It was September 2008.

The phone on Yoo Jun's desk rang suddenly.

"Hello."

"Secretary, hello, I'm Wei Ningsheng......" Wei Ningsheng's voice came from the phone, it seemed to be a little urgent, and he also used honorifics to Liu Jun: "Do you have time now?" I have something to report to you. ”

Liu Jun smiled and said, "Okay, please come over and make tea together." ”

After hanging up the phone, Yoo Jun turned out from behind his desk, sat down in the hospitality area, and slowly cleaned up the tea set on the coffee table. In fact, the tea sets were placed very neatly, and Secretary Liu just messed them up.

Over time, Yoo Jun's prestige in Province D gradually built.

The large-scale cadre exchanges and party school training that began in the first half of the year have achieved the expected results. As a matter of fact, so far, only about 20 cadres at the department and deputy department and bureau level have been exchanged in Province D, and only a dozen cadres have gone to the Party School of the Central Committee and the Party School of the Provincial Party Committee for further study. One hundred and fifty "indicators", only about a quarter of them were used. Among the cadres who were exchanged, only one secretary of the municipal party committee was still in the province, and the secretary of the municipal party committee was transferred to the deputy director of the organization department of the provincial party committee.

Rao is like this, which still has caused tremendous pressure on the middle-level cadres in the province. Liu Jun has a whip in one hand and candy in the other, leading but not triggering, and firmly grasping the initiative. With just one hand, he pinched the source. Not only are the leading cadres of various cities in awe of Secretary Liu, but they are also members of the standing team of the provincial party committee and provincial government, and they are all cautious.

Who doesn't have a few henchmen and cadres who want to "protect"?

However, Wei Ningsheng's politeness to Liu Jun is not only because of the problem of cadre exchanges. Instead, Wei Ningsheng discovered that the financial situation in the United States was moving in accordance with Liu Jun's "prediction", step by step. This made Wei Ningsheng highly vigilant. Previously, the reason why he opposed Liu Jun's plan and insisted that the economic transformation should be carried out steadily and should not be rushed was mainly because Wei Ningsheng believed in his own judgment and believed that the financial crisis in the United States would not break out.

As early as April last year, the New Century Financial Corporation, the second-largest subprime mortgage company in the United States, declared bankruptcy because of problems with subprime mortgage bonds, which caused the company to lose a large area. The Fed reacted by injecting liquidity into the financial system to boost market confidence, and the U.S. stock market was able to remain elevated, which does not look very bad.

It is precisely for this reason that Wei Ningsheng feels that whether it is a bubble economy or a subprime debt crisis, it is within the controllable range, and with the strength of the US economy and the mature experience of market operation, the crisis can be dealt with in the past and will not break out on a large scale. We don't have to worry about it.

Moreover, as the forefront of China's reform and opening up, Province D is adjacent to the two special administrative regions and has very close economic ties with each other. Once a financial crisis breaks out in the United States, the economies of the two special administrative regions will inevitably be greatly affected, and they will inevitably implicate the major economic cities of Jiangkou, Baidao, and Jiangzhong provinces.

In the depths of Wei Ningsheng's heart, he was extremely reluctant for the United States to break out in this crisis.

It's not good for everyone!

Of course, Secretary Liu's thoughts of "expecting" a crisis in the United States and even the entire European and American countries will not be understood by Wei Ningsheng.

But now it seems that Wei Ningsheng's hopes have been dashed, and the United States is accelerating into the abyss of the financial crisis.

Liu Jun knew very well the main reason why Wei Ningsheng was so anxious to see him.

About ten minutes later, Wei Ningsheng appeared in Liu Jun's office. Wei Ningsheng was surprised to find that it was not Zhou Liangchen but Liu Jun who was standing at the door of the office to greet him.

This is the first time.

In the past, when Wei Ningsheng came to Liu Jun's office, Liu Jun sat and waited in the hospitality area every time, and never waited for Wei Ningsheng to enter the door before turning out from behind the desk. Since Liu Jun arrived, he has always maintained this respectful attitude towards Wei Ningsheng.

This time, he stood at the door to greet him.

Wei Ningsheng hurriedly walked a few steps, stepped forward and shook hands with Liu Jun tightly: "Secretary, hello!" ”

"Hello, Governor."

Liu Jun smiled and invited Wei Ningsheng to sit down.

Liu Jun's politeness and respect for Wei Ningsheng is not only because of Wei Ningsheng's age, nor just because of the "need for unity". After a period of contact and understanding, Liu Jun learned that Wei Ningsheng's official reputation is still very good, and he is relatively upright. He may be a little conservative in his thinking, but he is steady, which is also a good moral character for senior cadres.

Leading the construction of the country's largest economic province is too radical, and it is obviously inappropriate to engage in "doing big work and moving quickly."

This is the main reason why Liu Jun respects Wei Ningsheng.

It doesn't matter if there are differences in work, you can seek common ground while reserving differences and slowly run in.

