Chapter 127 Stock selection is like a beauty pageant
"You just said that you have extended the peak time of the bull market, mainly because of the lag between the volume and the sky. Is there any secondary reason for that? Hearing Ding Xu explain the mystery of the sky when the bull market peaked last year, the old naughty boy suddenly realized when he heard it, so he asked again.
"Well, there's a reason for that. After the 53o tragedy, there was a saying on the Internet that the market rose from 998 points to more than 4,000 points at that time, and the money-making effect was very obvious. At that time, there was a popular saying in the stock market, there are many people, money is stupid, come. ”
Ding Xu replied, "After the 53o tragedy, many stock prices that were originally high were suppressed, and this time, the enthusiasm of Chinese retail investors to buy the bottom was completely ignited and detonated, and they did not recognize the top made by institutions and big funds, so they flocked to the top, rushed to buy the bottom, and finally stopped the decline of the market, and regardless of the government's various negative suppression, directly pushed the market up to 6,000 points." ”
Professor Xie nodded again and again: "Well, that's right, there is such a statement. It is said that at that time, our Chinese aunts rushed into the stock market like they used to rush to buy gold and real estate, buying stocks with years of savings, just like buying Chinese cabbage, and eventually pushing the index up. The five months from June to January 2oo7 are also known as the only time that China's stock market was moved and dominated by retail investors, and it is said that at that time, institutions and main forces basically stood aside! ”
"Yes, I also remember that crazy retail market, many new investors just couldn't hold back in those months, rushed into the stock market, and became the most delicious leek girl and leek guy in the eyes of the main force." Zhao Zheyi also interjected. "But at the end of the day. In the end, retail investors still can't win institutions. Even if retail investors make money in the bull market, they still spit it out in this year's bear market, and we retail investors still lose in the end. ”
When Qi Fei heard this, he couldn't help but say, "So, Ding Xu, do you believe this statement?" ”
"I'm not convinced. After all, retail investors are retail investors, how can they really dominate the entire A-share market? Even if there are a few retail investors like Xu Xiang, it can't change this big situation. I think. At that time, it was still dominated by institutions, but because the government had begun to vigorously suppress the stock market after 4,000 points, it introduced various negative effects such as raising stamp duty. Of course, the agency is reluctant to let this feast that made them make a lot of money end, and the shipment has not ended, so they still want to pull up the shipment. It's just that they are worried that the top government will blame them for disobedience, so they find an excuse and put these responsibilities on the heads of retail investors. ”
Ding Xu replied, "Of course, the money-making effect was too obvious at that time. Retail investors have indeed invested money like crazy, which has played a great role in the rise of the broader market. It's just not the main role. You must know that before the 53O tragedy, it was all small and medium-cap stocks that rose well, and retail investors also entered these stocks before and after the 53O tragedy. After that, it was large-cap stocks and index stocks that were pulled up by institutions, known as the craziest elephant dance in history, which played the role of covering the shipment of small and medium-cap stocks. And most of the funds of retail investors at that time went into small and medium-cap stocks, how could they play a role in pulling up the index alone? ”
After listening to this analysis, Qi Fei was silent for a long time.
"Fall, why don't you answer? Is the group leader right? Jade Shadow asked.
"This guy, I can only say that he is simply a roundworm in the stomach of the main force......" After a long time, Qi Fei sighed with emotion, "Well, many people can't see this clearly, and they really think that it was a big market for retail investors in those months." But you should all remember that in those months, most of the small- and mid-cap stocks held by retail investors not only did not rise, but even fell, all of which made money on the index but did not make money. So what the truth is, it's about to come out! ”
"Alas, our retail investors are really miserable, obviously losing money, and in the end, they were deducted from their heads, and they took the infamy for the institution." Professor Xie Weihua said depressedly, "There are always people who say that we are too greedy and self-inflicted, but in fact, we are still cheated by institutions and the media that collude with institutions." ”
"Thank you, don't complain, it's useless, just learn a lesson in the future. Okay, tonight's lesson is basically over, and now we're going to start talking about individual stocks. Qi Fei made a very pure picture of a beautiful woman in the group.
As soon as they saw this beautiful picture, everyone was refreshed and their attention quickly focused.
Because Qi Fei once said that stock selection is like a beauty pageant, which determines whether the second half of your life is happy or not. So when he is beautiful, it means that he has to make a decision to buy and sell stocks.
Qi Fei first asked a question: "Whether it is the market, or the two stocks of Qianyuan Power and Baotou Iron and Steel Rare Earth, they have basically created a recent amount today." Ding Xu just gave everyone a lesson on sky-high prices, let's learn and use it, do you think there is a problem with the market and these two stocks? ”
"There should be a problem! After the sky, it is the sky-high price, so you must be careful. Cherish said immediately.
"Not necessarily, a strong stock like Qianyuan Power, there is a sky after the sky, and there is a sky after the sky!" The refueling bag said.
After listening to Qi Fei's question, the group members discussed it enthusiastically, but most of them were just a few words, and there was no systematic basis.
