Chapter 327 - The Use of Price Comparison Relations
The first criterion for a low-level safe stock is that it has gone through a long period of declines and sharp declines. In this kind of stocks, Ding Xu's favorite is to look for those new stocks that have just been listed in the past two years, fallen below more than half of the issue price, and preferably fell to about one-third of the issue price, have not risen sharply during the period, and have been sideways for half a year to a year, with low chips and dense sub-new stocks.
Once the chips of this kind of stock are low and intensive, the volume starts, coupled with the long arrangement of the moving average, once the market recovers, it is very likely to take advantage of the situation to pull back to the issue price. And that's doubled!
If you can catch ten such stocks in a row and all of them can return to the issue price, then it will be doubled ten times in a row, and 10,000 yuan can become 10.24 million yuan!
These three sentences seem simple, but Ding Xu has studied the trend of hundreds of stocks and used a variety of analysis models to reach conclusions, which belong to Ding Xu's original strategy and one of the core models in Ding Xu's profit model.
For the analysis of stocks, Ding Xu has formed his own analysis model, using fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and price comparison analysis. These are three independent analysis models, which can make up for each other's shortcomings and greatly improve the success rate of Ding Xu's stock selection.
In the past few days, Ding Xu has begun to contact the blog of a blogger named "Zen in Entanglement", and he also saw that Entanglement said that he put forward such a point of view in the article, that is, at least three or more independent analysis models must be used to ensure the rate of return.
As for some of the simultaneous use of KDJ, MACD, BOLL indicators, as well as combined with K-line moving average volume, chips indicators to analyze stocks at the same time, because all technical indicators are actually deduced from the volume and price, there is no essential difference between the indicators. So all laws are one. This is just one of the analytical modes that make up it. Those who claim to be technologists who use several operating systems. In fact, it has fallen into a misunderstanding.
Both fundamentals and technicals are easy to understand, so what is the price comparison relationship?
The price comparison relationship in the stock market refers to the relationship between the price ratio of stocks and stocks in a certain period of time, as well as the proportional relationship between the existing price of stocks in the historical price fluctuations of stocks. In short, it is a vertical comparison relationship between the historical prices of the large market index and individual stocks, and the horizontal comparison relationship between different stock prices, that is, the relationship between the price comparison ratio at the same time. This is a change in the comparative relationship. It can be thought of as a buying and selling system, buying at a low ratio and selling at a high ratio.
For example, when the market rose from 998 points to 6000 points in 2007, the specific value was equal to 6000/998=6, just over two years, the increase was more than 5 times, obviously rose too much, it belonged to a super high ratio, and the whole market fell into irrational madness, so the stock should be sold. Lock in profits and stay out of the market.
After that, the broader market fell from a high of 6,124 points to 1,664 points. Ratio value = 1664/6124 = 0.27, down three-quarters, the time and space for the fall have been in place, it belongs to the ultra-low ratio, then you should buy the stock back, Bo a rebound or reversal.
Ding Xu re-entered the stock market at the end of 2008, but he felt that the market had fallen by three-quarters, and there should be a wave of rebound. After the four trillion economic stimulus policy came out, he felt that there would be a wave of small bull market, so he always operated with a full position, and in just a few months, he won several times the income for himself.
The reason why Ding Xu has been operating with a full position is because he has seen this price comparison relationship, knows that it is still a historical low and bottom, and the market has just risen, so he dares to boldly operate with a full position, and dares to pursue strong stocks such as China Railway Second Bureau and Qianyuan Power.
The market is like this, and the stock is like this, and the price comparison relationship is the same. When a stock falls long enough, it naturally has the momentum to rebound upward. On the contrary, when it rises too much for too long, there will naturally be a demand for a fall.
Of course, this also includes the same sector, some stocks have risen a lot, some stocks have risen very little, then there will be this kind of horizontal comparison in the same sector, the one that rises more has a callback requirement, and the one that rises less has a make-up requirement.
This includes some content of market trading psychology, including empathy.
For example, when Ding Xu created the miracle group last year, he believed that from the perspective of the bookmaker, the stock of Baotou Steel Rare Earth fell from the high point in 2007, fell by four-fifths, and then traded sideways at the bottom. But this stock has fallen so much, the price is not far from the average price of the 2000-2004 bear market, in this position of more than 5 yuan, the main profit is not much, and the recent cost of opening a position is also higher than 5 yuan. Therefore, once the market recovers, the main force will rise sharply, leaving this bottom cost area as much as possible, so as not to be picked up by other investors and retail investors. According to this reasoning, we can see at least a doubling in the future, and a return to the 2007 highs is also possible, and everyone has a chance to solve the problem.
The basis of this inference is to compare and analyze the longitudinal price changes of Baotou Iron and Steel rare earths in history. Unlike some new shareholders, Ding Xu joined the reinstatement, so this vertical comparison is more scientific and reasonable.
