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The resurgence of tension on the four northern islands is somewhat unexpected. Pen × fun × Pavilion www. ｂｉｑｕｇｅ。 ｉｎｆｏ

What is even more incomprehensible is that it was not Yuben who took the initiative to provoke the incident this time, but Russia.

After the Russian president announced the deployment of an additional squadron of strategic bombers to the Far East, as well as thirty-six Su-35 fighters that have been in service for less than half a year, the four northern islands immediately became a global hot spot. Less than a day later, the Russian Ministry of Defense released another shocking news: the first Mistral-class amphibious landing ship commissioned a month ago was sent to the Far East and incorporated into the Pacific Fleet.

Although in terms of scale, the additional troops sent by Russia to the Far East are not very strong, and the political significance of this move is far greater than the military significance, but for the four northern islands, Russia is not strengthening the forces in the Far East, but provoking the Far East.

Among them, the most critical is the amphibious landing ship.

A few years ago, the Russian president finalized a contract with the French counterpart for the purchase of four Mistral-class amphibious landing ships, the first of which will be built in France, and the last three will be built in Russia with the technical assistance of France. According to Russia's plan, four amphibious landing ships will be deployed in the Northern Fleet and the Pacific Fleet, and the first of which will be built by France will join the Northern Fleet.

A warship can't change the balance of strength between the two sides, but it poses a very big threat to Yuben's ambitions.

You know, before that, Russia's Pacific Fleet was in vain, with less than ten main warships, and all of them were built during the Soviet era. What's more, none of these warships have the ability to project troops, and the Russian Navy uses to sustain the four northern islands with very inconspicuous small transport ships. Affected by this, for a long period of time, the Russian Navy was unable to effectively control the four northern islands, let alone send additional troops to the islands.

The arrival of the Mistral-class amphibious landing ship completely changed the situation.

With just one sortie, the battleship was able to send a battalion of ground troops to the four northern islands. Because it is not far from Russian ports in the Pacific, it will be within a few months that Russia will be able to deploy a reinforced brigade to the four northern islands, as the president has promised.

As the ground forces on the island strengthened, it was said that if he wanted to retake the four northern islands, he would need to take greater risks.

To put it simply, the army will not only seize air and sea supremacy, but also fight a ground war with the Russian army on the island.

Although in terms of troops, a reinforced brigade could not hold the four northern islands, it was enough to delay the pace of the army's offensive.

As long as the war drags on, Russia will have time to send more combat troops to the Far East and even launch strategic strikes on the mainland.

The result can be imagined, even if this recaptures the four northern islands, it will have to pay a heavy price.

The choice is in the hands of the book, to fight, or not to fight.

If he didn't fight, he could only watch Russia gradually strengthen the defense deployment of the four northern islands, so that he had to give up all military attempts.

If we want to fight, we have to hurry up and start fighting before Russia's military deployment is completed.

Within two days, Kojiro Ikawa held five cabinet meetings.

One of the topics discussed was whether or not to immediately attack the four northern islands.

Although the overwhelming majority of cabinet members have a tough stance and believe that the fight should be started immediately. On the parliamentary side, Kojiro Ikawa is also confident of winning the majority support. But when it came to making decisions, Kojiro Ikawa was still very cautious because he had to think about the consequences of the fight.

From the standpoint of Ikawa Kojiro, whether or not he will win the war is still a secondary issue, and the key is how much impact this war will have on US-Chinese relations.

You must know that before this, Cronin had repeatedly warned Ben not to cause trouble on the issue of the four northern islands.

Although Ikawa Kojiro did not expect the United States to send troops to help him, because according to the US-called alliance treaty, the four northern islands are not within the scope of US security protection and belong to the unresolved territorial dispute between the United States and Russia, but the support of the United States and the attitude of the United States towards the use of force to recover the four northern islands are still of great significance.

Kojiro Ikawa knew very well that taking this step would make his living space even narrower.

Not to mention anything else, the mainland and South Korea, which also have territorial disputes with Yuben, will be more vigilant and even regard Yuben as their number one opponent.

Looking at it more broadly, those countries that have suffered from this aggression will also be on higher alert.

In the entire Western Pacific, there will be no support.

Even for countries in other regions, the use of force to recover the four northern islands is beyond the scope of acceptance, at least it is difficult to be recognized by the international community.

Europe, for example, will certainly not support Ben's act of war.

It's not that Europe is afraid of Russia, but it's that it's very far away from Europe, it's a competitor in the international market, and Europe is very dependent on Russia for energy. Even from a legal point of view, Russia's long-term occupation of the four northern islands has long been recognized by the international community, and many countries regard it as a legacy that has not been resolved after World War II. If it is said that the fait accompli is changed through war, it is not much different from waging war.

Of course, we can not care about the attitude of these countries, but we cannot ignore the attitude of the United States.

