"The guy's analysis of the three forces of the national team is really refreshing, but it doesn't mean that it will rise tomorrow."

Ding Xu shook his head and said, "Because when the rebound a few days ago, Qi Fei and I had the same worries, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index have been running close to the lower rail of the rising channel, and the Shenzhen Component Index has not been able to return to the rising channel, and the Shanghai Composite Index is also about to break at any time." If the national team really wanted to make a move, it should have pulled the index up a long time ago, out of the danger zone of the lower track, to avoid the break, instead of waiting until the break to save it, because the price to pay is greater, unless ......"

"Unless what?" Glory Years asked.

"Unless you want to do another double bottom, so I deliberately don't protect the disk, and I am ready to take advantage of the opportunity of the market to break and the second bottom, and then suck some chips in." Ding Xu replied.

"I don't agree. If the position is not broken, the fund of the disk protection is unknown, that is, after the position is broken, the role of the disk protection fund can be reflected. The guy loves to speculate in stocks and still disagrees with Ding Xu's statement.

"But the first few times, whether it was the critical moment when the market hit the 3O day or the 6O day moving average, the national team took real money out to pull the index to rush the pass, and the senior management also issued relevant benefits in a timely manner."

Ding Xu retorted seriously, "And this time, the Shenzhen Component Index is about to hit the 12o daily line." Since falling below this bull-bear dividing line on January 22 this year, the Shenzhen Component Index has never touched the 12o daily line again. The high of 7585 points on December 9 was the closest to the 12o daily line, and then it fell sharply for a few days. Last Friday again almost touched the 12o daily line, but today it started to fall again! ”

"What does that mean?" Glory Years asked.

"It stands to reason that the half-year line is so important. Not only should it be prone. All kinds of mysterious funds should also have a big move. Lead the market to rush through. But in fact, during this time, the small and medium-sized board has been active, the main board is silent, and the high-level has not introduced a good one, which is very abnormal! As I said at the weekend, this is the calm before the storm, and then it will change. And today, the market is starting to change downward. I feel like it's a storm that has already begun! Ding Xu replied.

After the close of the day, Ding Xu and the guy love to speculate on stocks have a strict disagreement about tomorrow's going and staying.

Both of them are the core figures of the miracle group, and once there is a disagreement, the group members are a little confused.

Of course, Qi Fei supports Ding Xu, and the glorious years support the guy who loves to speculate in stocks, but from a heavyweight point of view, Qi Fei's weight is obviously much heavier than that of the glorious years, after all, he is a professional analyst. Recently, he has also used a few beautiful short-term operations to win a reputation in the miracle group.

Therefore. In the end, many group friends decided to follow the steps of Ding Xu and Qi Fei, reduce their positions or even clear their positions tomorrow according to the situation, and wait for the market to pull back to near the falling target level before buying.

And some other group members are still undecided, not knowing who to listen to.

Unconsciously, it was more than seven o'clock in the evening, and Ding Xu and the guy were still arguing in the group about stock speculation.

At this time, Zhao Zheyi, who was chatting and watching the news broadcast, suddenly looked up to the sky and laughed wildly, and then announced in the miracle group: "Hahaha, you don't have to argue, the market will rise sharply tomorrow, and it is guaranteed to return to the rising channel!" ”

"What's wrong? Profitable? Ding Xu was excited and hurriedly asked.

"Miracles are still very sensitive! That's right, as I said in the news broadcast just now, it's good to be good and the interest rate has been cut! Zhao Zheyi said with a smile.

"Huh?" Ding Xu said in surprise, "It's really a rate cut, and there has been no news of this rate cut when it rebounded a few days ago, but it was chosen when the stock market just began to break down today, it seems that the senior management really doesn't want the stock market to fall!" ”

The year 2oo8 is coming to an end, and the Spring Festival is approaching, and the stock market has finally ushered in another positive one, cutting interest rates again.

