"To stimulate domestic demand, we still have to rely on financial leverage." Miao Ruoxi from the Department of Foreign Economics is always the first to speak, and she is used to it, and she is more or less American straightforward when she studies in the United States. "It is necessary to activate the investment market through the issuance of treasury bonds and other active fiscal and monetary policies, and activate the consumer market through economic levers such as credit, so as to stimulate economic growth. For a large developing country like China, the most important force driving economic growth is still domestic demand, which is a solid foundation for China's economic development. ”

Wu Yunzhang, a member of the Basic Science Department, then stood up and expressed his views, having just done an economic survey in the central and southern regions. He said: "For a long time, we have positioned the driving force of economic growth on the "troika" of investment, exports, and consumption, and in fact we are indeed using the "troika" to drive economic growth, especially since the outbreak of World War I in the sixth year of the Republic, foreign trade has become the main driving force for our rapid development. Now if external demand fails, domestic demand will be stimulated, and if investment fails, consumption will be stimulated. However, in fact, the "troika" is only the three components of GDP, and it is only the result of economic growth, not the cause, and it is only a means to smooth out economic fluctuations in special periods such as economic downturn or economic crisis, not a means to stimulate economic growth in ordinary times, and long-term reliance on them will have huge side effects and sequelae. ”

"Oh, do you think we can't effectively stimulate domestic demand through financial leverage and tax leverage? Is it necessary for the state to invest in the construction of 100,000 kilometers of railways and 1 million kilometers of highways to stimulate domestic demand? Miao Ruoxi asked rhetorically, everyone knows her straightforward nature, and Wu Yunzhang doesn't care about her.

"Yes, you are right, but it is not comprehensive, it can be said that the national infrastructure is indeed a good way to stimulate the economy in a short period of time, but the credibility of the government's finances is the foundation to ensure this policy. I think that financial leverage is not that it cannot be used, but that it should be used cautiously, and once it is taken advantage of by foreign financial giants to make money in China, the gains outweigh the losses. Wu Yunzhang prefers to see the development of the real economy, and he has a very strong resistance to finance, so it is reasonable to have some friction with Miao Ruoxi, who studied finance and international political economy at Harvard.

"National economic construction is a huge and complex social system project, and there are tens of thousands of construction projects, including local projects. Of course, among them, those with high energy consumption, high pollution, and repeated convergence should be screened and eliminated. Although the state can increase investment in infrastructure construction projects, which can stimulate domestic demand, and generally convert 4O% of investment funds into consumption funds, its contribution to driving related industries and people's livelihood consumption is very different. Therefore, at present, the central government should focus on major areas such as railways, highways, bridges, airports, power stations, and high-tech industries. Comparatively speaking, the pull effect of railway investment is greater. Because of the rapid development of China's iron and steel metallurgical industry in recent years, the production capacity is close to 40% of the total international steel output, and the actual output is 27 million tons. Under the invasion of the international economic contraction, China's export automobile market is depressed and cold, the domestic real estate market is full of birds, and the steel industry is already cold. In the first six months of this year alone, the product prices of China's large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises fell by 38.6% year-on-year. Profit fell by 32.2%. This reflects the recession of China's manufacturing industry from one side. "Wu Yunzhang is very well prepared, and his data are all from the Economic Intelligence Analysis Center of the National Investigation Bureau and his actual investigation.

"During the Second Five-Year Plan period, if the state invests 300 billion yuan in railway construction, including railways, bridges, tunnels, culverts and supporting projects, there are 150 super-large and large-scale engineering projects under construction, and the railways in the central and southwest regions alone will increase from more than 2,800 kilometers to more than 5,700 kilometers. All railway construction projects are estimated to consume more than 10 million tons of steel, which will not only help the normal production of the iron and steel metallurgical industry, but also play a role in stimulating the mining, cement, machinery, power and other industries, and can ensure the employment of millions of workers, and this year's railway investment alone is estimated to increase GDP by 1.5%. ”

Needless to say, this Wu Yunzhang used the core strategy of Roosevelt's New Deal in advance. After the first world economic crisis from 1929 to 1933, US President Franklin D. Roosevelt implemented a New Deal aimed at revitalizing the US economy. However, despite the novelty and effectiveness of many measures, due to the lack of attention to people's livelihood, the poor did not benefit first, and the results were not as satisfactory as expected, laying the foundation for the abnormal development of the US economy later.

"Investing in infrastructure is a good idea, of course, but if you ask the government where the money comes from, don't tell me if it's borrowing foreign debt or running a printing press." Of course, Miao Ruoxi understands the key to this, and she also knows that the government's capital reserves are not as good as when the Republic was ten years old, and the civil war in recent years and the northern intervention in garrison and naval construction have become gold-swallowing beasts that devour the country's capital reserves.

"Attracting foreign investment, raising financial markets, issuing treasury bonds, and adjusting the tax structure are all methods, isn't this your Miss Miao's specialty? How can there be no way. Wu Yunzhang rubbed the demon unhurriedly, and asked Miao Ruoxi to send a pair of sanitary balls.

