Ding Xu's words are naturally targeted.

Some time ago, Ba Gu repeatedly stated his point in the group - according to the wave theory, the stock market is now in the seventh wave of nine waves of decline, followed by an eighth wave of rebound and a ninth wave of decline. The last bull market started at 998 points, and from a technical point of view, the ninth wave is likely to fall below 998 points, and it will not break or stand.

In addition, the pressure of non-reduction is extremely large, and the financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is sweeping the world, and the financial pressure on the stock market and the downward pressure on the economy are much greater than when the bull market started in 2oo5, so the end of the ninth wave this time will definitely fall below the starting point of the previous round of bull market, that is, below 998 points.

There is a saying in the stock market that how you go up is how you go down. The section from 6124 points down to 18o2 points is strikingly similar to the trend from 18oo points to 6124 points, except that the direction is one down and one up. Judging from the symmetry of the trend, a fall below 998 points in the future is also a high probability event.

In short, only by falling below 998 points can this round of bear market end.

This passage of gossip is based not only on the technical wave theory, but also on the basis of fundamental factors such as the financial crisis.

Because this conclusion of gossip is very confusing and representative, and it also has a certain degree of persuasiveness, Ding Xu specially wrote an article and uploaded it to the group article, entitled "Will the market fall below 998 points - discuss with gossip classmates".

The focus of this article is where the bottom of the market is, which is actually what Ding Xu and Qi Fei argued many times when they decided to buy the bottom. Qi Fei's initial views were similar to gossip, and he also thought that the market might fall below the 1,000-point mark again, but later Ding Xu argued with reason and finally persuaded Qi Fei, so that Qi Fei finally agreed to buy the bottom, and then bought China Railway Second Bureau and Tongli Cement.

In this article, Ding Xu summarized the analysis content when he decided to buy the bottom, and refuted the gossip point of view from two aspects:

First, from a technical point of view, the conclusion reached by Bagua using the wave theory is not reliable.

Wave theory is not as easy to grasp as other technical theories. Whether it is for the market or individual stocks, different wave theory fans have different methods of counting waves, the analysis mode and rules are not authoritative and unified, big waves, small waves, micro waves, sub-waves, stretching waves, waves in waves, five waves and nine waves, there are many sayings, which often make people confused.

The same market trend, the same stock, different wave theory fans have different interpretations, and the arbitrariness is relatively large. For example, if the market continues to rise after the five rising waves, it may merge the previous two rising waves into one wave, and then count them; It is also possible to say that this is a nine-wave pattern, and the new rising wave is counted as the seventh wave.

In short, the arbitrariness of the number of waves, the results of which often vary greatly, and even the authorities of wave theory often fail to agree, which is especially evident in unfinished uptrend or downtrend forecasts...... In short, it seems that in response to that sentence, there are a thousand Hamlets in the eyes of a thousand people.

Even the gossip once admitted in the group: "The wave theory is a murderous weapon and a suicide weapon!" ”

The meaning of this sentence is that the bookmaker will cleverly use the wave theory to deceive people, and the retail investor will use the wave theory to chase the rise and kill the fall, and trap themselves.

Since this theory does not have enough authoritative interpretation, and it is difficult to reach a consensus, it is not as effective as other technical indicators, so Ding Xu has always avoided the wave theory, for fear that he will learn this theory in a fog, and finally he will not be proficient in learning, which will affect his correct judgment.

In fact, when the Shanghai Composite Index began to fall from 6124 points, a well-known wave theorist began to count the three major waves of decline. When the number reached 4195 points, the expert believed that the big C wave decline had ended, and a new round of eight-wave rise would begin. As a result, the market continued to fall sharply after rebounding, until it fell to 299o points, and the expert changed his tune, saying that this was a continuation of the previous big C wave decline. When the market rebounded to 3786 points and then fell again, the expert also felt that this big C wave was too long, so he quickly changed his tune and said that he should use a nine-wave decline to count the waves......

It can be seen that before the end of the trend is determined, the wave counting method of wave theory is too arbitrary, and even it is difficult to reach a consensus even among authoritative wave theory experts.

Because of this, Ding Xu does not agree with the conclusion reached by Bagua based on the wave theory, nor does he think that it is now the seventh wave.

In fact, after discussing with the gossip, Ding Xu also tried to learn some common sense of wave theory, and now he can see the current wave of decline as the ninth and last wave.

Second, from the fundamental analysis, the current market, compared to 998 points has been completely different, after 2oo5-2oo7 years of the three-year bull market expansion, A-shares have increased a lot of large-scale listed companies, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, China Taibao, China Shenhua, PetroChina and other giant companies, only 2oo7 A-share IPO scale of more than 1o billion shares of the company reached 13.

Since then, China's stock market has rapidly upgraded from an obscure "pond" to a "deep-water port" that can accommodate aircraft carriers, and its market capitalization has surpassed that of Japan, rising to the first place in Asia and becoming the third largest capital market in the world.

As a result, the market capitalization of A-shares has increased dramatically, and the way the index is calculated has changed significantly. And if A-shares fall to 998 points again in 2oo8, it will be far more tragic than 998 points in 2oo5, and the A-share market will inevitably collapse! In this way, the government will inevitably not be able to sit idly by, otherwise it will not be intensively investigated and introduced so many benefits near 18oo points, which shows that the government highly agrees that the vicinity of 18o2 points is the bottom of the decline, that is, the bottom of the policy.

