The eldest son of the Li family heard from high-level friends in the circle that there was good news after today's closing. Whether the news is true or not depends on today's market.

Before the stock review began, the eldest of the Li family recounted the stock review at noon. In fact, the noon stock review is relatively important, at least today's noon review helped the leader of the stock fairy to successfully leave the market from Da'an Gene. How did you get out? Let's take a look at the stock commentary first:

"The latest stock review of the stock fairy mentions: if there is a rebound, reduce holdings, fast in and out. But I never thought of it. The main players of market makers did not give retail investors a chance. Thinking about it, it is estimated that the supreme retail investor has also been slashed a few times recently.

Without further ado, let's talk about the situation first:

At the opening of today's market, the market continued the crazy decline at the end of yesterday. The two markets opened lower in early trading, and then continued to test the bottom. Not to be expected. After all, the stock index futures after yesterday's close have been half an hour before today's opening, and the immortals are pointing the way!

The small and medium-sized board and the gem are very resistant. In just a few trading days, the market is full of wailing. It's like returning to the pre-liberation bear market overnight.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 400 points in one go, and the Chinese aunts and aunts who have recently entered the market and the little fresh meat of the post-90s. I am afraid that I will have to stand guard for a while. The basic establishment of the top of the stage confirms the Li family's retreat at the end of April. It confirms the remarks that there will be squats after a good start. It's just that this squat is much faster than the Li family's eldest thought. Overall, there is support near the 30-day moving average on the market. Looking down, the support in the 3950-4030 area is stronger, and the possibility of a continued sharp decline is actually very small. Just like what the eldest son of the Li family said, four thousand one hundred points up and down......

So, here's the point. What stocks to buy for the rebound? Should you cut the meat after the rebound?

Don't think about it, through the performance of many book friends in the fairy group. The eldest son of the Li family has already seen the doubts in everyone's conversation. Happily, the eldest of the Li family was more indifferent when he saw the book friends in the alliance group. In fact, if you want to buy it, you have to consider security. The most suitable symbol should be a few days before the market correction. At present, it has fallen to near the 34-day line or 55-day line. How to set the moving average? Let's take a look at the screenshots in the Li family's eldest children's alliance group.

In terms of individual stocks: Daanji gene suggested in yesterday's stock review. Contrarian pull up and have a further breakthrough upward momentum. However, we have to guard against the situation that strong stocks make up for the decline after the return of new funds. This is also another aspect to tell everyone that too strong varieties are not suitable for ordinary people to snipe, and only suitable for ultra-short-term masters. To make this variety, you must also have the determination to be a strong man with a broken arm at any time.

After the market plummeted, rumors about why it plummeted? The eldest of the Li family knows that this is the source of greed and panic.

There are too many afternoon comments and there is little point in discussing it. The eldest son of the Li family is actually faintly looking forward to smashing some down. But it probably won't be too big.

The internal reason for this adjustment is only that the market has risen too much and the capital shortcomings brought about by deleveraging. Therefore, a decline will directly shake the country's overall virtual economy and drive the real economy. The policy of revitalizing existing funds and financing large undertakings such as the Belt and Road Initiative has deviated.

To sum up: optimistic about the future trend, the red May V-shaped trend is in progress......"

The above is Thursday's midday stock review. The Da'an gene prompted in the stock review suggested that the strong stocks made up for the decline. After the opening of the market. The leader of the alliance came and asked, "Does Dahn Gene need to leave?" ”

The reply given by the eldest son of the Li family was: "If you see a good child, take it!" ”

Subsequently, take profits and reduce holdings! Harvest the ultimate happiness in life and the stock market. That is: as soon as you buy it, it will rise, and as soon as you sell it, it will fall!

Start today's stock commentary:

Today continued the crazy decline at the end of Wednesday, the two markets opened lower on Thursday, and then continued to bottom, the overall strength of Shenzhen and Shanghai weakened, and finally the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.77%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell slightly by 0.15%.

