Can anyone predict the best films of the year? No. Can anyone predict the best director of the year? No. Can anyone predict the best actor this year? No.

Can anyone predict the best actress of the year? Again, no.

A month ago, it was widely believed that Charlize Theron would win the title of "Female." Even though she just won Best Supporting Actress at last year's Oscars, the Screen Actors Guild thinks so, but the Golden Globes don't, with Cate Blanchett and Gwyneth Paltrow going to Cate Blanchett and Gwyneth Paltrow respectively, leaving everyone scratching their heads.

In this hot list of Oscar nominees, the two Golden Globe actresses have been successfully shortlisted, which will launch the most powerful impact on the actress throne, Meryl Streep of "Family Affection is Priceless", Fairlanda Montenegro of "Grand Central Station" are also undoubtedly shortlisted, and the last seat belongs to Charlize of the "Female Devil" without suspense.

In addition to Kate and Gwyneth, "Grand Central Station" won the Golden Bear and the Silver Bear for Best Actress at the just-concluded Berlin Film Festival, and above the Oscars, it was only shortlisted for Best Foreign Language Film and Best Actress - in the foreign language film department, "Life is Beautiful" has sprung up, and the momentum is outstanding, which is bound to make the votes focus on Fairlanda; Coupled with Meryl, who has become a legend step by step, any of these four contenders should not be underestimated.

Charlize relied on the "female. The performance in the history books of "The Devil" has become the biggest favorite among actresses in the entire awards season, but no one should forget that she is only twenty-three years old this year, which is too young; No one should forget that she only won a small gold figure last year, and it is not too dense to win consecutive awards this year; And no one should forget, "female." The overall quality of "The Devil" is mediocre, only shortlisted for the Best Actress award, and the other departments are all wiped out, which is really no advantage compared to the devastating history of "Shakespeare", the historical heritage of "Elizabeth", and the reputation of "Grand Central Station".

That's the core problem of the ceremony: strength is not the only measure of winning an award, because it is not mathematics.

Therefore, Kate, Gwyneth, Charlize, Meryl, Fairlanda, the competition between these five actors may be slightly inferior to the battle for the best actor, but the suspense level has not weakened at all.

The same pattern also appeared in the Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress departments.

James Cobain of "Suffering" Coburn), Robert Duvall of "The Forbidden Truth", Ed Harris of "Truman's World", Jeffrey Rush of "Shakespeare in Love", and Billy Bob Thornton of "Windfall" were shortlisted for the supporting actor race.

Lynne Redgrave for "Gods and Beasts", Rachel Griffith for "She's Lonelier Than Fireworks". Griffiths), "The Storm" of Casey Bates, "Truman's World" Nicole Kidman, and "Shakespeare in Love" Judi Dench, will compete for the supporting actress Tinjin.

In both divisions, at least three of the candidates have the ability to win awards, and in the supporting actor division, Robert, Ed and Jeffrey are almost hand-to-hand combat; Judy, Lynn and Kathy in the supporting actress department are also bound to have an uphill battle. This makes every award full of suspense.

Coupled with the best original screenplay department where "Truman's World", "Saving Private Ryan", "Shakespeare in Love", "Life is Beautiful" and "Bragging Customers" gathered, it can be said that after the Oscar nominations came out, countless people were full of anticipation for the awards ceremony, because it was bound to be an unpredictable night.

In fact, throughout the past awards season, the major award ceremonies have made different choices during the three months of the complicated period.

The Producers Guild of America chose "Shakespeare's Love History", the Directors Guild of America chose "Saving Private Ryan", the Writers Guild of America chose "Truman's World", and the Screen Actors Guild chose "Life is Beautiful" and "Female" respectively. Adversary", the American Recording Guild chose the "thin red line".

In addition, the North American Broadcast Film Critics Association Award and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association chose "Shakespeare's Love History", the National Board of Review Award and the Golden Globe Award chose "Saving Private Ryan", the National Film Critics Association Award and the New York Film Critics Association chose "Truman's World", the Boston Film Critics Association Award and the San Francisco Film Critics Association Award chose "The Thin Red Line", and the Chicago Film Critics Association Award, the Southeast Film Critics Association Award, and the San Diego Film Critics Association Award all chose "Life is Beautiful".

