After the end of the Second World War, as at the end of the First World War, the global economy experienced another increase, and this time for a longer period of time. The development of the global economy after World War II can be divided into two parts: the Western camp and the socialist camp.

In the Western camp, the rapid economic development after World War II was characterized by the rapid development of multinational corporations. With advanced technology, these multinational corporations have set up factories all over the world, using cheap land, labor and resources from all over the world, to produce large quantities of cheap goods, so that even the working class in developed countries can benefit from them. However, this international economic structure is still unsustainable, as Marx's theory suggests, capitalist production must eventually lead to a crisis caused by insufficient aggregate demand. Transnational corporations have created a global model of production, but they have not created a rational pattern of global consumption. Although transnational corporations have made huge profits by using their advanced technology, which has enabled the economies of the developed countries to show a good upward momentum, such economies are based on the cheap provision of land, labour and raw materials by the underdeveloped countries, and this unfavourable terms of trade have led to insufficient incomes for the developing countries and thus a heavy burden of external debt, which has forced the developing countries to reduce their consumption in order to pay their external debts, which has directly led to a decrease in the demand for the products of the developed countries. The decline in demand also means that the labor force that provides labor for these needs in developed countries is unemployed. According to the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation, the unemployment rate in its five member countries was 348 in 1973, rose to 83 per cent in 1979, and rose to 11 in 1995. The country's agriculture is also very illustrative as a typical case. During the 70s of the 20 th century, the national government encouraged the peasants to produce for overseas markets, adopted a series of policies to encourage the export of agricultural products, and achieved positive results, and the export volume of the country's agriculture soared from 8 billion yuan in 1971 to 100 million yuan in 1979. However, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan halted exports to the Soviet Union, and the financial constraints of third world countries led to a 21% drop in the price of agricultural products and a 20% drop in exports from 1981 to 1983.

At the same time as the rapid economic growth of the West, the economy of the socialist camp also developed rapidly, and the planned economic system of the Soviet Union made it possible to quickly allocate resources to the Ministry of rapid development of the national economy. The rapid economic development of the Soviet Union led Khrushchev to boast in 1961 that the Soviet Union's industrial output would surpass that of the country in 1980. However, the planned economy of the Soviet Union was still not able to escape the effects of economic recession, and by the 60s, its economic development had shown signs of slowing down, and after the 70s, the Soviet economy had actually stagnated. The reasons for the economic stagnation of the Soviet Union can include: (1) the resources of the Soviet Union cannot be compared with those controlled by Western societies, and it can no longer continue to invest large amounts of cheap resources to achieve economic growth; (2) the planned economic system of the Soviet Union was no longer able to adapt to the changing needs of society and effectively manage the increasingly complex economic content; (3) Scientists, engineers, and workers are disgusted by the complete lack of free mode of production.

The slowdown in economic development had the same effect on Western societies as on socialist societies, and popular discontent began to emerge. In the West, protectionism demanding high tariffs has reared the head; In the socialist camp, workers protested against the rigid planned economic system by passive sabotage. However, due to the lessons of history, protectionist policies were not immediately adopted in the West; In the socialist camp, the situation is much worse, the West is only suffering from stagflation, but the economy of the socialist camp has completely stagnated, and the people's consumption demand has been suppressed for a long time, so that the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries have been unable to save the stagnant economies before the West has adopted protectionist measures.

In Brussels, Belgium, European central banks gathered here for the ECB meeting to discuss the issue of selling gold to the market, and after a "hot" discussion, the countries adopted the resolution.

At the same time, in a hotel in Brussels, Lin Yu was sitting quietly on the sofa watching TV, and the new Belgian Prime Minister Rolf walked in quickly after a close inspection, and said to Lin Yu, "Boss, the General Assembly has passed a resolution to sell gold to the market. ”

Rudolph was a talent introduced by Sandywell when Lin Yu was in Europe, and Sandywell spoke highly of him, and Lin Yu also felt very comfortable after using it, so he put him in Europe to deal with some things.

"Well, I see," Lin Yu hummed lightly and replied lightly without looking back.

Rudolph moved slightly, frowning, as if he was thinking about something, and after a moment, he asked, "Rudolph has a question, I don't know if the boss can answer it for me." ”

"Is it about selling gold to the market?" Lin Yu turned his head, looked at him, and asked calmly.

"Well, yes," Rudolph replied, "the heads of the major central banks feel that this is not appropriate for the future development of the euro, and of course everyone thinks that you must have some intention in doing so, so, despite this, the General Assembly adopted the resolution." ”

"Well," Lin Yu smiled faintly, and then said, "You don't have to worry about the loss of gold, I know what to do, as for the so-called intention you want to know, it is actually very simple, one is the Soviet Union, the second is the country, and the third is Europe." ”

Rudolph looked at him inexplicably, it was obvious that he didn't mean to pay attention to Lin Yu, and it was no wonder that although he was the prime minister, it didn't mean that he could fully comprehend everything.

