"Purple Moon said well, what is more important than wealth is the method and mentality of obtaining wealth. ± the top novel, www.In the days when there are no stocks, we will spend the New Year well, spend time with our families, read well, study hard, and prepare mentally for the bull market that has come to us! Hearing Ziyue's words, Ding Xu said with emotion, "Today is the third day of the first lunar month, the third day of the Year of the Ox, the rat goes to the ox, and there is a bull market in the Year of the Ox!" ”

"That's right, the sneaky little mouse has been drilled into the mouse hole, the diligent old scalper has finally reappeared on the stage of history, and a new world is about to begin!" Redemption said excitedly, "I always believe in miracles, there will be a wave of small bulls in the Year of the Ox, let's go to prosperity and financial freedom together!" ”

"Yes, yes, everybody's very well said. Wishing a miracle and all of you a great and prosperous Year of the Ox! I also wish myself another level, good luck in the Year of the Ox, and make more money! Hongniu also said happily.

Next, the miracle group was filled with enthusiastic New Year's wishes.

However, Ding Xu turned off the chat interface of the miracle group and began to chat with Ziyue privately: "I heard that you are a futures master?" ”

"I don't dare to be, I just used to do some crude oil and foreign exchange, and recently I started to use a small amount of money to do domestic commodity futures." After a long while, Ziyue replied with some vigilance, "Why don't you talk openly in the group?" I almost didn't see your private chat. ”

"I don't dare to talk about futures in the group, because I heard that futures are very dangerous, and if you don't do it well, you will blow up, and like you said, you will become penniless overnight. Of course, because there is ten times leverage, once you do it right. Making money is also very fast. Earn 30% or even 100% a day. I'm worried. In case we talk about futures in the group and get everyone excited, only see the opportunity to make money, and blindly speculate in futures, it will be very dangerous. Ding Xu explained, "Since the leverage ratio is so large, futures should be for more professional investors, and many people in our group don't even know how to speculate on stocks." How can you speculate in futures? ”

"Well, you're right, that's true." Purple Moon replied, "So I don't usually talk about futures in the group, and occasionally I talk about it, and I try to remind of the risks." If the A-share market is a money-burning machine in a bear market, then it can be compared like this, the commodity futures market, whether it is a bull market or a bear market, is the most cruel and dangerous meat grinder! ”

"How so? I just wanted to learn a little bit about the futures market. Take a look at what shorting is all about. Ding Xu hurriedly asked, "You also know." Recently, the senior management has been saying that we will launch margin trading and stock index futures business in a timely manner, and I want to prepare for shorting stocks and stock index futures in the bear market in the future, so that I can make money in both bull and bear markets. ”

"Your idea is very good, and many retail investors have this idea, and they are also looking forward to the launch of margin and stock index futures business. But I'm not polite to say that the ideal is very plump, and the reality is very skinny. The end result is likely to be that if they rush into this unfamiliar territory, they will lose even worse than in a bear market. Because even if you look at the general direction of the bear market correctly and insist on shorting, if the margin is not sufficient, and if there is an error in the swing operation, the liquidation is also a matter of minutes. ”

Ziyue shook her head and sighed, "Because even if you see that this is a bear market, the general direction of shorting is right, but a 10% rebound, because of the addition of ten times leverage, is a 100% loss for you, and liquidation is a normal thing." The rebound in the bear market often comes very suddenly, fast and fierce, 10% is a matter of a few days, when you are reluctant to stop the loss, often at first it is a finger, then a wrist, then the whole arm, and finally the whole person is engulfed by this reverse fluctuation. So I summed up five words, futures are fiercer than tigers! ”

Ding Xu was shocked by this image metaphor, and nodded after a long time: "Thank you, I was taught!" ”

"You're welcome, I've been in the futures market for so many years, so I have this experience, and I know the dangers of the futures market. It's an adventurer's paradise and an adventurer's grave! Therefore, I generally don't build yì retail investors to play futures. Of course, you are different, your judgment of the market is very accurate, and the mentality of stock speculation is also very mature, and you also have the ability to control risks. In addition, your learning ability is very strong, after the launch of stock index futures, you can try to do it with a small amount of money, and you may lose money or even liquidate your position in the early stage, but it doesn't matter, just pay tuition. As long as you are familiar with it, and after summing up the lessons of success and failure, you can invest a lot of money in it. I'm sure you're not like everyone else and you'll be one of the few winners. ”

"Win the prize, learn from you." Ding Xu said with a smile.

