Chapter 193 Calculation of the Position of the Bottom
"Thanks to a miracle today, it cleared the warehouse with us, otherwise it would have been miserable!"
"Yes, thanks to the group owner, we cleared the warehouse. It's a pity that I'm only willing to lose half of my position, alas, I really regret it! ”
"Thanks to the guy, last night he said that he wanted to look long and short, and the opinion of the group owner was the same, so today I followed the two of them and sold the bun in the morning. Otherwise, I will lose more than eight points, which is really scary when I think about it! ”
"The buns could rise against the market yesterday, and today they finally can't bear it, alas!"
"I'm miserable today, I didn't believe the words of the group leader, the guy, and Qi Fei, I didn't want to sell the bun, and I expected it to rise back to nine yuan and sell it again, but the result was ......"
"Don't say it, I'm just like you. It's a pity that there is no regret medicine to buy in this world. ”
"The guy basically sold at the highest point today, but he only sold a third of it, and the group owner was all cleared. In this way, it should be more cost-effective for the group owner. ”
After the closing, the miracle group was as noisy as the vegetable market, and everyone was stunned by the huge decline in the market and Baotou Steel's rare earths today.
After all, this is a good fall in the interest rate cut, which greatly surprised retail investors.
Fortunately, in the discussion after the close of the market yesterday, Ding Xu and the guy liked to speculate on stocks, and Qi Fei and Glorious Years each supported one person. Everyone is at a loss, the benefit of interest rate cuts has come out, and the guy loves to speculate in stocks, so he changed his attitude, thinking that the main force will take advantage of the good cash and ship, long in the medium term, and bearish in the short term.
Because the guy likes to speculate on stocks and is bullish and short, he reached an agreement with Ding Xu and Qi Fei, so the group members of the miracle group are no longer entangled. After all, the three core figures in the group have all reached an agreement. Therefore, most of the people today have followed Ding Xu and the guy who loves to speculate in stocks, reduce their positions or even clear their positions.
It's just that even the guy loves to speculate on stocks, and he didn't expect it. The market and Baotou Steel rare earth will be bullished by an interest rate cut. But it fell so badly.
The decline of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has exceeded 4%, and Baotou Steel Rare Earth fell by 8.25%, almost falling to the limit, closing at 8.o1 yuan, barely holding the integer mark of 8 yuan, with a turnover of 150 million and a turnover rate of 4.39%, down nearly 2% from yesterday's turnover rate. It is a shrinkage decline.
"In the process of a sharp drop in stock prices, it is usually an initial shrinkage, a medium-term increase, and finally a shrinkage process." Ding Xu analyzed in the miracle group, "Because there were many retail investors who were reluctant to sell in the early stage, they couldn't release the amount. However, when it falls to a certain extent, retail investors have also joined the killing team, and institutional funds are all shipping, there will be a process of killing and falling in large quantities. Until there is no way to fall, what should be sold is almost sold. Only then will there be the final shrinkage, that is, the amount of land will see the land price. ”
"What else do you analyze after it's all sold?" Zhao Zheyi said listlessly.
Zhao Zheyi reduced half of his position in early trading today. But at that time, I felt like a knife.
Because although Zhao Zheyi likes to complain, he still has the determination to hold shares, and he has always refused to cut his meat.
In his words, it was, "I can't admit it, or I'll be finished!" ”
It's just that he has been observing the stock operations of Ding Xu, Qi Fei and the guy who loves to speculate in stocks, and he still admires and trusts these three people. Now that they have reached an agreement, Zhao Zheyi did not dare to slack off, tentatively took out half of the position, and at the same time was ready to pick it up again at any time.
It's just that Zhao Zheyi didn't expect that the market and Baotou Steel rare earth would fall so miserably.
Thinking that his other half's position had suffered such a big loss, Zhao Zheyi was very depressed.
"Of course, I have to analyze, and I have to judge when I can pick up the buns. In addition to calculating the downside below the uptrend line, it is also necessary to refer to the shrinkage of the volume. Ding Xu smiled and explained.
Hearing this, Zhao Zhe didn't say anything for a while, and quickly called up the K-line chart to study it for a while, and then screamed: "I'm rubbing, the bun really fell below the upward trend line!" It's over, it should all be cleared today! ”
For the drawing of the upward trend line of Baotou Iron and Steel rare earth, the guy loves to speculate on stocks and Ding Xu has different views, among which the guy loves to speculate on stocks, which is based on the low point of 5.66 yuan on November 7, and the low point of 6.81 yuan on November 28 and the low point of 8.23 yuan on December 16. When the line was drawn last night, the stock price was still some distance from the lower band of the ascending channel.
According to Ding Xu's painting method, it is connected to the low point of 5.66 yuan on November 7 and the low point of 6.85 yuan on November 26, on this trend line, the closing price of 7.82 yuan on December 12 and the closing price of 7.76 yuan on December 15 are basically on this trend line, and from December 16 to December 22, the stock price is basically crawling with this trend line, and it may fall below at any time.
