Chapter 243: Who's going to fight

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Liu Wei's proposal made Orel's boss unable to refuse. The focus of www.biquge.info is not the dividends mentioned by Liu Wei, but strategic intelligence that is closely related to Russia's national interests.

With the continental United States suffering the heaviest blow since the Civil War, everyone knows that the next war is imminent. It won't be long before the United States will do something against a certain country. Compared to the previous wars waged by the United States, the surname of this war is very different. The main reason is that the United States has suffered a heavy blow to its national strength, and it is difficult to achieve a relatively satisfactory result as it did in the attacks on Iraq and Afghanistan.

From the point of view of Russia, it is necessary to take into account the consequences of the war unleashed by the United States.

Join the United States in targeting Iran, and even if Russia does nothing, the United States will be mired in war, and Iran will become the Vietnam of the 21st century. In a few years, the United States will lose the war and subsequently lose its global hegemony. With the United States unable to maintain the international order, it is only a matter of time before the emerging powers rise, and Russia can benefit from it. It's just that Russia doesn't want to see a regional power like Ben become a new threat without the constraints of the United States, so Russia needs relevant intelligence.

Helping Liu Wei transfer assets can get the information he needs, which is not a big price.

After hitting it off with Orel, Liu Wei took a back seat and handed over the specific affairs to the gray-backed jackal, who completed the specific work through the financial investment company of Little Capuya.

At this point, Cronin was dealing with a new issue.

After reaching an agreement with Scott, Cronin must make a decision on the issue of war, that is, whether to start a war before Scott takes office.

From his own point of view, he definitely didn't want to do that.

The day he moved into the White House, Cronin knew that he was just a spokesman for interest groups, or rather a temporary steward of the White House. By the beginning of next year, he will have to hand over the keys to the White House to the next president. In just a few months, Cronin did not want to go down in history, let alone leave a stench for thousands of years.

It's just that in Scott's opinion, the best option is still to let Cronin carry the black pot.

If Cronin starts a war and fights well, Scott can sit back and enjoy it, and if he doesn't fight well, he can save the American army from the dire situation as a savior. What's more, the war was a decision made by the previous president and had no direct relationship with him, and therefore would not have an impact on his political image.

It's not that Scott doesn't dare to take responsibility, but he doesn't feel the need for it.

Somebody has to start a war, somebody has to make sacrifices. In that case, why not choose Cronin, who will only live in the White House for a few months, and drag Scott, who has to live for a few more years, into the water?

This view is also held by the Skull Party, which secretly dominates the basic policy of the United States.

The starting point of the Skull and Bones Party is not who benefits and who bears responsibility, but how to bring the greatest benefits to the United States, help the United States tide over difficulties, and maintain the hegemony of the United States.

It was Cronin who started the war to give the United States more room to maneuver.

To put it bluntly, if the direction of the war is not good for the United States, Scott can make adjustments after taking office, so that the United States will not go all the way to the end.

The likelihood of this happening is not small.

At that time, the Pentagon and the Lander Corporation each made a strategic review.

According to the Pentagon's assessment, if the spearhead is aimed at Iran, the war will be divided into three phases.

The first is the strategic bombing, which lasted for more than three months, completely destroyed Iran's strategic counterattack and strategic defense capability, seized air supremacy, and laid the foundation for the subsequent ground offensive. Because Iran's strength far exceeds that of Iraq after the Gulf War, its land area and population are three times that of Iraq, and it has the support of many countries, it has to set aside a period of time, but it must complete the strategic strike within six months at the latest.

This is followed by a ground offensive, which is expected to take between six months and nine months, and will focus on capturing ports in southern Iran, as well as major cities in the interior. Because Tehran is far from the coastline and far enough from the border, the US military will march to Tehran only after it has the absolute initiative in the war. Considering the actual situation in Iran, and especially the active will to fight among ordinary people, the ground war will certainly not be easy.

Finally, there is the occupation and sweep, which is expected to take between one and two years. The main tasks at this stage are to restore order, prop up the pro-American regime, and train a pro-American Iranian army. The long-term occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan has had a very serious negative impact on the global strategy of the United States. For a regional power like Iran, the most effective policy is not to occupy it for a long time, but to let the Iranians fight the Iranians.

According to this plan, the entire war operation will last more than three years.

The most critical phases are the first and second phases, which take at least one year. In other words, if a war were to be waged during the Cronin administration, by the time Scott took office, the direction of the war would have been clear, allowing him to decide the direction of progress based on the progress of the war.

In the report of the Ministry of Defense, the DPRK is highlighted.

Targeting North Korea is more complicated than attacking Iran. In any case, Iran does not have a few decent allies, but North Korea has the support of the mainland and even Russia. If these two powers enter the war, the chances of victory for the United States will be very slim.

