At the beginning of 2007, the entire world economy was pulled forward by China's crazy head, and the prices of oil, iron ore, natural gas, gold, rubber and other raw materials, as long as Chinese entered, immediately produced a crazy market. Pen ~ fun ~ pavilion www.biquge.info

The most typical is the price of oil, which was $30 per barrel in 2000, has now doubled to $60, and is expected to exceed $100 by the end of the year. Nine times out of ten, large oil tankers sailing on the high seas end up in giant ports off China's coast. China has become the world's factory, where raw materials are being sourced from all over the world and then made into goods through tens of millions of factories of all kinds and sold back to the world. Made in China, with good quality and low price, it has conquered one country and nation after another. You can have countless reasons to hate China, but you can't resist the lure of goods from China.

The Hsieh consortium, which is far away in Thailand, has suffered a great loss since the failure of the last sneak attack on the Wang family, and has gradually returned to its previous state with the help of the global economic improvement in recent years. Since this battle, the Wang family and the Xie family have turned against each other, and the two sides have formed an indissoluble enmity.

If you don't die, you will be bitten back, although the Xie consortium did not retaliate against the Wang family and the Jiangnan Group, Qin Ran has not relaxed his surveillance of them. According to Guan Xin's report, the Xie family now seems to be ready to move.

Global resource prices are soaring, and Qin Ran smells a breath of economic crisis. As long as China's economy comes to a slight halt, the mad cow will flip the roof of the car that has been pulling wildly, and then the economic crisis that has swept the world will come.

Therefore, Qin Ran decided to start a bureau that had been prepared a long time ago, so that the Xie family could taste some sweetness first, and then take a salary draw from the bottom of the kettle when the economic crisis came. This situation is also very simple, that is, taking advantage of the overheating of the global economy, through a third-party company to add large orders to the companies under the Xie consortium, fooling them into increasing investment and expanding the scale of supply, and then canceling the order in the name of bankruptcy when the economic crisis comes, so that the Xie family is in a deep crisis. Then he fell into the stock market, united with creditors to force debts, and collapsed the Xie industry.

Of course, in this game, the members of the Wang family who are far away in Indonesia will also be calculated, who let them unite with outsiders to plan to annex the Yinguang Group before? Yinguang Group is the industry that his precious son will inherit in the future.

In addition, there will be special financial professionals who are particularly attentive to promote to the Xie family and the Wang family an innovative financial product launched by an investment bank that is destined to go bankrupt in the financial crisis, and encourage them to shift the focus of their family's financial asset allocation to these products, and they will get a very satisfactory remuneration for at least 07 years.

It is expected that the economic crisis is coming, Qin Ran must also step on the brakes of Jiangnan Group, except for the projects that have signed agreements, the group will focus on digestion, and try to withdraw funds to prepare for the winter.

After every crisis, Jiangnan Group will be the first to wake up and step on the corpses of its peers to double their size. A crisis is an opportunity, but you have to avoid it to usher in an opportunity, and unfortunately many people fall into a crisis.

Before the crisis arrives, there will always be a final madness, whether it is A shares or H shares, they have ushered in a big bull market. When the leeks grow taller, they will usher in the harvest season, at least the description of A shares is quite appropriate.

The price of "Jiangnan Real Estate", which was listed on H-shares in 2003, has risen from 22.6 yuan to 60.7 yuan, and the backdoor "Jiangnan Commercial" of A-shares in 2004 has risen from 15.5 yuan to 35.7 yuan. As a leading domestic real estate company, Jiangnan Group's two stocks have been recognized by many new investors.

Taking advantage of the high stock price, Qin Ran began to cash out the stocks under his name gradually, and the major shareholders still couldn't resist the surging new shareholders who rushed in to take over, and Qin Ran had nearly 36 billion more cash assets just by cashing out the stocks, but he still maintained the status of the controlling shareholder. It can be said that Qin Ran only sold all his assets at the mountainside stage of the bull market, and he did not wait until the top of the mountain to sell, because no one in the stock market knows when the wave top will be. But Qin Ran knew that the thick stupid bear had already followed the mad bull and was about to move, and his appearance was just around the corner.

