Chapter 14: The Fish and the Bear's Paw
The so-called leading stocks generally refer to stocks that take the lead in the stock speculation in the same sector and have a large cumulative increase, and have a demonstration and appeal effect on other stocks in the same industry sector.
After the start of the stock market, whether it is a bull market or a round of intermediate rebound, there will always be a few individual stocks as leaders, calling for wind and rain, rising continuously, forming a money-making effect, attracting the attention of stockholders, and finally leading the market index to rise step by step. If you can catch such a leading stock, the income is very considerable.
Of course, if the judgment is wrong, it is not a real leading stock after chasing up, but only a one-day market, then it will be trapped.
Therefore, how to identify the leading stocks is very important, and there is a lot of knowledge.
Ding Xu has several criteria for judging leading stocks: first, leading stocks usually rise against the market at the end of the market decline and when the market is extremely panicked, and bottoms out in advance; Or start before the broader market and withstand a round of decline in the broader market. Second, it is a penny stock with a moderate circulating market capitalization. Because penny stocks have a lot of room to rise, they are easy to be sought after by investors; The circulating market value is moderate, which is suitable for large capital operation and retail investors chasing up and down. As for large-cap and small-cap stocks, they are generally not suitable to play as a leader. Third, we must start the market from the price limit, if the price limit can not be raised, it means that the strength of the dealer is not good, and the subsequent upside is limited.
These are several standards that Ding Xu saw from the Internet, and after studying the trend of individual stocks, it is confirmed that these standards are reliable.
According to these criteria, China Railway Second Bureau is undoubtedly a leading stock. There are more than 700 million shares in circulation, and there are only more than five yuan after the current stock price rises, which is not only a low-priced stock, but also has a circulating market value of more than 3 billion, which is also of moderate size.
In addition, after the second bureau of China Railway bottomed out at 3.6 yuan on September 18, two consecutive daily limits began to start the market, showing the main strength. Since then, despite the weakness of the market, China Railway Second Bureau has quietly walked out of the bottom in advance and began to rise all the way, to the closing price of 5.27 yuan on January 24, which has risen 46% from the lowest price, much stronger than the market.
"The increase of 46% not only proves that China Railway Second Bureau is a leading stock, but also affects the value of buying the bottom. After all, it has risen so much, it is a bit expensive, and it would be good if it had only risen recently and then fallen. Ding Xu thought about it, and was a little undecided for a while, "Should I buy a leading stock like China Railway Second Bureau, or buy other railway stocks that have not risen, and pursue the effect of making up for the rise?" The former is dancing on the tip of a knife, with great risks and great benefits; The latter is somewhat insured, but the benefits are also small. ”
It's the fish and the bear's paw, you can't have it both ways.
In fact, if it is really a fish and a bear's paw, it is a good choice, the problem is that stocks are such a thing, before you buy it, you never know whether it will be cheap fish or expensive bear's paws in the future.
With the attitude of one more choice, Ding Xu focused on a railway infrastructure stock that had just been listed, China South Locomotive.
China South Locomotive was listed on August 18, 2oo8, with a market price of two yuan and one cent and eight cents, the lowest price after listing is three yuan and five cents, and the highest price is four yuan and one cent and four cents. On January 24, the stock price was three yuan and four cents, up only 14% from the lowest price, but it was up more than 5o% compared to the market price, and the current outstanding number is 2.4 billion shares.
CSR has a strong background, and the controlling shareholder is CSR Group Corporation, while the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council holds all the shares of CSR Group Corporation, which is the actual controller. China South Locomotive & Locomotive &
In addition, China South Locomotive has a wide range of business scope, mainly engaged in the research, manufacturing, sales, repair and leasing of railway locomotives, passenger cars, freight cars, EMUs, urban rail subway vehicles and important parts, as well as the extension of rail transit equipment know-how, so to speak, involving all aspects of railway network construction. Although it is not directly called high-speed rail, but called EMU, it undoubtedly represents the future direction of the railway.
In this way, in the construction of the 2 trillion railway network, the strong background and the wide range of business means that China South Locomotive can share a big cake in this railway construction feast.