From December 23, 208, the benchmark interest rate of one-year RMB deposits and loans will be lowered by 27 percentage points each, and the benchmark interest rates of deposits and loans of other maturity grades will be adjusted accordingly. At the same time, the central bank will lower the interest rates on relending and rediscounting. From December 25, 208, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions will be lowered by 8.5 percentage points.

This time the interest rate cut is mainly due to the central bank's reaction after the United States lowered interest rates to a record low of O~O.25% a week ago.

This action of the central bank can be regarded as expected. This is because the European market, including the Hong Kong market, has reacted to the US interest rate cut and closely followed the US interest rate cut, mainly because of the peg effect between interest rates. Therefore, it is reasonable for the central bank to follow the US interest rate cut, which is expected by market funds.

Of course, compared with the central bank's direct interest rate cut of 1o8 points on November 26, this time the action is smaller. Because when the interest rate was cut in November, the central bank took into account the fact that the CPI continued to decline sharply in November and the surrounding markets continued to cut interest rates, which had a certain degree of foresight.

However, because the economic figures fell faster than expected, and the surrounding markets cut interest rates urgently, the central bank had to cut interest rates again this time, but by a smaller amount, and the reserve cuts were larger, mainly taking into account the bank interest rate differentials.

"Yes, in fact, as early as November, after the sharp interest rate cut, the management's attitude of making every effort to save the real economy has been very clear, and investors' expectations for the economy have also been greatly strengthened, which has led to this wave of strong rebound." The guy loves to speculate in stocks, and he is rarely a little excited, "This shows that the bull market is coming!" ”

"Oh? How so? Ding Xu asked curiously.

"In fact, it is not difficult to understand that according to the law of the economic cycle of credit easing and tightening, the asset price cycle can basically be divided into six stages...... "The guy loves to speculate on stocks and said with a smile.

According to the classification of young guys who love to speculate in stocks, in the first stage, credit began to relax, but due to lack of confidence, only the bond market was in a bull market at this time, and the stock table was relatively poor, and some leading industries may begin to show it.

In the second stage, only the commodity market is a bear market, the attractiveness of bonds begins to decline compared to the first stage, and equity assets begin to perform well.

In the third stage, every market is a bull market.

In the fourth stage, bonds begin to fall, while stocks and commodities remain bullish.

In the fifth stage, inflationary pressures increase, and only commodity markets are bullish.

In the sixth stage, the credit crunch, the demand falls, inflation falls, and no market is in a bull market, cash is king.

Judging from the recent table of the domestic capital market, the current A-share market should be in the process of the first stage to the second stage, that is, the stock market has begun to have a good performance and is ready to enter the stage of a bull market.

In order to prove his point, the guy loves to speculate in stocks and reviewed the history of recent months - since September after the country entered the cycle of interest rate cuts, the first to rise was bonds, the treasury bond index once rose by more than 5.15%, during which the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 26%.

In terms of bulk commodities, since September, international oil prices have fallen by more than 6o%, and copper and aluminum have also fallen by more than 4o%.

From this point of view, combined with the policy strength of the previous management after the first quarter of O9, then the cumulative effect of the positive will appear, then it is a medium and long-term positive for A-shares. After all, from the perspective of the discount rate, the current price of a stock is a discount to future cash flow expectations, and the stock price is expected to improve after investors' expectations for the economy improve.

"All in all, I think this interest rate cut is mainly a passive measure of the central bank to follow the world, but from the perspective of the overall cycle of credit currency, China has carried out the first and second phases of the combination period, which is conducive to the development of cash flow, and the stock price is the fold line of cash flow, so the medium and long term is good for A shares."

Speaking of which, the guy loves to speculate in stocks and came to his own conclusion, but then, the topic changed lightly and said a conclusion that surprised everyone, "However, in the short term, just an expected interest rate cut is not enough to make the market break through, but it is easy to become an opportunity for funds to cash out and leave the market, so it is likely to open high and go low tomorrow!" (To be continued!)

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