Stock Commentary: Waiting for the change

ps:The body of the stock fairy,Because of the word collapse,Lost it......

The eldest child of the Li family instantly cried and fainted in the toilet! I had to get up early in the morning and rewrite it. I was so depressed that I turned off the lights and went to sleep......

The eldest son of the Li family said: In the bear market, if you don't lose money, you make money. Some people retorted: In a bull market, less profit is a loss.

Stocks are not a one-day fight, nor are they heroes judged by one-time success or failure. The ignorant leeks seven years ago may not be able to become a cow and a demon seven years later.

Pick-in-the-fire or sound investment? A one-year investment curve table straightened if it doesn't say anything. Then the straightening of the seven-year investment curve table is enough to say it all.

Heartbeat, mentality, heartbeat. Avoid cultivating the heart, ruling the country and leveling the world. may also be interpreted as jealousy, cultivating the heart, governing the market and earning the world!

As usual, let's talk about what the eldest son of the Li family said at noon on the day of the May 19 market:

To paraphrase a few words: anything is possible...... Nothing is impossible! ”

Looking back on this text, I don't know the friends who left the market with a full warehouse, and the friends who are bullish with a full warehouse. How are you feeling at this time?

To paraphrase the early story, the bulls and bears met by chance at the moment of entry and exit. glanced at each other, and muttered in unison with disdain in their hearts at the same time: "**".

The eldest son of the Li family covered his face helplessly and shouted: "How much is it appropriate to control the position?" It's been a long time. Why do people always go to extremes when making stock markets such as China? The above sentence is said to the stock fairy, and it is also said to the book friends of the alliance.

Back to this morning's plate: to reiterate, today is the "5.19" anniversary. Fifteen years ago on this day, China's stock market opened a new page. The eldest son of the Li family has recently repeatedly been in the stock fairy salon and stock commentary. The alliance stock fairy group and other places say: every year today, as long as the market is not stopped, the market is not closed! The market has to recall the domineering of the year!

Returning to today's market, the market has emerged as one of the two possibilities that we analyzed. And it's a tribute to this kind.

The sudden rise in weight led the Shanghai Composite Index to 4,400 points. In the past few days, the ChiNext index, which has risen too much, has once again been suppressed by the east wind and has fallen.

There are two things to talk about on the board.

One is the return of the king of brokerage stocks. A number of brokerage stocks, including Huatai Securities, joined forces to increase the limit, and the brokerage sector as a whole rose 8.39%. Insurance and banking, which are followed by big weights.

Second, the small and medium-sized board index stood at the 10,000-point mark today, nearly ten years ago. Its lowest point was 1377 points. Today, the nearly 7-fold increase is enough to show that the main opportunity in this decade is in small and mid-cap stocks.

Start by grasping small amplification: The eldest of the Li family has always advocated that the alliance leader and the stock fairy should not touch the big blue chips most of the time. Blue chips only have a phased impulse market and an over-falling rebound market. The rest of the time it's a big supporting role!

For a long time, blue chips were called "big sticks" in circles, not that they were big. It's that he really can't bite. This time, the king of brokerages is back, and many people are full of optimism. Many people were touched by the pull of the disk and excited by the g-spot. But the eldest son of the Li family imagined a scene that may not be optimistic in the future.

Today's noon comment: The eldest son of the Li family does not comment on what is good, what votes are domineering, and what votes are slightly owed. Let's talk about how the market will go in the future.

In the future, it is nothing more than the weight of the GEM will continue to soar to drive another wave, or the weight will continue to rise and cause the GEM to plummet.

Of course, there are two possibilities, that is, what about the weighted day trip? Can GEM continue to be powerful? What will happen if the weight one-day tour leads to the fall of the gem?

Among the four possibilities, the eldest of the Li family thinks that the latter is more likely than the former!

In short, please recall how happy you were before the last crash and how sour you were afterward.

After all, one wrong step. Wrong steps. Remember, it's better to earn less than to be greedy for a quilt to keep your principal! ”

Let's enter the full-day stock review stage:

Today is the anniversary of "5.19". Why did the Li family keep mentioning 5.19 before? Because on this day in 1999, he opened a new page in the Chinese stock market. In the days that followed. Regardless of whether the market rises or falls, most of the time it is paying tribute to the 5.19 of fifteen years.

Let's take a look at today, fifteen years later, what kind of trend has 5.19 taken in? Today, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4417.55 points, with a turnover of 693.81 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index traded 730.16 billion yuan, and the trading volume of the two markets was enlarged.

Look at it as a whole. The market is basically flat. Subsequently, blue chips such as brokerages, banks, and real estate rose. They led the market strongly and ended up 134 points.

First of all, from the perspective of the disk, the stocks in the two cities rose, and the brokers, intelligent machines, diversified finance, overseas engineering, electrical instruments, smart grids, special steel and other sectors rose highly; The three sectors of culture, education and leisure, online loan concept, and Internet fell, with a total of 238 stocks in the two cities up and down, and no stocks fell to the limit. Note that there is no limit today!

Judging from the performance of the disk, he has deduced it as one of the two possibilities that Li Jia'er has analyzed many times in recent days.