"Win the prize, learn from you." Purple Moon returned the words in a low-key manner, "As for the commodity futures market, the same is true, you can do it now." ”

The two laughed for a while before they began to talk about the futures market in earnest.

June 10, 1991, Deep. The Shenzhen Nonferrous Metals Futures Exchange was established, and on September 28 of the same year, it launched China's first commodity futures standard contract - premium aluminum futures contract, which marked the formal establishment of China's futures market.

May 1992, above. The Sea Metal Exchange was established and the No. 1 Copper Standardized Futures Contract was launched in March 1993.

Another historically significant event in the history of China's futures was in September 1992, when the first futures brokerage company, Guang. Dongwantong Futures Brokerage Company was established. In 1993~1994, the futures market developed blindly, and in 1994, the futures industry began to clean up and rectify. In December 2000, the China Futures Association was formally established, and for the first time, the futures industry had its own formal industry self-regulatory organization, marking the initial formation of the "three-level" supervision and management system of China's futures market, and the futures market began to move towards a more standardized development path.

As for the stock index futures, they have not been officially listed so far, and once they are launched in the past two years, as the official said, it marks the official launch of China's financial futures, which is of great significance. This is also the main variety that Ding Xu wants to know about making money in the bear market in the future.

As for the first precious metal futures variety in China, gold futures, it was officially launched on January 9, 2008. Listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, this is also the futures variety that Purple Moon is focusing on now.

According to Purple Moon. General commodity futures. It is a margin method. Generally, it is about 10 times leverage. That is to say, if you buy 100,000 yuan of futures, you are actually buying 1 million yuan of futures, but you only need to pay 10% of the margin to do it, so it is ten times leverage.

In this highly leveraged trading mode, if the corresponding futures variety rises by 1%, you will earn 10%. If it goes up 5%, you make 50%. If a wave of rebound can reach a height of 50%. Then congratulations, you're netting five times!

Conversely, if it falls by 1%, you lose 10%. If it falls by 10%, you lose 100%, and unless you have enough margin, you will definitely blow up. And if it falls by 20%, no one will be immune unless you use most of your funds as margin and only invest a small part of your cash in futures.

Therefore. Doing futures is a risky thing to do. No matter how the stock falls, even if it falls from a peak of 6,124 points in 2007 to a low of 1,664 points. Even if the market value of your stock has shrunk by four-fifths, or even nine-tenths, as long as you don't cut your meat, your chips are still there, and your positions are still there, it is possible to untie and even make money in the bull market in the following years.

But futures are different, it is highly leveraged, so it is accompanied by high risk and high return, and it is basically intraday trading, doing five-minute or even one-minute level swings. Many masters will not hold positions overnight, because in case of a good or bearish situation, there is a large gap high or low opening, or even a limit or a limit, those who are long and short are prone to sudden huge losses once they are in the opposite direction of the market, or even directly liquidate!

…………………… Dividing line ..............................

(Because I want to prepare for the future bear market and make money, I used a small amount of money to do commodity futures and stock index futures some time ago, although later I felt that it was not as cost-effective to do futures in the bull market as stocks, and stocks were more certain, so I withdrew all the money back to make stocks, but after all, I have some experience and experience, plus some readers hope that I can share my experience, so I use a few chapters to talk about futures, and also prepare and transition for the related plots later.)

