~,――~ "Don't be so secretive! Bush Sr. smiled mildly: "People say that an excellent boss, especially the kind of super-rich people, is usually more concerned about the international situation, I don't believe it, you really don't know anything!" ”

"Damn, it seems that if you don't say anything today, I'm afraid this old guy really won't believe it," Lin Yu looked at the old fox-like old Bush, and had to quickly flash some countermeasures in his heart.

It's hard to deceive a smart person, but if what you're saying isn't pure deception, then I believe that no matter how smart you are, you can't help but be fooled.

"Do you really want to hear my opinion on the international situation?" Lin Yu looked at Bush Sr., who had an unquestionable face. So, he nodded and said, "Okay, then I'll tell you a little bit about my own opinions!" ”

Lin Yu remembered that in his previous life, the main motivation for the United States to launch the Iraq War was to dominate international oil prices by controlling oil in Iraq and the Middle East, so as to hit European economic rivals.

The United States wants to win the war to take control of Iraq's major oil fields, and then subcontract them to oil companies in other countries for high profits. After the Gulf War, the United States gained huge oil benefits in this way. In the more than a year after the war, the price of oil was more than $20 higher than before the war, behind which the United States firmly controlled oil extraction, which drove nearly 1 percentage point of economic growth in the United States.

However, since the outbreak of the Iraq war, contractors, including France's Total and Russia's Lukoil, have pledged to cling to their oil contracts, claiming that they will remain valid under international law even if there is a regime change. Other contractors have also done a great deal of technical work in order to gain an advantageous position in negotiations with the new post-war regime. Therefore. Even if the United States wins the battle in Iraq, it will not be easy for the United States to gain control of the oil.

Take a step back. Even if the United States gains oil dominance. Since Iraq's oilfield equipment has become quite obsolete after more than 10 years of economic sanctions, and the current oil production is only 2 million barrels per day, it will be even more difficult to maintain current production after the war, and it will be at least two years before normal operations can be resumed. This is very different from the "speculation and sale" after the 1991 Gulf War.

Moreover. It was not impossible for Saddam Hussein to order the army to set fire to all the oil fields in a desperate situation. According to the latest reports. The Iraqi military has already set fire to several oil fields located in southern Iraq, and due to sandstorms, the US side simply cannot extinguish the oil field fires in a relatively short period of time.

Judging from the above analysis. It is unlikely that the United States will have the full control of oil as it did after the Gulf War. After the outbreak of the Iraq war. International crude oil prices fell for a time, but as the war evolved from a "quick war" to a long-term war, the vast majority of people in the international oil market were bullish on oil prices. Chief Economist of the American Petroleum Institute, John? Fermi acknowledged that every $5 increase in a barrel of oil price would reduce the U.S. economic growth rate by 0.3% over the next six months or more. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that oil prices are up $10 per barrel. The U.S. economy would grow by 0.5 percentage points.

The United States also has a strategy of getting EU countries and other countries to pay for its war. and participated in the post-war reconstruction of Iraq and the Middle East as a whole. This "money-asking" strategy of the United States was very effective during the 1991 Gulf War. At the time, 90 percent of U.S. spending was shared by countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Japan, and Germany. However, the situation in the current Iraq war is very different; due to the huge differences between the United States and France, Germany, Russia, and other countries, the United States has bypassed the United Nations and unilaterally used force against Iraq, and the possibility of receiving a positive share of military spending from various countries on the issue has been greatly reduced, and the strategy of "asking for money" has encountered tremendous resistance. Saudi Arabia, which shared the largest share of the war costs in the Gulf War, refused to contribute a penny to the war on the grounds that it was "100 percent opposed to attacking Iraq at home." The Japanese Government has also indicated that due to the deterioration of Japan's financial situation and the pressure of public opinion, Japan will no longer bear the war costs as it did during the Gulf War. Some countries have even asked the United States for compensation or economic assistance, for which the U.S. government will pay $30 billion, of which $6 billion will be gratuitous.

Even if the United States eventually occupies Iraq as it wishes, the issue of post-war reconstruction will be a source of anxiety for the United States. As a result of the reflection and lessons learned from the Kosovo war, the EU is unlikely to contribute generously to the post-war reconstruction of Iraq. EU officials have even openly stated that the perpetrators of the war should be held accountable for the consequences of the war.