And Ding Xu's conclusion also made the group members who had just entered the miracle group at that time feel at ease, and they hugged together to keep warm, and began to cover the buns firmly, no matter how the main force washes the dishes, they will not move like a mountain, and they will never hand over the chips in their hands lightly.
Facts have proved that after the main force of Baotou Steel Rare Earth completed the construction of the position and absorbed the chips, it began to quickly break out of the cost area by means of a price limit. In just two or three months, Baotou Steel rare earth has doubled, and the rise is not over, the upward trend is still strong, and there is still room for growth in the future.
For another example, when Ding Xuhe analyzed Kingsoft Development, he believed that compared with the issue price many years ago, Kingsoft Development only increased by one or two times, and the main force made little profit. Moreover, in the Disney concept stocks, the rise of Kingsoft Development is very small, and after the continuous rise of other concept stocks such as Waigaoqiao, Kingsoft Development has a demand for making up for the rise, and it can be a short-term and medium-term.
This kind of inference is not only a vertical comparison between the historical highs and lows, the issue price and the current price of the same stock, but also a horizontal comparison within a sector.
Of course, this side-by-side comparison seems unwarranted, because stocks have performed both well and badly. There is a close relationship with the related Disney concept and there is a substantial performance improvement expectation. There are also just a little edges. It's purely conceptual hype, of course, the increase is different, there doesn't seem to be anything strange, and there is no inevitability to make up for it.
Dan Ding Xu uses a special method of fundamental analysis. He believes that the so-called performance or concept is not the most important, but the important thing is the holding cost and the desire to make money. Hope. And a good thing like Disney comes out. All the stocks that benefit should be evenly wet, and the main force of the vast majority of stocks will have the desire to take advantage of this good and concept to do a wave of market after seeing the leading stocks lead the big rise. Hope.
As the saying goes, there is no such shop in this village.
Therefore, when the gap between the rich and the poor in a conceptual plate is too large, the other main forces will inevitably be psychologically unbalanced, and they will also be afraid of missing the opportunity to rise. Therefore, in most cases, the stagflation in the early stage is only to highlight the strength of the leading stocks, as well as to meet their own needs to take the opportunity to wash the market, and once the time is ripe, it will make up for the rise. to make up for the gains between yourself and the rest of the main force. Even if it can't be compared to the gains of the leading stocks, at least try to catch up with the average gains within the sector. Don't be the last one.
In particular, the main force of Kingsoft Development, in history only in 2007 rose a large wave, most of the time after the listing at the bottom of the sideways shock, over the years the main force of the profit is not much, which is related to the main business of Kingsoft Development is bicycles and poor performance. And the more this kind of main force that has not made profits for a long time, once there is an opportunity to pull up, the more it will not be missed.
Because of this, Ding Xu agrees with not eating fat and taking his friends to do a wave of short-term supplemental market for Jinshan development.
This kind of analysis is based on the psychology of market transactions, and it is also based on the conclusion drawn after empathy, which is that Ding Xu imagines that if he is the main force of Kingsoft Development, how to grasp the opportunity to pull up? In the end, Ding Xu thought that if he was to operate the market, then he would first take advantage of the sharp rise in Waigaoqiao, but he would not move or even make a slight adjustment, forming a sharp contrast, washing away the retail investors who couldn't bear the loneliness, and then suddenly pulling up, so that the retail investors could not get on the car.
When Ding Xu analyzed it in the group, the Zen master once pointed out that Ding Xu's analysis was directly aimed at people's hearts, very sharp, involving human greed, fear, etc., which was reasonable and reliable. Other members of the group also thought that this analysis was very novel and made people pause.
After that, this analysis method became popular in the miracle group, and many group members not only thought about the problem from the perspective of themselves and other retail investors, but also from the perspective of the main force, so that some problems that could not be figured out suddenly became clear, and thus found the right trading strategy.
After the development of Jinshan, it was indeed stronger than Waigaoqiao, and when Waigaoqiao dived sharply, Jinshan Development could also play the oil plate in the position of the price limit. But Ding Xu pointed out at this time that this is just that the main force has not risen much, and it is too late to run away, so it has to be held up, and then the entire Disney plate should fall.
I also agreed with this analysis, and led the group members of the miracle group to escape victoriously in the position of the oil plate, and made a successful short-term.
According to the understanding of Zen in the entanglement: "No stock is independent, and in the entire stock market, it is in a certain price comparison relationship. The change in this price comparison relationship can also constitute a buying and selling system. This buying and selling system is related to the flow of market funds, and a system related to market funds cannot be independent of it. ”
Therefore, Ding Xu initially unconsciously compared the changes between stock prices, and therefore set his own stock selection criteria. It wasn't until he saw the blog that he realized that this kind of comparison actually has a scientific name that is not easy to understand, called price comparison.