Today, Baotou Steel rare earth fell by more than eight points, no matter which method of drawing the line, it has fallen below the upward trend line.
After drawing the upward trend line, first measure the vertical distance between the peak of the stock price and the trend line, and then measure the same distance downward from the point where the trend line is broken, which is the target price of the forecast.
Due to the different drawing methods of the upward trend line, Ding Xu and the guy love to speculate on stocks for the calculation of the falling target of Baotou Iron and Steel rare earths is also quite different.
In this wave of market, the highest share price of Baotou Steel Rare Earth is 9.48 yuan.
According to Ding Xu's way of drawing lines, the upward trend line corresponding to the stock price peak of 9.48 yuan is at 7.66 yuan, 9.=1.82 yuan. Today, the position below the ascending trend line is $8.51, so the theoretical downside target is $8.=$6.69.
According to the way the guy loves to speculate on stocks, the upward trend line corresponding to 9.48 yuan is at 7.34 yuan, 9.=2.14 yuan. Today, the position below the ascending trend line is $8.11, so the theoretical downside target is $8.=$5.97.
"I'm faint, according to the miracle algorithm, it will fall by 17%, and according to the guy's algorithm, it will even fall by 25%, and it will fall below six yuan!" Zhao Zheyi sighed, "I'd rather choose to believe in miracles." If it falls below six yuan again, it will return to the lowest point of 5.66 yuan, which is too cruel! ”
"yes, I also think there's something wrong with the guy's calculations." Cherish also echoed the way.
"Let's wait for the market to verify." Ding Xu said, "Since it is judged that the buns are going to fall to around 6.69 yuan, I will rest with empty positions during this time, patiently wait for the market and buns to fall to a low point, and then enter the market to sweep the goods." Everyone should also take a break, and then let's go to the bottom together! If you act without authorization, be mentally prepared for short-term quilts and losses. ”
"Miracle, I listen to you. How many points do you think the market will fall? Cherish asked with a smile.
Today, cherish and follow Ding Xu to clear all the positions in the morning, although it was shipped at a position of two points, but compared with the final closing results, cherishing is already very satisfied.
It's just an empty warehouse, cherished and a little itchy, and I can't help but want to copy the bottom.
This represents the mentality of many group members, because they are used to operating with a full position, not a short position.
It's just that Ding Xu calculated the target level of the fall, cherishing and waiting for the group of friends was like being splashed with a bucket of ice water, and his heart was half cold, and he no longer dared to go to the bottom of the warehouse lightly.
"I did the math, the Shanghai Composite Index will fall to about 1,785 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index will fall to about 6,659 points." Ding Xu replied.
The highest point of the Shanghai Composite Index in this wave of the market is 21oo points, and a vertical line is drawn downwards from the high point of this point. The upward trend line is at 1897 points, 21oo-1897 = 2o3 points. Today's point below the trend line is at 1988 points, and 1988 points minus 2o3 points equals 1785 points, and this 1785 points is the theoretical downside target.
According to Ding Xu's method of drawing lines, the low point of the Shenzhen Component Index on November 7 was 5598 points, and the lows of November 25 and 26 were 639O points and 6433 points, which were connected to form an upward trend line.
The highest point of this wave of Shenzhen Component refers to the market is 7585 points, looking vertically down from the K-line on this day, the corresponding upward trend line is near 7o17 points, 7585-7o17 = 568 points.
And this upward trend line has fallen below on December 12, the point below the trend line is about 7227 points, 7227-568 = 6659 points, this 6659 points, is the theoretical downside target.
According to the line drawing method of the guy's love of stock trading, it is connected with the low of 5855 points of the Shenzhen Component Index on November 7 and the low of 6596 points on December 2 to form an upward trend line. The vertical intersection of this ascending trend line with the rebound high of 7585 is at 6948, 7585-6948 = 637.
At the same time, this trend line was broken on December 22, and the point below the trend line was about 7396 points, 7396-637 = 6759 points, which is the theoretical downward target level, which is just a full 100 points different from the 6659 points calculated by Ding Xu.
All in all, Ding Xu and the guy love to speculate on the Shanghai Index's line drawing and calculation method of falling target, but there are certain differences on the drawing line and falling target of Shenzhen Component Index and Baotou Iron and Steel Rare Earth.
"Isn't the difference between buns and cents, and isn't it just a hundred points short? I think it's pretty much the same, what's there to argue about? Zhao Zheyi said disapprerovingly.
"That's a big difference!" Ding Xu Zhengse said, "Assuming I'm right, the guy is wrong, you have to wait until it falls below six yuan to buy the bottom, but the bun starts to rise at six yuan, you are likely to wait for the bun to fall below six yuan, and you may never get on the car again!" (To be continued!)
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