In June 2013, the A-share market fell back into a deep decline. Pen @ fun @ pavilion wWw. ｂｉｑUｇE。 Even the cinema chain holding company, which rose like a rainbow after listing, began to quickly turn around after the stock price stopped at 399 yuan, falling back below 350 yuan. However, there is still a market value of more than 80 billion yuan.

Other stocks in the market are even more mournful.

Of course, this is also the last fall, on June 25, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 1,849 points, known as the bottom of the Opium War.

After this bottom, in the next year or so, although the A-share market has not skyrocketed rapidly, in fact, it is already full of gold.

Of course, after a long time of around 2000 points, investors will inevitably have a fear of heights. At the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2014, after the A-share market began to soar, many investors left the market as soon as they unbundled, and stepped on the soaring market in the first half of 2015.

As the head of the small partner company, Wang Qinian will naturally not miss this opportunity to buy the bottom.

Of course, in order to avoid suspicion of manipulation, partner companies investing in the A-share market basically only buy and not sell.

This buy-and-hold strategy is not to make the difference, but to really rely on the profits and dividends of these companies to recover the cost. Therefore, the small partner companies buy some companies with relatively stable operations and relatively high dividend rates.

Growth stocks that do not pay dividends, I'm sorry, if there is such a company in A-shares, Wang Qinian will not buy it.

If a company's ten-year dividends cannot recover the investment cost, such a company does not conform to the principle of only buying and not selling in the A-share market, so it will naturally not invest.

It is precisely for this reason that the investment of small partner companies in the A-share market is very demanding. Basically, the vast majority of companies don't touch.

Even some have good business models and high moats. A company that pays very generous dividends. You have to wait until the stock price falls and you don't know your mother, and the partner company will buy it.

To put it simply. Generally, if you don't buy stocks, buying stocks will inevitably be a big bear market!

Only in a big bear market will there be an opportunity to buy good companies cheaply.

"I think it's time to buy some quality hydropower stocks!" Wang Qinian sighed leisurely.

"Don't buy bank stocks?" Zhang Wei, general manager of Xiaoxiao Financial Holdings, couldn't help but be stunned, according to his opinion, bank stocks with a price-earnings ratio of four or five times should be the lowest in the A-share market.

From various perspectives, the current bank stocks in the A-share market should be the lowest in decades. It's not just about comparing itself with the A-share market. Even compared with their counterparts in the European and American stock markets, the current A-share banks are generally the largest banks in Europe and the United States in terms of profits and dividends.

"You can't just look at the bank's price-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio. Looking only at the price-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio, A-share banks are very cheap, but banks are a long-cycle industry, and the cyclicality is too strong, and once the economic growth rate slows down, the problem of bad debts will definitely be constantly exposed. It is necessary to completely expose and clean up the bad debts, so as to free up the development space for the next ten years or more. Before. It was the 98 financial crisis that completely resolved more than 40% of the bad debts, and laid the foundation for China's banking industry to be reborn from technical bankruptcy to nirvana. But now more than a decade has passed. Although the scale of banks has increased a lot, the large-scale exposure of bad debts is not very thorough. Wang Qinian said with a smile.

The bank lends money to the enterprise, and even if the enterprise has a problem at the beginning, it will cover it until it can't hold it anymore, and then let the bank know. After the banking staff knew about it, in order to avoid the impact of their performance appraisal, they naturally had to find ways to resolve and delay the exposure of bad debts. The business personnel can't hold the industry of local branch branches. I will definitely try to solve the problem, and I will report it if I can't solve it if I can't cover it. So. There is always a huge gap between the speed at which the bank's head office obtains the exposure of non-performing loans and the real non-performing loans.

Now everyone is more optimistic. I didn't realize that the problem was serious, and I was covered with a lot of bad debts. Eventually, these non-performing loans will be disclosed and exploded.

