Hear Sandy. Will asked, and Jester immediately withdrew his gaze.

He was indeed interested in Japan, the yen to be exact, and this time, he wanted to talk to Sandy. Will is discussing this matter, but the "Plaza Accord" is still four months away, and the plan is still under confidential negotiations, although some people have already found some clues from some of the actions of the United States, but this kind of thing that can affect the rise and fall of an economic power is simply impossible to predict accurately.

So, Jester first groaned, and he looked at Sandy. Will glanced at it, and then said, "Japan has such a big trade surplus with us, how long can our government endure it?" ”

Hearing Jester's reply, Sandy. Will glanced at Jester in some surprise, he didn't expect Jester to think of this level.

He first groaned for a moment, and then asked with a somewhat examining smile, "What?" Jace, do you think that we can't reverse this deficit with Japan by purely commercial practices? Do you have to rely on the power of the administration you are talking about? You know, some people have come together to ask our federal government to come up with a proposal to restrict Japanese imports from us, but it hasn't been approved. ”

For these more detailed analyses Jester is not a professional financial person, he can't say it, but he knows the simplest truth, that is, no country can tolerate such a large trade deficit with a country that is just its own vassal country, even if the government of this country can tolerate it, then the people of this country cannot tolerate it, and now the hostility towards Japan in the United States has been very strict, and under this hostile situation, plus a tough president, It became an inevitable choice to take action against Japan.

The previous proposal to restrict imports was not passed, just because the time has not yet come, and it is only a small restriction proposal, and the Americans have not yet put it in their eyes, in their eyes, since it is better to do it directly.

The Japanese are still immersed in the ecstasy of their growth into the world's second largest economy and the GNP surpassing the United States, and they simply do not realize that the United States has long been gearing up for a huge conspiracy and is slowly waiting for Japan to be caught.

Seeing that Jester didn't immediately answer the question just now, Sandy. Will only smiled disapprovingly, and he continued to say quietly: "How can we save our trade deficit?" Let our currency depreciate? "With that, Sandy. Will's eyes flickered, and his tone became a little stern, "Have you forgotten the economic disaster in the seventh year of Jì?" ”

Hear Sandy. As soon as Will said this, Jester remembered a past incident that happened in 1977 that was a disaster for the entire American business community, because it had only been long ago, so it was particularly fresh in the memory of everyone in this era.

The U.S. began to have a trade surplus, not in a few years, but in '77, but it wasn't as strict as it is now, when Treasury Secretary Brumesa of the Carter administration verbally intervened in the foreign exchange market on the grounds of the trade surplus between Japan and the former Federal Republic of Germany, hoping to stimulate U.S. exports and reduce the U.S. trade deficit through measures to depreciate the dollar. His speech led investors to a frenzied sell-off of the dollar, which depreciated sharply against the currencies of major industrial countries. At the beginning of 1977, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the yen was 290 yen per dollar, and in the fall of 1978 it fell to a minimum of 170 yen, a decline of 41.38. The U.S. government was shocked, and in the fall of 1978, President Carter launched a "Dollar Rescue Package" to prop up the dollar.

Originally, this plan was good enough to solve the crisis caused by this improper treatment, but the second oil crisis that followed completely failed the plan.

It was the oil crisis that broke out at the end of 1979 that caused energy prices in the United States to rise sharply, and the consumer price index in the United States rose accordingly. For example, if you put money in a bank at the beginning of 1980, the real rate of return at the end of the year will be negative 12.4 percent, which means that the money in the bank will not only not be able to maintain its value, but will even depreciate at an alarming rate.

And it was at this most dire moment that Paul. Volcker was appointed to take over as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, the central bank of the United States, and in order to completely reverse this catastrophic inflation, he raised official interest rates three times in a row and implemented a tight monetary policy. As a result of this policy, official interest rates and market interest rates of 20 percent in the United States were high, and short-term real interest rates rose from an average near zero level between 1954 and 1978 to 3-5 between 1980 and 1984.