As a result, the U.S. strategy of "asking for money" will be aborted, which will put a heavy burden on the U.S. finances. Before the war, President Bush had made public a budget of between $50 billion and $61 billion for war expenses. But this is only a budget, and as the war drags on, it is widely believed that the cost of the war will exceed $70 billion. Analysts predict that if the war spending on Iraq is taken into account, the US government's fiscal deficit in fiscal year 2003 may exceed $400 billion, and the US economic growth will be red.

On December 20, 1983, Rumsfeld, then a special envoy of US President Ronald Reagan, came to Baghdad, the capital of Iraq, where Saddam Hussein cordially received him and held talks with him. At that time, the two shook hands cordially, and Rumsfeld conveyed President Reagan's greetings to Saddam Hussein and said that he was "very happy to be able to come to Baghdad." Ramsfeld also told Saddam Hussein that the United States is ready to fully restore relations with Iraq. Saddam later said he was "very pleased" with Rumsfeld's visit because it "raised Iraq's relations with the United States to a new level." It can be said that Rumsfeld's trip to Iraq paved the way for the normalization of relations between the two countries. But according to declassified U.S. government documents, Rumsfeld's visit to Iraq came at a time when Iraqi forces were using chemical weapons against Iranian forces in defiance of international treaty bans. But at that time, the United States did not condemn Iraq at all in order to prevent Iran.

Declassified United States Government documents indicate that the United States National Security Council's Decision Order No. 114, adopted on 26 November 1983, decided that the United States Government would formally favor Iraq. According to U.S. officials during the Reagan administration, the main thrust of the decree was that the United States should do everything possible to prevent Iraq from losing the Iran-Iraq war. Rumsfeld's visit to Iraq a month later was to implement the US National Security Council's Decision No. 114.

As a direct result of Rumsfeld's visit to Iraq, the United States provided the Iraqi army with a great deal of military intelligence and billions of dollars worth of military and economic aid over the next five years. In order to facilitate Iraq's purchase of weapons from all over the world, the Reagan administration also implemented a secret operation plan code-named "consolidation" to ensure Iraq's continuous access to weapons while the United States did everything possible to prevent Iran from acquiring weapons. In addition, the Reagan administration has turned a blind eye to the export of dual-use goods by American companies to Iraq. A 1994 U.S. Senate investigation found that U.S. intelligence and logistical support played a key role in Iraq's Iran-Iraq war, and that Reagan and George H.W. Bush, the father of current U.S. President George H.W. Bush, authorized the sale of large quantities of biological agents, including variants of anthrax and plague viruses, to Iraq. These have become the main source of chemical and biological weapons in Iraq. Therefore, if today's Saddam Hussein is "a man-eating tiger", then this tiger was also fed by the United States!

Lin Yu still knew very well about the Iraq War, so he said: "I heard that Congress is very sensitive to the Middle East? ”

As soon as this was mentioned, Bush Sr. was very angry and said: "Those bastards in Congress know the benefits, and the interests are so easy to take?" In the end, all these bad things have to be blamed on my head. ”

"Forget it, let's not talk about it." Bush Sr. waved his hand helplessly and said, "After talking about the economy and the world situation, now let's talk about women!" I guess this topic must be handy for you? ”

"Don't say that." Lin Yu was flattered and said, "I'm already married, where is there anything to say?" ”

"Haha, do you still want to hide it from me?" Bush Sr. smiled and opened the drawer, then threw a stack of photos over: "See for yourself." ”

"Damn, you have this hobby again?" As soon as Lin Yu saw these photos, he immediately became angry, glared at Bush Sr. and said in a deep voice: "Mr. President, I think you should give me a perfect explanation for this matter." ”

Let's take a look at what these photos in Lin Yu's hand are! There are intimate photos of him and Evra, photos of him and Sophia hugging each other, photos of Liang Shiqi with him, and ...... In short, these photos are simply Lin Yu's best life photos.

"Angry?" Bush Sr. smiled and took out a bottle of red wine and two glasses from his desk, unscrewed the lid, and said with a smile while pouring the wine: "If you want to blame, you can only blame yourself!" ”

"Myself?" Lin Yu was simply angry, and sneered: "Although you have a state apparatus, you must know that I can still sue you for spying on my **." Hum! ”

"Hehe, don't be angry yet, come, let's have a drink!" Bush Sr. took out the wine, and then forcefully stuffed a glass in Lin Yu's hand. ~，――~