readx; The rapid growth of China's economy over the past 20 years since the reform and opening up may really obscure the horizon of the theoretical circles. Pen? Interesting? Pavilion wWw. ｂiquge。 infoThe current prosperity of Chinese society also seems to make busy Chinese economists have no time to reflect on what kind of science economics is. Such a "metaphysical" question.

After reading the "Economic Development and Institutional Reform" sent by Professor Tian Da, Qiao Wei, who is not very interested in economics, realized that economics is not an exact science like mathematics and physics, but a "moral science" that deals with human introspection, motivation, expectations, and values.

In short, the overall grasp of economics is the philosophy of economics. And economics, which is dedicated to proving theorems and deriving conclusions like geometricians, is, to put it bluntly, only the methodology of economics.

It is conceivable that if the content of the upgraded version of the "prosperous era alarm" is removed, its own foothold may cause an uproar in the economic community. Moreover, they used the Mundell-Fleming model, systems analysis, game theory, and other methods to deduce that if they did not carry out structural reforms that matched economic development in a timely and decisive manner, 26 possible and 12 inevitable economic and social problems would emerge within 15 to 20 years.

Twenty-six possibilities, twelve inevitable, where do the incumbent and outgoing central leaders put their faces? Qiao Wei's head is big, and he really doesn't know whether to submit this 10,000-word book of worrying about the country and the people. But for him, who had just taken office as deputy secretary of the Donghai Provincial Party Committee, he could not disappoint Professor Tian Da and his like-minded friends.

After all, a hero with three gangs, a fence and three piles, in this environment centered on economic development, he still needs a staff team that can give him advice. Otherwise, he would not have risked the world's condemnation to support Professor Tian Da in researching this controversial topic.

Because of this, the cautious Qiao Wei did not refuse, let alone go directly to Zhongnanhai, but first rushed to the Xishan Villa to ask an old-timer who has studied economics for advice.

The old-timers watched for more than two hours before taking off their reading glasses, massaging their swollen eyes, and said thoughtfully: "The point of view is very unique, not without purpose, it can be seen that they have really put in a lot of effort." In particular, this proposal to extend the demographic dividend by ten years is worth studying. ”

"Uncle Chen, what do you mean?" Qiao Wei hurriedly sat up straight and asked impatiently.

"Although such a forward-looking study has not been tested by data, it is equivalent to mass production of a new drug without clinical trials, which is very risky. But that doesn't mean this way of reasoning is useless, because it at least tells us that there is still much that can be improved. ”

The old-timer took a sip of his teacup and continued: "In fact, I have thought about the future of China's economy and the possibility of its collapse, and many of the ideas in this paper can be said to coincide with my fears. The reason is that it's hard to say exactly what's going on in China, and the data is scarce and unreliable. And the economy is so unique. Throughout history, have you ever seen such a huge economy rise so rapidly within the global economy?

Perhaps many economists will give various reasons for how unique our system is, so many of the laws of economics do not apply to it. But at the end of the day, economic problems can never escape the laws of mathematics. And the numerical question is not about how big the country's economy is, how fast it is developing, and how strong the state's position is. For us now, it's the numbers that have gone wrong. ”

The old-timer's words surprised Qiao Weiwei, and he couldn't believe that even an old-timer like him had such terrible worries.

Before he could speak, the old-timer put down his teacup and continued: "Anyone who has studied the economy a little understands that we have adopted the traditional Asian model of development. In fact, this model, which originated from the foundation, has been adopted to varying degrees by many fast-growing countries in East Asia.

Generally speaking, it is to accelerate capital accumulation through low wages, and then promote industrialization and high exports with high investment, so as to achieve rapid economic growth. The state controls the entire economic process, and the industrial policy and the political axe inject capital at the same time to accelerate the development of high-tech industries.

This model will indeed gain tremendous growth in a short period of time, but it will eventually collapse one day. It is said that the economy completely collapsed in the early 90s, and it has not recovered for more than ten years; South Korea, the most faithful replicator of the model, also suffered an economic crisis in '97-'98.

Although the crises in both countries eventually came to light in different ways: the bursting of the asset bubble and the external shock to South Korea, the causes of the collapse of the economies in both countries were the same: weak banks, heavily indebted companies, and ill-advised investments.

