Chapter 174 Financial Models
(Thank you to the loser Song Yutu brothers, the reward of jerking off all over the world, thank you for subscribing.) )
However, sitting on the balcony and looking at Hong Kong in the distance for a while, Chen Mo slowly formed a plan in his heart. All along, his investment in finance has only relied on a little foresight, and he is actually just a layman in this regard.
If you want to develop in this industry, you need to sort out a set of your own things scientifically and systematically. Whether it is a theory or a personalized standard, only in this way can it be said to be an investment rather than a speculation.
Chen Mo thinks that he is not a talent in this area, he is not a real financial department, nor is he from a mathematics department, relying on himself to establish a unique investment system, that is just a joke.
However, if you have your own guidance, according to your own understanding, let Liu Dong build a financial model, it should not be a big problem. With a set of such models, your investment does not need to be hidden, and you can operate it openly.
When Liu Dong came back with one by one, Chen Mo mentioned his plan to him. Liu Dong looked at him stunned for a long time before shaking his head and said: "You see this matter too easily, if you want to build a set of models that can be used, don't say that I am alone, you just need to find a hundred people, and it will take countless efforts." Mathematicians, economists, computer experts, don't even think about the millions less in the project fee just for asking people. ”
"You misunderstand me, I know that on Wall Street, a working financial model even needs tens of millions, hundreds of millions of dollars, and it will take at least two years to verify that it will work. Many times, with countless amounts of money and time spent, the financial model built may not be practical. ”
"Now that you know, why do you still have this plan? Modeling is generally only done by investment firms, and it's a company's biggest secret. You personally invest in this. There's really no need. ”
"I know that the biggest difficulty in modeling is historical financial data collection and input, and I still have a bit of a way to do that, and I don't want to invest in building a normal financial model. Generally, funds and companies adopt qualitative investment, which is based on fundamental analysis and research, and should also investigate listed companies, pay attention to communication with management, and keep abreast of various research reports. In other words, it is the fund manager who relies on subjective judgment and intuition to select individual stocks after synthesizing all the information. Build a portfolio. ”
Liu Dong became a little interested and asked, "Then what combination are you going to take?" Quantitative portfolios? In this case, the investment is even greater! ”
Chen Mo shook his head and said, "That kind of investment is too big, I can't afford it now." I just wanted to use a set of models to prove the theory of personal analysis correct. ”
The so-called quantitative investment model is the use of computers to help the human brain process a large amount of information. After collecting and analyzing a large amount of data, quantitative investors look for investment opportunities in the whole market in 360 degrees, use computers to screen investment opportunities, and reflect investment ideas or concepts in the model through the design of specific indicators and parameters, and accordingly track and analyze the market without any subjective emotions. With the help of the computer's powerful data processing power, the investment is selected to ensure that the return is maximized under the premise of controlling the risk.
In this way, just a set of large-scale computer hosts is something that Chen Mo can't afford.
Liu Dong smiled and said, "If that's the case." It's simple, I only need to find a few people, set up a team, and it can be built in half a year. But how can you ensure the practicality of this model? If the financial model is not practical. That's worthless. ”
Chen Mo's brain was also a little messed up, and he said, "I still need to think about this matter again, but I want to." If there is some data in the future, can this model be built successfully? ”
Liu Dong sighed: "If anyone can know the future, let alone a set of models, he can become the richest man in the world in minutes." Do you know James Simmons? ”
Chen Mo shook his head, he smiled and said, "Let's go, let's go eat." I'll tell you a little bit about this person and the role of mathematics in financial investment. ”
The dinner was much more formal than the lunch meal, and Liu Dong not only called four or five of his colleagues, but also brought two of his graduate students to accompany them, plus some of them brought their families, and sat at a full table.
Maybe Liu Dong's relatives rarely appeared, so Chen Mo attracted everyone's attention. Liu Dong didn't drink, and the result was that Chen Mo faced everyone alone.
Fortunately, most of these people are southerners, and they don't drink too well. Coupled with the low degree of liquor in the south, Chen Mo barely survived, and he was dizzy with a group of professors, and he himself was confused.
Originally, I wanted to talk to Liu Dong again at night, but after I came back, I took a shower and fell asleep.