Huang Zhang feels that he is a little lucky to be able to enter the long-awaited work in the news department of Inspur.com in the fierce competition. After graduating from university, he joined a well-known financial newspaper in China, and resigned after a year. Later, I went to a local TV station, and I always felt that the constraints in the system were not suitable for me, so I finally jumped out and entered the inspur network. Huang Zhang is a natural conspiracy theory proponent, and he likes to plot things that are difficult for ordinary people to notice. After coming to Inspur.com, the Internet gave him a platform to show his strength, and several special reports he organized and planned were warmly responded to by netizens, and won the nickname of "weasel".

This "weasel" title is good and bad, the good is to achieve the goal, Huang Zhang is as patient and clever as a weasel catching a chicken, and he does not let go when he sees the goal. The bad thing is that he always likes to release all kinds of smoke bombs and manipulate public opinion, just like a weasel loves to fart to cover his true purpose.

Qin Ran opened the homepage of Inspur.com and saw a special title called "Who has the final say in housing prices".

Click in and take a look, the editor-in-chief is Brother Wolf, which is Huang Zhang's pen name.

"Nowadays, the rising housing prices are making the majority of the working class miserable, and everyone is angry with the developers, believing that the majority of developers have caused the housing prices to rise wildly. But let's take a look at a real project cost sheet provided by an anonymous informant to analyze what the components of high housing prices are.

……

As can be seen from this line of figures, the money collected by the government directly or indirectly accounts for 60% of the house price, the developer's various costs are 25%, the other 5% is the provision of unpredictable expenses, and the remaining 10% is the developer's profit. Here we see that the government plays a very key role in high housing prices, and developers are more like accomplices, as well as the party behind the blame.

……

Let's look at another set of data, which is the fiscal revenue status of a certain city. In 2006, the city achieved a total of 63.72 billion yuan in fiscal revenue, an increase of 25.4 percent over 2005, of which 38.26 billion yuan came from land transfer. In other words, in 2006, the city's main source of income was land finance, accounting for 60%. In some ways, there is some truth to the claim that real estate has kidnapped the government. ”

As the boss of China's largest developer, Qin Ran seems to have some truth in acknowledging what he said in this article. The government did derive a lot of wealth from the new agrarian revolution in real estate, but much of this wealth was spent on public infrastructure, the necessary spending to ensure people's livelihood, and the orderly functioning of the government. Britain has rapidly achieved industrialization and modernization through the sheep cannibalism movement, the United States has rapidly achieved industrialization and modernization through the exploitation of overseas colonies, and now China is going to change from an agricultural country to an industrial power. It is a strategic development issue for a country to realize urbanization and modernization by sacrificing one or two generations and overdrawing future savings in advance.

But after all, there is a tipping point in the development of real estate, and if the whole country continues to blindly launch real estate projects on a large scale regardless of the consequences, sooner or later there will be a bubble collapse. Therefore, this requires the wisdom and courage of the central government to flexibly implement regulation. There is no doubt that the Chinese government has one of the most administrative powers in the world. It is completely possible to make a firm determination to control housing prices from rising, but this will have to risk a hard landing of the entire economy when the economic situation is cold. As China's economy is still growing at a rapid pace and urbanization and modernization has not yet been completed, the central government will not choose this plan that hurts others and hurts itself.

Another key factor driving the rapid rise in housing prices is that China's money supply has been increasing, from 12 trillion yuan at the beginning of 2000 to more than 40 trillion yuan at the end of 2007. The people have huge savings in their hands, and inflation in disguise is the simplest analogy that the purchasing power of 40 yuan in 2007 is only equivalent to 12 yuan in 2000. Of course, this is an extreme metaphor, but one of the reasons why people feel that money is worthless over the years. The stock market has been sluggish, the state has strict restrictions on foreign investment, and investment and entrepreneurship are too far away from the world of many ordinary people, so buying real estate has become people's first choice. Chinese are not as fond of advanced consumption as Western developed countries, and have always been in line with the concept of saving money and saving money, so they pay more attention to capital preservation and financial management in asset investment. In addition, the process of urbanization has brought a lot of demand, real estate can be seen and touched, and rising housing prices are stable investment channels.

For example, in 2000, the house price in Jiangzhou was 4,000 yuan per square meter, and now in 2007, the average price has exceeded 10,000 yuan, an increase of nearly 250%, and the compound annual growth rate has reached more than 15%. Compared with the high interest rate of 4.75% on fixed bank deposits, investing in a house is much better than saving.

