Chapter 267: How to Analyze a Stock (1)
Since Ding Xu rarely operates stocks, he mainly covers stocks for a long time, sees more and moves less, and only occasionally takes group friends to do T. * Therefore, some anxious group members can't stand it and can't help but take a part of the position as a short-term.
If you don't eat fat, Totoro especially likes to do short-term and chase strong stocks. Although they only have a few hundred thousand dollars, they like to diversify their investments and buy one or two stocks in one go. Almost every of the most dazzling strong stocks and star stocks in the market, these two guys have to buy a little. So every day, they have to shout in the group, saying which of their stocks has risen again, and as for those stocks that are cut after being set at a loss, they are not very embarrassed to say.
In the words of not eating fat, the short line is dancing on the tip of the knife, the strength is not used, and it is normal to bleed and sacrifice.
In fact, the first two months of eating fat were mainly medium and long-term, but at the end of 2oo8, he took stock of the harvest, and now he makes more money in the bear market in the short term, but since joining the miracle group, he began to do medium and long-term like Ding Xu, and the profitability of a stock has decreased, so he is very confused.
So I didn't eat fat and took advantage of the few days of the New Year's Day holiday, no longer chatting in the group, but began to retreat, seriously summarized my gains and losses, and initially went out on January 4, 2oo9, declaring that he was the same as Linghu Chong, and practiced the "toilet stabbing fly swordsmanship", and he wanted to be a sword in the future.
In fact, the result of the retreat is to sum up a truth, the shareholding strategy should vary from person to person, and some people are anxious, quick to respond, and good at finding profits in short-term fluctuations, so they should stick to the short-term. Some people are slow to react and slow to react. Good at accumulating profits in long-term trends. You should stick to the long term.
He used to be good at short-term. As a result, after entering the miracle group, I learned to do the medium and long term, but I couldn't stand the torment of the medium and long term, so I couldn't help but move the stocks, and finally made the tiger not an anti-dog, the short-term is not the short-term, and the long-term is not the long-term.
Therefore, if you don't get fat, you feel that you have realized, and in the future, you still have to wave the short-term technology that you are most interested in and best at to the limit, and only chase those strong stocks that are trending upwards and have at least one or two daily limits. Because this kind of stock must be a strong stock. Although it is dancing on the tip of a knife, once you see it, the harvest is also very large, and the money comes very quickly.
And to grasp strong stocks, you don't think that you can either snipe the stocks that the main force has not had time to leave after the price limit, so that the main force will most likely pull a wave, and it is easy to make a quick profit if you follow the trend; Either snipe the stocks that have pulled back after a sharp pullback, and wait for the second wave of the market. All in all, don't buy low-priced stocks. Only buy high-level stocks that have started the main upward wave, so that the profit is fast. The profits are also huge.
"The stock that is just about to start at a low level, the main force is like a turtle, it retracts its head as soon as there is a wind and grass, and it is endlessly shaking and sucking chips, which can grind people to death! And into the main wave of stocks, the main force is like climbing the ladder, can only advance, can not retreat, is the so-called since ancient Huashan road! Follow the main force to go to the main rising wave, the risk and return are proportional, it is the king! "This is the ultimate retreat insight of not eating fat.
At this point, Ding Xu's medium and long-term way of lurking in low-level safety stocks has basically been abandoned without fat. He believes that this is the fundamental reason why his income after joining the group is not as good as before. Because the bottom of the stocks, it is often difficult to grasp the timing of its real start, you see it pull the root of the long yang out, and wait for the callback to intervene, as a result, it makes a box at the bottom, repeatedly pulls up and then suppresses it, endlessly sucking chips, a finishing is a few months or even a year, the main force is very patient, but we retail investors can't afford to delay that time.
Therefore, if you don't get fat, you decide to play short, flat and fast, as the so-called long-term should be stable and short-term should be rushed.
Coincidentally, after eating not fat out of the customs, it also coincided with the good start of the year, the market has become better these days, and the number of limit stocks has also increased. For a while, he became famous in the group and was named the king of the short term.