Lin Yu said with a smile: "One for the Soviet Union refers to the deterioration of the current economic situation in the Soviet Union, and foreign exchange earnings largely support the current Soviet economy, and the Soviet economy mainly relies on oil and gold exports, as long as the prices of the two plummet, then the economic situation of the Soviet Union will further deteriorate, which is extremely beneficial to our next whether it is the transfer of gold from the Soviet Union or the actions carried out in the Soviet Union." ”

"The second is that the country now has the world's largest gold reserves, and the annual production of gold is too low, under normal circumstances, for the sake of economic stability, at the same time, countries have had an agreement as early as after the Bretton Woods system, and agreed that the country will be the last country to throw gold, which determines that it is impossible for the country to inject gold into the market on a large scale Now the British Union wants to suppress gold, but it is afraid of Europe, as long as Europe also sells, then the country will definitely throw out part of the gold reserves in order to completely crack down, Then wait for the gold to reach the lowest price before eating, so that it can not only suppress the status of gold in people's minds but also make a lot of money, so what we have to do is to use this opportunity to snatch the national gold. ”

"As for the three for Europe, it should not be difficult to reason, the issuance of the European euro, which takes a short period of time to run-in, and during this time what we need to do is to maintain the stability of the euro, under normal circumstances, it is difficult for the euro to ensure absolute stability and use gold as a shield, but it can well resist financial risks and maintain the stability of the euro, so we need a lot of gold as a backing, so as to not only establish the confidence of EU countries, but also prepare for a smooth transition in Europe."

Hearing Lin Yu's story, Rudolph suddenly realized that he originally thought that this was a struggle in the gold market, but he didn't expect that it would be a big war involving all aspects and it seemed to be his own side.

Having got the answers he wanted, Rudolph quickly quit, and he needed to tell the same suspicious people about these things to reassure them.

Soon, the major European central banks announced that they were selling a large amount of gold to the market, which again caused a further plunge in gold prices in a very short period of time, and the price of gold fell below 500 yuan per ounce, down 80 yuan per ounce from the previous trading day.

Just after the major European central banks sold gold, as the world's largest gold reserves, once again ignited the wave of gold plunge, the Federal Reserve sold nearly 300 tons of gold to the market at a time, and the market gold price plummeted again by 97 yuan per ounce to 398 yuan per ounce.

The price of gold first experienced a sharp decline, reaching the highest level in recent years, and then suddenly plummeted to more than 300 yuan per ounce, and these all happened in a month, gold prices experienced the most turbulent January in history, and people's mood also rose and fell with the rise and fall of gold prices, which has never been seen in the history of gold trading.

The ups and downs of the world's gold, from the high all the way down to the low, I thought that the price of gold would stabilize at more than 300 yuan per ounce, many institutions have sharpened their knives and were ready to withdraw gold, suddenly, as if to withdraw investors, the Federal Reserve once again set off a wave, and once again sold 560 tons of gold to the market, again let the price of gold fall below 300 yuan per ounce.

Subsequently, a well-known analyst on Wall Street believes that due to factors such as the collapse of oil prices, the sharp increase in gold production, and the stabilization of the current world economy, gold prices may remain low in the next ten years.

Gold reserves refer to the gold held by a country's monetary authority as a financial asset to balance the balance of payments and maintain or influence the exchange rate. It plays a special role in stabilizing the national economy, curbing inflation, and improving international credit. The management of gold reserves is about maximizing the possible flow and income of gold reserves. As one of the main forms of international reserves, gold reserves have their own limitations in terms of liquidity, so the issue of their appropriate size should be considered.

The significance of correctly managing the concept of gold reserves is as follows: first, it is conducive to determining the reasonable scale of gold reserves; Second, it can avoid being confused with the gold assets of commercial banks in their daily operations, which is conducive to the normal operation of banking business; Third, it is conducive to the central banks of countries that implement gold control to correctly formulate gold management policies and promote the healthy development of their own gold industry and related industries.

Gold reserves, as a part of international reserves, are only one aspect of a country's wealth, and high gold reserves increase the ability to withstand the shocks of international investment funds, help to make up for the balance of payments deficit, and help maintain a country's economic stability, but too high gold reserves will lead to an increase in the cost of holding by central banks, because the yield on gold reserves is basically zero in the long run, and the importance of gold reserves has been greatly reduced since the gold standard.

The development of the international economic situation determines the medium and long-term trend of gold prices, and the changes in the international economic situation contain complex content, such as economic growth, economic crisis, energy prices, economic indicators, economic policies, etc., all affect the changes in gold prices to varying degrees. When analyzing the impact of the international economic situation on gold prices, we need to focus on the following two clues.

The world economic situation is mainly expressed through the economic development status of important economies, mainly referring to the economic development trend of the country, the euro area and Japan, and whether the economic situation of these countries or regions is unstable. In addition, the economic situation of China and other developing countries has an increasing impact on the development of the world economic situation.

The judgment on the development trend and stability of the world's important economies can be made with the help of the predictions of some important economic indicators by the relevant countries' political and research institutions and international organizations. These important economic indicators mainly include: the economic growth rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, etc., of the world economy as a whole and important countries. However, the relationship between these indicators and gold prices is established under strictly specific conditions, and the same indicator has different effects on gold prices under different international geopolitical situations, international economic situations, and international financial situations, so these indicators cannot be used to simply predict the trend of gold prices. For example, in the recent period, the inflation indicators in the euro area and countries have increased month by month, while the gold price has not risen significantly.

Compared with economic indicators, the impact of economic resources on gold prices is more obvious. The growth of modern social economy depends on the sufficiency of the supply of economic resources, and with the development of the world economy, it is impossible for the demand for economic resources to drop sharply unless the world economic and financial crisis occurs.

Once there is a problem with the supply of resources in important economic resource-rich areas (such as the Middle East), the transmission will affect the global supply of resources, resulting in price fluctuations of important resource commodities, and the world economy may face inflation risks, which supports high gold prices.

Among the world's important economic resources that have the greatest impact on gold prices, oil prices undoubtedly play the greatest role in gold prices. Changes in oil prices directly determine the production costs of countries around the world and determine the inflation situation; And if the supply of oil is not guaranteed and the demand for oil is not met, the economy may be at risk of stagnation or recession. Therefore, analyzing oil price trends can provide directional indications for predicting gold prices.