That is, the sudden rise of extremely over-falling heavyweight stocks led the Shanghai Composite Index to stand at 4400 points, and it is not difficult to find that the market finally closed out of the bald and barefoot Dayang line, and the main board index of the two cities rose by more than 3%, while the ChiNext index rose slightly, but it was also from a decline of 2% to a close of 1.35%. But the value depression that Li Jia'er said before is good, and the strong stocks of the small and medium-sized board are good. A few days of collective flameout!

Every time the market needs to impact the index, brokerage stocks are always the first to bear it, and they are the pioneers of opening the way to meet the water, but every time there is a pullback, the brokerage is always a chicken feather under its feet. Behind today's five brokerages at the same time, the brokerage sector as a whole rose 7.45%. The performance of Big Finance's insurance and banking stocks. It seems impossible to think that today's market is not outstanding. Their sudden riot bought foreshadowing and hidden worries for the follow-up.

Some people are thinking, the style has changed. Your previous comments on Chinalco, China Overseas Development, Shaogang Songshan and yesterday's zinc shares, as long as one review will start one, this is because the blue chips have been suppressed for too long. It's time to behave, isn't it?

Comment: One detonates one?

The eldest of the Li family just wants to say that the internal reason is only because they have adjusted too much in the short term! If you don't pull it up, it's a broken stance. And it will also make the index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets adjust deeper in the future! The reason why the main force pulls up these blue chips is mainly to stabilize the market, and at the same time to pull them up in the current situation, it will also be able to play more roles in getting twice the result with half the effort. Of course, the tide of mergers and acquisitions brewing in the reform of state-owned enterprises is also a booster for the rise of blue-chip heavyweight stocks!

Today, many news files have mentioned "Made in China 2025", his official release. At present, the eldest son of the Li family has a feeling that he has seen the death of the light in Industry 4.0.

Come to think of it, there will inevitably be a two-level trend in the blue-chip sector in the future. If it rises too much, it will definitely pull back, and if it doesn't rise much, it will deduce the market to make up for it!

The eldest of the Li family has the following views on the judgment of the market outlook. First of all, the strong rise of the market on 5.19 does not mean that the risk of short-term adjustment is temporarily lifted. After all, many varieties have a feeling of fatigue this afternoon.

For the market outlook. The eldest of the Li family feels that it is expected to launch an impact according to the 4450 built-in higher line suggested last week. However, after 5.19, it does not mean that the market will soon reach new highs.

Therefore, the eldest son of the Li family maintains the view of the overall article unchanged. In addition to the stage top, there is a high probability that there will be one or two times to rush to the top to lure more in the day or two after 5.19.

After the index surges, there is a high probability that it will still retrace. When everyone understands what a phased adjustment is, they will understand why the market can't complete the reversal in such a short period of time when looking at the market.

The stock market, after always going up and down, has completed a new "history" that is very similar to history.

How should we deal with this situation? It is not advisable to go long when you are bullish. And when you are bearish, it is also not advisable to go short.

Don't think that the eldest son of the Li family made a mistake. In fact, this is really the case, when you are bullish, you suddenly reverse and go straight down, and you are forced to stand at a high level. When bearish. He just soared, you shouted down your throat below, and the main force will not let the index let go of his arrogant figure.

Is it inexplicable to think about this situation? In fact, everyone should have experienced this feeling.

What is the right way to invest? How should we deal with it?

This actually leads to the question of how to make a market.

Some stocks are full of positions waiting for the market to continue to hold high, and some stocks are in two positions. Or a callback such as a short position. Instruments are very undesirable to operate. If you have a high level, you should control the position at about 50% to sell high and buy low, and after closing, the holdings in your hand should not be more than 50% of the position. And if you are bearish, you should not reduce your position to this point.

In the five-layer position, if you find that the disk is reversed, you can decisively reduce the position only after 30%. You should go long with the bottom of the dip backhand. For example, to be a large-cap stock, you must always be ready to grease the soles of your feet, fast in and out, which everyone should remember. The last time the bull market was a pot of warm water, a big pie I don't know how many retail investors were boiled alive during the period.

Technical: The dynamic indicators on the 60-minute chart of the market are all showing a golden cross state, and the disk shows a short-term rebound and upward impulse. Moreover, the main force deliberately showed a pair of breakthroughs through the middle of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, and there was a ** closer to the upper band.

However, on the whole, the weekly level and multi-day dynamic indicators of the market have shown a high dead fork. Should I take a peek or a look?

The answer is on the horizon......

The overall display of the stock index pulled up again, and the adjustment risk with the increasing rhythm seems to have indicated: after the market is sideways, the pull-up temptation is more, and the stock index pulls up to the impact before the high may form a double-top pattern, and the trend of returning to the horse gun is obvious!

News: The establishment of the strategic emerging board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange has been accelerated, and venture capital and park listed companies have benefited. According to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is about to launch a new market for innovative small and medium-sized enterprises. It is reported that the plan has been approved by relevant parties and is expected to be launched before the end of this year. Venture capital and park listed companies are expected to benefit, and it is worth noting that with the approach of the registration system, the concept of venture capital is becoming more and more sought after by the market. There are many related stocks, including individual stocks.

But at this time, even if the income of varieties such as East Lake High-tech and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, Li Jia'er also believes that it should undoubtedly be only an observation stage, not a buying time! The eldest son of the Li family waited for the past two days to rise and fall...... (To be continued......)