Section 469 Hidden Concerns in the Capital Market
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One day in February of the fourth year of the Imperial Empire, in a very upscale restaurant on Rue Mantofil, a stock investor was having dinner with a banker, and he took the opportunity to ask the banker for some tips on buying common stocks, but the banker's expression was stern, he shook his head and said, "It's better not to touch common stocks, the current stock price is really a bit outrageous!" He went on to analyze: "Although there has been a decline in recent times, you must know that this round of bull market has lasted for a long time, and there will never be a stock price that only rises and does not fall, not to mention that the stock market is changing rapidly, so a sharp decline is likely to happen soon." Of course, if you choose your stocks well, you may be able to avoid the danger of this decline and even make some profits, but I don't dare to take this risk, I would rather wait and see what happens. ”
From the principle of conservatism in the operation of capital, the banker is quite right. But Americans at that time had long been carried away by the extreme prosperity of the Coolidge era, and as early as the thirteenth year of the Republic, those who had profited from the real estate boom in Florida had begun to pour their surplus money into the New York stock market, and with the influx of this hot money, the price of common stock was once pulled up to a fairly high position.
In August of the third year, the Federal Reserve took a series of measures to add fuel to the burning stock market, including a reduction in the rediscount rate of the dollar from 4% to 3.5%, and government bonds were allowed to trade freely, so the stock market heated up again. The Fed did this because the European stock market had been sluggish at the time, and several European countries were struggling to keep their currencies from depreciating. If the Fed lowers the dollar rediscount rate to a certain level, it will effectively prevent gold from accumulating further in the United States, which can help Europe get out of the shadow of currency depreciation, and at the same time bring tangible benefits to its own foreign trade.
In addition, the Fed also believes that the current business in the United States has stagnated, and if the rediscount rate is lowered, it may be able to stimulate the trade market and allow the economy to recover. But what the Fed did not expect happened, and the reduction of the discount rate made the stock market, which had been "feverish" for a long time, become feverish.
In the first three years, the U.S. stock market was heating up throughout the year. The number of loans lent by all securities brokers rose from $2.818 billion at the beginning of the year to $3.558 billion at the end of the year, an increase of $740 million. And on December 3, the fourth year of the first year, the stock trading volume in the New York stock exchange market hit a record high again. The number of people who own stocks is expanding rapidly, whether it is a bustling metropolis like New York or San Francisco, or even in the rural towns of the plains, investors abound, and these shareholders always talk about the same topic after dinner: stocks. The U.S. is supporting the stock market from top to bottom, and once there is weakness, President Coolidge and Treasury Secretary Andrew ?? Mellon will make a speech to reassure shareholders at the right time.
Contrary to the soaring stock price, in the second half of the fourth year of the Republic of Japan, business activity plummeted, and the decline was almost irreversible. In February of the fifth year of the Lunar New Year, the president of the New York Charity Association wrote a report: "The current unemployment rate is the highest in the post-war period, a record in history." In this situation, stock commentators and some analysts have begun to warn investors repeatedly, and Moody's Investors Service said: "At the moment, the price of the stock has far exceeded expectations, the stock market is operating in a very irrational state, and no one knows how much effort it will take to adjust the stock market to its normal state." But such warnings went unheeded.
On March 1, Moody's again declared: "Only after money has become excessive, and banks have to encourage credit expansion, will the public be able to gradually change the current state of mind in the bear market." On March 3, the Harvard Economic Association also analyzed, "It can be seen from the stock market in February that stock market trading is currently entering a stage of readjustment, and in the middle of the stock market, the stock price will inevitably decline, but it should not cause a sharp decline, nor will it evolve into a great depression in the stock market." ”
On March 4, it was several months after President Coolidge declared that he would "not run in the 1928 presidential election," but there was little disbelief in his remarks that he "abstained from the election." What makes the market full of expectations is that from 1921 to 1928, Hoover, who served as Secretary of Commerce for the two administrations of Harding and Coolidge, his candidacy also added a new fanatic factor to the big bull market. But behind this curtain there are two unknown black hands at work, one of which is the official Rothschild legion. As the most valued son-in-law of the Rothschild family, Alfred has passed the age of confusion. As the new head of the Montague family, Montague took over the position of his uncle Winston and became the chairman of the board of directors of the Montague consortium and the earl of the British Empire. Riding on the Rothschild chariot, several major Jewish and Italian consortia, as well as several British and French banks, used agents to stir up trouble in the U.S. stock market, and large sums of gold were shipped back to Europe. Another Japanese banking syndicate dressed up as Japan's Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, Marubeni and other conglomerates is also using leveraged trading to fuel the stock market bubble, and most of the unemployed bank employees and finance graduates from Japan are operating on the front line, but they do not know that the all-Japan consortium that sent them abroad to the United States to make money is not a collection of Japanese chaebols as they imagined.
"Hashimoto-kun, how are those little mice doing? Are they suspicious of who they serve? ”
"They think they are working for the revival of Japan, and their desperate spirit is quite impressive, and they have already died two people suddenly, and there are many records of others falling into coma." Hashimoto's sober analysis: "Judging from the current situation, they have no suspicion at all that their service object is a Japanese consortium or even the Japanese government. ”
"Very well, in a few days Consul Kobayashi Rizaburo will come to visit them, and will promise them that they will truthfully report their contributions to His Majesty the Emperor. You arrange for someone to go and receive it. The cold young man said in Japanese.
"How did Consul Kobayashi know about this?"