And now, the market has once again broken through the policy bottom of 18o2 points and suppressed it to 1664 points, which should be the final market bottom.

At the same time, the basis of the last round of bull market is share reform, which has indeed caused huge pressure to reduce holdings after the end of the bull market, such as the total number of reductions from 2oo7 to 2o1o is 24 trillion, which is equal to the total market value of the two A-share cities at the peak of the market in 2oo7, and the total amount of residents' savings deposits in 2oo7 years is equal to 140 million A-share accounts to undertake and digest 170,000 yuan per capita......

However, it is precisely because the pressure to reduce holdings is so huge that it is impossible for these listed companies to complete their holdings in the big bear market where the market value is shrinking and basically no one takes over, and they need a new round of bull market to ship, at least a round of local small bull market. If the market falls below 998 points again, these shareholding reduction plans will not be completed at all, which is obviously not in the interests of listed companies.

In addition, Ding Xu admitted that the financial crisis mentioned by gossip is indeed relatively strict. Especially since September 2oo8, the global financial crisis is rapidly fermenting and spreading deeply, and China has also been hit more severely.

For example, dragged down by factors such as the soaring price of raw materials in the first half of the year, the sharp decline in demand for export products due to the global economic recession, the sharp decline in investment income or even large losses, and the sharp decline in product prices, the sharp decline in the performance of some listed companies in China has become a reality.

Judging from the current three quarterly reports, the performance of 13 papermaking companies in the third quarter fell by nearly half of the month, the performance growth rate of the automobile industry fell sharply, and the decline in non-ferrous metal prices made the performance of related enterprises drop sharply; At the same time, the double whammy of high oil prices and slowing demand, combined with lower foreign exchange gains, has also caused the aviation industry to face significant losses......

Obviously, in the context of the global economic recession, the performance of listed companies will inevitably decline, which will inevitably affect the company's valuation and ultimately reflect in the stock price fluctuations.

But Ding Xu believes that this round of financial crisis will not last too long, because the root cause of this financial crisis is only the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, not a global economic recession, and the impact on China will not be very large, and the impact time is limited.

Moreover, the United States is taking some steps to address the subprime mortgage crisis, Europe and Asia are also taking measures in June, and the global economy is trying to get out of the brink of recession.

Ding Xu firmly believes that in the face of a global economic recession, China will not sit idly by and will definitely take corresponding economic stimulus measures. The $2 trillion railway investment is just the first step, and there will be more economic stimulus measures to follow.

Even though most of the 2 trillion yuan is the cumulative amount approved in previous years, there are nearly 800 billion new quotas, reflecting the central government's attitude towards economic stimulus. This is exactly the positive that he has been looking forward to, and it is also a signal for him to enter the market to buy the bottom, so he will start to buy China Railway Second Bureau and Tongli Cement......

Because their respective views are supported by a set of theoretical systems, and both sides are very confident people, as in the past, in today's debate, Ding Xu and Gossip are not convinced.

The two first argued about the wave theory, then about whether the Chinese government would introduce more economic stimulus measures, and at the end of the argument, the gossip came to a conclusion: "Miracle, I think you're a little narcissistic." You say that China will continue to engage in economic stimulus measures, will the central government really do it? Yes, the Chinese people have this voice, but there are some things that are not transferred by the will of the common people! Do you know how dangerous it is to be an early bird and engage in economic stimulus? You should check out my teacher's blog to see what elite academics think about this! ”

Ding Xu shook his head helplessly and smiled bitterly, experts and scholars can't argue clearly about whether China should engage in economic stimulus, how can he and gossip argue clearly?

As for the issue of narcissism, I'm afraid that the real narcissism should be gossip.

Gossip often shows off how famous and influential several of his teachers are in China, but on the night he was drunk, Ding Xu also found out a secret, Gossip just paid a few thousand yuan to listen to a public lecture by these teachers, and since then he has been commensurate with teachers and students.

Listening to a paid stock trading lecture is considered a teacher and student, which is really called narcissism.

Of course, there is no point in arguing about the details of this time, and the battle of will is not important, the important thing is to judge accurately and make money, so Ding Xu is also willing to argue with gossip, in order to get inspiration and inspiration from him and further improve his judgment ability.

At this point in the debate, Ding Xu sorted out his thoughts and came to his final conclusion: "Judging from the information collected on the Internet, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Commerce, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and the State Reform Commission ...... China's major ministries and commissions have been busy recently, either urgently conducting research or frequently coming forward to make statements, showing that they are actively preparing to introduce measures to stimulate domestic demand and maintain economic growth. The last 18o2 low was the policy bottom, which has been broken. However, the stock market management has been strangely silent since the National Day, which is absolutely abnormal, and there will be big moves in the future. Therefore, I still adhere to the previous view, 1664 points is the bottom of the market, the time has come to buy the bottom, and the reversal is about to begin! Everyone must be steady, don't cut meat indiscriminately! ”

"The market will prove you wrong, and buying the bottom at this time is equivalent to suicide!" The gossip also made a conclusion.

"Then let the market trend testify." Ding Xu replied.

The controversy was then settled.

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