Zhang Zijian walked to the podium and looked at Gao Xiaobo, who was looking at him with his eyes. Afterwards, Gao Xiaobo gave Zhang Zijian a place and said to the following students: "Next, we will ask this student to explain his views on the Japanese economy." After finishing speaking, he suddenly looked at Zhang Zijian and asked, "What's your name?" ”

"Zhang Zijian" in the university lecturer does not know the student and can't even call the name, this is normal, and it is not the tutor to lead the student, looking at the bright eyes, Zhang Zijian still quickly reported his name, Zhang Zijian said in his heart: After I add, you will remember my name.

Zhang Zijian did not show how much ability he had in front of Gao Xiaobo, but became interested in Gao Xiaobo, if he wanted to accept this fierce general, he had to show his real skills to surrender, and the students surrendered to the teacher to work, which was often seen in later generations, but in the period of reform and opening up, although Zhang Zijian was not the first person, he was also a daring to eat crabs.

Zhang Zijian walked to the blackboard, took the blackboard eraser, rubbed out a piece, connected it with charts and candles, and connected it with a few lines, looked at Gao Xiaobo, and said to the students below: "Everyone prepare!" What I said is also the point, remember as much as you can, and I will not repeat it for you. ”

This guy is quite high-profile, after speaking, the classmates under the podium let out a boo laugh, especially the few girls sitting in front of them, covering their mouths and laughing.

When everyone stopped laughing and looked up at him, Zhang Zijian was also like Gao Xiaobo, holding the podium with both hands, and said loudly: "Some time ago, I read a report, it was written by a Japanese, I don't know where it came from, those few pieces of paper are not complete, and I don't even know the name of the sitting. In a fit of rage, I became constipated. ”

Although this guy was ridiculing himself, watching the laughing classmates below turn their backs, he was still proud in his heart. This guy is afraid of talking too much, and someone will ask him who wrote it and what the name of the magazine is. In order to avoid this kind of inquiry, this guy had to say this.

Motioning to everyone to be quiet, Zhang Zijian said: "Everyone sees that today's Japan itself is in an unprecedented economic crisis, and the insiders are lackluster. In the light of all these considerations, I believe that in the face of the crisis, the Japanese government's policy of dealing with non-performing assets first was indeed problematic, and the fiscal measures taken afterwards did not produce the desired results. Looking at the sudden stagnation of the Japanese economy, which had been smooth sailing in the past, there should be a corresponding special reason. The contrast between Japan, the world's largest creditor, and the fact that it can only watch in amazement as the economy of the United States, the world's largest debtor, soars to a new level.

The distortion of the relationship between the yen and the U.S. dollar led to the U.S. belief that Japan's economy was fragile and ultimately failed in the financial war. Since Japan's foreign creditors are the monetary assets of the debtor countries, i.e., the US dollar assets, the United States can easily reduce its own debt burden by playing with the exchange rate, and at the same time it can gain the benefit of stifling Japan's national strength. And in order to avoid bad luck, Japan has to continue to work hard to support the dollar. All of this has left Japan in desperation and desperate."

Zhang Zijian just said a little fast, everyone couldn't keep up when they made notes, and when he finished speaking, there were still many students writing with their heads down. Gao Xiaobo looked at Zhang Zijian on the standing platform with bright eyes, and applauded vigorously with both hands. Although the voice was not loud, it brought back the students who were still writing. His roommates were the first to applaud, and the applause grew louder and louder, until everyone in the class applauded him sincerely. The whole classroom was surrounded by applause, and the voices were endless, and they lasted for a long time. Zhang Zijian realized that everyone was quiet again, and said: "The reason why the Japanese will fail is because of a capital operation, everyone should know that stocks are one of the most typical capital operations, but as early as 82 years, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was the first to successfully develop the stock index futures, which is an unprecedented financial weapon, what is the stock index, it was originally used to rob the New York Stock Exchange business. Then the Americans applied the stock index to the Japanese. ”

Zhang Zijian said sideways, looked at Gao Xiaobo, who kept nodding, and continued: "In view of Japan's strong financial strength, international bankers are not sure of victory in the traditional conventional financial battlefield, and to deal a fatal blow to the Japanese financial system, it is necessary to use the financial nuclear bomb just developed by the United States: stock index futures. This new word is still very esoteric for our first-year students, please remember this professional term. Let's talk about the number of stock index periods on the Chicago Board of Trade.