In addition, by November 18, 2oo8, China South Locomotive will be listed for three months, when 600 million restricted shares will be lifted, and the circulating share capital will be expanded to 3o billion shares.
Ding Xu feels that these major shareholders who are about to lift the ban are likely to choose to rise sharply before the ban is lifted, and with a heavy investment of 2 trillion yuan, China South Locomotive is likely to rise continuously.
The lifting of the ban is less than a month away, which is a good time to do the short and medium term.
However, China Railway Second Bureau, like China South Locomotive, also has a strong background and a wide range of operations, and will surely share a big cake in the 2 trillion railway network investment. At the same time, the Second Bureau of China Railway will lift the ban on more than 500 million shares on December 5, 2oo8, which is only 4o days away, and there is also a requirement to rise sharply before the ban is lifted. Moreover, the current circulating shares of China Railway Second Bureau are only more than 700 million shares, and the circulating market value is more ideal than that of China South Locomotive.
From the perspective of investment rules, you should choose the leading stock of China Railway Second Bureau to gamble; However, from the emotional point of view of retail investors, it is more safe to choose China South Locomotive, which has risen very little, and it is less likely to be covered.
Because he couldn't make a decision for a while, Ding Xu was a little annoyed, so he looked at other plates and muttered: "I don't know which one is a fish and which one is a bear's paw, forget it, it's not bad to buy a cement stock if it doesn't work." ”
After changing his thinking, Ding Xu suddenly became enlightened - although there is a good railway investment of 2 trillion yuan, it is not necessarily necessary to buy the railway infrastructure sector, and infrastructure stocks such as cement and steel are also a good choice. Because the construction of the railway network is definitely inseparable from steel and cement.
Once involved in the construction of the railway network and supplying to railway enterprises, it is easier to see economic benefits, and the performance is improved quickly, and it is also easy to pull up.
Moreover, the investment of 2 trillion yuan in the construction of the railway network is undoubtedly a major move by the country to expand domestic demand, and it is likely that there will be follow-up actions, such as increasing investment in other infrastructure.
No matter what kind of infrastructure is built, cement and steel are a must.
In this way, Ding Xu's horizons expanded again, he studied some steel and cement stocks, and finally selected a few candidate stocks.
After selecting stocks, it was noon, and according to the agreement to ventilate before buying stocks, Ding Xu called Tang Hao and said his thoughts.
Tang Hao listened quietly, scratched his head and said: "You said a bunch of stocks and reasons for stock selection, but I didn't understand it very well on the phone." Now I'll just ask you, which stock did you choose in the end? ”
"It's not finalized yet, so I don't want to ask for your opinion? You are a shareholder after all. Ding Xu said angrily, "Didn't you say that you also know a little bit about stocks, how could you not understand?" ”
"Don't worry, don't worry!" Tang Hao laughed and said, "I contacted a friend from a securities company, he can understand, and let him give us a little advice." ”
"Securities companies? To be honest, I don't trust those analysts very much. Ding Xu frowned, "Some people just listened to the stock recommendations of securities companies, and in the end they lost money." ”
This is a true thing, for example, Ding Xu once saw a stockholder named "Bao Qingtian" in the stock bar to tell her tragic experience, because she trusted the investment adviser of the securities company too much, and always listened to the recommendation of the investment consultant to buy and sell stocks. Later, Bao Qingtian had to go on a long business trip, so he simply handed over the stock account password to the investment consultant to operate, but in less than a month, he lost more than half, which made her want to cry without tears, and then she woke up.
Up to now, Bao Qingtian's original 3o funds in the market have lost only 60,000 yuan in market value, and the loss is as high as 8o%!
"This person is no problem, and he was introduced to a friend I know by our teacher who teaches investment in the Department of Economics." Tang Hao immediately declared.
Ding Xu was relieved, after all, the teacher who taught investment in the Department of Economics must know the securities analysts of some securities companies, and the level should not be much worse. In addition, taking into account the friendship with the teacher, I shouldn't fool myself.
And I have just speculated in stocks, so it is definitely beneficial to listen to more professional advice, as long as I remain vigilant and not be fooled.
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