High interest rates attracted large amounts of foreign capital into the United States, causing the dollar to soar, rising by nearly 60 percent from late 1979 to the end of 1984, and the dollar's exchange rate against major industrial countries exceeded what it had reached before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system.

It is precisely because the sharp appreciation of the US dollar has led to the rapid expansion of the US trade deficit that by 1984, the US current account deficit reached a record $100 billion, which also reached the bottom line that the US government can tolerate.

However, in view of the mishandling of the 1977 incident, the US Government itself did not dare to unilaterally announce the depreciation of its currency, and it is very difficult for the current United States to bear such an economic disaster.

Thinking of this, Jester thought in his mind about what he remembered about the Plaza Agreement in a few months, and then he organized the wording again before he spoke, "Grandpa Sandy, have you ever thought about this matter in a different way?" What if we did not unilaterally announce the depreciation of the dollar, but united with the other countries of the G5 to devalue the dollar in an orderly manner? ”

"Haha!"

Hearing Jester's words, Sandy. Will seemed to have heard the funniest joke in the world, and he looked at Jester with a funny look and said, "Jace, do you know what you just said?" Do you know what that means for other countries? ”

Hear Sandy. Will asked, Jester nodded without thinking, and then said in a conclusive tone: "Grandpa Sandy, of course I know that this is nothing more than to let the United States alleviate its own economic problems, but they have to damage their own interests, after all, the depreciation of the dollar, their exports will inevitably be affected, especially some countries that can only rely on exports." ”

"And then?" Sandy. Will saw that Jester knew why, and he continued to ask, he didn't understand why Jester was able to say the kind he had before, and how these countries could harm their own interests in order to reverse America's economic problems.

After a moment's hesitation, Jester continued: "Actually, Grandpa Sandy, in my opinion, even if these countries do what I said, they may not fundamentally reverse this trade deficit, this manufacturing deficit is caused by our high labor costs, and our economic problems cannot be solved by simple devaluation, the real cause of our economic problems, that is, our crux, is actually our huge and incredible fiscal deficit, I believe, It's definitely not just one person who shares my opinion. ”

Hearing Jester speak, Sandy. Will also fell into deep thought, and didn't speak for a long time, what Jester said before, he also heard some rumors, and recently James. Baker is frequently contacting the finance ministers of several other G5 members for confidential talks, and what they have discussed before is extremely confidential and logically impossible to be known to the outside world, but in the United States, there is nothing that these Wall Street predators cannot do, so some news has also leaked out of it.

The people who can learn about this gossip are all the top executives of the giants on Wall Street. Will did hear about it, too.

What he heard was exactly what Jester had said before, which he thought was funny, that the United States was indeed discussing with several G5 countries a plan to intervene in the foreign exchange market and depreciate the dollar in an orderly manner to save the American economy.

But as Jester said before, now with this huge trade deficit, such a devaluation is simply not going to make up for it, and it can play a very little role, but if you don't do it, you really can't think of any better way, as for getting the federal government to cut their budgets? Hehe, this kind of thing is 10,000 percent impossible to be guò.

So, come to think of it, Sandy. Will looked at Jester with some surprise, he really didn't expect Jester's vision to be able to see so far-reaching, and even some things he didn't see through, Jester could say so surely, so he was more interested in Jester's next words, and he said with some expectation: "Then what do you think this depreciation of the dollar can do?" ”

"Huh."

Jester just chuckled, showing a mouthful of white teeth, and there was a little cold in his smile, but in a flash, he didn't answer the question directly, but gave it to Sandy. Will told a story: "Grandpa Sandy, I don't know if you've ever heard a story about what happens to a sheep's owner when its wool grows. ”

Hearing Jester's words, Sandy. Will's eyes lit up instantly, and he knew what Jester was talking about.

It's sheep shearing. R1152