"I'm not qualified to take the class, I'm just going to discuss it with you." Ding Xu glanced at Tang Hao helplessly, and said with a smile, "Don't play this game with me, I have a few catties and taels myself, and I still know it in my heart." ”

"Come on, don't talk about these things, you two don't talk about this, hurry up and talk about China Unicom, it's about to open, if it opens, it will rise in a straight line, and if you want to chase it, you won't have a chance." Yang Kui said a little anxiously.

"What's the hurry? Aren't we all full? And there is no money left. Ding Xu reluctantly pressed F1O, began to check the information of China Unicom, and said while checking, "China Unicom's stock, the market price listed in 2oo2 is 2.3O yuan, and the closing price this morning is 5.2O yuan, which is only more than 8 yuan after the weighting method, that is to say, it has risen a little more than twice in more than six years." And its performance is still in the growth period, with double-digit steady growth every year, and now this price is really not high. ”

"Doesn't that just mean that it's the kind of safe stock you said, with good performance, good growth, and small historical gains, isn't it just right to invest?" Yang Kui asked suspiciously.

"Theoretically, that's true." Ding Xu smiled bitterly and said.

"Theoretically?" Yang Kui subconsciously repeated, "Why is it just theoretical? ”

"Let me ask you first, what is a stock?" Ding Xu smiled and asked rhetorically.

"This, uh......" Yang Kui opened his mouth, but he couldn't answer, and his face turned red after a while, and he replied in a whisper, "I really haven't thought about this carefully, anyway, I watched everyone buy it, and said that this thing can make money, so I followed and bought it." ”

"I've been speculating on stocks for so long. I don't even know what stocks are. Dare to fry? Tang Hao gloated and replied, "No wonder you lost so badly!" ”

"Fatty. So tell me, what is a stock? Ding Xu looked at Tang Hao with a smile.

"It's so easy! Don't forget, I'm a professional. Tang Hao opened his mouth and replied quickly, "Stock is the ownership certificate of the joint-stock company, and it is a kind of securities that the joint-stock company gives to various shareholders in order to raise funds, as a certificate of shareholding and to obtain dividends and bonuses. Each share represents a shareholder's ownership of a basic unit of the business. Behind every stock is a publicly traded company. In other words, every publicly traded company will trade stocks. ”

"I'm not asking you to memorize concepts. I just want you to use the simplest sentence to tell me what is the stock in your heart? Ding Xu waved his hand and asked.

"It's a kind of proof that I am a shareholder of a listed company." Tang Hao reacted quickly, and immediately compressed the long concept just now to the shortest point.

"Yes, a stock is a certificate. Although on the computer, the number of shares held is only reflected in a string of numbers, but with this string of numbers, you can go to dividends and go to the shareholders' meeting. However, the dividends of listed companies are generally very small, a stock of dozens of yuan. A year's dividends may only be one dollar, relying on dividends alone. It may take you decades to earn back your investment, not to mention those iron roosters who haven't been red once in five or six years, and they may never be able to recoup their capital by relying on dividends, and value investing has become empty talk. ”

Ding Xu shook his head and said, "If you buy a cup, at least you can hold a cup in your hand." But what about stocks? It's just a number, one hand, one hundred, ten thousand hands, why is it worth it for you to use tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or even tens of millions to buy a virtual number? Especially if you are not sure that dividends will give you a certain return on investment! ”

"This ......" Tang Hao was confused by this question, scratched his head, and complained in a tangled manner, "It's just for you to analyze a stock, how did you learn from Mr. Du's set, and fix these mysterious and mysterious things!" ”

"This is called top-level design, and only by figuring out what the meaning of stocks is to shareholders can we grasp the essence of stock speculation." Ding Xu said seriously, "Stock is actually a kind of virtual capital, independent of physical capital. The value of a stock is not primarily reflected in the past, but in the expectation of the future, including the leap forward in future performance. That's why concept stocks and restructuring stocks are always so popular. ”

"What the hell are you trying to say?" Tang Hao was even more entangled, "Then you say, what is a stock?" I believe that many old shareholders have not seriously thought about this issue. In addition to the concepts in the books, everyone's understanding may be different. ”

"Don't worry, listen to me slowly." Ding Xu explained, "I also told Yang Kui just now, in my eyes, stocks are a pot of melon seeds in the hands of the main force, and they are a tool used to make money." In other words, the melon seeds themselves are not what the main force wants, buy raw melon seeds at a low price, and sell the fried melon seeds at a high price to earn the difference. Therefore, this difference is what the main force wants. ”

"This analogy is very vivid, the main force earns money, not the melon seeds themselves, I agree. You continue. Tang Hao nodded and said.