We are also indulging in this model of development, and we are more than capable of it. The overall investment as a percentage of GDP is close to 50 percent, which is too high even by Asian standards. Who would dare to pat their chests and say that our economy will never go wrong? ”

If the economic base determines the superstructure, if this view is true, then the problems that Professor Tian Da and his like-minded friends reasoned about will undoubtedly arise as well. At the same time, Qiao Wei also realized that since the old-timers had such a sense of distress, the head of the Central Committee would not be ignorant of this.

As he expected, the old-timer took out a pen, signed his name on the title page of the paper very seriously, and said solemnly: "The demographic dividend is the top priority of economic development, and with the rapid development of the economy, the labor cost will inevitably become higher and higher." Blindly reducing labor costs will further widen the gap between the rich and the poor, leading to polarization, which is a dilemma in development.

The proposals put forward by them on streamlining the contingent of cadres, reducing unnecessary expenditures, increasing investment in the people's livelihood, and improving social security can indeed fundamentally alleviate the social contradictions when economic growth reaches a critical point. ”

The old-timer's words were not so much an evaluation of this book of ten thousand words, but rather a request for him to be in charge of the party, how could Qiao Wei not hear the implication, and nodded hurriedly: "Yes, Uncle Chen." ”

The old-timer nodded with satisfaction, and while handing him the signed 10,000-word book, he said meaningfully: "Now there are not many people who can calm down and do learning, and those who worry about the country and the people are even rarer. ”

The like-minded friends of Professor Tian University are experts and scholars who have a certain influence in their respective fields, but they are not very ambitious. If they were all as beautiful as Master Wu and Master Mao, they would have already become guests of honor among dignitaries, how could they become his Qiao Wei's staff?

Obviously, Qiao Wei, who was eager for talent, naturally would not miss this opportunity, so he nodded again and again without thinking about it: "Uncle Chen, don't worry, I will definitely be a corporal and learn from everyone." ”

Just when Qiao Wei rushed to Zhongnanhai to see the No. 3 leader, the desperate Professor Tian Da was in a hurry at home. In order to get an official position, he racked his brains. Not only did he change his previous style of scolding speeches during the last month and a half of rotation training, but he even gradually transitioned to talking about the scientific outlook on development, which made the leaders of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection very dissatisfied, thinking that he was not doing his job properly.

What does it mean to not do your job? Since they brought me here, but they didn't let me arrest corrupt officials, they beat side drums and sang high-pitched songs all day long, which is called a bad job. In this regard, Professor Tian Da is very disdainful, for him to achieve success, not to achieve the disarmament and return to the field, and to engage in charity with Professor He Bingsu and other old-timers.

But in the face of Xiao Jingwen, who was more than two months old, Tian Wenjian felt so sorry. After all, whether he succeeds or not, he has to leave this familiar home, and he can't get along with his baby daughter day and night like he is now.

What made Professor Tian University even more anxious was that Xiao Chili Yu Xiaomei not only really went through the demobilization procedures, but also chased him to the capital. I don't know whose back door I went, but I turned into a Yan college student, and I always ran to his house for three days.

"Wenwen, Auntie won't go anywhere this weekend, so I'll stay at home with you, okay? But you have to be sensible, you can't be like last time, Aunt Pee. ”

Little Pepper seemed to be nothing, and as soon as she came, she carried Xiao Jingwen around the living room, so that her grandmother didn't even have a chance to touch it. Looking at her elated look, Xiao Na couldn't help but smile: "Since you like children so much, let's get married and have one as soon as possible." It's not that my sister said that you're such an adult, and you still look like a child. ”

"Sister, I am a college student now, and I have to focus on my studies. Besides, I don't even have a boyfriend, who do you want me to give birth to? ”

"You can pick it, and if you pick it again, you will soon be an old girl, who can still want you when you see it."

I can't clean it at home, Professor Tian Da's book can't stand it, so I simply walked out of the study, stretched out my hand to take the child, and said with a smile: "Wife, people are tiger girls, out of the sludge and not stained, and abide by the three obedience and four virtues, there are more boys chasing her, do you need to this heart?" ”

Xiao Na was happy, and said with a smile: "What kind of mess, still three from four virtues?" ”

"Brother-in-law, you know how to bully people."