Although he lost Maicheng today, he still thinks that his choice is right if he doesn't get fat, so he continues to cheer for the group friends who followed the trend to buy Jinshankai: "The six daily limits in the early stage have now been half of the callback." According to the group leader, it is the annual market, and there is no trap in the bull market! What is the point of setting more than one point? Soon it will come back and it will allow you to make money. Besides, it's the beginning of the year again, and Jinshan has a good name for this stock, with gold, mountains, and opening. Gold is wealth, mountains are backers, and opening represents the future. Group leader, didn't you also say that there are stocks such as gold, cattle, treasure, horses, exhibitions, and blessings in the name, and they are easy to be hyped at the beginning of the year, and the main force also wants to be auspicious. ”
"All I can say is that there has been this pattern in the past, but not all of these stocks can go up. And it is also necessary to divide the high and low, the low level of this kind of stock, often two days before the opening of the market every year there is a hype, but the high level is difficult to say, if it is not good, it will be shipped. ”
After listening to the analysis of not getting fat, Ding Xu said helplessly, "After all, now the rise of these concept stocks and theme stocks is not small, and they have basically doubled, and they are in the stage where the main force may be sent at any time, and the chase high risk is still relatively large, so we must be cautious." As for what you said about Jinshan Kai, I haven't studied it carefully before. Since you encourage everyone to follow the trend and buy, I think let's study it first before deciding whether to buy it or not. ”
"The group leader is going to lecture again!" Liu Yue heard the string song and knew the elegance, cheered excitedly, and hurriedly brought out a picture of moving a small bench.
"Lecture of the god of stocks!" The stock market boat also made a picture of flowers.
Although the name of the stock market boat is very low-key, Ding Xu knows that this guy has taken millions of stocks and is an out-and-out local tyrant in the group.
Just a while ago, the stock market boat lost a lot in the big bear market of 2oo8, shrinking from a battleship to a small fishing boat. Fortunately, he finally found the organization, and after entering the miracle group, he began to cover the bun with Ding Xu, and his assets finally began to stop falling and rebound, and he began to be full of confidence in the future.
Every time Ding Xu starts a series of explanations, he will take notes carefully, and he will repeatedly study and figure out Ding Xu's lecture records, and strive to form his own stable profit model.
It is precisely because there are group friends such as the stock market boat that Ding Xu likes to carry out systematic discussions in the group more and more, on the one hand, it is better to teach people to fish than to teach them to fish. On the other hand, in the discussion and exchange. I often inspire myself. Pay attention to the areas that have been ignored by yourself in the past and avoid the effect of darkness under the lamp.
"I'm not going to give a lecture, I'm just going to talk to you about how I analyze a stock. Let me first state that I am just a small retail investor who has not been in the market for a long time, and I am really not a young stock god advocated by Sun Securities, and my views are not necessarily correct, just for your reference to my analytical ideas. Ding Xu said a few words modestly as usual.
"Excessive modesty is pride." The eldest son of the Li family laughed. urged, "Let's get to the point, let's talk about what you think of this stock." I also want to see what is the difference between your analytical thinking and that of analysts at our securities companies. ”
"Don't worry, since Jinshan Kai has fallen, it is not so easy to go up, and even if you want to operate, I don't think this morning is a good time, let's see it at the end." Let alone. Most of us are full of steamed buns, and the trend of steamed buns today is also good. So let's not be in a hurry and discuss slowly, otherwise it is easy to make mistakes in the busy. ”
Ding Xu smiled, then opened the software, and replied, "Tanhua, I am different from you professionals, I read some books by myself, and combined with actual combat experience, I summed up a routine. Everyone's routine is different, but at least you have to form your own routine. If the routine is right, the profit model will be successful, and then you only need to simply repeat this profit model. ”
"Then how do you form your own routine?" The book walker asked with great interest.