"There's something wrong with the broader market. After the Shanghai Composite Index peaked last year, it was basically a daily trading volume of six or seven billion, and if it was more, it would be more than 10 billion, and rarely more than 100 billion. Today suddenly passed 100 billion, if it keeps rising, it would be fine, but after two o'clock in the afternoon, the big dive, the volume fell sharply. This kind of tail volume diving is indeed dangerous, and this meteor line that rushes up and falls also indicates that it may be adjusted in the short term. ”
The guy loves to speculate on stocks and first said a more systematic view, "But then again, the Shanghai Composite Index has been falling and falling since May this year, and has been running below the 6O daily line, and basically has not touched the 6O daily line." On November 18 and 27, the Shanghai Composite Index finally touched the 6o daily line twice, but it did not rush through. And today directly gapped, opened above the 6o daily line, closed above the 6o daily line, and left a gap of 2o points, I think it is still relatively strong, and the market outlook should be able to reach a new high. ”
"Well, it's similar to my point of view, what about Baotou Steel Rare Earth and Qianyuan Power, what do you think, guy?" Qi Fei asked.
In this group, Qi Fei attaches the most importance to Ding Xu's opinions, followed by the opinions of the guys who love to speculate on stocks.
The guy loves to speculate on stocks and replied: "The bun hit the 6o daily line today, broke through the 6o daily line in the intraday, and the tail market dived and turned green." But I feel that today's recent high of 8.48 yuan will not be sky-high, because since July this year, the bun has been running below the 6O daily line, and now the short-term moving average has just gone well, and the 2O daily moving average has turned upward, and the main force should continue to operate upward. Today, since the intraday has broken through the 6o daily line of 8.23 yuan, it should not give up. I feel that there is still a high behind me, and I can wait for it to break through the 6o daily line before making a decision. ”
"Oh, what about Qianyuan Power?" Qi Fei asked again.
"You can't let me finish talking alone, can you?" The guy who loves to speculate on stocks smiled modestly and said.
"Then who is going to say Qianyuan Power?" Qi Fei actually likes this kind of communication atmosphere with a bit of an academic atmosphere.
Sora replied, "I'll come." Second brother, when you were in class two days ago, you talked about the problem of price increase and shrinkage, and Qianyuan Power is a typical example in the past few days. But today's sudden release of the recent amount of days is a bit abnormal. However, it continued to gap up today, directly breaking through the annual line, which is a short-forcing rise, and the intraday impact of the daily limit, but did not seal the board as a few days ago, so it is understandable that the trading volume is a little larger. ”
Ding Xu reminded: "The annual line is the last moving average above the stock price of Qianyuan Power, and the annual line is very important, don't you think it will step back on the annual line?" Or tossing back and forth around the year line? ”
"That's just speculation, the trend is one thing, guessing is another, and the market trend should prevail." Sora replied.
"Well, that's right, we don't need to guess too much, we just need to execute our take-profit plan and wait patiently for the appearance and confirmation of the selling point." Ding Xu nodded and agreed.
This night, the miracle group chatted all night around the issue of the amount and the sky-high price, and I felt that I benefited a lot.
Stock speculation is nothing more than the four words of copying the bottom and escaping the top, and if you grasp these four words, you can be invincible and make money.
And the sky-high price is inseparable from the escape from the top.
The group members found a lot of stock patterns, and the more they looked at it, the brighter they became, and they felt that they could finally keep up with the pace of the bookmaker.
In the face of sky-high prices, the whereabouts of the dealer cannot be escaped, and the shipment behavior cannot be hidden.
………………
(This chapter is a plus for a thousand dollars.) (To be continued!)
PS: Weekend Unraveling 2:
Due to the limitation of 5oo words, the last chapter could not be posted, and this chapter continues.
In my opinion, there are three bases for this round of market that began in July: First, the upcoming implementation of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is good, which stimulates the continuous upward movement of heavyweight stocks. Second, the P-fan index has risen for four consecutive months, and the trend of economic rebound has taken shape, making the stock market bottom out ahead of the fundamentals. The third is the registration system that will be implemented, which requires a round of artificial small bull market, and the increasingly loose capital can also support this round of small bull market. In addition, since 2o1o, it has been bearish for four years, and since 2oo8, it has been bearish.
Therefore, no matter how it is adjusted, the market is worry-free, and it is currently accumulating strength sideways, waiting for the rush, and the trend is very healthy.
At present, the key to stock selection is to choose stocks that are falling, have low stock prices and low valuations, as well as stocks with performance inflection points and favorable policies.
As for me personally, I am most bullish on non-ferrous metals as resource stocks, which are the most important sectors in this rally. Because of the economic upturn, the price of non-ferrous metals and other resources will definitely rise, and the prices of commodities such as nickel, zinc, and aluminum have shown an obvious upward trend, and it is estimated that the price of rare earth will also rise in the next step. That's why I've been holding O1O buns.
I feel that the buns are the same as the market, and they will not fill the gap, so I continue to wait patiently and let the profits run. At present, I continue to hold the buns with a full position, and I have added a little bit of financing.
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