When he woke up early the next morning, Chen Mo woke up and was about to wash, but he saw that Yiyi was not sleeping comfortably in the quilt at all, rubbing his body from time to time. His heart tightened, and he quickly lifted the quilt, only to see that Yiyi had a lot of rashes on her body, and she kept scratching them unconsciously.
He hurriedly woke up Liu Dong, and the two of them didn't care about washing, so they ran to the hospital with one by one.
After some careful examination, the doctor did not find out what the cause was, but said that it was not adaptable. Chen Mo has been eating them one by one according to a strict diet, and she has not been allowed to eat any allergens, and she doesn't know what the reason is for a while.
At this time, it was midnight in Europe, and he called directly to Switzerland, and the doctor on duty only spoke German, not English, and could not communicate. Finally, I found a German international student from Pengcheng University, so that we could communicate.
Yiyi's allergy this time was not serious, but there were some rashes on his body, and his body was not uncomfortable, and there was no shortness of breath. After confirming that Chen Mo did not eat any allergic food one by one, the doctor on the other side said: "Check the bath water, even if it is the quality of drinking water, it is different, I have heard that the water quality in the south of your country is harder than that in the north, maybe this is the reason." ”
The phone hung up, and Chen Mo couldn't react for a long time. Is tap water any different? After taking anti-allergy medicine one by one, Chen Mo and Liu Dong went directly to the water company to ask, and this question was really different.
The water quality in the south is soft but has many microorganisms, while the water in the north is hard and mineral. Ordinary people's physique has the problem of not adapting to water and soil, let alone a person with a weak physique.
After finding out the problem, Chen Mo wanted to return to the capital, but seeing Liu Dong's reluctant attitude, he really couldn't say anything. "One by one, is it still itchy on your body?"
"If you don't want to, you won't itch."
Liu Dong drove the car and was silent for a long time, returned downstairs, and discussed: "Xiao Mo, if you don't take a look in the afternoon, if the rash is gone, it means that the problem is not big." In the afternoon, I asked people to bring a few buckets of pure water, and then I took a bath one by one, and also used pure water. ”
"Okay, we'll see in the afternoon."
When the rash on one body went down in the afternoon, both men breathed a sigh of relief. Liu Dong directly called the water delivery company and asked them to send ten buckets of pure water at once, obviously wanting to stay for a longer period of time.
Chen Mo also wanted to talk to him about the financial model, so he didn't say that he wanted to leave.
Liu Dong's mind is very detailed, not only did he dig out his mind to please Yiyi, but after knowing Chen Mo's thoughts, he also took out something that made Chen Mo's heart move.
As a husband, Liu Dong may be unqualified, but as a mathematics professor, Liu Dong is competent. In his study, there are many cases and analyses on financial models, and even several sets of financial model templates from the past.
Although he did not lead the work of financial modeling, he did. However, he is generally involved in the establishment of managerial financial models, rather than investment complex financial models.
The financial model is not actually a very profound thing, for example, the general office software is actually a kind of financial model. It's just that this kind of office software has very few functions, and it can only count attendance, pay salaries, and manage daily work. A model with only such features can be run on a single computer.
But if it is a set of investment management model, it is much more complicated, if you want to use all the functions, I am afraid that you need a computer group the size of a football field to play all the functions.
Chen Mo has not studied much in this area, but he also knows that a financial model management system can even have nearly 200 functions, even if it is a large company on Wall Street, they generally do not pursue such comprehensive functions, but only optimize the content they need. Even if this is the case, the amount of money and manpower required in this is innumerable.
During the time I stayed in Pengcheng, I took them around one by one to play and shop around during the day. In his free time, Chen Mo followed Liu Dong to learn this knowledge. He doesn't need to know everything, but he can only know what kind of financial model he needs when he is familiar with this aspect.
stayed in Pengcheng for nearly half a month, and Chen Mo also studied for half a month. Although he didn't learn deeply, he also figured out the difference and knew what kind of model he needed.
Although his requirements are not as high as those of Wall Street's investment firms, if he wants to build such a model, he will need tens of millions of dollars. What's more, he has nothing in his hands, and if he wants to build this model, he has to start from scratch, and he can't build it at all without two or three years.
So Chen Mo didn't want to start from scratch, he was ready to pull in the departments he worked for and CNPC, and use their existing databases and materials, as well as existing models, to optimize a set of his own things.
In this way, you will not only save money, but also time. (To be continued.) )