January 19, 2oo9 is a day that makes many retail investors entangled. ∴，←.2¤3x.netbsp; This is the last trading week before the Chinese New Year, and the market will be closed in five days. Whether it is to hold shares for the holiday and prepare to continue to receive red envelopes in the Spring Festival red envelope market, or to lock in profits and hold coins for the festival to prevent some risks caused by sudden bearishness, including the decline caused by some large funds withdrawing funds due to the pressure of repaying debts at the end of the year.

On this day, there was a high-level executive to promote the downside of deepening the reform of the banking system, which made retail investors worry that the high-level would soon re-sell stocks. But the state affairs. Zhang, director of the Research Center of the Academy of Sciences, said that the current round of economic correction should not be too long, China's economy is fully qualified to take the lead in rebounding among the world's major economies, and at the same time, CIC has recently increased its stake in Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, both of which have reassured market funds.

Overall, the positives outweigh the negatives, and the newly elected black president of the United States, O. O. Bama released the president's new economic plan after taking office, the U.S. stock market rose sharply, so A-shares also jumped high, and PetroChina, which has always been very weak, also went against the norm and took the lead, rushing five points at 10:20 in the morning, so that the retail investors who held the stock cried with joy and high-fived, saying that PetroChina has stood up since then.

However, the applause was still in the ears, PetroChina quickly weakened, and the rise quickly fell back to two or three points, and the Shanghai Index, which had been driven by heavyweight stocks, has rushed to 2o18 points, and quickly fell from a 3.3% increase to a 2.18% increase, falling to 1997 points, breaking the 2ooo point mark again.

And Baotou Iron and Steel Rare Earth today is also contrary to the strength of the previous few days, a wave of straight line up. After a slight spike higher. Then he began to perform high diving. Xun fell from a rise of more than 2 points until it turned green, falling by one or two points, which made everyone a little nervous.

"I don't think the market is good, from 1664 points to now, it has only risen so much in a few months, and it can't even stand at the 2,000-point mark. I think there is a risk of falling back, and I will fall to 1664 points again! Y performance stocks couldn't sit still, frowned, and said, "Miracle, I think the bull market you said may not come." The buns have doubled, it's time to be content, and the New Year is coming soon, so I think it's better to sell the buns and lock in the profits. After the year, we will look at the situation and decide whether to enter the market again. ”

"yes. I don't think it's good. Why do I think Baozi is walking a fishing line today? Straight line up, and then wave by wave fall, a bit like shipping. The book walker also chimed in, "Why don't we sell the buns and hold the coins for the festival, and feel more at ease." ”

"I don't agree to sell steamed buns, and it finally went from more than five yuan to more than 11 yuan, and I still want to cover it to 22 yuan and double it." Jade Shadow shook her head.

"Brother Jiyou, the reason why you sold the buns is because it has doubled, and you are afraid that the market will fall back again. Brother Walker, you want to sell buns because today's trend is like a fishing line. As for Sister Yu, because she wants to return to her capital, she fantasizes that the stock price can double again. ”

After listening to everyone's words, Ding Xu smiled bitterly, "Actually, I have said several times before that trading should be as cold as ice!" We don't have feelings for stocks, we just need feelings for buying and selling points. Let's not have illusions about how high a stock can go. Or unwarranted fear, worrying about where the stock price will fall again. ”

"Why?" Jade Shadow asked.

"Because where the stock price rises and falls, in fact, is designed in advance by the main force, so that is the main thing, and it will never be really guessed by most retail investors. Since we can't guess, let's operate according to more reliable indicators, such as chip bars, MACD and other indicators, sell if we meet the selling requirements, buy if we meet the buying requirements, and just treat it as an assembly line operation. ”

Ding Xu explained, "Unless you have sufficient technical evidence to judge the mystery inside." The problem is that many people do not have excellent technology, so we retail investors should not fantasize, do not be greedy and fearful, do not act rashly, do not buy and sell by feeling, there must be a basis for buying and selling, otherwise never mess with their money and stocks, so that they can often avoid the main design of the retail pit. ”

"Then you used to copy the bottom buns, but now you refuse to sell the buns, where is the technical basis?" "I've heard you talk a lot about the fundamentals, such as the four trillion economic stimulus policy, bull-bear conversion, etc., but I want to know what indicators you look at technically to draw conclusions." ”

"It's very simple, in fact, in addition to looking at the K-line moving average and volume, I basically only look at one indicator, the MACD indicator. Because the Shanghai Composite Index has continued to fall before bottoming out at 1664 points, the MACD indicator has formed a number of bottom divergences in a row, with the green column at the bottom higher than the bottom, and the yellow and white lines are getting higher and higher. ”

Ding Xu said with a smile, "In addition, before Baotou Iron and Steel rare earth bottomed out, it also formed a strict bottom divergence, indicating that it has also bottomed out." So after I finished the second game of China Railway, I took advantage of the fact that the buns had not risen sharply, and hurriedly bought a full position. Because this bottom divergence indicates that the bottom has been reached, at least it is safe to buy. And now, the bun has evolved from a weak golden fork to a strong golden fork, and the red column is constantly increasing, so naturally it is not the time to sell it, because there is no birthday line divergence. ”

"Miracle, what are you talking about? Why don't I understand it at all, what a deviation, a golden fork and a silver fork, I fork! "Y performance stocks are a bit of a big head.

