultural stocks seem to be on a good note and shipped quickly.

The stock fairy wrote about the vicious battle between retail investors and market makers. What I want to pass on to everyone is naturally the thinking mode of the banker.

I once said when I opened the book: I have experienced a lot of dealers, and I will show you. I've seen a lot of retail investors. I'll tell you......

The overall increase in the agricultural premise is not high. There's as much profit there as everyone thinks. Compare the ideas of the stock fairy's deduction. Is the main force really borrowing good for shipments? If you have an agricultural pro in your hand, you might as well control the position once, and the routine of the main force sitting in the village is nothing more than a full rise after a sharp fall, and a rapid pull after a fall.

Two ways to summarize all the performance of today's agriculture!

In terms of operation, it is still recommended that you control your position at about 50%. The small-cap stocks in your hand have risen well, so you might as well add one or two percent. Blue chips are not going to go up? You may wish to flexibly control the position of 50%.

Please remember that only when you control the market, can you be capricious!

2.3

On Wednesday, the broader markets of the two cities rose and fell. The Shanghai Composite Index once surged to the 30-day moving average intraday, which can be seen as the vertical line support suggested by the stock fairy group over the weekend. As I said earlier, when support comes down, that's resistance.

However, today's intraday communication with group friends also prompted: Fortunately, the vertical line is oblique. The resistance will gradually increase. Continued trading in more detail below.

Today, relatively speaking, the SME index continues to outperform the Shanghai Composite Index.

On the disk, there are as many as 52 stocks with a daily limit, indicating that market sentiment is still active.

In terms of plates, the steel sector in early trading was stimulated by the strong price limit of Baosteel shares, and the overall increase was the first.

When I saw it, I knew it was going to be over. Recently, the steel market has ended, and the performance of the market is mostly not secondary.

Sure enough, the market jumped in the afternoon.

Recent stock reviews have repeatedly reminded that the optimistic Internet finance sector continues to attack. That's a solid plus.

In the afternoon, the iron boss of China Railway Second Bureau was rich, and his willfulness rose strongly again, and the price limit was blocked. The railway infrastructure sector once rose 3%, but then large finance, coal and other sectors have fallen sharply from the morning high. In the end, the markets of the two cities both closed at the second low......

The trend is reasonable, slightly unexpected. Yesterday's prediction that today's Shanghai Composite Index should be normal and should close a yin or yang doji below the vertical line. I didn't expect the drop to be slightly greater than the judgment.

But if you think about it, I have been repeatedly emphasizing recently that the market has stabilized and will begin to rebound slightly, but the height of the rebound should not be overlooked for the time being. Isn't Wednesday's rally and pullback confirming their views? What's the problem? It seems that there are still undue illusions about the recent market.

A careful analysis is not difficult to find that the market has just stabilized. In particular, once the short-term hedging of too many heavyweight stocks rises, it will inevitably lead to a large number of unhedging funds and meat cutting plates. The market rose and fell back to expectations.

There are large funds shipped out of blue-chip unbundles, so how should we look at the blockbuster benefits on the evening of 2.3?

Let's take a look at the news first.

There were media reports in early trading: on February 3, the purchase amount of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is mainly based on foreign-funded institutions, increased sharply to 3.68 billion yuan, achieving the second successful bottom-buying in the year.

The strange thing about the Chinese stock market is that foreign monks can recite scriptures. (Except, of course, the social security fund of the national team......) The darkness of foreign-funded institutions seems to indicate that there will be big news to be announced in China in recent days.

Sure enough, after 33 months, the central bank's website announced after the close of trading on Wednesday that it would cut the RMB reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from February 5.

At the same time, in order to further enhance the ability of financial institutions to support structural adjustment, increase support for small and micro enterprises, "three rural" and major water conservancy projects, and reduce the RMB reserve requirement ratio by an additional 0.5 percentage points for urban commercial banks and non-county rural commercial banks whose proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises meet the target RRR reduction standard.

The Reserve Requirement Ratio for the Agricultural Development Bank of China will be reduced by an additional 4 percentage points.

Singapore's FTSE A50 futures soared after the central bank's RRR cut, rebounding quickly from a 2% decline to a 3.5% rise. Authoritative financial experts expect that the central bank's RRR cut will release funds of up to 500 billion to 600 billion, which will constitute a blockbuster positive for the stock market and the real economy, especially for finance, real estate, steel, coal and other large blue-chip sectors have a short-term boost.

Note: Experts are talking about a "short-term" boost.

Are the words subtle?

How will the market go on Thursday after the RRR cut? There is a lot of talk in the group of immortals. It can be seen that many people are very concerned.

To recap: according to the performance of the market on the next day of previous RRR cuts, there are ups and downs, and there doesn't seem to be much rule to follow. But one thing is certain, that is, it is a foregone conclusion that a sharp increase will be opened, especially in the directly benefited banking, insurance, brokerage, real estate and other weighted sectors. Opening sharply higher and rushing higher is a high probability event!

Rush high! Yes, rush high! This rush high. I believe that the technical faction will take over, and will gradually understand the blue-chip varieties in their hands.

Retail investors, on the other hand, rushed in with green eyes.

After the surge, I expect the index to fall back. Especially after the stocks in the above-mentioned sectors rose by 5% or even the limit!

The eldest of the Li family believes that it is a wise move to learn from the technical school to be decisive in the short term, and to take a long-term view.

Of course, if we look at the current situation with a strategic eye. The broader market is in the secondary minor correction phase after the first wave of the big bull market at this time. That is, the upward retracement phase of the wave theory. Even if you rush up and down, there won't be much room for falling! The market will soon be in tune.

It's just a blue-chip variety that was trapped in the early stage, and you have to stand guard to change your sentry. However, it is expected that some fresh blood will be injected into the guard this time.

What happens after that? Naturally, it will continue to rise, especially small and medium-cap stocks with better shapes. Like a review of Danhua, Xinpeng, Chang'an, Haiyue, Seagull Bathroom, three-dimensional. As well as a well-adjusted agricultural sector!

Looking ahead, maintain the view of vertical line resistance. It is expected that there will be some pressure in the 3240-3270 point area of the Shanghai Composite Index, and a real breakthrough is expected to have some tossing and turning. Please grasp the opportunity of selling high and then buying low for the short-term impact brought by the huge intraday oscillation of the stock index on Thursday......

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