"It's simple, just keep doing it, try it, and you're good to go." Ding Xu replied, "For example, in the past few days, I have been emphasizing that I hope everyone will not see any stocks, and they all say this - 'Miracle, help me look at xx'." I'd rather see people say something like this - 'Miracle, I'm ready to buy xx, I think he's going to go up, the reason is first, second, third ......'. Everyone must learn to analyze comprehensively on their own, and only then will there be progress. Even if you're a complete novice and your initial analysis is completely wrong, even ridiculous, it doesn't matter, people will discuss with you and correct your bias so that you know where you're wrong, where to work on, and revise your judgment. After verifying with the stock price trend later, you will have a deep impression and gradually form your own routine and your own opinions. The next time you encounter a similar situation, you can seize the opportunity or avoid the pitfall. ”
"That's right, it's better to teach a man to fish than to teach him to fish. Someone gives you a fish, and you're done with one meal. And if you learn how to fish, you can have no worries about food and clothing for a lifetime. The stock market boat nodded and said approvingly, "Okay, miracle, you can quickly talk about how to analyze the idea of Jinshan to open this stock." ”
"First, my personal habit is to look at a stock, to analyze the fundamentals and technical aspects comprehensively. But before I analyze the fundamentals, I'll take a rough look at whether it's a relatively high or low historically. Because my habit is to buy safe stocks and do medium to long-term stocks, I generally don't have to waste time studying the fundamentals of stocks that are at historical highs and have signs of shipment. ”
Ding Xu said, "The easiest way to judge the high and low is to open the K-line chart, then press CTR1+B, adjust to the post-adjustment method, and then keep pressing the downward arrow key on the keyboard to keep shrinking the K-line chart, and call up all the historical trend charts since the listing." Then use the mouse, or use the left and right arrow keys on the keyboard, look at the leftmost and rightmost candlesticks, see what the closing price is on the day it goes public, and then compare what the current post-weighting price is, so that you can roughly estimate how many times the stock has risen from when it was listed. Of course, for many stocks, especially some new stocks, because there is no limit on the rise and fall on the day of listing, it is possible that the closing price of the listing will be one or even several times higher than the market price, so you should also press F1O, in the company profile, look at his line price, so as to know how many times the current price has risen from the market price. ”
"Why should you care about this?" The stock market boat said in confusion, "For example, Jinshan Kai, I looked at the information in F1O according to your method, it was listed on January 8, 1993, the market price was 6 yuan, the opening price on the listing day was 17.6O yuan, and the closing price of the day was 15.1O yuan." But what does the market price 15 years ago have to do with the current price? ”
"Of course, there is a relationship, some stocks have been listed for a few years, and the increase is as high as dozens of times, so that the main force is extremely profitable, and it will be shipped as soon as there is a wind and grass. And those major shareholders, as well as some of the fund companies in the top 10 shareholders, are also very profitable. Those major shareholders sometimes use various excuses to reduce their holdings at high levels, such as meeting the company's innovation and transformation needs, etc., such as the company's cash flow difficulties, and so on. These excuses cannot be trusted, because excuses are excuses, and it is the operation mode of these major shareholders to sell high and suck low. ”
Ding Xu explained, "And some stocks that are sluggish in the industry, or stocks that have been suppressed by the main force at a low level, such as some large-cap stocks, will be at a relatively low level for several years or even more than ten years, only one or two times higher than the market price, and some stocks are even significantly lower than the market price a few years ago or more than ten years ago." Such stocks are generally considered by retail investors to be unsupportable, and they are junk stocks with no future. But if you think about it from another perspective, these low-level stocks have been sold by retail investors for so many years, so who is optimistic about them and continues to buy? ”
"The main force!" The stock market boat's eyes lit up.
"Well, this kind of stock, the main force has not made a profit for many years, and the stock price is sometimes even lower than the holding cost of the main force, and it is the main force that wants to pull up the stock price the most. When the time comes, the upside potential is limitless. If there is a big benefit, or the recovery of the industry, just like the old saying, gold scales are not a thing in the pool, and they will turn into dragons when they encounter a storm! ”
Ding Xu replied, "This is just the opposite of high-level stocks, high-level stocks, retail investors generally don't dare to chase up, and the main force is also high and low, and the high place is cold, so what I am thinking about is how to ship." If there is a big benefit, they just take advantage of the good to ship and cash in the profits, which is the fundamental reason for the death of the light. ”
……………………… Dividing Line.......................................
(I would like to express my heartfelt thanks to hardcore book friends such as "Positive and Righteous Path Practice", 1yycy, and "ggjjj" for generously rewarding the leader of this book, and welcome to the big family of the alliance leader group (miracle group) for exchange.)
To be clear, the F1O information in my book, as well as the chip distribution, etc., may not be the same as that of some readers, because each stock trading software is different. I use the "Founder Spring DFI Professional Edition" downloaded from the official website of Founder Securities, and I am only used to using this one. If readers want to compare the information in these chapters while reading the software, they can go to the official website of Founder to download one, and the independent market mode does not require an account, it is free. (To be continued......)
Tips: The new domain name "biquge.info" has been launched by Biquge, and the original domain name is about to be discontinued. Please tell each other, thank you!