From the disk observation, the brokerage sector is red against the trend, and the concept stocks such as software, e-commerce, and charging piles are strong. High-speed rail infrastructure and steel were among the top decliners. Individual stocks fell more and rose less, and heavyweight stocks still led the decline! It is not difficult to find that although there are only about 70 stocks that have blocked the limit, when looking at the down limit, the number of people with the limit is as high as 60. There are more than 600 stocks that have fallen by more than 5 percent. Perhaps it can be described as quite tragic. In fact, many stocks have fallen for 5 or 6 days in one go. From the high, the decline is more than 15 percent. It is not unheard of that the decline of 25 percent has been achieved.

The eldest son of the Li family was an afterthought, and the brothers pointed out before May Day, "It is expected that there will be a squat in the Zhou market after the first good start in May." The box will oscillate between 4170-4550 points".

In fact, looking at the stock review circle, there are not many people who let go and quit at the end of April to tell the truth. And at that time, it was proposed that the market could be killed at about 4170 in the first week of May. It seems to be even rarer.

However. The last judgment reminded me of the 07.08 two-year fund company forecasting conference. None of them saw 6124 at their highs, and none saw 1664 later.

This is the harsh reality, the stock market can never predict the high. Nadir. Open your mouth and close your mouth to rush to six thousand, and the sound of attacking eight thousand is still in your ears. Are those people still scared now?

On Thursday, it was seen at 4170 points, and it even fell to 4108 points during the session. At one point, it fell below the 30-day moving average. This habitual killing and falling directly exceeded the expectations of the Li family.

But when do you think about it, when will China's stock market have slow bears and slow bulls? Isn't it always that when it rises, it goes up too much, and when it falls, it also goes too down!

In fact, slow cattle is the most photographed word in the Chinese stock market at present.

From regulators, media, market participants, to ordinary stockholders, everyone seems to be talking about the term slow bull when they talk about the stock market.

China's stock market has been questioned as either a bear or a mad cow. In the past seven years, the circle has actually handed: "Look at the United States, which has been a slow bull trend for seven years." China has been on a long journey for seven years. ”

Now to the Chinese stockholders turned over and the serfs sang the songs. But how is our stock market performing?

Doubling from 2,000 points to 4,000 points, in less than 9 months, this bull is a bit fierce......

It was observed that the management? In order to control the mad cow and build a slow cow in China's stock market, it is really heartbreaking.

The stock market is not good if it falls, and it is not good if it rises quickly, and it is necessary to control the ups and downs. With more than 20 years of experience. In fact, our management control methods have long been improved a lot. It's also much smarter. At the very least, the management has mastered the essence of regulation!

That's the balance of chips and bankroll......

The management has no worries about the chips in their hands, and there are more than 600 IPO queues.

Funds controlled. There is no way to manage the bank savings and moves, it is all the people's own money, but they can release various negative and bullish policies through the mouthpiece of the official media, and suggest psychological intervention by mainstream media such as the party newspaper and Xinhua News Agency.

Financing can be managed, but the adjustment of the leverage ratio can make it possible to borrow or not and how much to borrow.

Strictly controlling the two financial institutions and cutting off the relationship between umbrella trusts and the stock market, etc., are all magic weapons in the management's toolbox.

These are all for money. With the macro control of the management and the full cooperation of the media and market participants, the goal of the country is to slow the cow, slow the cow, slow the cow......

So many tools for regulation. So many wrist tricks. But when I really pulled it out and slipped away. The actual results were clearly not satisfactory to the management.

Fairies, I ask you. Do you think it's a slow cow now?

I'm afraid that even the shareholders will not admit that it is a slow cow now, and the stock fairies will probably not feel that it is a slow cow now.

After all, Mr. Market is not very obedient. China's stock market is either crazy or bearish. The slow cow is the goal of the management, and in the hearts of shareholders, the slow cow seems to have become a kind of legend.

Slow cow or not.? It's not up to everyone to decide. None of the management has given a clear definition of Slow Bull.

What is a slow bull and what is a slow bull? Just move your mouth?

After all, the standard of slow cattle cannot be known to the management itself. It is also necessary for the market to understand what kind of pattern it is

It's a real roaming. The eldest of the Li family estimates that the management really has a clear account book in their hearts?

The Li family has not seen the management's definition of slow cattle. But when the eldest son of the Li family was searching for news on this topic. I found that management had a similar description many years ago.

There is such a passage on the Internet that expresses the characterization of slow cattle: steady and rising. The increase is limited.

But that's just qualitative.

However, no relevant quantification was found.