To put it simply, in Wang Qinian's opinion, it is not that the bank is bad. However, the bank president has no way of knowing the real non-performing loan situation of the bank, and the future economy is declining, and the bank does not know how much profit accumulation will have to pay to make up for the huge loss of non-performing loans. This problem has not been completely exposed, and there is no large-scale write-off of trillions of bad performers, and Wang Qinian will not invest in bank stocks for the time being.

As for water and electricity, it is more reliable than the bank,

After all, in modern society, people can even have very little to do with banks, but it is impossible to live without electricity!

Hydropower is the second largest way to generate electricity after thermal power. Not only is it clean and environmentally friendly, but the cost is even cheaper than that of thermal power, and the safety is similar to that of thermal power.

Of course, hydropower also has a certain monopoly, and high-quality hydropower resources have a certain monopoly. For example, the power resources of the Three Gorges of the Yangtze River are mainly monopolized by the Yangtze River Electric Power Company, and this resource is exclusively operated by the Yangtze River Electric Power.

This is basically the case for large hydropower projects. Super projects that cost tens of billions or hundreds of billions of dollars are monopolies.

Only those small hydropower plants do not have a monopoly, but they are like chicken ribs.

And now some large hydropower stocks can be said to be really cheap!

For example, SDIC Power and Sichuan Energy. The two state-owned power companies are mainly two companies to divide the Yalong River hydropower project.

The Yalong River Hydropower Project is second only to the Three Gorges Hydropower Project on the Yangtze River. Moreover, the stability of the incoming water is better than that of the Three Gorges.

Large-scale hydropower projects generally have a long service life, for example, small hydropower stations built in the late Qing Dynasty are still generating electricity, which shows how long the life of hydropower stations is.

In addition to the relatively expensive investment cost of the hydropower station at the beginning, in the actual operation process, the operating cost of the hydropower station is low, and the gross profit of the better hydropower station is even more than 50%!

In addition, the profits of hydropower plants are relatively stable, and they are not prone to the cost of thermal power plants that are very volatile with the fluctuation of coal prices.

The water is then stored in the reservoir, and the water is released from the reservoir to start generating electricity. It's like when the water comes over, it automatically prints money.

Due to the very low cost of power generation and the stable sales of electricity, high-quality hydropower projects can be called money printing machines.

Normally. Some of the more high-quality large-scale hydropower projects have surprisingly high profit margins in terms of annual repayment of bank loan principal and interest, as well as deduction of depreciation and operating costs.

The reason why Wang Qinian thought of investing in a power company. Mainly because I have invested in thermal power in my previous life, it is inevitable to look at hydropower when studying thermal power. After all. Water and fire are incompatible, and the two are competitive.

Thermal power is clearly a cyclical industry, and it is not just subject to coal prices. When the economy is good, coal is expensive, and it is not easy for thermal power plants to make money. When the economy is bad, the price of coal does fall and the cost of power generation comes down, but actually. The utilization hours of generator sets have been reduced again, because the demand for electricity has declined, and the thermal power capacity has encountered the embarrassment of surplus.

Hydropower stations don't have to be so painful, and general hydropower is given priority to the grid. Unless the bureaucrats are particularly fucked up, they would rather burn more media than use thermal power, and under normal circumstances, for the sake of the overall situation, they will use water and electricity first. After all, thermal power generation is done with non-renewable resources, and if you burn it, it will be gone. Hydropower, on the other hand, is a renewable resource. As long as the reservoir is filled with water, it can generate a steady stream of electricity.

It has the best stability among the various power resources in the world. Undoubtedly, hydroelectric and thermal power. In terms of cost performance, hydropower is ahead of thermal power, both stable and cheap, and hydropower should be said to be the best way to generate electricity.

Other photovoltaic and wind power are not only expensive, but also unstable. It can only be used as a supplementary energy source, as long as wind power and hydropower are launched, a large number of thermal power and hydropower will definitely be launched, once these unreliable power stations are closed. It is necessary to immediately start thermal power and hydropower to wipe their butts.