The following is part of the May 24 weekend homework, the main course is a blog post by Mr. Tamana, and the side dish is a supplementary point of view for the board, just for your reference to my thoughts:

As Yu Ming said, this week's disk changes can be described as dramatic, in the ushered in the pressure of new funds, the market adjusted for several days, fell to 4260 points, made in China 2025 plan officially introduced, brokerage bank stocks and other large financial sectors suddenly forced, China's manufacturing sector in full bloom, leading the market to continue to rebound, and finally hit a new high, the Shanghai Index rose sharply on Friday, breaking through the 4600 point mark, closing at 4657 points. This continuous short-forcing trend has forced many new funds that began to be thawed on Friday to make up at a high level.

And I was very helpless to play the new result, on Tuesday I used 1.89 million top grids to play the new, but one of them missed, and others were not much better, most of them were 500 or 1000 shares, and more people missed one share. Fortunately, I didn't see the situation right on Wednesday morning, so I didn't continue to play new, made up the position, and bought a Chinese manufacturing stock that reversed the unfrozen 1.89 million on Friday morning, and then pulled it up and made some gains. But all in all, this IPO is not cost-effective, and I will basically not participate in the IPO in the future, even if I want to avoid risks, I would rather put the funds in the account, so that I can buy the bottom at any time.

On Friday, as I expected, the beginning of the two-eight divergence, the rise of the main board, the small and medium-sized board and the gem once appeared a large dive, in the Shanghai index rose 2.83%, the small and medium-sized board only rose 0.67%, the gem fell 0.31%, many strong stocks that rose in the early stage have obvious signs of shipment.

This phenomenon needs to be paid attention to, after all, the first wave of rise since last year is dominated by weighted stocks, the second wave of rise, small and medium-sized innovation is a hot spot, then as I said in the assignment before, the third wave of rise will have a style switch, the emperor takes turns to do, this year to my home, the third wave of rise is likely to rise again on the main board, small and medium-sized innovation will be weaker, especially in the early stage of the rise of ten times eight times or even more stocks, may see the medium-term top, and the small and medium-sized board and gem, Those safe stocks that have not risen much will have a greater chance of making up for the gains.

Now the question is, there are two gaps in the Shanghai Composite Index in three days, will it be filled after that? Will there be a third gap on Monday, forcing the new funds that were unfrozen on Monday to cover the position?

Theoretically, there is a possibility of a third gap. After all, Thursday night was the bearish of Guotai Junan's 30 billion IPO. The main force is still determined to force the short. In the end, it was forced to make up for the new funds that were unfrozen on Friday. Therefore, it once again set a transaction record of 1,000 billion in the Shanghai Index, 987.7 billion in Shenzhen, and a total of 1,987.7 billion in the two cities, approaching two trillion, and the trading volume was finally effectively enlarged (of course, the enlargement of the turnover of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is not a good thing, because with the high opening and low of small and medium-sized enterprises, the phased shipment market). Then, according to the previous routine of the main force, it is possible that another batch of new funds that will be unfrozen on Monday will be forced to replenish the position. Then rush up and down, and find the appropriate opportunity to adjust. If this is the case, then the two negatives of the weekend, including the umbrella allocation to close the position and the 14 Zhuang stocks being investigated, cannot stop the determination of the main force.

Of course, the actual trend will be more complicated. This kind of short squeezing, I feel that on the one hand, the main board is creating conditions for small and medium-sized enterprises to ship, and on the other hand, it is also difficult for retail investors. If you open high on Monday and fall back in the afternoon to make up for the shortfall, the funds chasing higher in the morning will at least be trapped. And if this wave rushes to 4700-4800, then a big adjustment. Many retail investors who have been chasing higher in the past two days will be trapped.

If there is a gap tomorrow, will it be three jumps in a row? I said that on Friday, in the Miracle Group. I will post the chat transcript in the homework, including an explanation of how to raise more funds, the risks of financing allocation, and an explanation of the abbreviation of the stock code for your reference.

In short, my opinion is that the gap on May 20 can be regarded as a breakthrough gap, and then the gap on May 22 can be regarded as a continuous gap, and the continuous gap must reach more than two, and the rally will continue for a while. Of course, the gap theory is a theory, the trend is a trend, if there is a gap on Monday, the trading volume of the day decreases, and the gap is quickly filled in the next two days (intraday filling is not a gap), we must be vigilant, keep an eye on the disk, and do not follow the theory of jumping three times in a row.

