Fan Hongyu didn't sit down, stood next to the street model, and looked at it with interest. Because of the environment and traditional education, for a long time, almost every boy in our country had a "heroic dream". The game that the little boys played the most was also about fighting.

The same goes for Fan Hongyu.

Bao Xing explained: "The main combat task of our guard unit is to defend the city, and street fighting is the most important training subject. ”

So he's going to put a huge model of the street in his living room and study it from time to time.

"It's exquisite."

Fan Hongyu smiled and nodded, and did not discuss this issue, so as not to embarrass Baoxing.

These are all military secrets.

Fan Hongyu immediately turned around, faced the huge military map of the bay hanging on the wall, and said, "Brother Bao, it seems that you have put in a lot of effort during this time." ”

Bao Xing didn't deny it, and nodded with a smile: "Yes, it's not easy to make this picture alone." I still got it at the Academy of Military Sciences, and I have a classmate from the military academy who works there. ”

"So, what are the results of your analysis?"

Bao Xing picked up the long whip on the side of the sand table, pointed to the map on the wall, and said: "You are right, the Gulf region is a powder keg now, and Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is the detonator." Whether this powder keg explodes or not, when it explodes, it all depends on whether the detonator can explode or not......"

Fan Hongyu couldn't help laughing.

The description of Baoxing's "detonator" is very appropriate.

Bao Xing continued: "Saddam Hussein is a typical dictator, arrogant, to the extreme. Since he came to power, Iraq has been at war non-stop. After eight years of fighting with Iran, I didn't take advantage of anything. From time to time, they provoke Israel. Want to be a hero in the Arab world. So I think you're right, Saddam Hussein won't just fall silent, and there will definitely be a big stir. ”

"Then what do you think Saddam Hussein will make a big fuss?"

Fan Hongyu said, not so much asking, but guiding.

Because he already knew what was going on, and he knew exactly what happened to Saddam. In the eyes of Fan Hongyu at this moment, the dictator who is still showing off his might in that Gulf country. It's just a ghost that's been dead for years.

"Foreign wars, wars of aggression!"

Bao Xing said without hesitation.

"Why?"

"Although Saddam Hussein has extreme domination at home, in fact his dominance is not very secure. Historically, Iraq was a religious country. However, the current regime in Iraq is not theocratic and cohesive. Saddam Hussein relied mainly on coercive policies to maintain his rule. The population of Sunni Muslims in the leading position in the country is relatively small, and the population of Shia Muslims is larger than that of Sunnis, but there is no leadership position, and religious conflicts and contradictions are deep. Saddam Hussein did not have a religious appeal, and it was unstable to rely solely on high-handed policies to maintain his rule. Only by constantly waging wars against foreign countries can he maintain the power in his hands well. In the name of national security, clean up those oppositionists and at the same time create his heroic image. Therefore, this battle must be fought. It depends on who you fight and when. ”

Fan Hongyu gave a thumbs up.

These things, for him, are a bit like common sense. But Baoxing's ability to analyze it so clearly is by no means simple. After all, it's still the early nineties. There is no shadow of the public computer network, and the information channel is extremely closed. Ordinary people, who don't even know a lot about the situation in their own country, will pay attention to what kind of state Iraq is thousands of miles away?

Baoxing's efforts are not profound.

At this time, Tong Yu had already brought the tea out, and when he saw that the two of them were standing, he put the tea on the sand table and said with a smile: "What about the two brothers studying this?" During this time, Baoxing thought about the magic and tinkered with those things in the bay all day long. How did you think to study these things? ”

"Hongyu told me that there may be a big war in the Gulf region, let me pay attention to it, and I will study it carefully, and it is really like that."

"Fighting a big battle? They've been fighting all the time. The Iran-Iraq war has been fought for eight years, and it only took two years for it to stop a little, will there be another war? ”

Bao Xing shook his head and said, "No." If it continues to fight Iran, Iraq will not take advantage of it. After eight years of fighting without a winner or loser, Saddam Hussein would be too stupid if he did not understand this truth. ”

"If you don't fight Iran, who will you fight?"

"Here! Kuwait! I believe that Iraq's next target is Kuwait! ”

The long whip was pointed directly at Kuwait next to Iraq, and Bao Xing said very firmly.

Fan Hongyu's eyes suddenly lit up.

Last time, he mentioned to Baoxing and asked him to pay attention to the situation in the Gulf, but he did not tell Baoxing that Iraq was going to invade Kuwait. This result is completely deduced by Baoxing himself.

Accurate!

It seems that in the military, Baoxing really has a keen comprehension far beyond ordinary people.

"How could Iraq attack Kuwait again?"

Tong Yu also seemed to be interested and asked.