Therefore, the price comparison relationship is not complicated, such as the vertical comparison of the historical high and low of stock prices, as well as the horizontal comparison between sectors, in fact, many retail investors have paid attention to it, but they have not thought deeper.
And whether you can think a little deeper, the difference in operation effect is very large.
For the use of this price comparison relationship, Ding Xu finally summarized and applied it to his core profit model, and after preparing to make Baozi and Qianyuan Power, the next stage is to find a future dark horse that falls below more than half of the issue price.
Of course, there are often group friends who ask: "Why are you looking for so many people who fall below the issue price?" This kind of stock tends to have a declining performance year after year, and the industry outlook is not good. ”
Ding Xu gave them this analogy: "A boss produced a batch of leather shoes and sold them in the mall for 100 yuan. This is equivalent to the issue price of one stock. But business in the mall is not good. It's very deserted. There were no customers, so the boss had to shed tears and sell at a price of fifty, or even thirty, to recover some costs and maintain operations. But then the market got better, like the bull market in 2007, and the number of customers coming to the mall gradually increased. The boss naturally wants to resell the leather shoes to 100 yuan, just like a stock that falls below half of the issue price, and the stock price will eventually return to the issue price. As for performance, have you seen a few people who buy leather shoes, and will find out the true cost price of that pair of leather shoes? Because leather shoes are attached to the brand value, the same production cost, hanging different brands, the price will be several times different. In the stock market, the brand value is equal to the cost of the bookmaker, which is the most important. ”
listened to Ding Xu's explanation. The bull demon asked another question: "Miracle, I think you have walked into a misunderstanding." Leather shoes are sold for a hundred. It doesn't mean that the cost is 100, because there is such a magical thing as the original shares, in the hands of those major shareholders and executives, the cost may only be one yuan per share. ”
Ding Xu replied: "You are very right, this is where market psychology comes in. We often see media reports that someone has become another billionaire in China, or even the richest man somewhere, because the company went public. Then after listing, both major shareholders and executives will be accustomed to measuring their wealth by the issue price and listing price. That is to say, even if it is an original stock of one yuan, after it is listed, it will be regarded as its own net wealth. But then the stock price kept falling, and their wealth kept shrinking, and of course they weren't happy. After the ban on restricted shares is lifted, the psychological price at which they sell shares is generally to return to above the issue price before selling, and if they can sell more than one or two times the issue price, they will be happier, because it means that their wealth will increase significantly again. Therefore, this kind of stock, no matter sooner or later, there is a high probability that it will return to the issue price, and large-cap stocks such as PetroChina are more special, and this process may take many years, but small-cap stocks are very obvious, and it is relatively easier to return to the issue price. ”
"Makes sense, but I still have a question, why hasn't your bar ever risen dramatically?" The bull demon asked.
"Technically, it's going to be perfect. There are three types of stock movements, up, down, and consolidation. A stock that has never risen sharply after listing, only falling and consolidating at the bottom, the trend is bound to be imperfect, and a symmetrical rise is needed to complete a real stock trend. From a psychological point of view, such stocks are detrimental to the economic interests of the company's stakeholders. Therefore, the interests of a group of stakeholders, including executives and major shareholders, will be reflected in the stock price. Ding Xu replied.
It was also from this Q&A that Ding Xu's stock selection model was understood by everyone, including Ding Xu's use of the price comparison relationship, which was also recognized and imitated by everyone.
For example, in the past, many people opened the stock K-line chart, only looked at the K-line trend of this month, and then developed a habit like Ding Xu, using the downward arrow keys on the keyboard to call out all the historical trends, first find the highest and lowest points in history, and then compare the current stock price, to make a longitudinal comparison, so as to understand whether the stock is now at a high or low level.
Although this habit takes about ten seconds, it is very important.
Develop a good habit and make fewer mistakes and detours in the stock market.
…………………………… Dividing line ..............................
(I would like to sincerely thank "applepai523", "Dong Du Shao" and other hardcore book friends for generously rewarding the alliance leader of this book, and welcome to the alliance leader group (miracle group) family exchange.) Good luck.
Beauties, happy March 8th Festival, beautiful and healthy forever.
On the weekend's news side, the more important news is the Securities Regulatory Commission. The issuance of brokerage licenses to banks is being studied, and bank stocks will be boosted, while there will be a little negative impact on brokerage stocks. Tonight's weekend analysis will take this as one of the analysis contents and communicate with you.
During this time, I am going to seriously study the entanglement theory, which can be regarded as a few days of retreat, and the communication in the group will be reduced accordingly. I hope that when I finish reading, I can improve my short-term skills qualitatively, and the chapter content from tomorrow will share relevant content, and fans are welcome to communicate and discuss with me.
It's going to open tomorrow, and I wish you all a lot of money. (To be continued......)