Section 394 A major plan for industrial adjustment
On the other side of the world, the United States is entering a very prosperous period, and after World War I, the national economy of the United States has developed rapidly. This golden period of economic and social development happened to be during the 61st term of Coolidge, the 30th president of the United States, Calvin 61, so the economic prosperity of the United States during this period is also called the "Coolidge Boom". It is also known as the "Roaring Twenties" because of the rise of jazz, but the economic boom in the United States in the 20s of the 20th century actually hid huge hidden dangers, which later directly led to the Great Depression of 1929-1933.
The return of American soldiers from the front line of the war in Europe ushered in the beginning of this era, followed by the birth of a new art represented by jazz, and the emergence of new and confident modern female faces; Although the last cataclysm of 1929 marked its end, the countless inventions and creations of this period, the unprecedented wave of industrialization, the exuberant consumption demand and desire of the people, and the radical changes in lifestyles of this period are still unforgettable. Living in an era of flowers, the vast majority of Americans naturally do not notice the looming global economic crisis, but China has already felt the crisis from the surplus of products in advance due to the previous liberal capitalist development and weak industrial base, which has led to too many low-value-added industries.
World War I was a catastrophe in human history, but it provided an opportunity for the economic development of the United States. In the early days of the war, the United States, like China, took advantage of the favorable position of "neutrality" and took advantage of the large demand for military supplies on both sides to act as an arsenal for both sides, rapidly expanding military production and heavy industry production; In addition, the United States lent money to Britain and France during the war (China used this period to reduce its foreign debt and regain much of its autonomy), and took advantage of the weakening competitiveness of European belligerents in the world market to expand industrial and agricultural production and export goods. By the end of the war, the United States had changed from a pre-war importer of capital to a exporter of capital, and from a debtor country to a creditor country. By the twenties, the United States had mastered one-half of the world's gold reserves, controlled the international financial markets, and moved the financial center of the post-war capitalist world from Britain to the United States. This greatly strengthened the position of the United States in the capitalist world, provided abundant funds for the renewal of production equipment, the expansion of the scale of production, and the rapid development of production, thus laying the foundation for economic prosperity.
At the beginning of World War I, the United States was busy with military production and heavy production, and after entering the war in April 1917, it was busy with the war, so it had no time to pay attention to the renewal of obsolete production equipment, and its production technology was relatively backward. After the end of the war, the United States relied on the abundant funds accumulated in the war, and with the breakthrough of some new technologies, there was a boom in updating production equipment, expanding the scale of production, and adopting new technologies. At the same time, the United States has also vigorously pursued the "rationalization of industrial production." At that time, the most representative of the movement was the Taylor and Ford systems. Back in the 80-90s of the 19th century, the young engineer Frederick 61W61 Taylor set out to study the scientific management of the plant, which developed into a theory. After the maturity of this theory, especially the mature assembly line and other professional division of labor adopted by China's standard enterprises, the formation of the business outsourcing market, and the introduction of the Montagu-standard system, almost every department in the American industrial and commercial enterprises has accepted scientific management to varying degrees. The so-called Ford system is the use of assembly line operation or assembly line operation technology. This technology was actually learned by Ford Motor Company from the standard department after cooperating with China's standard cars, and it was applied to many industrial sectors in the early 20s because it can greatly improve production efficiency and reduce production costs.
The US monopoly bourgeoisie also promoted economic development by intensifying scientific research in the industrial sector. After the war, large American corporations established their own scientific research institutions, and in 1927 208 companies reported that they spent nearly $12 million on scientific research. The intensification of scientific research in the industrial sector has promoted the application of new technologies in industrial production and promoted the rapid development of the economy. After the First World War, the US monopoly bourgeoisie, in order to pursue high profits, seized a large number of new overseas markets and exported capital and commodities by virtue of the economic strength it had expanded during the First World War, the opportunity of the post-war economic recovery of European countries, and the financial dependence of Western European countries on the United States. After World War I, the United States replaced Britain's dominant position in Canada with economic infiltration; In Latin America, the United States has squeezed out the capital of European countries with its "gold dollar" diplomacy, "big stick" policy, and the slogan that "America is the America of the Americans," making Canada and Latin America the main investment venues for US monopoly capital. In the name of helping to restore the devastation of the war, the United States has used the dollar everywhere to promote "gold-dollar diplomacy" with the developed capitalist countries in Europe. In this way, the foreign trade and capital exports of the United States are constantly growing.
While seizing new overseas markets, the United States is also focusing on expanding its domestic market. In the '20s, the monopoly bourgeoisie tried to stimulate the consumption of automobiles, housing, and large daily necessities with a variety of advertising campaigns and purchases on credit, which was much more advantageous than the conservative traditional empire.
Although the prosperity of the United States has begun to take shape, Wu Chenxuan and his staff have long been concerned about the development of the United States, and the Zhi Guild and other Chinese associations have also helped experts from the Economic Department of the Chinese Academy of Sciences to conduct long-term and in-depth investigations.
Finally, after much debate and research, it was agreed that China's entry into the middle income country faced a series of development risks, and that China had special conditions that would provide many options for escaping the "middle-income trap". However, the realization of all these options requires a stable socio-economic environment. This also requires China to deal with external threats (Japan) and internal disorder (the hollowing out of the central government in Nanjing and local conservative forces), and finally everyone chooses to trust the Wehrmacht to address external threats first, while the government and the Xinhua Party do their best to address the internal disorder and ensure a solid platform for a smooth transition to the Second Five-Year Plan.