Xiao Pepper was anxious, pushed his arm away, and said with a smile: "What is called sludge without staining, what is called three from four virtues, if you don't tell me a name, don't think about holding Wenwen today." ”

After all, laughing and laughing, the hand does not dare to move blindly. It's not that I'm worried that my wife will be jealous, but I'm afraid of hurting my children. Professor Tian had to sit down, peeling apples, and said with a wicked smile: "You girls, you go out neatly dressed and beautiful." But when you go to your girls' dormitory, you will know what it means to get out of the mud without staining. ”

Cortana was stunned for a moment, then reacted, and immediately leaned back with laughter. How messy the girls' dormitory is, Xiao Chili, who has developed a neat habit in the army, was deeply touched, and immediately pointed to his nose and said with a smile: "Sister, brother-in-law is very dishonest!" You still know about the girls' dormitory, and you don't take care of it. ”

"It's natural for a teacher to control students, how do you let me manage it?" Xiao Na didn't fall for her, but turned around and asked curiously, "Husband, what about the three from the four virtues?" ”

"Never gentle, never considerate, never reasonable, can't speak, can't beat, can't scold, can't provoke, isn't this three from the four virtues?"

"Tian Wenjian, do you say that?" Pepper was laughed at, pouting and muttering.

"Just kidding, by the way, are you still keeping up with the course? How many courses do you have to retake? ”

When it came to studying, Xiao Pepper suddenly wilted, with a depressed expression, and said with a wry smile: "English and high mathematics must be retaken, and the others are so-so." ”

Professor Tian Da's eyes widened, he stood up suddenly, and while taking the child, he pretended to be serious and said, "Then you are still playing, the child is for me, and I will go to the study to study." ”

The little guy seemed to know that his father was going to hug her, so he actually raised his chubby, white and tender little hands, pouted, stared at a pair of very vigorous watery eyes, looked around with bones, and made a sound of humm.

"Girl, do you miss your father? Come...... Let me smell it, ...... These little hands are so fragrant. Tian Wenjian was happy, lowered his head and kissed him fiercely. Seeing him happy like that, Cortana smiled knowingly.

At this time, Little Pepper suddenly came to her side, with a pitiful expression, and said cautiously: "Sister, I beg you something." I really can't pass this English and high math test, can you help me go when the time comes......"

"What are you kidding?"

Without waiting for him to finish speaking, Professor Tian Da turned his head sharply and said angrily: "Yu Xiaomei, Yu Xiaomei, I didn't expect even you to engage in these crooked ways, who is your sister?" She is also a university teacher, can she do this kind of thing for others? ”

Xiao Pepper didn't eat his set, immediately raised his head, and said-for-tat: "I don't go abroad, why do I have to learn a foreign language?" Besides, foreign languages and advanced mathematics are not related to my major, so even if I learn them, what is the use? ”

Even cheating is so eloquent that it makes Professor Tian University ridiculous, but it is not unreasonable to think about it. After all, there are indeed problems with higher education in China, there are too many compulsory courses and too few elective courses. If this was the case during the Republic of China, then Qian Zhongshu and Zhu Ziqing and others would not even be able to enter the university door, let alone become professors.

Despite this, Professor Tian Da still said very seriously: "Xiaomei, it's not that my brother-in-law won't let your sister help, but that you can't help with this." After all, you choose your own path, and since you have chosen this path, you have to stick to it. ”

"yes, it's not that hard." Xiao Na patted her arm and said with a smile: "From today onwards, I will make it up for you, as long as you are willing to work hard, my sister guarantees that you can pass the test." ”

"Really?" Pepper's confidence is not very high, and she has a skeptical expression.

Xiao Na nodded heavily, and said with emotion: "Really, when my sister and your brother-in-law first arrived in the United States, the conditions were not as good as you are now, and I was reluctant to go to cram school, so I relied on self-study, and I didn't come here the same." ”

"Alright then, I'll give it a try."

A good officer doesn't do it, but he actually studies someone to go to college, isn't it nothing to look for? Besides, even if you go to college, you can go to a military school, and with the general's father covering, getting a graduation certificate is not a matter of words?