According to the Pentagon's assessment, even if the mainland and Russia do not directly participate in the war, the consequences are difficult to predict.

After the outbreak of war, the mainland can follow the practice of more than 60 years ago and send volunteers to fight in Korea. Even if the mainland does not intend to engage in a face-to-face confrontation with the United States, it will provide weapons and equipment to the DPRK, and even provide strategic cover for the DPRK on non-frontal battlefields, such as sending the air force to participate in the war, dispatching the navy to protect the western coastline of the DPRK, and letting the air defense force protect the important strategic facilities behind the battle line. These measures can bring immeasurable trouble to the United States and make the United States have to pay a heavy price in this war.

In the face of a war with no chance of winning, there is no point in any war plan.

Even so, the Pentagon made an assessment. As with the fight against Iran, the combat operation against the DPRK is divided into three phases. In the first phase of strategic bombing, the United States will have to spend more time than committing almost all of its air power. It is optimistically estimated that with the mainland's active participation in the war, it will be very difficult for the US military to gain air supremacy on the Korean Peninsula in less than half a year. As for the next ground war, it will be more complicated. Not to mention facing the mainland volunteers, even against the Korean People's Army, which is not very well equipped and trained, the US military must prepare tens of thousands of body bags. The occupation of Korea is an unimaginably difficult task, because the North Korean people are unlikely to give up resistance, and the mainland will not allow the US troops to deploy troops on the Yalu River, and will certainly force the US troops to withdraw from Korea in various ways.

Compared to the Pentagon, the Rand's strategic assessment is much more conservative.

According to the strategic assessment report submitted to the White House, analysts at the Land Corporation believe that the possibility of the mainland being involved in the Korean War is very large, and it is even certain that as long as the US military crosses the 38th parallel and first breaks the armistice agreement, the mainland will fulfill the promise it made that year and send troops to fight in the DPRK again. With the mainland entering the war, the United States will not only be unable to win the war, but will also be very likely to lose South Korea. The reason is very simple: As long as the United States takes the initiative to provoke a war, the mainland will not give up and will certainly take this opportunity to help the DPRK complete its national reunification.

Even if Iran is attacked, the odds of victory are still not very good in the eyes of RAND's analysts.

These two assessment reports had a very great impact on the US authorities, and also made the Skull and Bones Party realize that in the face of a war that it is bound to lose but has to fight, it is possible to gain benefits from this war only by striving for favorable conditions as much as possible and leaving a way out.

In this way, it became an inevitable choice for Cronin to start a war and for Scott to come out and clean up the mess.

The problem is that not everyone believes that war should be waged as soon as possible.

At least in both houses of Congress, the vast majority of members of Congress believe that the first task of the US federal political axe is to find out the ins and outs of the Manhattan attacks, and then use the country's strength to rebuild, rebuild the self-confidence of the American people, and stabilize the social order at home.

War can only be waged if the country is stable.

This view is not unreasonable, but very realistic.

Some members of the Benjamin Party have made it clear that the key factor in waging war is the ability of the US federal government to pay for the huge war expenses.

Without money, what kind of war?

The reality is that the United States really does not have the funds to wage war.

Even if we do not take into account the loss of strategic reserves, because the gold belongs to the Federal Reserve Bank, which is privately owned, and has nothing to do with the Federal Axe, in the context of the domestic economic downturn, the total amount of national debt equivalent to a year's gross national product, and the sharp decline in the real purchasing power of the dollar, the Federal Axe will only have to raise taxes if it wants to start a war, which will inevitably have an impact on the reconstruction effort.

If the far-reaching impact of the Manhattan attacks is taken into account, especially the sharp decline in the dollar's position in international finance, it will be difficult for the US federal government to raise enough funds for the war effort, even if it simultaneously increases the issuance of Treasury bonds, raises taxes, and borrows from the Federal Reserve Bank.

The reality is very cruel, the federal axe has no money, it can't buy arms, and it doesn't want to start a war.

Although there is a solution, even if the country goes into a state of war, out of the orbit of the market economy, and the war dominates the basic affairs of the country, the congressman will certainly not do such a stupid thing, because it means handing over power to the president, and one person decides the fate of a country.

Also unwilling to start an immediate attack are the senior generals of the US military.

It's not that these generals don't want to fight, it's that they know perfectly well that a rash start of war with inadequate preparation will only lead to a crushing defeat.

The attack on Manhattan has already devastated the United States. Suffer another fiasco, and the United States will decline rapidly.

Of course, the US generals care about the officers and soldiers who are fighting on the front line, because a war that is doomed to defeat means that many American GIs will die on the battlefield tens of thousands of kilometers away from their hometowns.

(To be continued)