At this time, the United States was preparing for the next war. No matter who the United States is going to fight, it needs a relatively stable international environment, and it absolutely does not want to get involved in a war that does not have any benefits at this time, even if this war does not require the United States to send troops.

Kojiro Ikawa is not a fool and knows very well the attitude of the United States on the issue of the four northern islands.

If the United States is ready to clean up Iran, it will certainly have to find a way to reassure Russia and get it to the sidelines, rather than supporting Iran in the war. In this way, the United States will certainly compromise with Russia on the issue of the four northern islands, and even refuse to provide support to Russia because of this.

Even if the United States targets North Korea, it will have to find a way to appease Russia.

Of course, this also involves the mainland, that is, the United States does not want the mainland to heighten its vigilance before making a move, still less does it want the mainland to force the United States to abandon its plan to attack the DPRK in other ways.

It can be said that the United States will absolutely not support the use of force on the issue of the four northern islands.

The problem is that there isn't much time left for Kojiro Ikawa to make decisions.

Three days after the announcement of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the amphibious landing ship departed from the Northern Fleet, accompanied by a frigate, to the North Atlantic, and then headed south to the Strait of Gibraltar with a "Modern" class destroyer that had completed mid-term maintenance in St. Petersburg. If all goes well, in twenty days the three ships will arrive in Vladivostok.

It is much easier to deploy ground troops, and they will certainly be in place before then.

Counting the time to send troops to the four northern islands, at most one month, Russia will be able to gain a firm foothold, so that Yue Ben has to give up the idea of non-separation.

If you don't make a decision within a month, you'll miss the best time to start.

It is not only Ikawa Kojiro who knows this, but also the militarists who control the Diet.

While Ikawa Kojiro was hesitating, 38 members of the Diet jointly sponsored a bill to retake the four northern islands, which clearly stated that the Cabinet and the military had the responsibility and obligation to retake the territory belonging to Saymoto and authorized the Prime Minister to take the necessary measures.

Although the proposed law does not impose a surname, the impact on Ikawa Kojiro is very large.

This is a very clear signal: if Kojiro Ikawa does not show toughness, the militarist clique will lose confidence in him.

The consequences, Ikawa Kojiro knows very well.

There is no shortage of candidates to be prime ministers, but there is a serious shortage of wise politicians.

Ikawa Kojiro is also ambitious, and he also believes that only by boosting his military strength can he get the respect and status he deserves, but he is not blind.

If war does not bring benefits to the capital, or if the consequences far outweigh the benefits, then there is no need.

The problem is that the situation has gotten out of control.

Under pressure from the Cabinet, Kojiro Ikawa had to send the Second and Third Fleets, which had been withdrawn, to Hokkaido after the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement.

A week later, the House of Commons passed the bill that left Kojiro Ikawa with no choice.

The next day, Ikawa Kojiro had no choice but to adopt the Ministry of National Defense's proposal and send four fighter wings deployed in Shikoku and Nanzhou to Hokkaido.

Although from the point of view of the mobilization of the army, the defensive quality still occupies a dominant position, after all, the navy also lacks the necessary force projection capability, and the air force lacks offensive equipment, but the impact of this move was not even expected by Ikawa Kojiro.

Russia's response was so swift that even the world's news media did not anticipate it.

Less than eight hours after the Ministry of Defense ordered the mobilization of fighter wings, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the holding of joint military exercises in the waters of South Sakhalin and the South Kuril Islands.

A day later, the Russian authorities announced that they would hold a military parade in the northern waters of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization with warships of the navies of various countries participating in the "SCO joint anti-terrorist exercise".

Now, another opponent of the book is also involved.

Although the mainland authorities immediately issued a statement after the Russian authorities released the news, declaring that their participation in the military parade organized by the Russian Navy was not aimed at any country, let alone interfering in the territorial dispute between Russia and the Russian Navy, when the two warships of the mainland navy appeared in the Lunar Sea, the impact on the Lunar Sea would certainly be very huge.

You must know that there are also territorial disputes between Ben and the mainland.

If the mainland secretly joins forces with Russia for the purpose of settling the territorial dispute with Russia, then the mainland will support Russia on the issue of the four northern islands.

The problem before him is that if he loses the war with Russia, he is likely to lose another war.

Kojiro Ikawa has realized the seriousness of the problem and has plans to stop. Maintaining the status quo will not cause any loss to the Ben, and rashly provoking a war will inevitably bear huge risks.

It's a pity that there are not many people as sensible as Ikawa Kojiro in the political arena.

In the eyes of some people, the mainland and Russia have secretly joined forces, which makes this opportunity even more precious. If the mainland is also prepared to settle territorial disputes with Yueben, then Yueben will forever lose the opportunity to recapture the four northern islands. Only by resolving the issue of the four northern islands as soon as possible can we shift our strategic focus to the south and deal with the strategic threat from the East China Sea.

(To be continued)