Representative Question: Is the Bull Market Over?

The eldest of the Li family saw this question at the beginning of the salon and responded directly: "Really become the leader of the alliance, the eldest of the Li family has the question of whether the bull market is over." △ Top novel, my opinion has not changed. Even on Friday, I responded to this question with such an analogy!

What metaphor?

"The cow was only slashed twice, and now he's lying on the ground resting!"

If someone asks, Li Da, why do you think that the cow was only slashed twice?

Recently, many old shareholders have begun to prepare to cut meat and leave the market. Some people even believe that China's stock market has peaked. I'm going to delete the software!

Huijian lover: "The overall bull market is right, but it's a bit far, I still see the same as Brother Dong, as long as the short position of the futures index is more than the long position to a certain percentage, it must not be good!" ”

Li Jia'er: "Actually, in today's salon activities, you just need to follow carefully and think. Later, I think it will give you a clearer idea......"

Henry: My mother-in-law is a first-generation veteran and is firmly bearish

Li Jia'er: "Actually, this situation is normal. I even think that if no one is bearish now. The master behind the scenes, it's time to jump off the building! ”

Huijian Lover: "I ask a question on behalf of everyone: Now everyone knows that the rebound is about to leave, but when will the rebound be there and how many days will it last?" The height of the rebound is where the pressure level is. This one is placed first, and it will be answered when it is in order......

Li Jia'er: "Let's talk about last week's plate first. As you can see, this is last week's chart. In the intraday, the Red Devils were absent from work on Monday, and the market on Tuesday was killed directly in the sky in order to show that the Red Devils were absenteeism! When there is a bottoming rally on Wednesday and you want to regain the rally. Thursday's bears told the bulls: You're killing yourself! Suffer death! Mortal...... (From: Hearthstone).

Everyone is looking forward to Friday's reversal, and on Friday, there is a low opening and killing, and there is a second gap on the board!

I saw the trend. What the eldest son of the Li family wants to say is: "Don't ask if the cow is dead or not. Don't ask: this round of bull market is ostensibly a reform bull, but in essence, it is a pure capital-driven purple bull. At present, the over-the-counter allocation of funds, the reduction of two financial institutions, the two financial convergence have touched the ceiling, the accelerated blood pumping of IPOs, the reduction of executive holdings, and the endless ups and downs of hearses and sub-IPOs, does it mean that the bull market has come to an end? ”

In fact, the eldest son of the Li family wanted to ask: "Are these important?" ”

In the short term, there were two gaps in a week. What does this mean? I posted a stock review in the early hours of this Friday morning. The content is all there, so don't take up time to repeat it!

I went to do something on Friday. I didn't look at the market much for a day.

When I had time to look at the market, I found that the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened sharply lower again on Friday. Then it continued to fall downward, and the tail index fell nearly 300 points at one point, falling below the three levels of 4700, 4600 and 4500 points in a row, and finally the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 4481 points, and then closed a gap long black line. The GEM opened lower and continued to fall by 5.45%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 685.5 billion yuan throughout the day, and the volume can continue to shrink. All in all, it plummeted by 13% last week, which no one seems to dare to imagine, right? But is it true that no one has thought of it?

Heart slave loves to play: I think of it, there are a lot of them around me

Li Jia'er: Actually, I think many people have thought of it! Including many alliance leaders of the Zai Bore Alliance. Big masters. Except for a few "dead bulls" who are firmly bullish. Most of the people are shouting, why don't you fall yet! It's not going to fall yet! I feel like I'm going to fall! For the hair rose again?

Let's fall! Let's fall!

The eldest of the Li family: "Xiaoying, have you seen all these remarks?" Hehe......"

Heart slave loves to play: a lot

Li Jia'er: Today, a certain big tyrant exploded a screenshot of **. The content is last Friday, the eldest son of the Li family put the family. Note! It is the stock in the family's stock account. Most of the clearances. Of course, there are those who can't be moved. That's really no way. All converted to money market funds!

So~

I'm a little embarrassed to say: I'm kind of a heart and hand.

, but the alliance masters. What about you? You don't know if you pay attention. This round of market from the beginning to the present. Every style change, every major level adjustment. As well as these two tigers and tigers and the sharp decline of the market. The eldest son of the Li family actually made predictions in advance. Seems to be slightly more accurate than the weather forecast......

Actually, after this big smash. The eldest of the Li family began to comment quickly on Friday.

I think everyone has seen it and listened to it. Thinking about the dry goods sent by the Li family's eldest son on Friday, why is the salon set at nine o'clock? The eldest son of the Li family sat in front of the computer at eight o'clock.

What are you waiting for?

The eldest son of the Li family/Han Xiao? :Message. Good news! However, the eldest son of the Li family has waited until now, and the news has not come!? I think everyone knows what news the eldest son of the Li family wants to wait for when they hear me.

Not bad. RRR Reduction ......

In fact, not to mention the big rise. Wait for me to post a paragraph that I just wrote. And then talking about the big rise in the periphery.? Until the start of the Stockimmortal Salon. The only life-saving straw "RRR cut" this time has not been announced! Originally, it was said that June was the window for RRR cuts. If it doesn't fall today, it is estimated that the straw in June will be really out of play. At present, judging from the clues at the macro level, it is likely that this will not be able to fall! Why? There are two reasons, on the one hand, the state is revitalizing the stock of assets, and if it wants to wake up the sleeping funds, it is likely to continue to make the hard landing of funds and squeeze out the stock funds, especially the financial funds! On the other hand, the state does not want to ease at all, because as soon as it is relaxed, the funds will flow to the stock market in a different way, and now is the time to press leverage, let alone move quantitative monetary policy tools.

Moreover, the eldest son of the Li family suddenly discovered a problem. The market is likely to show a Davis double kill effect! So what is the Davis Double Kill Effect? In fact, there are some technologists who should know.

Actually, it's okay if you don't know!?

Li Jia'er found a double effect on Baidu to explain the double effect between market expectations and price fluctuations of listed companies——— what the famous American investors Davis family called the "double kill effect". In market investment, the degree of correlation between price fluctuations and investors' expectations can basically reach 70%-80%. The rising expectations and the rising PE positioning level determine the nonlinear correlation between prices and investors' expectations. In the past, this phenomenon was called the irrational behavior of the market, but more precisely, it should be the spontaneous fluctuations caused by the rational short-term expectations of the market. It can also be called the "Davis Double Kill Effect". (To be continued......)