Why does the foreign general leasing ratio coefficient not work on China's real estate market, the bubble has been shouted for many years, but housing prices are still rising. Because housing in China is not only an economic issue, but also a social issue, but also a political issue.

Will house prices keep rising?

The collapse of the real estate bubble in Japan in 1990 and Hong Kong in 1997 proved that there will always be moments of self-regulation. As for when China will go through this stage, under the general trend of economic globalization, I am afraid that only God knows.

The ass decides the head, Qin Ran thought to himself that if he was a newcomer who had not bought a house, he would definitely hope that the government would be able to control the housing prices; But if he has a house and enjoys the benefits of house appreciation, he must hope that the house price will rise and the asset will increase. Coupled with the special role of real estate in the national economy, the major interest strata of society are in the game on the issue of housing prices, and the price of housing prices can be said for a few days and nights.

High housing prices will bring about a city's threshold problem, the earlier the people who enter, the more they enjoy the dividends, the later the people will face the increasing urban threshold, virtually high housing prices play a role in regulating the population. The class was solidified, and Qin Ran couldn't help but have this idea. If a young person cannot afford to buy a house in a big city after working hard all his life, then the city will lose its vitality, and the whole society will have no channel for the upper and lower classes to flow, and there will inevitably be an outbreak of contradictions.

To avoid this problem, it is necessary for the state to make reasonable regional planning, disperse the resources concentrated in large cities to the surrounding small and medium-sized cities, and guide the harmonious and orderly development of urban agglomerations, which requires the rulers to have a long-term vision and great wisdom.

Pick up the bowl to eat, put down the chopsticks and scold the mother, no matter how angry a person is, he has to admit that China has developed rapidly in recent years, and real good changes have taken place around him. An authoritative and interesting statistic illustrates this point: in 1990 the United Nations identified 1.9 billion people living in extreme poverty, the vast majority of whom were located in the world's two largest countries, China and India, as well as in South Africa. By 2007, that number had risen to 1.4 billion, and China had contributed the vast majority of the 500 million people living in poverty, making a total of 360 million people out of poverty. In short, China has eliminated 70% of the world's poor people through its 17 years of efforts.

From two-wheeled bicycles to four-wheeled cars, from crackling abacus to dripping computers, from thatched houses with ventilation everywhere to reinforced concrete buildings, the Chinese have broken into the world's handsome and rich circles by virtue of their own struggle and efforts. Another interesting example is the invasion of China by the Eight-Nation Alliance, which brought shame to the Chinese people a hundred years ago, and a hundred years ago they represented the most powerful country in the world, and used their strength to grab colonies everywhere. One hundred years later, seven of the Eight-Nation Coalition are still the most developed countries in the world, with the only one left behind being Austria-Hungary, which was defeated and dismembered in World War I. Who replaced Austria-Hungary in this Eight-Nation Alliance? Undoubtedly, it is the sleeping dragon of the East - China.

Able to resist the United Nations coalition led by the United States on the Korean battlefield, dare to say no to the big brother Soviet Union without saying a word, with the help of reform and opening up, with the help of globalization, the rapid completion of industrialization, modernization and urbanization, the total national GDP has caught up with the eight-nation coalition all the way to catch up with the global hegemon United States, except for China, which other country dares to sit in this position.

Qin Ran felt surging that he could witness such a turbulent era, although he was now a foreign national, he still considered himself a pure descendant of Yan and Huang, a patriotic capitalist with a conscience. As a real estate tycoon, he admits that he has made a fortune with the help of China's New Agrarian Revolution. But he thinks that this wealth will be much better in his own hands than the nouveau riche who are drunk and squandering everywhere. If an entrepreneur has wealth and no responsibility, and if he has capital but no morality, he is not worthy of people's respect. Only by combining wealth and social responsibility, taking it from the society and using it for the society, can we gain strength and respect. Whether it is donating to support education, or funding top scientific research, or a venture capital fund to realize the entrepreneurial dreams of the majority of young people, Qin Ran spends a large amount of money every year from his personal wealth.

With enough bait, the Xie family's big fish finally took the bait, after all, the high returns in the financial industry are not something that anyone can rationally refuse. (To be continued.) )