Judging from the analysis of the economic data of the twelfth year of the Republic, the main entrance to the trap has now been opened, which is mainly manifested in the lack of economic momentum. Whether it is an over-reliance on the external economy (mainly exports) or a contraction of the internal economy (leading to inflation), it is a general economic downturn caused by a lack of economic momentum. Taking this conclusion as a benchmark, the most controllable way to get out of the trap is still the most fundamental way to promote domestic demand, so increasing employment (the state is vigorously promoting entrepreneurship) and enriching the industrial structure to the greatest extent, especially high-tech industries and infrastructure construction is an important supplementary driving force under the downturn of the general environment, to open up a stable expansion of the market with scientific and technological advantages, increase the upgrading of the industrial industry, and let outstanding enterprises have the opportunity to enter the high-tech field, and improve the level of research and development is an important alleviation; At the same time, it is reasonable to promote urbanization, increase agricultural centralization and mechanization, so that the income of agricultural people has been greatly improved, and the demand of the new population for the manufacturing industry is also a supplementary driving force, but the key is that the country can not develop more traditional high energy consumption and low value-added manufacturing at this node, otherwise it will only cause a larger capacity bubble because of short-term power, on the contrary, it is necessary to streamline the existing general manufacturing capacity, accelerate research and development and product upgrading, which will be the real role of this power; Finally, to improve the income of the urban population, will be to supplement all the power of the linkage link, because the increase in the income of the urban population can bring more opportunities for new industries and entrepreneurship, drive the consumption desire of the new urban population to promote the upgrading and transformation of the manufacturing industry to provide power, all links must be closely linked, as far as possible to reduce the external environment (international market) changes caused by the expansion and deepening of the trap entrance. Therefore, after a five-day meeting, the four principles of the Second Five-Year Plan were finally determined:
First, we need to promote equitable distribution as a starting point to cultivate a new foundation for sustained growth.
After experiencing rapid economic growth in the first decade of the Republic, China has accumulated a large production capacity, and its manufacturing industry has won the title of "the world's second factory". Therefore, the sustained development of China's economy has increasingly highlighted the status of demand, especially consumer demand, which has put forward new requirements for residents' income level and income distribution. That is, the state must not only raise the income level of the population, but also narrow the income gap. As far as China is concerned, all kinds of internal and external economic imbalances are related to the income level and distribution gap of residents, and the improvement of residents' income level and the narrowing of the income distribution gap are still important foundations for the upgrading of the industrial structure. More importantly, sustained economic growth requires a stable environment for social development, which must be ensured by narrowing the income distribution gap and achieving equitable distribution. For this reason, changing the proportion of national income distribution among the state, enterprises, and residents, reversing the trend of widening the income distribution gap, and finally narrowing the income distribution gap is the primary choice to avoid falling into the "middle-income trap."
Second, it is necessary to take the upgrading of the industrial structure as a breakthrough point to construct a new driving force for economic growth.
The key to overcoming the "middle-income trap" is to sustain high economic growth in a sustainable manner, which requires the construction of new growth drivers. Although the theory of economic growth tells us that the driving force of new economic growth comes from technological progress or innovation, knowledge and human capital accumulation, for middle-income countries, the most realistic and direct driving force should be economic restructuring, especially the upgrading of industrial structure. The production capacity accumulated by the labor-intensive industries such as iron and steel, textiles, grain and oil, which had been vigorously developed in the past, has been increasingly constrained, and the time has come for us to readjust the economic structure. If the upgrading of the industrial structure can be carried out relatively smoothly in the future, then there will be an impetus to overcome the "middle-income trap".
Third, it is necessary to rely on gradual urbanization to form sustained support for economic growth.
Rapid urbanization will bring about the contradiction between the rapid growth of urban population and the lag of urban infrastructure construction, which will lead to high urbanization costs, which will greatly reduce the function of urbanization to drive economic growth. There are reasons why some countries are caught in the "middle-income trap". Therefore, during the Second Five-Year Plan period, China's economic growth must grasp the balance between the promotion of urbanization and the increase in the cost of urbanization, and while continuously attracting the flow of rural population to the cities, it is also necessary to increase investment in the construction of urban infrastructure, so as to gradually promote the concentrated outbreak of urban problems and continue to give full play to the function of urbanization to boost economic growth.
Fourth, it is necessary to take the expansion and improvement of the domestic market as a guarantee to reduce the impact of external economic fluctuations.
Middle-income countries are vulnerable to external economic shocks, causing economic stagnation. China will also face such shocks, but China's vast and potential domestic market will be an effective safeguard against external economic shocks. Therefore, while changing the mode of foreign trade growth, China also needs to pay attention to tapping the potential of the domestic market.
Finally, under the unanimous consent of everyone, Wu Chenxuan distilled the core of the entire Second Five-Year Plan into ten words, that is, "science and technology, fairness, security, foundation, and stability", under the guidance of this cross policy, the people of the Government Council and the Secretariat entered the specific preparation of the Second Five-Year Plan without sleep and food, and Zhou Zhongfu, Wu Yunzhang, Miao Ruoxi, Deng Xianxian, Li Weichang, these rising stars also devoted themselves to the work of selflessness, and practiced their oath to fight for the rise of China.
While the elites in the political circles are working hard for the rejuvenation of the nation, the sons and daughters of China on other fronts are also doing their own work, paying sweat and even their lives for this ancient nation to regain its position at the pinnacle of the world.