When people buy and sell confidence in the New York stock index in Chicago, they no longer have to pay commissions to New York stock dealers. A stock index is nothing more than a weighted number from a list of listed companies, while stock index futures are betting on the future stock price movements of the companies on this list, and neither the buyer nor the seller owns or intends to own the stocks themselves.

The stock market is playing with confidence, and large-scale shorting of stock index futures will inevitably lead to a stock market crash, which has been effectively verified in the New York stock market crash in October '87. Regarding the Black Monday report, you can take a look at the many financial ** offerings, and I won't explain too much here. ”

After Zhang Zijian finished speaking, he turned around and walked to the blackboard, and scratched out a blank space, writing the Dow Jones index and the Nikkei index. Turning around, he continued: "Japan's economic boom has given the Japanese a sense of superiority to a certain extent. At a time when Japanese stock prices are so high that no sane Western commentator can understand Cheng dù, the Japanese still have plenty of reason to believe that they are unique. An American investment expert who was in Japan at the time put it this way: "There was a belief here that the Japanese stock market could not fall, and it was still in '87, '88, and even '89. They felt that there was something very special that was stored in their stock market, in the whole Japanese nation, and that this special thing could make Japan go against all the laws of storing in the world. ”

"So, what makes the Japanese so rampant? High-priced stock market, high-priced housing. People only need to put their money in the stock market and close their eyes to the point where they can make money, what a K-line! Technical! News side! Political factors and so on, don't pay attention to it, put it in for one dollar, and ten yuan out. ”

Zhang Zijian's example is somewhat exaggerated, so that the writing students look at him! Some are still laughing.

"Insurance companies are a very important investor in Tokyo's stock market. When a group of investment banks, such as Morgan Stanley and Salomon Brothers, sent by international bankers as the main shock force, they were armed with large amounts of cash and searched for potential targets, and their briefcases were stuffed with "stock index put options," a new financial product that was unheard of in Japan at the time. In the eyes of the Japanese, these Americans must have had water in their minds and used a lot of cash to buy the possibility of a crash in the Japanese stock market, which is simply impossible, and the Japanese insurance industry readily accepted it. The two sides bet on the direction of the Nikkei, if the index falls, the Americans make money and the Japanese lose money; If the index rises, the opposite is true.

Even Japan's Ministry of Finance may not be able to keep track of how many of these financial derivative contracts were traded before the stock market crashed, and this undetected 'financial crisis' is spreading rapidly in the illusion of prosperity in an unregulated, secret, over-the-counter underground market. ”

"Americans are worse than Japan!" Just when Zhang Zijian finished speaking this paragraph, I don't know who said such a sentence. Zhang Zijian looked at the classmate who spoke with a smile and said, "It can't be said that it is bad, you can use different means to fight the enemy." ”

"Will the Americans do the same against us?" A female classmate asked.

