December 12 is a Black Friday.

On this day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets both opened low, of which the Shanghai Composite Index gapped, down at 2o14 points, down O.84%, and the Shenzhen Component Index gapped, opened at 73o4 points, down O.77%.

After that, the Shanghai finger hit up to 2o23 points, and the Shenzhen Cheng pointed up to 7338 points, and then they both turned down, shocked and fell, all the way down. The Shanghai Composite Index left a downward gap of 2o23-2o28 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index left a downward gap of 7338-7354 points.

For a time, the heavyweight stocks were all green.

And the bulls also seem to have lost the will to resist, allowing the index to cross below the 1o daily line.

The agricultural sector has become the biggest force to kill today, and the diving is surprising. Although there are a lot of buying orders piled up below several major bank stocks, showing that there is a certain strength to protect the disk, these buying orders did not take the initiative to attack upward, but only tried to keep the key prices and not let these prices be lightly penetrated.

In this case, the disk is naturally very dull, there are almost no stocks with a daily limit, and there is no hot spot at all, the trust sector rose against the trend, but it was only a general rise, and there was no leading stock, so it did not play an effective role in pulling the disk.

And at the same time, incense. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also gapped, and then began a unilateral downward journey, and by 10:20, the decline had reached 2.48%. By noon, it had fallen by 6.9o%.

"I was wrong, today's downward gap, it is estimated that it will not be filled in the short term, which is somewhat similar to an island reversal. It's a bit of a big hassle. I'm afraid you're going to have to think about shipping! "At 12 noon. Qi Fei, who had been silent all morning, finally called Ding Xu.

"What, island reversal?" Ding Xu was taken aback and hurriedly asked, "No, isn't it true that the upward gap on December 8 has been filled on December 1o?" ”

The so-called island reversal is a special combination of gaps that often occur at the top or bottom of a long-term or medium-term trend. Indicates a reversal of a trend and is usually divided into island splits at the top and bottom.

When the stock price continues to rise, there is a gap one day, and then the stock price hovers at a high level, and soon the stock price falls in the form of a downward gap, and this falling gap and the upward gap are basically near the horizontal position of the same price area.

In this way, from the K-line chart, the stock price during this period is clearly divided into two parts. The middle is separated by two notches on the left and right, making the candlestick in the upper part of the chart. Like an island far from the coast, this is the island reversal pattern at the top.

On the contrary, in the process of continuous decline, the stock price suddenly gaps low on a certain day to leave a falling gap, and the stock price continues to fall in the following days, but the stock price falls to a certain low point and suddenly turns around, the stock price rises, and finally gaps upwards and rises. And this upward gap and the previous downward gap are basically near the horizontal position of the same price area. On the candlestick chart, the left and right gaps make the area of low contention look like an island shape away from the coast, which is the island reversal pattern at the bottom.

Ding Xu had discussed this gap pattern with Qi Fei, and specifically analyzed the large island reversal from April to June 2oo8, so he was very impressed.

In April 2oo8, when the market fell from a high of 6124 points to 299o points, the public opinion that the market bottomed out was overwhelming, and the market began to rebound. Later, stimulated by the bailout, the Shanghai Composite Index opened sharply on April 23, leaving a huge gap of 165 points at 3296-3461 points, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets almost closed with a daily limit on the same day.

After that, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded all the way to 3,786 points, an increase of 26%. However, to the great disappointment of many retail investors, the Shanghai Composite Index began to go all the way down, although there were many rebound positive lines during the period, but the center of gravity of the index was lowered all the way, and finally fell sharply on June 1o, closing out of a huge gap of 97 points at 3215-3312 points, a decline of 7.73% on the day.

These two gaps are basically near the horizontal position of the same price area, of which 3296-3312 points are the overlapping gap positions, and there is no trading between these 16 points, which can be described as filling the gap with the gap, leaving the investors who traded from April 24 to June 6 on a large island, waiting for the PLA to come ashore to rescue them.

And the power of this island reversal is very great, after which the Shanghai Composite Index fell all the way to 1664 points before starting to rebound, falling by 5o%.

It has been more than half a year since the island-shaped reversal, but there is still a long way to go before those two gaps are made, and I don't know when it will take to fill them.

That's the power of island reversal!

From the perspective of investment psychology, the reason for the reversal of the top island is that the price of a certain stock is rising, so that investors who originally wanted to buy at a low level cannot eat at the predetermined price, and the continuous upward trend makes it difficult for these investors to bear the pain of stepping short, and finally can't help but grab in regardless of the price, so a rising gap is formed.

But at this time, the stock price is close to the top, and it has begun to stagnate at a high level, fluctuate sideways, and increase the selling pressure. After a period of scrambling, the main force and prescient institutions rushed to flee first, forming a downward gap, market confidence began to collapse, and stock prices began to fall for a long time. And a large number of chips were trapped in the falling gap, and he reluctantly started the journey of survival on the island.

