readx;?“ Like not? Wang Qinian smiled and pointed to the K-line chart on the big screen. Pen? Interesting? Pavilion wWw. ｂiquge。 info [full text reading]

"Like what?" Zhang Wei asked puzzled.

"Reminder, 2004 Hong Kong stocks!" Wang Qinian smiled but did not speak.

"Tencent?!" Zhang Wei suddenly realized.

"Well, it's not just Tencent, after the collapse of the Internet bubble in the past, although many junk Internet companies really delisted and went bankrupt. However, there is also some gold, NetEase, Tencent and many other Internet companies, which have been firmly sold by investors, are competing to see who can run faster, and they all fell below the issue price, and the result is ......," Wang Qinian said with a smile.

As an emerging industry, the Internet industry has huge profit opportunities and the possibility of huge losses. For example, after the bursting of the NASDAQ bubble, the vast majority of bubbles were actually delisted or bankrupt, and the survivors did not account for the majority.

As a result, Chinese concept stocks were later sold off by speculators who were frightened. For example, NetEase, Sina, Sohu, etc., which were listed in the United States at that time, did not know their mothers. Not only did it fall below the issue price, it fell below its net assets, and some stock prices even fell to the point where the cash per share was much higher than the stock price. The extreme plunge was followed by a large number of 100 baggers and dozens of baggers.

Tencent's IPO was the end of the dot-com bubble, and speculators began to regain confidence and buy some wrongly killed internet stocks. Even so, Tencent's listing first fell below the issue price, and it was sluggish for more than a year, and then began a hundredfold process.

To put it simply, a good company needs to have a good price. Under normal circumstances, a good company cannot be cheap. However, speculators panic selling, and this herd effect, can make the stock prices of good companies fall as well.

The domestic A-share market is relatively immature, for example, there are some deformed rules, and new listings rarely fall below the issue price. Over the years, has been hitting new investors. The return on investment may surpass that of Warren Buffett and also surpass the growth of China's property market. The listing of new shares is almost equivalent to winning the lottery in the A-share market, and whoever wins the lottery has almost a 99% probability of making money. Basically. Speculators are not discussing whether the new shares will fall below the issue price, but whether the new shares will rise several times or dozens of times.

In overseas mature markets, it is normal for new listings to fall below the issue price. Even some good companies are often sold off as soon as they go public because investors are distracted. caused a fall below the issue price.

Theoretically, it should not fall below the issue price of 38 yuan. After all, the bubble in the global capital market in 2012 was not very large, and the pricing of the listing should be a relatively reasonable price after the multi-party game. Even if it is temporarily overestimated, the overestimation is limited.

"Tencent is about to rise 100 times, and NetEase is hundreds of times!" Zhang Wei smiled, "However, at that time, their market value was only a few hundred million dollars, so. After falling below the issue price, there is a huge space! I'm afraid that FB can't do it, now that it's tens of billions of dollars in market capitalization, how much room can there be? ”

"There are several times!" Wang Qinian has no doubts.

The Internet is a winner-takes-all, and companies such as Tencent and Baidu occupy a leading position in the Chinese market and occupy a large part of the market, and it will be difficult for latecomers to snatch their cake. It's hard for a company of the same kind to rise!

FB has a leading position in many markets such as North America and Europe. The future is not daring to say. FB will always be the mainstream, but the English-speaking market is its basic market, and the hegemony can continue for many years. In other language markets, there will be challengers. Needless to say, there will be no market for American social platforms in China. Many social giants from all over the world have come to China and hit the streets one after another, because China's local Internet companies are too strong.

Not only Chinese Internet giants, but also their American counterparts.

Even. In the future, even some social platforms in Japan and South Korea can even occupy the mainstream in the local market, such as platforms such as Japan and 2ch.

In the social market, American companies have not had the same business as portals, browsers, search, etc. in the early Internet era, and have grabbed the market.

Why Social? Because, social networking is easier to localize, acquaintance, and word-of-mouth.

For example, QQ was contemptuously regarded as China's local turtle social software by some white-collar workers working in foreign companies in the past, and they preferred to use MSN to reflect their * personality. Then, whether it's work or chatting with acquaintances, you can't do it at MSN. Eventually, people realized that MSN didn't have any room to survive in China, because everyone around them used QQ, but you don't use QQ, so why use it to communicate with them online.

There are also European ones, which are also aggressively entering the Chinese market. But I was taught by the TT voice of the current partner company.

Later, a person wrote a book "The Second Brother Must Die", which generally illustrates a truth, you don't become the boss on the territory of this street, you have the most little brothers, and collect the most protection fees, even if you are the second child in this territory, it is easy to get angry in the rivers and lakes and be killed. Only the boss with a consolidated position will still be able to stand tall in the cruel competition of the past.

Therefore, in the Internet era, we must become the boss of the market segment. Otherwise, it's no fun!

If you become the second child, you may fall behind and be eliminated from the market at any time!

At present, in many countries and markets around the world, it should be the leader of social networking sites.

This status of the rivers and lakes determines that it has a moat, and now if it falls below the issue price to buy, it will definitely not be fooled and will not suffer losses!

Of course, the investment is purely a financial investment, since May 2012, falling below $30, the small partner financial holding company has firmly increased its holdings every trading day. Of course, since the amount of purchases per day is relatively small, each trading day is only a million dollar position. Basically, it belongs to the practice of buying more and more on the left side, and this practice should definitely be a mode of opening endless bullets, constantly increasing holdings, ensuring that it has been buying, and buying more and more when it falls.

The investment on the left side needs to be combined with the concept of value investment. Otherwise, what's the difference with speculating on the right side?

The more you fall, the more you buy, you need to "invent" a model of infinite bullets, and there will always be money to buy. Fortunately, this model was decades ago. It has been written by Graham in "The Smart Investor".