"Both of their opinions are practical, and I think it is important not to be discarded." Wu Jingxiong of the Justice Division may be overly heavy on the Sichuan dialect, and he usually speaks in a slow tone and pays attention to the clear articulation. "But I think it's more about balance now. It is necessary to pay attention not only to the balance of the industry, but also to the balance of the region. Even within a region or industry, it is necessary to pay attention to comprehensive balance, and there should be no gaps. In the past few years, due to limited financial resources, the division of warlords, and the work of officials in various localities to make trouble with their political achievements, the gap between the education and medical and health industries, departments, and units in China's livelihood projects has really widened, so that the trend of choosing schools and hospitals has become more and more intense. Taking primary and secondary schools as an example, the level of modernization of key middle schools and key primary schools under the eyes of local governments, such as several key primary and secondary schools in Jinan, is comparable to that of famous schools in the United States. There are also huge disparities in health care units. The situation of different hospitals in the same city or even on the same road can be very different. Some hospitals have first-class equipment, superb medical skills, and overcrowded patients, and it is more difficult to be hospitalized than to ascend to the sky. In some hospitals, patients are scarce, not to mention the poor equipment, and even the daily expenses are poor. Therefore, I believe that governments at all levels should take advantage of the shareholder trend of "expanding domestic demand," focus their money on backward areas and units, narrow the gaps, and begin to conscientiously solve various social problems, such as the tide of school choice and school choice, which the people are extremely dissatisfied with, pay off old debts, and improve the government's image among the people. In this way, it can also develop backward regions and industries, create domestic demand, and be more long-term and sustainable than simply engaging in infrastructure construction or financial stimulus. ”

"I agree with Brother Xiong's words, this time I went back to my hometown Leting for a vacation, and I also took the opportunity to do a small research, of course I am a layman, if there is something wrong, please correct." Li Weichang of the Party Affairs Section is the oldest, and he is always inconspicuous, but his teacher, Chen Tianhua, is very aware of the student's talent and ambitions. "I also found the imbalances that the bear found, as well as some other problems, which I summarized as follows:

"1. The effective demand is insufficient, there is a lack of commodities in short supply, and many products are unsalable.

2. The purchasing power of farmers is low, and the current farmers may be able to solve the problem of food and clothing, but it is only so, and they lack the financial resources to consume.

3. The traditional concept of consumption needs to be updated urgently, the savings rate of urban residents is on the high side, and the consumption capacity has not been released.

4. The social security system is not perfect enough, and the people themselves are responsible for birth, old age, sickness and death, so they have to maintain a high savings rate.

5. The income of the majority of residents is generally low, the proportion of wages in the primary distribution is declining, the distribution structure is unreasonable, and there is no strong middle class.

6. Vested interest groups are excited about expanding investment demand and are apathetic or helpless about expanding consumer demand. Many groups are satisfied with meeting the income expectations of shareholders and the income stability of employees, so there is no more progress, and the idea of seeking stability is serious.

7. The collusion between government and business distorts the real estate market, the price mechanism fails, the inability to rationally allocate resources, and the inability to start the final consumer market also affects the sustainability of investment demand in various industries. ”

"I think these questions are very good for Brother Shouzheng! Our eyes should not always float on it, pay attention to the macro economy, but also bend down to look at the people's rice bags, vegetable baskets, how many feet of flower cloth can be pulled all year round, and a few catties of cottonseed oil can be bought. Zhou Zhongfu stood up, and his speech made the elderly colleagues present reflect on it.

"Let me give you an example, let's say that a gold mine is found in a place, and a person invests in a mine, hires 100 workers to pan for gold for him, and makes a profit of 10 million a year, and the mine owner pays 50% of it as a worker's salary, and each worker earns 50,000 yuan a year, and they take 10,000 yuan to rent a house, and the remaining 40,000 can get married, have children, and start a family, and the mine owner still has 5 million in his hand, which can be invested. Because the workers have money in their hands and want to settle down, there is a demand for houses. So the mine owner used the money in his hand to build a house, rent it to the workers, or sell it to the workers. The workers want to eat and drink, so they open restaurants and earn back the money in the hands of the workers. When the restaurant opened a restaurant, other workers had to be hired, so the workers' wives had employment opportunities and income. A family's consumption demand is even greater. In this way, after a few years, 100 families appeared in this place. Children want to study, there is a need for education, so people come to run schools, workers want to date, they want to spend, they want to do other things, so there are movie theaters, there are shops, so that after 50 years, when the mines in this place are about to be dug up, it has become a prosperous city of about 100,000 people. Everyone smiled heartily when they listened to his in-depth example, and Zhou Zhongfu's example just illustrated the cyclical characteristics of stimulating domestic demand and stimulating the economy.

"Suppose the same gold mine is discovered, the same people come to invest in mining, the same 100 workers are hired, and the same profit is 10 million a year, but the mine owner pays 10% of it as a salary, 10,000 yuan a year for each worker. This money is only enough for them to barely fill their stomachs, and they have no money to rent a house, no money to ask for a wife, so they can only live in a shack. The mine owner earns 9 million a year, but when you look at the eyes full of poor people, there will be no need to reinvest anything locally. So, he transferred the money abroad, because it was not safe at all in the local area, he built a few luxury villas, hired a few workers as bodyguards, the workers had no future, except for working hard to make ends meet, there was no other need at all. The only thing that may be a drama is to find a way to trick a wife, give birth to a beautiful daughter, and maybe marry a mine owner as a wife. After 50 years, there is still no property in this place except luxury villas. When the mine is finished, the mine owner leaves with a huge amount of money, and the workers are either exiled, or the men are thieves and the women are prostitutes. Zhou Zhongfu's words made the children of those families blush a little, and there were already such elders in their families who were desperate for luxury and did not care about the lives of the workers.

They didn't know that outside the discussion room, several bigwigs in the monitoring room were enjoying the pre-conference panel discussion. Looking at these outstanding young people, although there were no words of praise, the faces of Xu Lao, Xiong Lao, Meng Lao, Zhang Nanjiang and Wu Chenxuan were already smiling that could not be concealed.