Of course, although the moving average has an important reference role for buying and selling stocks, this effect is not absolute.

In fact, any kind of analysis method will not be absolute, and will be affected by the overall environment and external factors at that time, resulting in many uncertain unexpected trends, which is also the charm of stock trading.

Some technologists who like to modify the parameters believe that changing the traditional parameters of the moving average can prevent the bookmaker from cheating the line. If nothing changes, the main force uses the traditional moving average to deceive people, and retail investors will not be able to deal with it.

Ding Xu once consulted Qi Fei on this issue, but Qi Fei thought that it was a bit superfluous for the technologists to think about it like this. Because not every stock maker will create a deception line, deliberately creating a deception line, but will bring a lot of trouble to themselves.

The so-called deception line refers to the fact that the market maker uses the psychology of the superstitious technical analysis number and chart of the stockmakers to deliberately raise and suppress the index or stock price, so that the technical chart forms a graphic that can lead to buying and selling, so as to induce the investor to buy or sell. This deceptive nature results in a line pattern on a technical chart, commonly known as a deception line.

The most common method of deception is to use K-line, moving average, and trading volume to deceive the line, such as a large white candle to break through the important medium and long-term moving average, and break through the previous high, creating a new high.

In this case, technical investors usually think that there will be a considerable upward trend, so they follow the trend and buy.

But in fact, this is just a feint of the main force, and the trading volume is also made by the main force. After successfully luring investors to follow up, the main force will short-sell backhand and trap all the shareholders who follow the trend.

This is the most common type of scam line, known as a false breakout. It tends to be common on stocks that are pulling up quickly. Its typical feature is a continuous rise or even a limit. When the increase is close to double. Rest sideways for a few days, and then close the bullish candle in large quantities, hit a new high, and make an attack posture to launch a second wave of sharp pullup. Once the stockholders follow the trend and buy, the stock price will turn downward, and a big black stick will trap all the followers, and then the stock price will fall endlessly.

In addition to the false breakout. Pulling the tail plate is also a common way to cheat the line.

Some of the main players did not move much throughout the trading day, but in the minutes leading up the market close to the end, the main players used several large orders in a row to quickly push the stock price higher. If there is such a tail-end behavior for several days in a row, the purpose is obviously to make the closing price look better, so as to create a more beautiful technical pattern on the daily chart. If the stock price is already at a high level at this time, it is likely that the main force has entered the faction stage, and the main force has no intention of fighting, so it has reduced its position in the intraday for several consecutive days, and pulled the stock price up at the end of the market for several consecutive days. Second, after pushing the stock price higher, it can make room for continued distribution the next day.

Furthermore. When the stock price breaks through the triangle, flag, box and other consolidation postures, it is also easy to cheat the line.

In the actual operation of moving averages, there are many other ways to deceive the line.

For example, according to the operation rules of the moving average, if the moving average is flat and the stock price crosses the moving average, it is a buying opportunity; Conversely, if the moving average is flat and the stock price crosses below the moving average, it is a selling opportunity.

However, in the actual stock market, it is often the stock price that crosses the moving average for a day or two, and then returns below the moving average, and the stock price continues to go down its own trajectory; In the ascending channel, the stock price will often fall below the medium and long-term moving average under the deliberate pressure of external forces or the main force. However, when investors took profits according to the operational discipline, the stock price jumped up to the average again, and continued to attack, with huge gains, which made retail investors regret it and only hate themselves for getting off the car early.

In the 53o tragedy in 2oo7, many main forces used this method to throw retail investors away several streets.

"The banker's deception line is both our enemy and our friend." Qi Fei once concluded, "Many people want to make money with technical indicators, but they don't know much about it, and this kind of retail investor is the easiest to be deceived." But if you take the banker's deception line as the teacher's problem, constantly ponder the deception line, and finally improve your skills and be able to successfully defeat the deception line, then you will find a broad road to success, and it is very easy to make money. ”

It is precisely because of the characteristics of the deception line that the bookmaker generally uses the well-known K-line chart and moving average parameters, such as the 5-day, 1O-day, 2O-day, 3O-day, 6O-day, 12O-day, and 25O-day moving averages used by most retail investors. Otherwise, the effect of the stock price breaking through or falling below these moving averages will not be obvious, and the effect of deception will be much worse.

In this way, if the dealer follows the traditional moving average, they will not change the parameters of the moving average lightly and set a new moving average. Only when they are not using the traditional moving average for a certain period of time will they consider the strategy of using the new moving average.

However, this situation does not occur very often, because the history of China's stock market is not long, and there are not many retail investors who really understand technical analysis and can master the use of moving averages, and even many retail investors do not even know what moving averages are.