Professor Tian Da sighed secretly and couldn't help but quip: "Now is a market economy, but there is no free lunch." For the sake of our colleagues, you won't be charged for food. However, the cost of this teaching cannot be less. Your sister is also a master's degree, and she is also a mother, so she must not be allowed to work in vain. ”

"Money, money, money, I think you are in the eye of money. If you don't have money, you have to die. ”

Professor Tian Da was about to say something, when the mobile phone rang suddenly, and when he looked at the caller ID, it turned out to be Qiao Wei's number, and hurriedly handed Xiao Jingwen to his wife, ran into the study and pressed the call button.

"Brother Qiao, what does it say?" Success or failure in this move, Professor Tian University is a little impatient.

Qiao Wei on the other end of the phone didn't say anything serious, but said lightly: "I haven't seen you for so long, the old lady misses you a little." Today is Sunday, bring the children over and sit. ”

Such a big thing, it was really inconvenient to say on the phone, Tian Wenjian nodded heavily, and hurriedly said, "Okay, we'll be there soon." ”

In the eyes of the old-timers, if you don't want to be a soldier and go to the capital to go to college, you are not doing your job. There is no doubt that Little Pepper did not dare to follow, so she had to go into Professor Tianda's study and honestly review her homework.

It was already four o'clock in the afternoon when I arrived at Xishan, and as soon as I walked into Qiao's small courtyard, Qiao Wei's lover and secretary greeted him, and took a family of three to see the old lady, and Professor Tian Da walked into the study under the leadership of Secretary Wang.

"A good news or a bad news, which one do you want to hear first?" Without waiting for Professor Tian to speak, Qiao Wei asked with a smile while motioning for him to sit down.

It's better to have news than no news, after all, there are too many things like this that end up in the sea for the leader, not to mention the good news. Tian Wenjian pondered for a moment, and smiled casually: "Let's listen to the good news first." ”

Qiao Wei lit a cigarette, spit out light blue circles under his eyes, and said with a smile on his face: "Although it is a bit untenable to use logic to prove logic, the starting point is good after all." However, your ideas are too advanced and very difficult to execute, and this needs to be solved little by little. The chief has a very high opinion of you, and has decided to wait until the conditions are ripe to conduct a pilot project to see if you can find a way. ”

After talking for a long time was equivalent to saying nothing, Professor Tian Da was anxious and couldn't help asking: "Then when will the conditions be ripe?" ”

"Look at you, it seems that don't listen to bad news."

Professor Tian Da sighed lightly, shook his head and smiled bitterly: "It's bad enough, how bad can it be?" Let's talk about it, I'm mentally prepared for this. ”

Qiao Wei knocked the cigarette ash and said expressionlessly: "If all the conditions are there, then this pilot will be meaningless." The chief's meaning is very simple, that is, you can give it a try, but not in the East China Sea, but in the waterfront. In addition, you can only try it on a small scale, and at the same time, you can't cause any trouble. ”

Linhai is a large industrial province, but it is also a province with extremely uneven economic development. In a sense, it has a certain representative surname. In addition, the No. 3 leader also has a meaning, that is, he does not want Professor Tian Da to receive any policy support. Only in this way can we test the viability of their development path.

Professor Tian was overjoyed, couldn't help but stand up, stared at the map of China on the wall, and asked eagerly: "Brother Qiao, don't sell Guanzi, which county is it?" ”

Qiao Wei was happy, and immediately laughed and said, "What is there to try in a county?" If you want to try, try a city. Deputy Secretary of the Huazhou Municipal Party Committee, get ready to take office. ”

"Deputy? Still a deputy secretary! Professor Tian Da was completely dumbfounded, with an expression of extreme disappointment.

"33-year-old deputy secretary of the municipal party committee, yes, what do you want?"

Speaking of this, Qiao Wei changed his words, pointed to the blue dot on the map, and said with a wicked smile: "I almost forgot, and I am also the secretary of the municipal party committee of Linshui, a county-level city." Melon, it will take at least five years to go, you have to think about it. ”

"Don't say five years, I'm willing to do it for ten years!" Professor Tian Da was happy, stared at Linshui City on the map, and looked at it for five or six minutes.

(To be continued)