Of course, such a topic cannot be discussed casually in public, after all, they are two sovereign states, and they are still at peace. If it's a discussion among ordinary people, it doesn't matter, no one cares. The key is that Bao Xing's identity is different, whether he is an active military officer or a descendant of the Bao family, you must pay attention to the influence.

But it's okay to talk casually at home.

"They have territorial disputes, and Saddam Hussein has always claimed that Kuwait is part of Iraq. Despite its small size, Kuwait has abundant oil reserves. If Kuwait were to be annexed, the benefits would be great. In particular, not long ago, Iraq called on the Gulf countries to reduce crude oil production and raise crude oil prices, but Kuwait followed him, but instead increased crude oil production and lowered prices. The Iraqi government and people have the most opinion on Kuwait, and Saddam Hussein's use of force against Kuwait at this time can best win the support of the domestic masses. Moreover, although Kuwait is rich, its military strength is very weak, and the country is small and has few soldiers. Iraq can decide the outcome of the war in one war, and it will never have to be like Iran, which will take eight years to fight. If I were Saddam, I would take Kuwait. Other countries, either can't fight, or are not sure, and it's thankless to fight. ”

Fan Hongyu couldn't help but applaud and said with a sigh: "Completely correct, I completely agree with your opinion, Brother Bao." ”

Bao Xing's face was colorful.

Tong Yuyan smiled and said, "Yes, you two continue to chat, I'll go and get some hygiene." Hey, remember, don't talk too late, you have to go home for dinner. ”

Entertaining Fan Hongyu in the barracks is obviously not sincere enough.

"The point is, when will he fight?"

Bao Xing didn't seem to hear his daughter-in-law's words, his eyebrows frowned tightly, and he said in a deep voice.

He has completely immersed himself in his analytical reasoning of the situation in the Gulf.

"Hit right away!"

Fan Hongyu said without hesitation.

"Hit right away? How so? ”

Bao Xing's eyes suddenly widened and looked directly at Fan Hongyu.

"Just like your analysis just now, Saddam Hussein will definitely launch a foreign war, and he will definitely choose Kuwait as the next target. The war with Iran has been ceasefire for two years, and if you are a military expert, you must know that two years is enough time for the troops to change people. If you don't fight now, wait another year or two, and the veterans with rich combat experience in the army will be discharged. Of course, as long as there is no mass replacement of commanders at the grassroots level, it can still maintain a certain combat effectiveness, but it is not as good as a unit composed of all veterans. And he is a veteran who has been on the battlefield and has done it with real knives and guns. So I think Saddam Hussein will do it soon. ”

Fan Hongyu said very seriously.

Although he was only relaying a fact that had already happened, it was at least to make it sound plausible to Baoxing.

Sure enough, Bao Xing nodded and said, "That's the truth." ”

"Okay, now let's assume that Iraq will take action immediately, and Kuwait will definitely not be able to resist it, and it is estimated that the whole territory will fall in a few days......"

"Yes, small countries are like this, without a little strategic depth."

"The key question is what will be the reaction of the international community after Saddam Hussein defeats Iraq."

Fan Hongyu further prompted.

"The reaction of the international community? Strong condemnation is certain, but purely military, it is not useful. Saddam Hussein was not a master who was afraid of condemnation at all. This kind of person started by violence, and the only thing he believes in can only be violence. But I don't think the U.S. will sit idly by. If Iraq really occupies Kuwait, the entire Gulf oil-producing countries will be under his threat, and the United States is the largest oil importer, so that Saddam Hussein will not be choked by the neck and bargained. Lao Mei is also a strong and domineering guy. I think they will definitely intervene and send troops. ”

Fan Hongyu breathed a sigh of relief.

Okay, the purpose of making a special trip here today has been fully accomplished.

Bao Xing is a military expert, and although he does not have the foresight and foresight of him, Ji also has a clear understanding of the entire situation in the Gulf and what may happen in the future.

"Brother Bao, without further ado, I think you should sort out these analytical reasoning immediately and publish them in internal journals as soon as possible. Time is running out, and if Saddam Hussein does it right away, we will be too late. An afterthought isn't a big deal. ”

"Okay, I'm almost ready on the ground, just the last part, after the start of the fight, the reaction of the United States and other Western military powers. Add that to that piece, and that's all about it. ”

Bao Xing gently threw the whip on the sand table and said excitedly.

"Hmm. As for how the military action will be carried out after the United States intervenes, we can also discuss it. Since it's a prediction, you might as well be bold and make a comprehensive prediction......"

Fan Hongyu nodded, also very excited.

PS: Don't tell me about the Gulf War in the real world, it's a virtual world, you know.