What is the amplitude called stability? How much does it go up in a year to choose "limited increase"?

In the past, in many cases, how clear was the goal in the regulation of real estate in various places? People's real estate regulation clearly marked prices: house prices cannot increase by more than 10%. If you follow this quantification, do you also set a target for the stock market?

In fact, the eldest son of the Li family told everyone, this? Naturally, it can't be. Not feasible either!

If you want to set an annual growth target, do you still have to set an annual decline target? The stock market is not a property market after all. Obviously, there can't be anything bad to say, but I believe that the management must have it in their hearts.

Let's guess one. 20-30% upside. Go down to 10%, which should be acceptable to all parties.

Said and went. According to the Li family's eldest son, will everyone have a kind of: Hey, so to speak. Doesn't that seem crazy, does it? Is it said that the rhythm of a slow cow can be successful?

In fact, judging from history, China's stock market has long slowed down. The new leeks may not know. Hardcore investors should know: China's stock market was the first to have no price limit. The earliest flow of funds was T+0. The madness of the year is compared to today. At least it's slowed down, much slower.

Don't believe me? Let's take the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange as an example.

Doubling in nine months, is it fast? Crazy? In fact, compared to the past, it is much more rational.

Historically, after the stock price was liberalized in 92, at the end of November of that year, the index rose from 386 points to 800 points, which took less than a week, and this round of bull market ended in less than four months. Up to 1558 points!

At the end of July '94, the index rose from 325 to 1,000 points, less than a month.

In comparison, the current nine months are almost like the embarrassing pictures seen recently, polar bears skating......

In fact, since the ninety-four years later, the index has risen more and more slowly, coupled with the re-establishment of the price limit, and the plate is getting bigger and heavier, the time for the index to double has become longer and longer, even 998 to 6124 has taken nearly two and a half years. It is believed that it will rise from 4,000 points to 8,000 points from now on.

Even if the management does not deliberately regulate, the time will not be less than nine months. It's just that, as things stand. Management doesn't seem to want the index to be done in nine months. The management seems to want to get out of the slow bull market for several years, and the key is that.

The longitudinal comparison is over. Let's compare them side-by-side. relative to mature markets such as the United States.

China's stock market is indeed a little faster. Even though the longitudinal comparison of the stock market has slowed down a lot, we can't be like the mantra of "simple and rude" in the month. The Chinese stock market is required to be the same slow bull as the United States!

That's impractical, and it's not going to work!

I know that there will be people who will talk about the GEM. But in 2000, the NASDAQ in the United States was even more insane. Just give it a name. That's a few hundred dollars. Two millennial technology stocks. The eldest son of the Li family didn't understand it back then, but he also heard the old analyst at that time say it. There's a chilling feeling when you're chatting.

China's GEM has only been around for a few years, and it's normal to be a little crazy when you're young. Since the slow bull is not only not a legend in China, but the Chinese stock market is already in the slow bull market.

So why do many people still shout slow cows?

The reason is naturally what kind of attitude is to look at other people's husbands and wives. If you say it more steadily. I remembered when I talked to E Fund's fund manager about their 300 ETF index fund. When people open their mouths, they are: "Horizontally, it looks like a peak on the side of the ridge, and the distance and the height are different." I don't know the true face of Lushan, only because I am in this mountain. ”

Our own slow cow rhythm, the Chinese version of slow cattle that Mr. Market is silently building. With the increasing maturity of China's stock market and the gradual integration with international standards, Li Jia'er is convinced that Slow Bull will gradually keep up with the mature stock markets in Europe and the United States. But if you want to come to the routine, it won't be a condition!

No, it's fallen a lot lately. There are friends in the circle who say: There are friends above who say it. In the past two weeks, interest rate cuts have been brewing. There is a high probability that the close will close on Friday today. If it doesn't fall, it will definitely ...... next week

What he said was called an affirmation, and the eldest son of the Li family believed it......

Is the message true? Set that aside. So let's analyze it, there has been this kind of continuous plunge now. At what point will the market stabilize in the future? What will be the short-term rebound to? Do you want to buy the bottom? Do you want to cut meat? Will it bounce back on Friday?

Actually, there is so much to say above. It is estimated that it is also the mountains and rivers looking for soulmates. It's okay if you're willing to watch popular science. If you want to know how to trade, you are probably only interested in the following questions.

