Chapter 102: The Second Oil Crisis
$10 million was a lot of money in 1979, and Stephanie was very kind to the newly rising young billionaire.
The three of them went to the Banque de France, and with the relationship of Peugeot, Lin Qiangsheng easily became a big customer of this bank, and gave him a VIP bank card, which has the privilege of handling business, and the time is fast and convenient.
After saying goodbye to Bregley, Johnson Lin and Stephanie went to Peugeot's investment bank together to sign a contract for entrusted investment, authorizing Stephanie to invest the money on behalf of Johnson Lin.
"Stephanie, I think oil futures may be able to hold out for a long time, how about I invest in this?" Lin Qiangsheng asked Stephanie.
Stephanie nodded and said, "Absolutely!" She quickly picked up the notebook and said: "At present, most investment managers encourage customers to do oil futures, and the entry currency is huge, and oil futures are resistant, which drives the confidence of investors!" If you are interested, I can handle the investment for you, I will recommend you oil futures OTC trading, so that the margin required is small and the operation is more convenient, and the return of funds is also guaranteed! ”
Stephanie went on to explain to Lin: "Since the first oil crisis in 1973, the Central and Eastern European Parker organization has been trying to control the production of crude oil and increase the price of crude oil. At the end of 1978, the crude oil production in the Middle East market fell again, and the political situation in Iran changed to exacerbate the uneasiness of the international market about the oil production in the Middle East! Western observers predict that this is a harbinger of the beginning of the second oil crisis! ”
The second oil crisis in history occurred in 1979-1980.
At the end of 1978, the "Islamic Revolution" that overthrew the rule of Shah Pahlavi took place in Iran, then the world's second-largest oil exporter. From December 26, 1978 to March 4, 1979, Iran's oil exports all stopped, the world's oil supply suddenly decreased by 5 million barrels per day, and Western governments and oil companies rushed to buy oil on the spot market, causing oil supply shortages, and oil prices soared from $13 to $34 per barrel, triggering the second "oil crisis".
Then, on September 22, 1980, Iraq raided Iran, and the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war completely interrupted the oil exports of Iran and Iraq, and the price of oil in the international market soared to $42 per barrel. However, due to the rush to buy since 1979, which lasted for more than a year, Western countries had relatively sufficient oil reserves, and Saudi Arabia rapidly increased its own oil production, so by 1981, oil prices finally stabilized within the OPEC price range of 34~36 US dollars per barrel.
These two sharp increases in oil prices have had a severe impact on the economies of developed countries, and at the same time, they have also promoted oil exploration and development in non-OPEC regions of developed countries. As a result, after 1982, there was an oversupply of oil in the world oil market.
Lin Qiangsheng clearly remembered that oil futures were in a steady upward period during the two years from 1979 to 1980, even if there was a shock downside, it was a small amplitude, so he thought about it for a while and said: "Stephanie, I plan to raise 50 times the leverage to buy oil futures, you can help me do an analysis!" ”
Stephanie was amazed by Lin Johnson's courage, and just got a sum of money and put it all out of the market.
She first sorted out a list of oil futures trends in recent months, and after accommodating it, she talked to Lin Qiangsheng about the risks of the market and some financial knowledge, and then signed an entrusted investment agreement for oil futures with Lin Qiangsheng.
Since the end of 1978, the oil futures market has been steadily rising, and the price range of 13~14 US dollars per barrel of oil is currently maintained because of the fall of the Shah government on February 11 with the Islamic Revolution in Iran. Iran's oil production may be greatly affected in the near future, and international oil futures will rise.
"10 million US dollars, 50 times the financing leverage is 500 million US dollars such a large amount of funds, if you want to enter the oil futures market smoothly and not be blocked by speculators, you must make a detailed plan to enter the market! Now you need me, a financial investment expert, to serve you! Stephanie said excitedly, and then began to formulate a strategy for entering the market, while looking for information on various aspects of the phone and began to make phone calls, busy in the small office for a while.
