2.4 Heavy positive, please throw high and suck low
On Wednesday, the broader markets of the two cities rose and fell. The Shanghai Composite Index once surged to the 30-day moving average intraday, which can be seen as the vertical line support suggested by the stock fairy group over the weekend. As I said earlier, when support comes down, that's resistance.
However, today's intraday communication with group friends also prompted: Fortunately, the vertical line is oblique. The resistance will gradually increase. Continued trading in more detail below.
Today, relatively speaking, the SME index continues to outperform the Shanghai Composite Index.
On the disk, there are as many as 52 stocks with a daily limit, indicating that market sentiment is still active.
In terms of plates, the steel sector in early trading was stimulated by the strong price limit of Baosteel shares, and the overall increase was the first.
When I saw it, I knew it was going to be over. Recently, the steel market has ended, and the performance of the market is mostly not secondary.
Sure enough, the market jumped in the afternoon.
Recent stock reviews have repeatedly reminded that the optimistic Internet finance sector continues to attack. That's a solid plus.
In the afternoon, the iron boss of China Railway Second Bureau was rich, and his willfulness rose strongly again, and the price limit was blocked. The railway infrastructure sector once rose 3%, but then large finance, coal and other sectors have fallen sharply from the morning high. In the end, the markets of the two cities both closed at the second low......
The trend is reasonable, slightly unexpected. Yesterday's prediction that today's Shanghai Composite Index should be normal and should close a yin or yang doji below the vertical line. I didn't expect the drop to be slightly greater than the judgment.
But if you think about it, I have been repeatedly emphasizing recently that the market has stabilized and will begin to rebound slightly, but the height of the rebound should not be overlooked for the time being. Isn't Wednesday's rally and pullback confirming their views? What's the problem? It seems that there are still undue illusions about the recent market.
A careful analysis is not difficult to find that the market has just stabilized. In particular, once the short-term hedging of too many heavyweight stocks rises, it will inevitably lead to a large number of unhedging funds and meat cutting plates. The market rose and fell back to expectations.
There are large funds shipped out of blue-chip unbundles, so how should we look at the blockbuster benefits on the evening of 2.3?
Let's take a look at the news first.
There were media reports in early trading: on February 3, the purchase amount of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is mainly based on foreign-funded institutions, increased sharply to 3.68 billion yuan, achieving the second successful bottom-buying in the year.
The strange thing about the Chinese stock market is that foreign monks can recite scriptures. (Except, of course, the social security fund of the national team......) The darkness of foreign-funded institutions seems to indicate that there will be big news to be announced in China in recent days.
Sure enough, after 33 months, the central bank's website announced after the close of trading on Wednesday that it would cut the RMB reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from February 5.
At the same time, in order to further enhance the ability of financial institutions to support structural adjustment, increase support for small and micro enterprises, "three rural" and major water conservancy projects, and reduce the RMB reserve requirement ratio by an additional 0.5 percentage points for urban commercial banks and non-county rural commercial banks whose proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises meet the target RRR reduction standard.
The Reserve Requirement Ratio for the Agricultural Development Bank of China will be reduced by an additional 4 percentage points.
Singapore's FTSE A50 futures soared after the central bank's RRR cut, rebounding quickly from a 2% decline to a 3.5% rise. Authoritative financial experts expect that the central bank's RRR cut will release funds of up to 500 billion to 600 billion, which will constitute a blockbuster positive for the stock market and the real economy, especially for finance, real estate, steel, coal and other large blue-chip sectors have a short-term boost.
Note: Experts are talking about a "short-term" boost.
Are the words subtle?
How will the market go on Thursday after the RRR cut? There is a lot of talk in the group of immortals. It can be seen that many people are very concerned.
To recap: according to the performance of the market on the next day of previous RRR cuts, there are ups and downs, and there doesn't seem to be much rule to follow. But one thing is certain, that is, it is a foregone conclusion that a sharp increase will be opened, especially in the directly benefited banking, insurance, brokerage, real estate and other weighted sectors. Opening sharply higher and rushing higher is a high probability event!
Rush high! Yes, rush high! This rush high. I believe that the technical faction will take over, and will gradually understand the blue-chip varieties in their hands.
Retail investors, on the other hand, rushed in with green eyes.
After the surge, I expect the index to fall back. Especially after the stocks in the above-mentioned sectors rose by 5% or even the limit!
The eldest of the Li family believes that it is a wise move to learn from the technical school to be decisive in the short term, and to take a long-term view.
Of course, if we look at the current situation with a strategic eye. The broader market is in the secondary minor correction phase after the first wave of the big bull market at this time. That is, the upward retracement phase of the wave theory. Even if you rush up and down, there won't be much room for falling! The market will soon be in tune.
It's just a blue-chip variety that was trapped in the early stage, and you have to stand guard to change your sentry. However, it is expected that some fresh blood will be injected into the guard this time.
What happens after that? Naturally, it will continue to rise, especially small and medium-cap stocks with better shapes. Like a review of Danhua, Xinpeng, Chang'an, Haiyue, Seagull Bathroom, three-dimensional. As well as a well-adjusted agricultural sector!
Looking ahead, maintain the view of vertical line resistance. It is expected that there will be some pressure in the 3240-3270 point area of the Shanghai Composite Index, and a real breakthrough is expected to have some tossing and turning. Please grasp the opportunity of selling high and then buying low for the short-term impact brought by the huge intraday oscillation of the stock index on Thursday......
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