Graham's approach to the infinite bullet is a scientific position control - a static rebalancing between "50% capital and 50% equity". and dynamic rebalancing between "25%~75% of stock positions".

Among them, static rebalancing is suitable for amateur investors, as well as humble investors who think they are limited in their abilities but are in fact wise and foolish.

Dynamic rebalancing, on the other hand, is more suitable for very professional and experienced investors.

Two approaches. The former stock position is always 50%, so if it falls below 50% and buy a little more, let the position go back to 50%, therefore. Although the bear market is endless, investors with limited funds can also buy endless bullets. The reason is that the stock has risen, more than 50% has been reduced, and the stock has fallen below 50% to buy. There will always be money to buy. At the same time, this mode can achieve high throwing and low suction without using any brains. Because, when it is high, the position has risen by more than 50%, and it is naturally high. The higher the reduction position, the lower the position. When it is low, the position is too much lower than 50%, and it is naturally low, so buy in this way and let the position recover to 50%, which is low absorption. In fact, this static equilibrium is also dynamic, but it is more static than the latter, which does not limit the specific proportion of the position.

As for the dynamic rebalancing of "25% and 75% positions". It is more of an investor's experience. However, since the maximum position is limited to 75%, even if the bear market continues to buy the bottom, it will continue to cover the position until 75% of the position is the limit. In this way, when the position is below 75%, there will still be bullets to buy. No, after 100% buying, there is no money to make up for the position if it falls again. As for bull market deleveraging, there are also restrictions. A minimum reduction of 25% means that you will never be able to reduce your position.

Static position balancing, or dynamic position balancing. Essentially, it is to ensure that the strategy of buying the left side of the investment can be done forever, with limited funds but surprisingly unlimited bullets. It avoids that some investors, because they feel that they have "bottomed out", and as a result, they buy full positions. But in reality, it was far from bottoming, and he was depressed because he could only look at cheaper stocks but had no cash to buy them.

Warren Buffett thought that his teacher's approach was too inefficient, and he invested in Graham's way in the early days. Later, he bought an insurance company and collected insurance funds every year as a floating deposit that could be invested. In this way, his pattern of endless cash bullets is less constrained. When you buy, you can use a larger bucket to catch the gold that keeps falling.

Although the small partner company does not have its own insurance company to obtain "floating deposit", many of its own businesses are making money continuously, which is essentially a kind of floating deposit.

Even, the way of issuing some perpetual bonds by partner companies, although the cost is slightly higher. But fortunately, you never have to repay the principal, and only pay interest every year, which is naturally similar to Warren Buffett's "floating deposit"!

……

"It's almost a bottomless pit!" Zhang Wei couldn't help complaining that in more than ten trading days, he had bought more than $20 million in stocks, but he lost more than $2 million.

"Just keep buying at the current pace." Wang Qinian said, "If the market value of buying exceeds $1 billion, or if the stock price rises above the issue price, stop buying!" ”

It will take at least the third quarter of next year to return to the issue price above $38. Subsequently, many investors who cut R found themselves in the short, and after that, it rose more than fivefold from the bottom, showing that even the big stupid elephant can still run wild.

Of course, the U.S. government has been engaged in quantitative easing for several years to release water to the world. Under this kind of flood, there must be countless big bull stocks that have risen more than they are.

However, although the growth period of the circle of users has passed, the future should be to copy Tencent's profitability in the past, and even, Wang Qinian feels that maybe the future profitability can surpass Tencent. After all, the majority of Tencent's users are in China, and the size of its users is comparable to that of Tencent, but more than the average number of users are in developed countries.

Theoretically, the annual profit of Tencent is three times or five times, which is also a high probability event.

As for it, I have been investing my money without dividends. This question...... Wang Qinian is not thinking so long-term.

The rate of growth and prospects are undeniable, but it puts most of its money into investment and expansion rather than giving back to investors.

If a company can keep its money in its own hands and invest it, it will always be better than paying dividends to shareholders. Well, probably the ideal state. But unfortunately, there are many enterprises that have accumulated a lot of profits, and have taken out their profits to invest, and have been stingy with dividends, and finally, when it is very large, it began to fall into huge losses and even bankruptcy.

For example, when Apple went public, it has not paid dividends. The result...... The money earned is almost seventy-seven-eighty-eight. If Apple was listed and held from the 70s to the 90s, investors would be angry that this company, which has been stingy and does not pay dividends, actually lost all the money, and if it was distributed to them, the dividends would have paid for themselves long ago, and the remaining stocks would have been purely earned.

Apple, of course, did not go bankrupt, and was almost on the verge of bankruptcy, please return to Jobs. As a result, Steve Jobs recreated Apple, saving it not only from the brink of bankruptcy, but also hitting the world's most valuable tech stock at an astonishing rate.

In recent years, Apple's shareholders have learned the lesson of the past and demanded that Apple must pay dividends. Therefore, Apple investors can now recover their investment costs by paying dividends. When the capital is earned, it doesn't matter if the remaining shares are worthless.

Just like Apple at the beginning, the money earned will not be dividends, and it will continue to be used for investment. If you've been developing in the right direction, it's great. But...... Historically, countless companies that do not pay dividends are not necessarily better than those that pay high dividends. Many of these enterprises did not take dividends, but used the money to invest blindly, but as a result, they fell into bankruptcy.

To the book is still a stingy enterprise that does not pay dividends. However, at that time, the stock price was also at its peak, and selling could be a huge profit.

Anyway, this investment is a typical financial investment.

For three years, billions of dollars in profits, this is a very big R, do not eat this very certain R, Wang Qinian is sorry for his conscience as a capitalist. (To be continued.) )