Chapter 57: The Bretton Woods System
It is impossible for anyone who knows anything about finance not to know that the life of people in later generations is very different from the life of people in this era, and in later generations people live under the petrodollar financial system.
The so-called petrodollar is simply put, that is, the price of international oil is all settled in US dollars, and the development of modern countries is inseparable from oil and energy, and if you want to buy oil, you must use US dollars to buy it, and the currencies of other countries are not good, including the euro in later generations, which is one of the manifestations of US world hegemony.
This is also the fundamental reason why the United States is so keen on the Middle East, the Middle East is the most important oil-producing region in the world, as long as the Middle East is taken, the United States petrodollar can be promoted, the petrodollar does not end for a day, no matter how bad the economy of the United States is, he is the boss of the world, otherwise, he is nothing.
The United States fully supports and supports Israel's-stirring stick in the Middle East, launching two Persian Gulf wars in history and sanctioning Iran, all of which are fundamentally for the core of the petrodollar.
But in this era, the petrodollar system has not yet been fully formed, he is still just a plan on the desk of the White House, and now it is the Bretton Woods system, also known as the gold-dollar system, that supports the operation of the world economy. It is based on the US dollar and gold on the basis of a financial exchange standard, with the US dollar pegged to gold, the currencies of other countries pegged to the U.S. dollar, and a fixed exchange rate system.
One of the biggest characteristics or weaknesses of this system is that it is closely related to the credibility and status of the US dollar, and the US gold reserves are determined by the credibility of the US dollar.
Since the United States entered the Vietnam War in the 60s, it has been mired in wars, with huge fiscal deficits, deteriorating international revenues, and the credibility of the US dollar being impacted, and many dollar crises breaking out. A large amount of capital fled, and countries sold their dollars one after another to buy gold, causing a sharp decline in US gold reserves.
The outbreak of every dollar crisis has brought great harm to the world economy, especially the Hong Kong economy, and the reason is that in addition to the damage caused by the dollar crisis itself, the most important thing is that every time a crisis breaks out, the British will shear the sheep of Hong Kong.
"Old Seven, do you think the dollar crisis will break out again?" With Ling Shizhe's exposition of the Bretton Woods system and the impact of each dollar crisis on the Hong Kong stock market, Ling Zhigao and Ling Shikai also understood what Ling Shizhe meant.
His language is simple and simple, using the refinement of the later generation's summary of the Bretton Woods system, and the two of them listened to the more than half an hour of exposition with relish, and did not feel bored at all.
Ling Shizhe shook his head and said: "It is a sure thing that the dollar crisis will break out again, although the outbreak of each crisis has caused great harm to the Hong Kong stock market, but thanks to the rapid economic development of Southeast Asia and Hong Kong's special geographical location, it can be quickly come out." From this point of view, if the Guo family and others get that piece of land for development, although the dollar crisis can have an impact on them, it will not be very big. What I'm saying is that the Bretton Woods system will be finished, and then there will be an economic crisis around the world, especially in Hong Kong, and the intensity of this crisis will be very high. ”
"How is that possible? The Bretton Woods system could not fall, and the dollar crisis had happened many times, but in 1961, the United States, together with the United Kingdom, Switzerland, France, West Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium, established a gold treasury, with the Bank of England as the agent of the gold treasury, responsible for maintaining the price of gold in London. With so many countries maintaining the dollar and keeping gold prices at bay, how could the Bretton system fall. Ling Zhigao disagreed with Ling Shizhe's statement, in his eyes, the United States is very powerful, as long as the United States does not fall, the Bretton Woods system will not fall, and there are so many countries that support the United States, how can the Bretton Woods system be finished.
But Ling Shizhe completely denied Ling Zhigao's point of view, and retorted: "What happened to the gold treasury? Most of this gold belongs to other countries, not the United States, and if the United States wants to fulfill its promises, it must take out real gold from its own treasury, but does the United States have so much gold to exchange for dollars in the market? The most important thing is that the establishment of the gold treasury also has an important function, that is, to take various means to prevent foreign governments from exchanging dollars for gold in the United States.
You see, one of the important clauses in the Bretton Woods system is that the United States agrees that foreign governments will exchange dollars for gold from the United States, but now, with the establishment of the gold treasury, foreign governments will not be allowed to exchange dollars for gold from the United States.
If that doesn't tell the story, look at the three basic conditions that need to be met to keep the Bretton Woods system running. First, the U.S. balance of payments has maintained a surplus, and the external value of the U.S. dollar has stabilized. Second, the United States has ample gold reserves. Third, the price of gold remained at the official level. You see, which of these three basic principles does the United States meet now? ”
"You're a fallacy, Bretonson......"
"Okay, okay, let's not talk about that piece of land again, why is it related to the Bretton Woods system again, off topic, off topic." Seeing the posture of the two of them about to quarrel, Ling Shikai felt that he was in a circle.
Looking at the two of them, Ling Shikai interjected the topic, turned his head to Ling Shizhe and said, "Old Seven, why do you want us to leak the contents of the plan to the Guo family?" ”
"Leak the contents of the plan to the Guo family and let them build it, the Bretton Woods system will collapse, the Hong Kong financial crisis will break out, and the Guo family will be finished, it's as simple as that." Ling Shizhe also explained to them so clearly, but Ling Zhigao still didn't believe that the gold dollar would fall, and he didn't know how to convince them for a while. As the old saying goes, there is no one in this world who can convince anyone, and the reason why you can persuade is because you say what he wants to believe in his heart, and when you say what he doesn't want to believe, you can't convince him.