"Yes, the premise is that China's stock market is established, and financial institutions are between perfect and imperfect. The other is the issue of the exchange rate, we have a fixed exchange rate, and once we open the exchange rate, the first one suffers, unless there are huge foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves. ”

After Zhang Zijian finished speaking, he gestured with both hands and said, "If you have questions, I'll ask them!" I'll finish talking about it first. ”

Seeing that everyone was ready again, he said, "On December 29, 89, the Japanese stock market reached an all-time high, the Nikkei index rushed to 38,915 points, and a large number of stock index short selling options finally began to exert their power. The Nikkei index staggered. On January 12 of this year, the Americans made a killer move, and a new financial product, the "Nikkei put warrant", suddenly appeared on the US exchange, and the stock index options that Goldman Sachs bought from the Japanese insurance industry were resold to the Kingdom of Denmark, which sold them to the buyers of the warrants, and promised to pay the proceeds to the owners of the "Nikkei put warrants" when the Nikkei index went down. The Kingdom of Denmark is here just for Goldman Sachs to borrow its credibility and super-strengthen the sale of Nikkei options in Goldman Sachs' hands. The warrant was immediately sold in the United States, and a large number of American investment banks followed suit, and the Japanese stock market could no longer bear the strength, and the "Nikkei put warrant" collapsed less than a month after it was listed.

The collapse of the stock market first spilled over into Japan's banking and insurance sectors, and eventually into manufacturing. Japan's manufacturing sector, which used to be able to raise money on the stock market at least half the cost of its American rivals, has become obscure with the downturn in the stock market. This is the reason for the collapse of the Japanese economy, and the consequences for Japan's finances this year are almost as similar to those of defeat in World War II. From the rout to July, it has only calmed down, and so far it is still in a stable situation, and if it were not for the Japanese government's immediate decision to interfere with the foreign exchange market, Japan might be poorer than us. ”

After Zhang Zijian finished speaking, he smiled and continued: "I heard that on the second day of the stock market crash, many people lined up to jump off the building. The suicide rate is unprecedented, and there are people jumping off buildings every day. ”

After this guy finished speaking, the whole class burst into thunderous applause.

Zhang Zijian smiled, feeling that he had a sense of honor, and this time the applause was a little longer, and after satisfying his sense of vanity, Zhang Zijian said: "Someone has said that there is no country in the world that is more faithful and active in supporting the policy of fiscal deficits and huge expenditures of the Reagan era than Japan, the former enemy of the United States." Not even Germany has met Washington's demands unconditionally. In the eyes of the Japanese, Tokyo's loyal and generous purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds, real estate, and other assets was rewarded for the most devastating financial disaster in world history.

Therefore, if the Americans not only support the Japanese, but also continue to draw their blood, what can be seen if we compare the sluggishness of the Japanese bond market with the large-scale investment of Japanese funds in dollar bonds that began in the 80s? While it is unlikely that an accurate prediction based on rigorous analysis can be considered, at least the following assumptions can be considered.

If Japan's samurai bond market had developed rapidly since the 70s by boldly deregulating and improving infrastructure, it would not be difficult to bring an abundance of yen bonds to Japanese investors. At the same time, despite the attractiveness of US Treasuries, if the Japanese bond market improves, it will act as a brake by diversifying its investments during the flood of the 80s. At least those funds that have switched to yen assets can escape the loss of the exchange rate. It is conceivable that the United States will issue yen 'Reagan bonds' on a regular basis, just as it did in the case of the Mark 'Carter Bonds' according to the size of its own funding gap. In the first half of the '80s, if it weren't for the massive influx of Japanese money into the United States, the U.S. economy would have gone in a very different direction than it does today. However, the economic relations between Japan and the United States have developed on a completely different trajectory, and the Japanese economy in the last 20 years of this century has taken a very unusual path. ”

The more Zhang Zijian spoke, the more fluent he became, and various numbers and textual reports kept appearing in his mind, sorting them out a little and saying them quickly. The mouth kept open, the lips touched up and down, and the occasional spat splashed.

"In '84, at the Yen Dollar Committee, the United States forced Japan to liberalize its finances and internationalize the yen. Looking back now, it can be said that it was Japan's last chance. It seems that if Japan's monetary policy authorities are subdued by 'external pressures' in Japan-US economic negotiations, as they have done in the past, Japan will be able to do a blessing in disguise. However, the fact is that Japan has only relaxed the standards for the bonds of private issuers, and has not done anything about the bond trusteeship and registration system that involves the rights and interests of financial villages, as well as the banning control and customary forces, and the problem of high costs in the Japanese bond market still exists.