"We arranged it, and with the help of domestic people, Xiaolin will definitely attach importance to this matter. Also, don't think of the intelligence agencies of the Americans as decorations, and occasionally they will be shrewd, and we need to provide them with a little evidence that can stand up to scrutiny. You don't want to show your face in person, after all, you are the general general, and maintaining a certain amount of mystery is good for you and for the whole operation. ”
"I understand, which industry is we targeting in the second phase of sniping? Kaga-kun. ”
"Instructions have just arrived, well, it seems like Detroit is a pretty fat target." The young man smiled slightly, and the whole poker face came alive, "Tomorrow we will start attacking with all our might, and we will not leave behind." ”
"Yes, Mr. Kaga." Hashimoto bowed and retreated, although he had broken away from the Black Dragon Society, but Hashimoto's gang habits had not changed much, and he was still submissive when facing the boss. However, the young man named Kaga didn't say anything else, Hashimoto retreated and began to arrange, and the boss's instructions must be conveyed to the grassroots traders as soon as possible.
On the day, GM's stock opened at $139.75 and rose to $144.25 just two hours after the market opened, suggesting that shareholders who bought the company's shares had made more than $5 since the previous day's close. According to the stock trading volume on March 4, the total number of shares on this day did not exceed 1.2 million shares, but General Motors' shares accounted for almost one-third of the total, so the investment boom in the spring of the first five years also kicked off.
Leading the rally was General Motors' stock, which rose by more than $2 a day, and the stock price record was "broken" day by day. Affected by this stock price, the stock prices of other companies, such as U.S. Steel Corporation, American Radio Company, Montgomery ?? Ward's share price has also risen steadily. On March 9, GM's stock price suddenly jumped $9.25, a phenomenon that surprised stock commentators. On Saturday, Wireless's common stock had risen by another $12.75, surpassing General Motors, and the stock closed at $120.5.
Such a surge is really confusing to the usual cautious bankers and stock forecasters. "What the hell is going on? Isn't it crazy that in such a market environment where trade is weak and credit is inflated, there will be such a high and staggering stock price? This is a question in the hearts of many people. On the other hand, deep-pocketed speculators invariably ridicule these experts: "You guys are so conservative! How can you make a lot of money if you are so timid? "These people are named after William?? Durant, Arthur?? Caton, the Fisher brothers, and John?? Lascob, for example, bought frantically despite the high stock prices, believing that the current stagnation of national production was only temporary, and that it would not be long before the economy would improve. So they're very bullish on GM's share price in the automotive industry.
But what they didn't know was that the radio industry was on a path of maturity, profits were very stable, and with the advancement of science, the American Radio Company had the potential to become the largest radio company in the world. Automobiles and radios were new things that appeared in the 10 years after the war, and it was these two products that quickly entered thousands of households, which shows how rapid the development of these two industries was, so speculators favored these two industries the most.
By this time, there were more and more examples of the stock market turning a person into a millionaire overnight, and the temptation to do so was irresistible to most Americans, and who wouldn't want to get rich quickly? Therefore, as long as the stock market rises, most people will immediately buy stocks, and will not study and predict the future situation at all, and are even more reluctant to listen to forecasters. Because of this, these speculative giants are not worried at all, because they know that the enthusiasm of shareholders will not be extinguished now.
March 12 was a Monday, and people were surprised to find that the front pages of the major newspapers were full of reports about the stock market. And from the morning of this day, the stock market rose wildly, in which the American Radio stock opened at $120.5 and closed at $138.5, and all stocks were generally bullish. Towards the end of the day, the market display in the stock trading hall showed that the total trading volume of the day was 3.87 million shares, but in fact, the real trading volume was even larger, because the market trading was 6 minutes faster than the market display, and the exchange seemed to become a battlefield all of a sudden.
On March 13, the mood of American investors was like a "roller coaster". It was a surprise surprise that the opening price of American Radio was $160 that morning, an increase of $21.5 from the previous day's closing price. The person who owns the shares of the American Radio Corporation secretly congratulates himself on making a windfall. But in the morning, the officials of the stock exchange issued a statement that immediately poured cold water on the shareholders. This was a statement about the stock exchange officials to investigate whether there was a technology monopoly in the current stock market, so some shareholders began to sell radio shares, causing the stock price to fall to $140, and in the afternoon, a new news came from the stock market: a large broker was liquidated for illegal operations, which was good news, so the radio stock price rose to $155, which was still $7.5 higher than the previous day, and the shareholders breathed a sigh of relief. However, the trading volume of this day was so large that the market display lagged by a full 12 minutes compared to the actual trading.
After 3 days, the market monitor lagged for nearly 33 minutes due to the huge trading volume, and people's expectations for the stock gradually increased, and some people even shouted the slogan "Reaching the goal of 5 million shares per day is not a dream".
On March 20, stocks began to rise in general again, among which the stock of American Radio rose by $18; GM shares rose by $5. By March 26, the total trading volume of the stock market hit another record high. But just when people were full of anticipation, on the 27th, there was another selling frenzy in the stock market, and no one knows what the reason was, and this selling frenzy caused the stock price of General Motors to plummet. In such a situation, only a large amount of buying can curb the downward momentum of the stock. So on the 27th, the total trading volume of the stock market suddenly reached 4.79 million shares.
When the whole of the United States let down its vigilance, only a few stood on the iceberg and watched in despair as the giant ship of the United States crashed head-on into the iceberg. The strong landing of the huge European Jewish consortium and the follow-up of the Japanese consortium, which operated like an army, were like pouring tons of trinitro*toluene into the crater of a volcano, waiting only for the earth-shattering roar and obscuring smoke and dust.
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