Focusing on these six issues of general concern. The eldest of the Li family talked about his own views.

In terms of why this continuous plunge has occurred. It has been analyzed many times in the past two days. The technical overbought is serious and must be adjusted. The first signs of this were already evident at the end of April. Do you really think that the eldest son of the Li family is the strand where everyone is drunk alone and I am sober? are talking about indicators, haven't you noticed that the indicators are dulled at a high level in winter? A high death fork, what is this not a knife that kills people? The other is the capital shortcoming caused by deleveraging and intensive issuance of new shares. The market bleeds. It is difficult for the relevant parties to tolerate the mad cow in the early stage, and they hope to see the Chinese version of the slow cow, and all kinds of funds understand it.

It is estimated that in the future, stock fairies should often see fast falls and slow rises. The new normal is not a big deal, but everyone must adapt to the stock market situation as soon as possible. Can't get used to it. The law of the jungle will weed out people......

At what point will the market stabilize in the future? This point has also been analyzed recently, and I will add to it. The Shanghai Composite Index's 30-day moving average of 4120 points is supported, and it closed below on Thursday, but there is still a pullback. It is not necessarily effectively broken. In addition, the 34-day moving average has support and will move to around 4070 on Friday. It's a big support level. In addition, the 3950-4030 point area is strongly supported, in the case that there is no major negative and the possibility of interest rate cuts is expected. The probability of an easy break or non-existent. Of course, the eldest son of the Li family did not dare to say this, and Mr. Market often drew the mouths of stock critics.

Then let's look at the interest rate cut. What is the short-term rebound to?

4230-4270 points are expected to be seen in the course of next week's rally. As for whether it can rebound to a higher point, the brother believes that it will be a little difficult, at least in the short term, unless there are unexpected major positives. Will there be? 600 billion social security can help the fire, and other ......

Then here comes the key question. Do you want to buy the bottom?

This depends on your position. For friends who strictly control the position in 3-7 according to the advice of the Li family, it is definitely worth buying the bottom, now is the adjustment stage of the big bull market, and there will be new highs in the future, don't be too afraid. For short-term masters, be a left-hand trader, as the market continues to fall, enter in batches, and buy the bottom until the full position is full?

Of course, stable friends can also wait for the market to stabilize before talking, and wait and see. If the interest rate is really cut, the market will inevitably perform today.

But you're smashed down with a full warehouse. This rally has nothing to do with you. Wait until you get there......

Many people ask me if I want to cut meat?

Treat individual stocks differently. If you hold a recent increase and buy near the high, it is necessary to come out first after a rebound of 10-15%. The golden spot is on Monday and Tuesday. Morning Brother Dong is right!

Except, of course, for independent bull stocks and extremely strong stocks. If you hold it that has been adjusted before the market for many days and is not bought at the highest price, you can wait patiently for the rebound, have the opportunity to make a profit, and if you have funds in hand, you can make up the position to spread the cost. For example, the shares of Minhe, which were received by the stock fairies around 12 yuan on Wednesday, fell to 11.26 yuan on Thursday, and it is estimated that they are all set for the time being. But at least there is a chance to return to above $12 for a short time.

With such a stock, it makes no sense to cut the meat at the current price, at least after the rebound. There are too many similar stocks to list them all.

Then the most important question comes. Will it bounce back on Friday? Definitely!

As for the strength of the rebound, it depends on the joint force of the market, but at least it will stabilize, and it is impossible to continue to fall, and it should be absolutely impossible. Why are you so sure?

There are at least four reasons: after Thursday's market hours, the media reported that the 600 billion social security fund will enter the market significantly earlier, and the guidance of this public opinion will definitely have an effect; The short-term fell too fast and too deep, oversold, and the counterattack was imminent; The new funds began to flow back to the secondary market on Friday, and the capital side eased a lot; The possibility of a weekend interest rate cut is very large, the market has continued to rise wildly in the past few weeks, and everyone is worried that the weekend will be bearish, and this week will fall so badly, but it may be good. This possibility, cannot be ruled out, at least expected.

In terms of specific operation, before May Day, the Li family said "fight and retreat, and constantly reduce the position", and now the Li family tells you "fast in and out, don't love the war" (to be continued......