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At this time, in the office of Tianpeng Fund, there were only two people, Li Dabao and Gongsun Qi.

After Gongsun Qi made sure that there was no eavesdropping and recording equipment in the office, he began to give Li Dabao dry goods.

Li Dabao heard Gongsun Qi say that he wanted to make a simple mental model of the sea for himself. After saying a good word, there was an indescribable feeling of excitement in my heart.

Gongsun nodded, followed up with what he said just now and said with a smile: "Then start, let's think about if, according to the expectation theory, the initial greedy sentiment value of the shareholders is 0, and after we control the market, the greedy sentiment value of the shareholders is positioned at 2, how can we let them burst out the greed in their hearts?" Is it a sudden pull up the stock price? Acceleration from zero to two? Or is it zero plus three minus one, or is zero minus two plus four equals two, or is zero plus ten minus eight equals two? ”

Li Dabao's brows furrowed tightly, and after listening to Gongsun Qi finish talking about this simple mental model formula, he understood what he was referring to.

Zero is the bottom line, that is, the initial state of not making money, since it is zero, there must be no loss of money if you don't make money.

The sudden acceleration to two is nothing more than a large pull-up, and the acceleration to four must be the feeling of two consecutive daily limits, and ten is to say that the sudden suspension of trading, and then the continuous rise after the opening, right?

Thinking of this, Li Dabao didn't speak, just looked at Gongsun Qi quietly, and motioned for him to continue.

Gongsun Qi looked at Li Dabao's eyes and said with a smile: "Dabao, you can't be like this!" Wouldn't it be nice for you to follow along? ”

"Hehe, Mr. Gongsun, in fact, if I choose to sit in the bank, I choose to use the third method!" Li Dabao and Gongsun Qi interacted for a while.

Gongsun Qi nodded with satisfaction and said: "As far as the psychology of shareholders is concerned, your choice is indeed correct!" The first type has a greedy gain of 2. The second type also has a return of 2, but because there is a process of adding one more and one more turn, it is slightly better than the first one. We can control the greed in the hearts of shareholders better! But ......"

Li Dabao went on to say at this time: "But the third type of greedy return is 0, but the psychological return of retail investors and the actual return are two different things!" , that is, it is very normal to gain and lose, and it is not the same. yes......"

Gongsun smiled and nodded. Then he continued: "Yes, but the theoretical return of the fourth type seems to be minus two, but it is not! Because we first suppressed the stock price, and then we were raising it! So in this process of minus two. Retail investors have silently lowered their mental expectations, and we are tantamount to controlling their mental income expectations from -2.

In fact, this true greedy gain should be four. This is also a perfect fit for the principle of suppressing the stock price before the breakout!

And the fifth, the return is -14, but this is really the most undesirable mental control! ”

Li Dabao frowned, he didn't quite understand why he was so analogous to the control in his heart. Although I don't understand, I always feel that it seems to be very powerful, as if it contains countless knowledge points.

I don't know how to do it, but that's what I mean.

Li Dabao lowered his head and wrote this mathematical model formula in a notebook with the tip of a pen.

When Gongsun Qi was writing something in Li Dabao, he said very quickly: "While Liu Dongwei is not here, I will talk to you more, and the next thing is the irrational decision-making theory I want to talk about." ”

Li Dabao kept the tip of the pen in his hand, turned his head to look at Gongsun Qi and said, "Please continue to ......"

Gongsun Qi raised his hand and rubbed it under the tip of his nose, picked up a cigarette in his hand, and after Li Dabao put down the pen and hurriedly lit the cigarette, he heard Gongsun Qi say: "Kahneman has found through a large number of experimental studies that even the most skilled gambler is not always rational in his decision-making. ”

Li Dabao frowned, and looked at Gongsun Qi with a bit of dazed eyes. "Gamblers' attitudes and behaviors toward risk often deviate from the assumptions of the optimal behavior model of traditional economic theory. In the decision-making process of gamblers, there is not only a bias in intuition, but also a bias in dependence on the framework. Gamblers often make different, even contradictory, choices about the same problem at different times. ”

"Yes! Isn't this often the case for stockholders? Li Dabao thought for a while and said.

Gongsun Qi smiled, took a puff of cigarette, and said indirectly: "Modern casinos have quite a deep study of the psychology of gamblers. Without exception, when losing money, gamblers will show all kinds of irrational behaviors more or less, for a longer or shorter time. ”

As he spoke, Gongsun Qi paused, and when he looked at Li Dabao frowning, he commented, "What are you thinking?" ”

"I think that investors not only have irrational behaviors when they are in a hurry, but also make money, but also often have irrational behaviors. Popularity...... Why so greedy? ”

"Nonsense! People are not greedy, don't we all drink the northwest wind? After Gongsun Qi said a word, he smiled helplessly and said: "I went on to say: The most obvious and classic one is called winning, shrinking and losing. When gamblers win, they only think about being rich and keeping the fruits of victory, and the stakes are getting smaller and smaller; And when you lose, regardless of the risk, you just want to pull the capital, and the stakes will get bigger and bigger. ”

Li Dabao nodded. The sea of shares is like a gambling game. This is especially true in China!

At this time, I heard Gongsun Qi say: "However, at the last moment of loss, when the gambler loses to the last chip (for example, 10,000 loses to only 500), according to the ideas of normal people and even normal gamblers, at this time they should also fight hard, rather take a certain risk, but also strive to win all the money back; However, at this time, the mentality of the vast majority of gamblers is to keep this last chip no matter what, and for this, they would rather give up hope of victory. ”

Li Dabao suddenly interjected and said, "This is just like in "The Count of Mount Gido", right? ”

Gongsun Qi frowned, and then listened to Li Dabao continue: "After Dungelar was extorted five million francs by robbers, he desperately wanted to keep the last fifty thousand francs, and he used it as a lifesaver in a psychedelic way. ”

"yes...... So, knowing this theory, how should we apply it? After Gongsun Qi finished asking, he said to himself: "One: let the retail investors lose the last chips, and then do the opposite, win back everything?"

Two: Let the shareholders lose the last chips, and then work hard to keep them.

Three: Let the shareholders lose the last chips, and then work hard, and finally lose. It's simple, isn't it?

Of course, "irrational decision theory" is anything but simple. Casino dealers often use their gestures, words, eyes, and other ways to prolong this period of time during the gambler's irrational time period; Let gamblers lose as much as they can before they regain their senses. In fact, the vast majority of the casino's revenue comes from the irrational time period of gamblers who win and lose. ”

Li Dabao sighed beside him: "Shareholders are really losing, and letting the dealer take away all the chips in his hand is not also an irrational time?" ”r1152

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