Ling Zhigao is like this, he does not believe that the Bretton Woods system will fall, it is based on the fact that the United States will not fall, the United States is very strong now, and it will still be strong in the future, since it is a strong Bretton system, how can it fall?
In Ling Zhigao's point of view, if the Bretton Woods system falls, won't the United States lose its trust in others, and the current international currency is the dollar, and if it falls, then the current dollar will be invalid, and this will not do the United States any benefit.
But he forgot that although the Bretton Woods system was signed by the United States and many countries, and although its advantages have maintained international financial stability in a short period of time, its greatest advantage is that it has greatly promoted the global economic and military expansion of the United States, but now it can no longer help the United States to expand economically and globally, but has become a drag on the United States in the economy, the trade deficit is increasing year by year, the fiscal deficit is huge, and it relies on the issuance of currency to make up for it, which has caused inflation, a sharp increase in the number of domestic unemployed, and an economic downturn. There is a danger of recession.
At this time, the Bretton Woods system for the United States is completely tasteless, it is a pity to abandon it, the United States is now unable to find a new system to replace it for the time being, so it is barely maintained, this maintenance will not be long, once the oil crisis breaks out, the United States will not hesitate to throw it away.
As for saying that after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar will become waste paper, it really happened in history, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States announced twice that the dollar would depreciate, the status of the dollar would decline, trade protectionism would rise, and many people in European countries refused to accept the dollar for a time.
In London, a traveller from New York said: "The banks, the hotels, the shops are the same, and they look like they have the dollars in our hands as if they have become germs." ”
In Paris, taxis are hung with signs that say "No more US dollars", and even beggars have "No US dollars" written on their hats.
It wasn't until the United States saw oil that oil was linked to the U.S. dollar that the world hegemony of the U.S. dollar was redetermined, but the international status of the petrodollar at that time could never return to the golden dollar period of the year, and the foreign exchange reserves of various governments in addition to the U.S. dollar, there were other countries' currencies as the country's foreign exchange reserves, such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, the West German mark, and so on.
These are all things that have really happened in history, every time the dollar crisis broke out, Hong Kong lost more than other countries and regions, and if it wasn't for the British shearing wool from the Hong Kong people, he wouldn't believe it. The outbreak of the oil crisis, the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, followed by the Hong Kong financial crisis, which occurred in 73 years, dealt a considerable blow to Hong Kong's economy, no less than the heavy blow to Hong Kong caused by the Southeast Asian economic crisis in later generations, even if the mainland is now closed and Hong Kong's special geographical location is still taking three to five years to recover.
Ling Shizhe's idea is to build on the basis of the financial crisis, pit the Guo family, as long as the content of the real estate development plan is leaked to the Guo family, as long as they know the content of the plan, if the Guo family can't stop it, he will inevitably go all out to take this piece of land and eat it for development, such a large piece of land, not two or three years to get it, before and after not five to seven years, don't think about it, in this world, as soon as the Hong Kong economic crisis breaks out, the Guo family will inevitably be finished, and it may become history. That piece of land will inevitably be repossessed by the bank for re-auction, and at that time in Hong Kong, everyone was too busy to take care of themselves because of the economic crisis, who would buy it? In the end, it didn't fall into the hands of our Ling family again.
It's a pity that he can't explain all these things, Ling Zhigao is very stubborn, it is difficult to convince him, and these reasons that Ling Shizhe said have not happened now, these reasons are based on assumptions in Ling Zhigao's view, if it is really as he said, the Bretton Woods system has fallen, then the United States is not finished, but now look at the national strength of the United States, is he finished? So in his opinion, Ling Shizhe's words were not credible at all.
Seeing that he couldn't convince Ling Zhigao, Ling Shizhe turned his head to look at Ling Shikai again, but unfortunately, he didn't believe it either, sighed, and finally persuaded: "Whether my father and eldest brother believe my words or not, you shouldn't have any objections to the fact that the dollar crisis broke out again, right?" ”
The two nodded in acknowledgement.
"Well, based on this, you can't go and take this piece of land down, in case they join forces, we just took this piece of land, and there will be a deadline for development at the latest, and then you don't want to develop it? At this time, the group's capital chain will become very dangerous, and the slightest disturbance in the international community will cause the Ling family to break the capital chain and go bankrupt, such as the dollar crisis, now my company owes so much debt, I can't support you, this plate occupies too much money, not to mention two such big plates, you can do it yourself. ”
Ling Shizhe must give them a good vaccination, Ling Zhigao's temperament he knows too well, gambling and speculation are very heavy, he can hug He Yingqin's thigh in the army, and often regard himself as He Yingqin's student, which has a lot to do with his character. He is too good at drilling, this so-called officialdom drilling, is what people often call gambling and speculative psychology, this kind of character is very suitable for officialdom, but it is not good when used in Hong Kong, a free economic market.
He was 100% sure, don't look at what Ling Zhigao said before, but what the eldest brother Ling Shikai said just now will definitely provoke his gambling nature, so as to change his original intention and get involved, no one will be able to save the Ling family at that time.