But in any case, the Shanghai Composite MACD yellow and white line appeared a daily golden cross, and four consecutive yang, a new high, the Bollinger Bands still have a little horn trend, and the technical indicators of the weekly and monthly lines are also OK. The market is so strong, in the short term, it is mainly to hold stocks to rise, and you can pay attention to the changes in the market. If there are signs of a big correction, you can reduce your position, and if it is strong, hold the stock. After all, following trends is the most important thing. I have said many times in my books and assignments that you don't go long or short in the stock market, you only do slippery. There are no absolutes, only coping.

Yes, there are no absolutes in the stock market, if you judge the trend wrong, you have to correct it, you have to correct it. As I judged that the center of this weekly line is a little small, there are some worries that there will be a big correction as Tamana's words. But if the market goes all the way up, then don't worry about the size of the pivot, unless there are obvious signs of readjustment, consider reducing positions, and after reducing positions, you have to pick it up at the right time.

Fortunately, the general direction is still clear, that is, the shock is upward, rushing 5000 points, so there is no short-term technology, and some adjustment bands can be given up to do the band, after all, even if the market is adjusted, many security stocks have bucked the trend to create a new high since this wave of bull market, and they will get off if they are not careful, and they can only find other safety stocks.

Of course, the market has risen to this position, which is nearly twice as high as the low point of this bull market of 1849 points, and the funds will have a fear of heights, and this is already the position of the rebound platform in February 2008. As I said a month ago, 4300-4600 is the position of this rebound platform, which is prone to big shocks, and then there is a weekly level adjustment, and the weekly center of 4260-4415 points is currently constructed, which is basically in the position I said.

And if there is no major adjustment, continue to attack, then more than 100 points, close to November 2007 to January 2008 rebound platform position, but also 6124 points after the peak of the first rebound platform, that is, 4800-5500 area, at that time some experts advocated the golden decade bull market, 10,000 points, this position set a lot of old shareholders (the new leeks of the year). So the higher you go, the more you trap the disk. Of course, with the Sky Wolf 50, the hedging chips at that time have long been cut by now, so what is more important is the psychological effect, that is, the psychological resistance of funds will increase, including the old shareholders who have been trapped in that area for a long time, and they will also have the desire to sell their shares and leave the market. Therefore, there will be relatively strong shocks in this area, and intraday diving, washing and pulling will become the new normal.

And if the super main forces adopt the previous siege method, then after rising above 4800 points in the future, there will also be diving shocks at any time to resolve the pressure of the 07 rebound platform. Be mentally prepared for this.

From the trend point of view, for the time being, the current wave of rise is regarded as the main rising wave after the adjustment, that is, the third wave of the main rise since last year, mainly with patient holdings. As I said before at this stage, it will be the main rising wave with relatively fat profits, and many stocks that have previously stagnated will explode, including the main board stocks, and this wave of profits cannot be missed.

Of course, there is still another possibility here, that is, it is possible to make an unexpected adjustment near the 4700-4800 point, when everyone is relieved, it unexpectedly falls sharply, and the big reshuffle still falls back to around 4100 points. In this way, it is still to build another form of weekly center, that is, it is still in the second wave of rebound, and then there is a third wave of major adjustment, to build a large weekly center, that is, a large center of 4100-4572 points, and then start the third main rising wave, going around 5500 points, and then there will be a fourth weekly center.

Of course, this trend is certainly inconsistent with the wave theory, because the rebound of wave B after wave A falls generally does not exceed the high point of wave A. However, as a weekly pivot trend of entanglement, this trend can also be stored in zài, and there have been precedents. Of course, it's more complicated. As a shareholder, you must consider everything in the stock market and be mentally prepared.

But either way, don't worry too much about what might happen in the future...... You should be mentally prepared for this kind of contingency, but you should not stop climbing the mountain because it may rain.

In the stock market, there is only response, not absolute.

The bull market loves Monday, and I wish you all a great profit tomorrow. (To be continued......) R527