Liu Jun personally made a cup of tea for Wei Ningsheng. It can be seen that as soon as Wei Ningsheng's phone called, Liu Jun was making this preparation, and as soon as Wei Ningsheng arrived, he just drank hot kung fu tea.

Wei Ningsheng was also moved by this.

It can be seen from this that Liu Jun's respect for him is not pretended.

"Secretary, the situation is not optimistic...... Lehman Brothers is going to collapse......"

Wei Ningsheng took a sip of tea and said worriedly.

Liu Jun nodded and said indifferently: "It's time too." As soon as there is a problem with the two-real estate company, these investment banks will be unable to withstand it in the first place. ”

Just last month, during the 29th Olympic Games hosted in the capital, the stock prices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac began to plummet, and the speed of the decline was extremely frightening, and soon fell from a high of more than 70 US dollars to less than 10 US dollars. In just one month, the market value has evaporated by more than 90 percent.

The two-house company is the source of the U.S. subprime bond market and the main lever company for the U.S. government to regulate housing prices. The collapse in the share prices of these two companies means that the real estate market and the subordinated debt market in the United States are out of control.

Lehman Brothers, one of the five largest investment banks on Wall Street, also saw its share price plummet. Just a few days ago, in just one week, the stock price fell by seventy or eighty percent, and its market value evaporated from more than $10 billion to less than $2.5 billion.

Liu Jun's attitude was so bland that Wei Ningsheng was taken aback.

It seems that this result has long been expected by Yoo Joon.

"Secretary, you say, will the U.S. government take action this time?"

Wei Ningsheng groaned and asked in a low voice, with a sense of asking for advice. So far, Liu Jun's prediction of the financial situation in the United States is extremely accurate, and Wei Ningsheng unconsciously has a trace of superstition about Liu Jun.

Liu Jun shook his head lightly and said, "No." ”

Wei Ningsheng looked at Liu Jun inquiringly, hoping that he could give an explanation.

Liu Jun handed Wei Ningsheng a cigarette, lit one himself, took two puffs, and said, "Governor, there are two reasons for this. The first reason is that the U.S. government has no financial resources to support it. The bailout of Bear Stearns and the two-room company has already emptied the US government's pockets. Bailing out Lehman Brothers is not something that can be sustained by 3500000000000000000000000000000000000 In addition, there is a moral issue here. ”

"A moral question?"

Wei Ningsheng asked rhetorically.

How can the government bail out its own enterprises?

Liu Jun said slowly: "After the US government rescued Bear Stearns, the Federal Reserve received a lot of criticism for it. One of the most representative is why the government should use taxpayers' money to pay for the wrong investment decisions of private financial institutions. The government's bailout of private financial institutions may create a new moral hazard, that is, to encourage financial institutions to take greater risks, and the government will end up with the responsibility anyway. So this time, the U.S. government has to be more cautious. ”

Wei Ningsheng listened attentively.

"On the one hand, the subprime mortgage crisis has been broken out for more than a year, market investors have a relatively clear understanding of the causes of the subprime mortgage crisis and possible losses, and a series of rescue measures taken by the US government have begun to play a role, under this premise, the collapse of an investment bank will not cause greater panic in the financial markets; At least that's what the U.S. market mentality thinks right now......"

Speaking of this, a smile spread across the corners of Liu Jun's mouth, with a slight hint of ridicule.

As it turns out, this is just a good wish, and the situation will only get worse.

“…… On the other hand, the government has received so much criticism that the U.S. government also needs to clarify its position. Unless it triggers systemic risk, the U.S. government will not easily use taxpayer money to bail out private institutions. The private sector should be held accountable for its own decisions, not only by management but also by shareholders. Therefore, when the U.S. government rescued the two houses, it said that it only protected the interests of creditors, but removed the management of the two houses, and at the same time seriously diluted the equity value of the shareholders of the two houses. In this way, the U.S. government intends to send a message to the public that there is responsibility for failed investments, which is one of the core principles of the political market. ”

Wei Ningsheng nodded again and again, with admiration in his eyes.

Liu Jun's perspective on the problem is really different, and he seems to know the thoughts of American politicians well, and he also has a very deep understanding of the capitalist market economy. Perhaps, this is why he was able to predict the financial crisis in the United States so accurately.

However, Wei Ningsheng immediately became worried, frowned, and said, "Secretary, in this way, we are also in danger......

Yoo Joon's brows furrowed slightly.

"You see, if the U.S. government had that in mind, they wouldn't necessarily be protecting the interests of other investors. The so-called protection of the interests of creditors is said at this stage, and if the situation deteriorates further, is it possible for them to give up the interests of other creditors and only protect the interests of their own creditors? And with the exception of Treasury bonds, other bonds are theoretically unguaranteed by the U.S. government......"

Wei Ningsheng said worriedly.

Once you get to the specific technical level, the insight of the governor of province D is very good.