Therefore, no matter how good the performance of listed companies is, no matter how good they are, the main force is just using these benefits and performance growth to make money. Or a stock has risen for several years in a row, to be a kind Changzhuang, but this kindness is just a fake, when it comes to shipping, the main force will change its face, and when it comes to shipping, it is more ruthless than anyone smashing the plate, and the quilt is a retail investor after all. ”

Ding Xu explained, "A stock, maybe its performance is very good, the price-earnings ratio is very low, like some bank stocks. Its annual performance growth is very stable, at 1o%. But because of this, it is difficult to increase the performance significantly, but the shareholders are very optimistic about its price-earnings ratio, so they are reluctant to sell, let alone cut the meat, and it is very difficult for the main force to collect chips. In addition, the plate is also large, so the main force does not like to speculate on this kind of stock. And China Unicom is also such a stock. ”

"Finally got to the point." Yang Kui suddenly perked up and asked, "What's wrong with China Unicom?" ”

"China Unicom's performance is good, the stock price is low, and the historical increase is not large, but even in the bull market in 2oo7, the increase is not large, only a few times, far less than some theme stocks and junk stocks." Ding Xu opened the "main tracking" column, pointed to the number of shareholders over the years and said, "You see, starting from the first quarter of 2oo3, the number of shareholders is 560,000, and the average number of shares held by households is 24,962 shares, and by the end of 2oo5, the number of shareholders is 570,000, and the average number of shares held by households is 36,631 shares. ”

"That's true." Tang Hao nodded and said.

Later, at the end of the third quarter of 2oo6, the average shareholding of households finally rose further to 39,87 shares, and the number of shareholders also decreased to 540,000, and the stock price finally rose sharply during this period. But then as the bull market peaked, the number of shareholders rose sharply, from 540,000 to 610,000, 750,000, 950,000, and finally peaked in the second quarter of 2oo8, 1.58 million people, and the average shareholding of households also dropped from 39,87 shares at the peak to 13,343 shares. ”

Ding Xu pointed to the computer screen and said, "In the third quarter of 2oo8, the average shareholding of households rebounded slightly, rising to 1449o shares, but compared with the second quarter, the rise was very limited. It shows that at this time, retail investors are optimistic about China Unicom's performance and future, and are reluctant to sell, so although the main force tries to re-collect chips, the effect is not obvious. Now the annual report has not come out, I can't see the chip collection in the fourth quarter, but China Unicom's share price has been very weak, even if there is a 3G concept stimulus, the stock price has not risen much, with the lowest point of 3.95 yuan, only less than 3o% increase, and it is pulled up and then down, and then up and down, the wave is obvious, at this time the main force should enter the market, but it is still repeatedly pulling up and suppressing in order to collect chips. This stage of collecting chips will not end, and the main force will not rise significantly. ”

"Maybe the fourth quarter of last year was almost all collected?" Yang Kui asked, "It's just that the annual report hasn't come out yet, so we can't see the number yet." ”

That's a good question. However, if you look at how slow the concentration of chips has been in history, you can guess that China Unicom's chip collection will be a long process, and the main force is also very patient, and will slowly collect at the bottom, and the possibility of pulling up and opening a position is relatively small. ”

Ding Xu clicked on the "chip" in the lower right corner again, opened the cost distribution column, and while moving the mouse on the K-line chart, he pointed to the ever-changing dense chip area in the upper right and said, "In addition, you can see from here that the current stock price is near five yuan, but not far from the top, near six yuan, there are a large number of hedge plates, like a mountain, pressing on the current stock price, if you want to break through this dense hedge plate area, you need to use a lot of money." Moreover, there are also a lot of hedging chips in the upper 6-13 yuan area, and in the process of the main force pulling up, once these hedged disks are untied, retail investors will sell, and the main force will be forced to use larger funds. So generally speaking, if you don't wash these traps, the main force will not rise significantly. ”

"I see." Yang Kui suddenly realized, "No wonder some of the main forces pull up, often have to wait until the stock has a big bearish, retail investors are not optimistic, all cut the meat, there is no hedge plate above, will suddenly rise sharply, catch retail investors off guard." ”

"That's right, that's why there is a strange phenomenon of rising as soon as you throw it. Because it is often in the face of big bearishness, retail investors will concentrate on selling. Ding Xu nodded and said. (To be continued......)

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