In the 70s of the 20th century, two oil crises drove oil prices to soar. In 1970, the official price of Saudi crude oil was $1.8 per barrel; In 1974 (the first oil crisis), the price of crude oil exceeded $10 per barrel for the first time; In 1979 (the second oil crisis), the price of crude oil exceeded $20 per barrel for the first time; In 1980, the price of crude oil exceeded $30 per barrel for the first time; At the beginning of 1981, the international crude oil price reached a maximum of 39 US dollars per barrel; Subsequently, international oil prices fell wave by wave, and a 20-year period of stable oil prices began.
Stephanie was busy, and Lin Qiangsheng sat in the chair with empty eyes, and his mind kept thinking nonsense.
"Sir, Mr. Lin?" Stephanie exclaimed.
I don't know how long it took for Lin Qiangsheng to come to his senses when he heard the voice calling himself, and he said to Stephanie: "Let's make a plan for $8 million first!" Leave me $2 million in the account. ”
Stephanie nodded after hearing this, and said with a smile: "I fully understand your worries, after all, the oil futures market is risky!" Even now when the market is generally bullish! ”
Lin Qiangsheng nodded with a smile and said, "Please make a detailed plan to enter the market, I don't want to be blocked by any bad guy and killed!" ”
Lin Qiangsheng is not really worried about any major changes in the oil futures market, as far as he knows, the oil futures curve from 1979 to the middle of 1981 is in the process of rising, and the oil futures curve is a stable flat line from the beginning of 1978 to March 1979, there is no major change, and the period of the next two years is up! What's more, at this time, Western countries are frantically rushing to buy oil.
Stephanie said: "A 1-50 guarantee, 8 million is 400 million US dollars, which is a lot. I'll be careful! I plan to put all $400 million into the futures market within 3 months. ”
Lin Qiangsheng nodded and said, "Let's do it, I plan to hold this batch of futures for a long time." It's about 2 years! ”
Stephanie was surprised: "You are so confident in the future of the oil market!" Gambling is very risky for private investors, and it is likely that they will lose all their money! I think you should think about it before making a decision, and have more open communication with me to build mutual trust! ”
Lin Qiangsheng nodded and said, "Thank you, Stephanie!" I feel that I made the right decision, and I believe that the future of the international oil producing region will be even more volatile, and I am sure of that! ”
Stephanie made a helpless expression and said, "In this case, I must remind you that with 50 times leverage, the investment bank will closely monitor your futures market." If the price of oil in the oil futures market falls by 2 points, your capital loss may be magnified by 50 times, more than 8 million! If you don't add funds, you may be forced out by the investment bank! Leveraged financing can double your returns, and so can your risk. ”
Lin Qiangsheng thought about it, nodded anyway, and said, "Let's put it all in!" Now that it's decided, I'm trusting my own judgment! Trust me in good luck! ”
The key is that Lin Qiangsheng really did not find out in his memory that the oil futures market in the past two years has fluctuated. With the intensification of the crisis in the Middle East, the Iranian revolution, the hostage crisis, the war in Afghanistan, and the Iran-Iraq war, the oil futures market has indeed gone all the way up. What fool would go against the general trend and operate in the opposite direction, and it is impossible for him to mobilize a huge amount of money to confront the forces of the whole world, Eastern and Western societies!
Seeing Lin Qiangsheng's determined expression, Stephanie reluctantly told him some risks and his responsibilities. The two signed a long agreement.
Seeing that the time was almost up, Lin Qiangsheng said: "Stephanie, I'm going back to the hotel, maybe I'll go back to China in the near future, you can help me handle the investment, I will keep in touch with you often!" ”
Stephanie also learned about Lin Qiangsheng's situation, nodded, and said, "I know, you are going to return to China." Don't worry, I'm a professional investment advisor with integrity, and I'll help you handle it well! ”
Lin Qiangsheng said in surprise: "Oh? Then you can help me register a company! Or buy one, I'm about to own a car factory in the UK! ”
Stephanie laughed, "Is that the Lynnwood factory that closed?" I think you'd better not expect too much from it as well! ”
She then nodded and said, "I'll handle it for you, but we have to sign the entrustment agreement first!" And what are you going to call your company? ”
Lin Qiangsheng rolled his eyes, he didn't expect that he was not a big man, so he signed all day long!