However, Ding Xu does not think that it is now an island reversal at the top, because although the Shanghai Composite Index closed the upward gap of 2o19-2o38 points on December 8, it is in the same area as today's downward gap of 2o23-2o28 points. However, in the adjustment process on December 1o, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to a minimum of 2oo5 points, which has completely made up for the gap on December 8. The same is true for the Shenzhen Component Index, which has completely filled the gap on December 1o.

Since the gap has been filled in advance, today's market gap down again is not to fill the gap with the gap. Strictly speaking. It's not an island reversal.

"yes. So I'm just saying, similar to an island inversion. However, if the standard is relaxed a little, there is not much problem in identifying it as an island reversal, after all, the day of the 1O is just a quick downward type to fill the gap, and most of the chips still haven't had time to run away. If it starts to fall sharply from today, these chips will stand guard. ”

Qi Fei explained with some guilt, "Before, Lao Du said that he jumped three times in a row, and his qi was exhausted. I don't think so, and only regard the gap on December 8 as a relay gap, but since this gap was filled on December 1o, it proves that this is a failure gap, and it should be seen as a reversal of the top. ”

"But you didn't remind me that day, and you didn't say this point in the group." Ding Xu frowned and said with a wry smile, "I remember that you were very optimistic the day before yesterday, thinking that the market will continue to rise and will not peak in the short term." ”

"yes. It's a pity! Because although the gap was filled on December 1o, it rose beautifully on the day. Not only did it close out the yang line cut at the bottom, but it was also a K-line combination of two yangs and one yin, so I still held the luck that it would continue to rise. ”

Qi Fei sighed and said, "Besides, I also cleared Qianyuan Power that day, and I didn't have any stocks in my hand, so I relaxed and didn't care much about it." In retrospect, now that it was confirmed that it was a failure gap, the signs of a peak were indeed obvious. Today, with such a downward gap, the signs of peaking are even more obvious. Although the gap has been filled in advance on December 1o, on the whole, it can be regarded as a **-shaped island reversal. You must know that a pattern like this, especially today's sharp gap and low opening, also shows that the main force is eager to flee and has a strong willingness to trap retail investors! ”

Hearing Qi Fei say this, Ding Xu was a little speechless, and only replied after a while: "Brother Qi, Brother Qi, your Qianyuan Power has been sold, but my buns are still full, and there are still three or four hundred thousand!" ”

In the morning, Baotou Steel Rare Earth followed the market and dived all the way, closing at 8.1O yuan in the morning, down as much as 5.26%.

At present, Baotou Iron and Steel Rare Earth has fallen close to 15% from the highest point of 9.48 yuan a few days ago, not only falling below the 1O daily line, but also the current price is just on the 6O daily line that has finally climbed up, and it is not far from the 2O daily moving average.

If it falls below the medium-term moving average of the 6o daily line again in the afternoon, it means that even from a medium- and long-term perspective, it is time to exercise operational discipline and leave the market.

However, after only a day and a half of decline, it has passed 1o%, and it is indeed very unwilling to leave the market at this time.

This is a relatively heavy blow to Ding Xu, not only means that he failed to accurately escape from the top, so that his profits fell by about 40,000, but also this is the most serious judgment error since he speculated in stocks!

"Hopefully a reversal will happen in the afternoon!" Ding Xu couldn't help but pray secretly in his heart.

He didn't realize that he had begun to have a fluke mentality like Qi Fei the day before yesterday. (To be continued!)

ps: Yesterday's unwinding article mentioned: "When hitting the trapping area, it is still a normal trend to rush up and fall, don't worry." "Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are once again on the offensive strongly, which once again proves that my view is still reliable.

From a month ago, even when I opened the book, I predicted that a small bull market was coming, and every prediction since then has been basically reliable, so much so that some people joke that I have crossed over. In fact, it is not surprising that I can do this, that is, to make a medium- and long-term judgment from various fundamental and technical indicators, rather than just looking at the short-term trend of one day or two, so that I can see the general trend of a longer period, and it is not easy to miss when doing medium and long-term. I think you can do this as long as you insist on independent thinking.

A few days ago, several self-selected stocks announced in the miracle skirt and V skirt have been doing well recently, such as Kelun Pharmaceutical and Huaguang shares have risen by more than five points today. Skirt friends all know, I have a more cautious personality, never build yì buy strong stocks that have risen more than twice from the bottom, and even stocks that have risen more than 5o% are rarely recommended, the stocks I like are just started from the bottom, and the average is just long arranged stocks, such stocks are the safest, unlike some stocks that have risen continuously and up and down, although it is easy to continue to rise, but it is also easy to suddenly do the top set of people.

I naturally know that strong stocks are more likely to rise sharply, but what we want is to double ten times from 10,000 to 1o240,000, and there can be no mistakes or traps during the period. So, my favorite is still the security stock.

Happy weekend.

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