I wish all those who love this book a happy Christmas tonight!

Today is Christmas + Weekend! So you should understand#^_^#

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Forward a conspiracy theory analysis post on the Tianya Forum about the financial crisis of '08 for all book lovers who love this book to take a look at and have fun:

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The sudden collapse of Lehman Brothers caused the world economy to enter a rapid recession, and an economic crisis that swept the world has not yet seen signs of recovery. But there are growing suspicions that Lehman's collapse was a human factor, and the most subtle move Wall Street has ever made. All the impossibility became a reality because of the collapse of Lehman. Recent incidents have reinforced some inferences:

1. Greenberg, who has been the chairman of AIG for 37 years and is known as the Taishan Beidou of the U.S. insurance industry, has been investigated by New York State Attorney General Spitzer, federal prosecutors and the SEC on suspicion of illegally using financial reinsurance to falsely report income. Finally, he was forced to resign. The reason is that if you resign, you will not be able to criminally prosecute AIG, and if you do not, it will make AIG uneasy. In a 2008 interview with Greenberg on China's CCTV-2 Direct Attack Wall, he said something crucial: if he had not been forced to resign in March 2005, he would have remained at the helm of AIG. He would never tolerate AIG's massive insurance of subprime bonds, which would inevitably add a lot of strings and hedging.

2. The recent revelation that the economic forecasts of Goldman Sachs' internal high-level top-secret meeting (with the participation of the top chairman) before the subprime mortgage crisis were almost consistent with the final reality: the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis and the collapse of at least one large financial institution

3. Since 2001, Lehman Brothers has transferred funds to Hudson Castle on several occasions, totaling more than $1 billion, although the exact amount is unknown. However, Lehman Brothers' business reports do not contain any such record.

4. Lehman Brothers alone issued a large number of Lehman minibonds of HK$11.2 billion in Hong Kong from 2006 to 2007, and other large U.S. financial institutions did not issue a large number of them.

5。 U.S. Bankruptcy Court Special Examiner Anton Brown. After investigating Lehman, Volux said that when Lehman Brothers reported his investments to the board of directors, he did not specify the level of risk in the subprime mortgage market. In addition, the part of the annual report of Lehman that is related to the risk index is not complete, and even does not mention the issue of risk at all – it is difficult to imagine. Lehman Brothers, the fourth-largest investment bank in the United States founded 158 years ago, actually does not consider risks when making investments.

6. A Reuters report on July 16, 2008 showed that Goldman Sachs was seriously suspected of shorting Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers

7。 According to foreign media reports. The bankruptcy supervisor appointed by the Office of the U.S. Trustee noted in his report to the court. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup helped Lehman Brothers Holdings go bankrupt through increased collateral requirements and changing safeguards agreements.

8. Before Lehman's collapse, Paulson had as many as 50 secret phone calls with his old club Goldman Sachs, and Paulson refused to bail out Lehman

9。 During the financial crisis, JPMorgan Chase acquired Bear Stearns. Bank of America acquired Merrill Lynch after abandoning its acquisition of Lehman Brothers

10. Bank of America abandoned the acquisition of Lehman Brothers because the U.S. government refused to take responsibility for Lehman Brothers' loans in real estate. When JPMorgan Chase bought Bear Stearns, the U.S. government made a commitment to such assets in Bear Stearns. On behalf of the U.S. government, Paulson said he would not rescue Lehman Brothers.

11. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on June 14, 2008 that although it is not yet clear the relationship between financial speculation and the surge in international oil prices, at the request of the Group of Eight (G8) finance ministers, the IMF will cooperate with the International Energy Agency (IEA) to investigate the possible speculation behind the high oil prices - in fact, it is suspected that Wall Street manipulates oil

12. Before the collapse of Lehman, Goldman Sachs signed a large number of oil VAM agreements with Chinese companies, and when the oil price was between 100 and 140 and the rise was expected to be strong, the price of oil was below $62, and finally the price of oil fell by more than 75% in five months after the highest point of $147

13. The collapse of Lehman turned Obama, who was already behind McCain in 2008, and became the current president of the United States in one fell swoop

14. The major financial institutions in the United States, which have always claimed to have made long-term strategic investments in the Bank of China, had to sell off the shares invested in the Bank of China as soon as the ban was lifted because of the difficulties in capital turnover caused by the collapse of Lehman, and the result was that the major investment financial institutions in the United States actually made a lot of money in China (only the ICBC invested by Goldman Sachs did not sell all of them after expiration, and took the initiative to extend the lock-up period of 80% of the shares they held), and they were fully understood by the Chinese partners. However, a spokesman for the Bank of China still accused foreign strategic investors of "taking salaries from the bottom of the kettle".

Through the above many doubts, it is not difficult to draw the following conclusions:

1. In 2001, after the dot-com bubble burst, the U.S. government was eager to find new economic growth points. As a result, they (this "they" means: the government?) Fed? Wall Street? Real estate was chosen, and in order to quickly start real estate as a driving force in the economy, they took the approach of lowering interest rates and down payments. The federal interest rate in the United States has been lowered from 6.5 per cent on 3 January 2001 to 1 per cent on 25 June 2003, and has remained below 2 per cent for almost three years from November 2001 to December 2004. And in 2004, in order to attract low-subprime mortgage people to join the home buying army, they introduced selective adjustable-rate loans, allowing buyers to buy more homes than they can afford. As a result of these actions, there will inevitably be a lot of bad debts in the end (unless house prices never stop rising). And subprime buyers can pay off the loan and interest rate by selling their home). Of course, Wall Street elites are aware of these risks, so Wall Street elites have to find a way to transfer some of these risks. So a plan to transfer the risk was put into place.

