Chapter 105 Moving Average Take Profit Method
(This is the first chapter after it is on the shelves, please subscribe and monthly pass, thank you.) In addition, I wrote a testimonial on the shelf, and put it in the work-related, if you are interested, you can take a look. At least three shifts today. )
In addition, the reason why I want to write the moving average take-profit method in this chapter is because the dynamic take-profit method introduced in Chapter 46 above is very interesting to many book friends and is used as an operation method in practice. At that time, it was relatively simple to introduce because of the need for the plot, but since everyone wants to use this method, I think it would be better to introduce it in detail. Today, my Baotou steel shares fell, I also according to the dynamic take-profit method in the proportion and the average take-profit method combined with the method to implement, more than four points in the morning of the decline, I have been in the group to express the feelings, no pressure. )
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I saw thieves eating meat, but I didn't see thieves being beaten, this sentence is a bit vulgar, but the truth is simple and profound -- behind every successful person, there is an unknown experience of struggle, there is pain, struggle and struggle. It's basically impossible to get something for nothing, and even those thieves who steal money have to pay a corresponding price.
This sentence is also suitable for short-term and long-term customers in the stock market.
Those short-term investors who are keen to buy and sell stocks every day may not know the various efforts and pains of long-term investors, and how much effort is hidden behind their seemingly lazy appearance.
Long-term investors basically do not move stocks and do not do anything, so once the market corrects sharply, they have to endure the "roller coaster" torture, watching the paper profits they have earned shrink sharply. This is one of the pains.
In addition, long-term investors still need to pay attention to market information frequently. It is inevitable that there will be various judgments on the daily positive and negative, and I also know that these positive and negative will affect the rise and fall of my own stocks. However, the medium- and long-term operational discipline requires him not to move the stock lightly. This contrast between movement and stillness is the second part of pain.
In addition, long-term investors should unconsciously predict the market trend every week or even every day, and emerge some more certain opportunities to make money, such as new market hotspots. However, due to the need to adhere to long-term discipline and style, and to stick to the long-term stock, it is rare to buy and sell stocks several times a year, and I can only watch other stocks take turns to rise and fall, and watch my relatives and friends around me make quick money. Although it is generally correct to see more and move less. But this temptation and stimulation is still a kind of pain.
When the listed company is bearish, or the main force continues to suppress, long-term customers still have to bear the blow of losses, but they are unwilling to cut their flesh because of this, which affects long-term strategy and investment discipline. This kind of pain is even more painful among pains.
Of course, only when you have to endure hardships can you become a superior person. The same goes for the stock market.
Although long-term investors have experienced a lot of pain, as long as they persevere, the rewards are often very amazing.
And, sometimes, in the stock market. It is true that the lazier the person, the more profitable he is, and those who are in the stock market and have their hearts in the market will ignore it after buying a suitable good stock. Looking back a few years later, I have earned many times.
It's like the proprietress of a barbecue restaurant. Three years is more than 30 times, how can you not make short-term customers envious?
"Guy. How do you say the long term so well, don't you also like to do the short term? Hearing this, Erdan was a little puzzled.
"To correct, I am doing short-term and medium-term, medium-term and short-term combination, and what I like is to keep doing T to reduce costs in the process of medium-term. Of course, I admit that short-term also has short-term fun, and if the swing is well grasped, the compound interest effect is constantly realized, and the appreciation of assets is very amazing. As the group leader said, 10,000 yuan is doubled tenfold, which is 1o240000 yuan. ”
The guy explained, "The advantage of doing short-term is that it has an advantage in chasing market hotspots, and you can buy and sell in time for different hotspots at different stages, and fully enjoy the happiness and value-added brought by swing operations." ”
"Guy, listen to what you mean, it seems that the long-term is not bad, and the short-term is also good, so what do you want to say?" Hearing this, Erdan was really a little confused.