As expected, the pattern of "Saving Private Ryan" or "Truman's World" sweeping thousands of armies did not appear, but on the contrary, the five works were evenly matched, and the overall momentum was completely comparable, making it completely impossible for people to grasp the overall context of this awards season.

On the one hand, because this is the first year of the awards season, everyone is not on the same frequency, and they are not working towards the same goal as the "Oscars", and their different judging criteria have led to completely different results; On the one hand, it is because the public relations war has initially shown its power, and the two absolutely leading works were released in the summer vacation, which is really too "long" from December, and it is not surprising that they are at a disadvantage in the absence of sufficient public relations and publicity strategies.

From the list of winners of the Golden Globe Awards to the list of Oscar nominees, for the first time, insiders linked the "Oscars" with the "awards season", and truly realized the meaning of the awards season. It's a win-win strategy and no one will say no!

It was at this moment that the Weinstein brothers really noticed, the two producers who walked from behind the scenes to the front of the half-act for the first time, and took the "Shakespeare in Love" crew to every corner of Hollywood, so that the prestige of the work accumulated little by little, and finally achieved a big victory in the Oscar nomination stage.

This is a PR victory, not a strength victory.

It's not that "Shakespeare in Love" is a bad work, on the contrary, this work is actually of a good overall level, even if it is shortlisted for the Oscar for Best Picture, it will not cause too much controversy, which is the fundamental reason why the Weinstein brothers' public relations show can work - professionals are not stupid, they also have their own aesthetic standards. But the "trick" is precisely hidden in this blurred line.

"Shakespeare's Love History" is a masterpiece, but can it be compared to "Truman's World" and "Saving Private Ryan"? This is clearly not the case, let alone surpassing these two classics. But under the propaganda of the Weinstein brothers, people's perceptions have been shaken: Is this really the case?

Some negative rumors began to spread in the circle, such as "Saving Private Ryan" maliciously oppressed extras during filming, and many people were hospitalized after a long time of hard shooting; For example, the theme of "Truman's World" is too thin, and the overall quality is not as thick as imagined; For example, "Saving Private Ryan" is too sensational in its description of the humanity of war, but lacks reflection on war; For example, "Truman's World" caused water pollution on the set during filming, which caused great distress to the local area; For example, the rumor that "Saving Private Ryan" is disrespectful to World War II veterans; For example, the rumors of discrimination against black actors by the crew of "Truman's World......

Most of these rumors have not been confirmed, and they have only spread among small areas, which makes the crews of "Saving Private Ryan" and "Truman's World" very annoying, because if they explain solemnly, it will make things bigger and bigger, and there will be a little trouble when they are fine; But if they let it go, they won't be able to curb these rumors; If they explain one by one, they seem to take it too seriously, and it looks like they want to cover it up...... It's a real dilemma.

If it is like the negative news during the impact of "Schindler's List" on the Oscars, after it is completely big, in fact, there is no need to worry too much, because it can't be fake, and it can't be fake. It's just that these small rumors that can't be officially explained at all make people have no idea where to start.

It's like a rumor among classmates that someone's feet smell bad, it's not a big deal, and no one will deliberately verify it, and the person concerned can only deny it when he hears it, but there is no way to clarify it solemnly. Over time, this rumor became true, making people completely helpless.

Hidden behind these messy rumors, it is the rising momentum of "Shakespeare in Love", which has created a great victory in thirteen Oscar nominations, and even formed a pattern of the group of death, so that people have witnessed "Shakespeare Love" surpass other works without knowing what is happening, and become the current leading seed player.

This phenomenon is really intriguing.

Although "Saving Private Ryan" and "Truman's World" also launched related public relations activities in January, DreamWorks and Paramount Pictures are obviously too unfamiliar with this and have been accustomed to the royal road. It's just that I don't know what will happen in the next period of time, and what will happen to the situation of the war.

But what is certain is that the concept of awards season has gradually taken shape, and the example of college PR has emerged, and the changing market is full of expectations. In the midst of this buzz, February has been spent vigorously, and the 41st Grammys, which have been without glory to death, have been lackluster, following last year's Lianne Lyme, and the new female singer of rhythm and blues, Lauren Hill. Hill) came out of nowhere with five awards, but it didn't create more buzz.

Halfway through March, Hugo quietly returned to Los Angeles without alarming anyone.