2. First of all, it is necessary to package these subprime mortgage loans, specifically: let the two houses with the implicit guarantee of the US government raise funds through the issuance of bonds, lend to subprime loan buyers, and let the largest insurance company in the United States (AIG) guarantee; The second is to sell these loan collateral to major financial institutions in the United States, and let the American financial institutions securitize these subprime mortgage assets. Plus AAA rating from a U.S. rating agency. Began to peddle these toxic assets to the world. Tightly packaged subprime mortgage financial products can only be sold in full swing - but Greenberg, the former chairman of AIG, is a very shrewd and risk-aware person, and has a deep affection for AIG (the media describes AIG as his child), so the previous suspicions naturally arise, and they know that it will be difficult to convince Greenberg. So they have to find a way to get the former chairman of AIG out of class. Finally, Greenberg was forced out of class in March 2005, and AIG began to provide a large number of suicide guarantees for subprime mortgages.

3. Since the two houses are the main lenders, they naturally become the first responsible persons for sub-lending. So they are bound to lose a lot. Since the two houses are bound to lose money. Therefore, it is most appropriate for them to issue bonds in large quantities. Because they have a lot of debt, and they can transfer a lot of assets before their losses are exposed. That's why there was the scene that Song Hongbing saw when he was working in the two rooms - the financial products of the two rooms kept being sold and came back. In fact, before the loss exposure was taken over, the assets of the two houses began to be transferred, so that the assets of the two houses were hollowed out. Moreover, in 2006, Song Hongbing found that Liangfang was preparing for layoffs, which shows that Liangfang has a clear judgment on the subprime mortgage crisis. Therefore, it is not practical to hope that the United States will guarantee the final guarantee for the two houses.

4, but this game cannot be without the losses and failures of investment banks, otherwise it will be suspected, and these toxic assets cannot all be sold to foreign institutions and governments. So they chose Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch, and Lehman Brothers was designed to have to collapse (so Goldman Sachs was able to accurately anticipate future financial changes in the United States in an internal high-level meeting) but why did Lehman Brothers start moving assets in 2001? Could it have been in 2001 that these were already designed (I'll talk about Wall Street later, another horrific plan). Therefore, Lehman's behavior in transferring assets can be reasonable. And it would be logical for Lehman Brothers to issue minibonds on its own. And in the end, it is logical to transfer a large number of subprime mortgage products to Lehman. (At the time of Lehman's collapse, it held more than 11% of the total subprime mortgage products in the United States) - but the reluctant Lehman executives secretly transferred Lehman's assets.

That's why Goldman Sachs shorted Lehman and Bear Stearns, and JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup helped Lehman Brothers Holdings go bankrupt by increasing collateral requirements and changing safeguard agreements. Paulson spoke secretly to Goldman Sachs 50 times and steadfastly refused to bail out Lehman Brothers. On the same day of Lehman's collapse, the German National Development Bank actually remitted 300 million euros to Lehman, and Lehman employees walked out of Lehman's office building with a blank face. It can be seen how unexpected the collapse of Lehman was.

5. Wall Street has designed their profit model according to their plan and the world economic situation, mainly, to let the world indulge in economic prosperity and overheat the world economy. And in the hot situation of the world economy at that time, the faster and more sudden the economic reversal, the stronger the profitability of the model they designed, so everyone will see the phenomenon

Wall Street hyped commodities and the Baltic Index to their highs, and then through the sudden collapse of Lehman Brothers, which was suddenly made. Let the commodities and the Baltic Index fall sharply beyond everyone's expectations. Finally, in 2008, oil fell by 78% from a peak of $147 in just over four months, while the Baltic Index fell from a height of 10,000 points to below 1,000 yuan. The Chinese government urgently injected tens of billions of dollars into several major airlines, and finally the Chinese government had to state that it might not recognize the VAM agreement between the state-owned enterprises and Goldman Sachs. On December 16, 2008, China COSCO announced that due to the sharp drop in freight rates, as of December 12, the company's dry bulk carrier company held a total of 5.38 billion yuan in fair value change loss of forward freight agreement (FFA), which was offset by 1.43 billion yuan of delivered gains, and there was still a floating loss of 3.95 billion yuan.

Their methods of pushing up oil are: let the United States create tension against Iran, Iran threatens to block oil channels, Goldman Sachs sings more oil to $200, international organizations declare that oil has entered an era of high prices, and Wall Street is a large number of long oil futures;

The way to hit oil prices was to end the Iran crisis, get Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to announce an increase in oil production (at that time, OPEC believed that high oil prices were the so-called national speculators, and the world's oil supply was sufficient, which is the best proof that OPEC was right), and Bush announced the development of oil offshore the United States. The main thing is the world recession caused by the collapse of Lehman, which reduced the demand for oil.

6. The design of Lehman's collapse time can be said to be exquisite. First, they must strike at Obama's most critical moment, so that Obama can both report and demand more leverage from Obama.

That's why we saw the sudden collapse of Lehman in early September 2008, when Obama's votes were already clearly behind. Let Obama turn defeat into victory, it can be said that without the collapse of Lehman, it would be difficult for Obama to finally become the president of the United States.

7. The collapse of Lehman Brothers gave foreign banks that had no excuse to withdraw profits from China find the best excuse, so that they finally sold the stocks of Chinese banks and made a big profit.

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The above –

It is a conspiracy theory analysis post about the 08 financial crisis forwarded on the Tianya forum, for all book lovers who love this book to take a look at and have fun! I wish all those who love this book a happy Christmas tonight! (To be continued.) )