"Yes, miracle, you tell us about the deviation, I often hear about the deviation, I just don't understand it." Xiaofan also said.

"Well, it is very important to deviate from this matter, and it is also an important basis for deciding where to buy and sell stocks, so I'll tell you about it." Ding Xu nodded and said with a smile.

The so-called divergence, also known as divergence, refers to when a stock or index continues to hit new lows (highs) in the process of falling or rising, and some technical indicators do not follow the new lows (highs) and deviate from the original normal track. In other words, when things go wrong, there must be demons.

The so-called top divergence means that the upward trend slows down, and it is difficult for the index or stock price to stabilize at a high level, and even has the opportunity to turn around and fall; If this happens, investors should sell as soon as possible.

The bottom divergence, which means that the decline is about to end, and the index or stock price has begun to bottom out, which is a buy signal.

1. Volume-price relationship: volume and price should be matched, and trading volume is an important basis for judging the top and bottom, which can help investors escape safely before the peak is reached, and bravely intervene when the bottom is reached (use VO1 instead of A to touch, after all, the higher the stock price, the greater the turnover, which cannot reflect how many shares are traded, VO1 is still more reasonable.) Of course, when looking at the turnover of the market, you can see a touch. If the stock price hits a new high, but the trading volume continues to shrink, and the volume and price diverge, it is easy to peak. Because volume comes before price, in a long market, volume usually precedes price. And the volume usually can't fool people.

1. When the price hits a new high, there must be an amplification of energy on the disk to confirm, otherwise it is a red flag, and the upward trend may be terminated at any time. The more divergences there are, the more likely they are to turn around. At the same time, it is normal for the price to shrink in the middle of the rise, and it is easy to peak if there are many abnormal price declines.

2. When the stock price rises slowly and gradually increases, and finally explodes, the volume and price soar (commonly found in good and concept stocks), and the volume and price fall sharply, which is a fast exhaustion trend.

Second, MACD is based on the principle of moving average construction, the closing price of the stock is smoothed, and the trend indicator has the trend of the moving average, stability, stability, etc., and the buy and sell signals are more accurate and simpler than the moving average.

There are two types of golden crosses (golden crosses), above and below the zero line, and there are also two types of dead crosses (death crosses), above and below the zero line. The continuous elongation of the red column indicates that it is in a wave of bullish market, until the red column can no longer be extended and begins to shorten, and you can consider selling. The continuous elongation of the green column indicates that it is in a wave of bearish market and is a sell signal. Buy should not be considered until the green bar is unable to continue to elongate and there is a shortening trend.

When the weak golden cross, the yellow and white lines run down at the same time in the lower area away from the zero line for a long time, and the DIF line begins to run sideways or slowly hooks up to approach DEA and then breaks through the DEA line upward, it means that after a period of decline and consolidation at a low level, the stock price will begin to rebound upward, which is a short-term buy signal. This weak golden cross only indicates that a rebound may occur, and does not mean that the downtrend has ended, and the stock price may continue to repeat and produce a new round of decline. It should be approached with caution and used in conjunction with other technical indicators.

Strong golden cross: When the yellow and white lines are running in the area near the zero axis, the white line breaks through the yellow line from bottom to top, indicating that after a period of rising and finishing at a high or low level, the stock price will start a new round of relatively large upward market, which is a good time to buy stocks. Note three points, one is that the stock price rose slightly at the bottom, and after a short period of sideways consolidation, and then the stock price broke through the medium-term moving average upward, and at the same time, when the MACD appeared this kind of golden cross, it was a long-term buy signal. Second, when the stock price is started from the bottom, there has been a round of relatively large upward market, and after a relatively long period of median retracement on the way up, and then the stock price turns upward again, and at the same time, MACD appears this golden cross, which is a short-term buy signal. Third, for this kind of golden cross, you should pay attention to its early gains (including the index and MACD), if it is too high to form such a golden cross, it may be a bullish trap (especially when accompanied by divergence). ）

General golden cross: when the yellow and white lines are running in the area above the zero line, if the white line turns around below the yellow line and breaks through the yellow line from the bottom to the top, it means that the stock price has started a new round of rally after a period of high retracement, which is the second buy signal, and you can increase your position.

"The m-head double top pattern of the red bar (one top is lower than the other) indicates a decline, so pay attention to the timing of selling. The bottom pattern of the green bar (one bottom is higher than the other) indicates a rise, so pay attention to the timing of buying. Ding Xu explained. (To be continued!)

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