In this case, as long as the bookmaker operates according to the operation idea of the normal moving average, it is more than enough. Because they are dealing with most of the retail investors who are still in the early stages, not the small retail investors who are proficient in technical analysis.

As for the situation of deception, most of the market makers have unfortunately encountered strong opponents when operating individual stocks, such as some small and medium-sized institutions, private equity of floating capital, or a group of large households who are proficient in technical analysis. At this time, the dealer can no longer deal with them with the traditional moving average, and the dealer may continue to change the parameters and play a game of cat and mouse with these stocks.

Therefore, most of the main forces will not lightly modify the traditional moving average time parameters when operating individual stocks, and only a few will change and set a new moving average.

This is true for individual stocks, and even more so for the broader market.

After 2oo7 years of bull market expansion, today's market is not what it used to be, and the plate has become very large, and it is impossible for any main force to manipulate the market alone. Even if some major players join forces, it is very difficult to manipulate the weighted stocks to raise or lower the index and create a deceptive effect on the moving average.

After all, they have limited funds and limited capabilities. Moreover, there are both long and short market forces in the stock market, and not any main force can be freely controlled. Therefore, the market usually operates according to the internal law, so it is basically necessary to use the traditional moving average to judge the overall trend of the market, especially the medium and long-term trend, and basically do not have to worry about the main deception line.

Even for individual stocks, large-cap stocks are difficult to be cheated on, and only small- and mid-cap stocks are relatively easy to cheat.

Even so, the main force can only do things on the short-term moving average, and the long-term moving average is basically powerless.

Therefore, when retail investors buy and sell stocks, as long as they insist on looking at the short-term moving average, first look at how the long-term moving average is arranged, and grasp the overall trend, then even if the main force has deception behavior, it is not easy to be deceived by the main force.

In addition, if the retail investor is very skilled and familiar with the operation of the moving average, then even if you feel that the main force is cheating the line, you can see the problem and find a way to deal with it.

At this time, changing some different classical moving average parameters may help the current problem, but it must be the classic moving average parameters, rather than taking some time period parameters for granted. Because only the parameters that have been verified by many people to be correct or not are valid parameters, and they are also parameters that have been recognized by some market funds. Assuming that the 55-day line has a lot of technical factions that like, it is classic and effective, otherwise there is no market foundation, and it will not lead to the resonance of market funds.

In short, whether to change the parameters is just the appearance, the key is to grasp the substantive problem, grasp the mind of the main force, and see the purpose of the main force to deceive the line, whether to create a fake breakthrough to lure retail investors to take over, or some other purpose.

Therefore, under Qi Fei's Jianyì, Ding Xu generally only uses common moving average parameters.

Ding Xu believes that the fluctuation of stock prices actually reflects the psychological fluctuations of shareholders. When this psychological fluctuation reaches a certain level, it may cause the stock price to rise and fall sharply.

Most of the investors use the common moving average parameters with 5 as a multiple, including stock commentators and analysts who analyze the trend of the market and individual stocks, and basically use these common moving averages as the basis for analysis. In this case, the psychological pressure of falling below the 1O daily line is bound to be greater than the pressure of falling below the 7-day line, and the resulting stop-loss behavior should also increase accordingly, so the impact on the stock price will be greater.

Market makers must also consider the psychological fluctuations of retail investors, pay attention to these common moving average support and moving average pressure, and must protect the disk at some common moving averages. In order to avoid falling below the average line, the average cost of retail holdings, the phenomenon of killing more will appear, thereby disrupting the trading plan of the market maker.

Therefore, Ding Xu insisted on using the most commonly used set of moving average parameters, believing that such a practical effect should be better.

Because of this, as soon as Tao Xia said the 55-day line, Ding Xu sternly told her, not that the 55-day line is better than the 6o daily line.

It's a pity that Ding Xu was too involved, so he didn't realize that he was babbling such a big thing, but Tao Xia listened to it all the time.

However, after he finished saying this, he asked vigorously: "Tao Xia, do you understand?" ”

"Understood, understood, I'm going to class, goodbye!" Tao Xia responded, and then quickly hung up the phone. She glanced at the female bodyguard not far away, whose face was expressionless, but her eyes were faintly curious, and muttered softly hatefully, "Ding Xu, you are a piece of wood!" ”

Miss Tao is eighteen this year, beautiful as a flower, and her family is luxurious, but it is a pity that her parents are strongly restrained and have never talked about her boyfriend.

Not only that, but Tao Xia never even talked to a boy on the phone for ten minutes.

Today is also her first time.

However, there were at least nine and a half minutes of content, which made Tao Xia want to vomit when he listened to it......

What kind of hilarious memories should this be?

Tao Xia couldn't laugh or cry.

"Stock gods? I think it's almost the same as changing the name to a stock idiot! Tao Xia bit her lip hatefully. (To be continued!)

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