"I mean, although short-term is fun and exciting, you have to be not the four people I said earlier, you have short-term skills, you can play, in order not to lose money. In fact, there are advantages and disadvantages in the short and long term, and the key is to find the method that works for you. If you're fit for the long term, go for the long term; If you're fit for short-term, go short-term. If neither is suitable, then find a reliable teacher to take you to do it. If you can't find even a teacher, leave the market so as not to get hurt. ”
The guy smiled and said, "In short, because short-term investment and medium- and long-term investment are very different, we retail investors must choose the most suitable investment method according to their own strengths and personalities, and operate in strict accordance with the selected investment methods and principles. ”
"Well, that's what the guy said to me at the beginning, and now I understand it thoroughly, thank you, guy." Ding Xu has been thinking about it seriously, and at this time he finally breathed a sigh of relief and said with a smile, "Okay, I don't regret that Baozi didn't do T today." Since you are doing long-term, you should appropriately ignore these short-term fluctuations. Occasionally do t to reduce costs, but also at least 8o% or more certainty to do. ”
"Guy, Miracle, what you said is too complicated, Miracle is understood, I'm still a little confused. All I ask you now is, when exactly are we going to sell the buns? ”
Stupidly asked uneasily, "A few days ago, it finally rose to eight yuan, and now it has fallen to seven yuan, I am really afraid that it will not be able to control it and fall to five or six yuan." After all, the market always seems to be unstable at 2,000 points, and many people say that the market will bottom out. ”
Ding Xu smiled and replied, "Stupid, you're too worried." It doesn't matter, we can take the dynamic take profit method, which is equivalent to having a fuse. As long as the dynamic take-profit method is strictly implemented, you are not afraid. ”
Hearing Ding Xu's words, Xiaokong suddenly interjected: "But I remember that the dynamic take-profit method you mentioned last time is generally based on the decline ratio of 8%-1o%. On November 17, the steamed bun rose to 8.o3 yuan. Later, we made a t and picked it up at 6.9o yuan. However, it is calculated from 8.o3 yuan. 6.9 yuan has fallen by 14%, which is already in line with the shipment standard of the dynamic take-profit method! Why buy it. Instead of selling? ”
"It's very simple, because the bun has not yet entered the main rising wave, not a fast pull up period, so it is not suitable for the short-term take profit ratio of 8%. We do medium and long-term, generally take a 15%-2o% decline ratio, so that the position of the 2O day or 3O day moving average is relatively close, and the moving average take profit method has overlap, it is a double insurance, and it is not easy to be washed off by the bookmaker. Ding Xu patiently explained.
"Why did you run out of a moving average take-profit method again?" Stupid listened to his head big.
"Uh...... The moving average take-profit method is also a dynamic take-profit method. Didn't I say that before? Ding Xu scratched his head.
"Nope!" Sora and Dumb said in unison.
"Then I'll talk about it systematically." Ding Xu sweated.
The dynamic take-profit method is relative to the static take-profit method.
The so-called take profit, also known as take profit, refers to placing an order at the set target price to ship and lock in profits.
The opposite of take profit is stop loss, which refers to placing an order to cut meat at a price that can bear the risk of loss, clearing the warehouse and shipping, and reducing losses.
The meaning of taking profit is to close when you see a good situation, and you do not require your profit to reach the highest point. Just make most of the profits.
Take profit is divided into static take profit method and dynamic take profit method.
Static take profit refers to setting a specific profit target, such as buying a stock at 5 yuan, and setting the profit target level at 5o%, that is, 7.5 yuan. Once this profit target level is reached. We must resolutely overcome greed, take profit and sell, and we can't rise by 5o% and think about doubling. That kind of take profit is not called static take profit, and it often becomes four different. In the end, the guide failed.
The static take-profit method is generally suitable for medium and long-term investors, requiring investors to have a more accurate understanding of the general trend and the long-term trend of individual stocks. But in fact. This is often not done by stockholders, the so-called profit target is often the increase and price of the stockholders' own fantasy at will, and it is very inflexible in the practice of stock speculation, and it is easy to detach from reality, so it is not a very scientific method.
More scientific, it is the dynamic take-profit method.