In order to foster samurai bonds and truly develop the yen's capital market, it is necessary to at least liberalize the fees for trusteeship and registration, or significantly reduce the fees.

In addition, regulations should be deregulated for overseas issuers, as well as for large Japanese companies such as Hitachi and Toshiba. However, this means that Japan's financial institutions must give up their rights and interests that they had had since before the war. Japan's Ministry of Finance, which is the world's number one vested interest and a member of Japan's financial community of interests, is indeed reluctant to make waves in Japan's financial villages. Times have changed, and the lack of such an understanding of the overall situation is Japan's fatal flaw.

What would have happened if the Japanese financial authorities had taken advantage of the fact that the Japanese Yen and Dollar Committee had asked Japan to liberalize its financial markets in the second half of the 80s, and that it should have deregulated the bond market and improve the basic conditions of the financial market? In that case, Asian countries that have been relying on bank loans as their main means of financing will flock to the yen bond market to borrow money. At the same time, with the participation of Japanese rating agencies, the yen bond market can provide Japanese investors with investment objects without exchange rate risk, and this may be an opportunity to build a small world of the yen in Asia, and it will be extinguished before a prairie fire is formed. ”

After Zhang Zijian finished speaking, he walked to the edge of the podium, bowed slightly, looked up at everyone and said: "This is my understanding of the Japanese economy, although it is not very comprehensive, but it can give us a lot of inspiration, in case of China's economic development, enter the World Trade Organization and other institutions, then Japan's example will be the risk we face, when the time comes, prices will rise, RMB appreciation, real estate will rise sharply, and even the stock market that is now planned to open will also rise and fall." The country's macroeconomic regulation and control is facing unprecedented pressure. ”

The applause continued, Zhang Zijian nodded slightly at Professor Gao Xiaobo and walked back to his seat.

Gao Xiaobo looked at Zhang Zijian with great satisfaction, this student gave him too many surprises, especially the study of the development and process of the Japanese economy, which is completely beyond the knowledge of the current news, and it is impossible to get so much information without the foundation of many years of research. On second thought, is this a first-year student?

When Zhang Zijian sat down, there were still many people looking at this guy with envy. Gao Xiaobo said to the whole class that he wanted to learn from Zhang Zijian. But at this moment, the pager that Zhang Zijian wanted to get on rang at the same time as the mobile phone in the bag.

His eyes focused on this guy again, and Gao Xiaobo was also stunned. His eyes were fixed on Zhang Zijian again.

This guy knew in his heart that the two communication tools rang at the same time, there must be something big, he didn't even look at who came, he directly packed his things, put them in his bag, and quickly walked to Gao Xiaobo's side, and said to him: "I'm sorry teacher, I have something urgent!" I'll talk to you alone! Throwing down these words, Zhang Zijian flew out of the classroom, and then he heard a few boos in the classroom.

It's just what Zhang Zijian just said is wonderful, otherwise Gao Xiaobo wouldn't let go of this guy.

After running out of the classroom, the mobile phone rang again, and after a quick connection, I heard a voice anxiously said to him: "I'm waiting for you at the school gate, there is an emergency." ”

The voice is obviously Jiang Lina's, could it be that the beautiful girl was kidnapped? The guy ran to the car without saying a word and quickly lit the fire.

At the school gate, I saw the anxious figure, and there was also a girl beside her, with a round little face, slightly fat. The car drove to the side of the two, Jiang Lina took the girl's hand and jumped into the car.

"Xuhui District Hospital. Hurry up. After Jiang Lina got into the car, she said hurriedly.

Zhang Zijian didn't move much, this guy's chest is very tight, we are the young master, not your personal driver, this is a private car, not a taxi? ……

Thanks to the three great monthly passes...... Thank you. V