The dynamic take-profit method means that when the invested stock has made a large profit, the investor judges that the stock will continue to rise due to reasons such as the stock price rising in good form or the subject matter is not exhausted, so he continues to hold the stock. Wait until the stock price falls back and when a certain standard is reached, the investor sells at a profit.
Compared with the static take-profit method, the dynamic take-profit method is to closely track the latest trend of the stock, which can usually eat more profits, and even eat the fish body cleanly, and only decisively escape from the top when the market enters the fishtail stage.
Specifically, there are three methods of dynamic take-profit method:
The first is the proportional take-profit method, that is, it is determined according to the proportional range of the stock price falling. For example, when the stock starts to rise and rises quickly, you can set a take-profit ratio of 8%, and once the stock price falls by more than 8% compared with the recent highest price, you can resolutely sell. When the stock starts to climb from the bottom, you can appropriately set the proportion of the pullback a little higher according to the needs of the medium and long-term wave pattern, such as 15%-2o%.
The second is the moving average take-profit method. In an upward trend, the moving average always follows the stock price as it rises. Once the stock price turns around and breaks through the medium- and long-term moving average, and cannot stand above the moving average within three days, it means that the uptrend will weaken or even turn down. Shareholders should immediately choose to take profit, settle for safety, and keep the fruits of victory.
In general, you can choose the 2O daily moving average as the standard. Generally, the medium-term dark horse will form a smooth upward channel on the eve of the rise, during which the stock price rarely falls below the 2O daily moving average, which is called the dark horse runway, and the characteristics are very obvious.
Of course, the 3O daily moving average can also be chosen as the standard, because the 3O daily moving average, also known as the lifeline, is a watershed for short-term strength and weakness. Many strong stocks will continue to climb along the 3O daily moving average, rarely falling below the 3O daily line, and once it falls, it is often the beginning of shipments.
The third is the technical form of profit-taking. This take-profit method requires a high level of short-term technique, including the ability to accurately analyze the line chart and predict future movements, and it can spot the top earlier than the moving average and proportional take-profit methods. When the stock price rises to a certain stage, stagflation, and various head patterns are formed, immediately and resolutely take profit. As the saying goes, "quietly I am gone, and I will not take a cloud with me".
In short, ordinary shareholders do not need too high technical ability, they only need to effectively combine the proportional take-profit method and the moving average take-profit method, and they can generally escape the top in the early stage of the stock price peak.
For example, when the bull market peaked in 2oo7, those investors who shipped in time after the market and individual stocks fell below the 2O or 3O daily moving average eventually retained relatively large profits, otherwise they may lose a lot.
Of course, these profit-taking methods are not absolute, some bookmakers are very fierce, often in the short term to take a continuous limit method, the stock price to more than 2o% of the decline, or continue to fall below the long-term moving average, and so on according to the above method to take profit, the stock price suddenly turned upward, began a wave of greater market.
For example, the 53O market in 2oo7 is like this, the main force of some stocks took advantage of the negative stamp duty, and successively sold and shuffled several times, and after the shareholders panicked and handed over the bloody chips in their hands, the main force backhanded long, and doubled or even several times the stock price again in a few months.
If you encounter this situation, there is no way to do it, after all, shareholders are not stock gods, and they can only take a more reliable profit-taking method most of the time.
"Although the wave theory is more suitable for the analysis of the broader market, and many stocks are not applicable, but if you look closely, the vast majority of stocks are still divided into wave-type rises, some are three waves, some are five waves, and there is no qualitative nature. Since Baotou Iron and Steel Rare Earth bottomed out at 5.66 yuan on November 7, it rose to 8.o3 yuan on November 17, and it only took seven trading days. ”
Speaking of which, Ding Xu concluded, "Since it is not the main rising wave, but just rising, it is natural to set the proportion a little higher according to the medium and long-term investment method." At present, I have set a take-profit ratio of 2o%, and Baotou Steel rare earth has not yet reached this standard. And during this period of time, although Baotou Steel rare earth has been continuously adjusted, it has never effectively fallen below the 2O daily line, so after I finished T, not only did not sell, but also continued to buy. ”
"I see." Stupid suddenly realized. (To be continued!)
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