As for nuclear power, although it is stable and cheap. However, security is highly questionable. Once something happens to the nuclear power plant. It's a big event that the whole world is paying attention to.

In short, the price of both profitable and promising hydroelectric money printing machines in 2013 is indeed rare cheap.

In addition to being cheap, the dividends of the two investments are also relatively reliable. Reliable dividends of enterprises, after buying, just get dividends every year, learn from Buffett to hold for a long time.

Regarding the two investments, Wang Qinian said: "Buy as much as you want if you are below 4 yuan in Guotou, and the same is true for Sichuan investment below 10 yuan. "Well, the current 10 yuan of Sichuan Investment is relative to the 5 yuan in a few years, because, after that, there is another transfer of shares, 10 to 10, which is essentially a trick of splitting into two shares, of course, gamblers in the A-share market like this kind of transfer shares.

The real thing is cash dividends, and enterprises take out cash to dividends, profits and assets, which are more real and reliable. Otherwise, it may be a paper tiger that can tell a story, which looks beautiful, but it is actually not a good thing.

Regarding the two investments, the small partner company quietly exploded!

I only buy but don't sell, and I don't take care of anyone when I buy, and I buy crazy with my own funds. The daily purchase amount is more than 100 million yuan.

With this kind of big buying, it is impossible not to be noticed!

After all, it is possible for the A-share market to buy heavily on the list. Sure enough, for several days in a row, the list of small partner financial holding companies was on the list of net buyers of the two investments.

Of course, by the time the market began, when the analytical partner Financial Holding suddenly closed the hydropower stocks that bought A-shares, the partner company had already eaten and drunk enough, and the purchase was finished.

In general, SDIC Power bought 435 million shares at a cost of 1.65 billion yuan. Sichuan Investment Energy bought 250 million shares at a cost of 2 billion yuan.

The shares of these two major companies have exceeded 5%, constituting a sign and becoming an important investor, and in the future, the increase in holdings and holdings will be disclosed in a timely manner and subject to certain restrictions.

After the purchase, the media has been exposed, and the small partner company is buying hydropower and hydropower on a large scale!

Zhang Wei said: "As a rare long-term investor in the A-share market, we are basically left-sided, value-oriented, and when good companies are cheap, we buy." It's not because of how many points the A-share index is predicted, whether it has bottomed out. For us, it basically doesn't make sense. Some of the A-share stocks bought by the small partner financial holdings are strategic partners, and they hold their equity and can better cooperate with them. Some are good companies. A good company, after we buy it, we don't buy it, because every year we look at its assets, they all increase, and it also gives us dividends every year. We don't have to spend our management resources to create value for us, and there is no need to sell this kind of company. For example, Kweichow Moutai we bought very early, Mr. Wang himself should have bought Moutai soon after it was listed, and the financial investment of Moutai in the small partner company has a history of eight years, we have made a lot of money, and we have also recovered the investment cost by dividends. ”

"Why not buy Yangtze River Power, after all, it is the boss of hydropower, and the dividend ratio is even higher! Moreover, Yalongjiang has a high debt ratio, and a large amount of its annual income is used to pay off debts. ”

"Long-term power is more stable, but in the short term, the gross profit of the Yalong River project exceeds that of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station. In the long run, the Yalong River still has more development potential. Even if you don't analyze this, just the price-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio, the two investments are cheaper than Changdian, right? Zhang Wei explained, "I think that as long as there is no drought or drought in the Yalong River, and there are no natural disasters and earthquakes, its profits will only get higher and higher, and after repaying its debts every year, the debts will become lower and lower, and the net profit will be higher and higher." To put it simply, it is similar to our partner cinema chain, even if the revenue does not grow, you only need to reduce the debt every year, then the profits will be released. What's more, not growing is only a relatively bad projection, in fact, its power generation is definitely growing! ”

It will be true that the small partner is in the A-share market, and he is really practicing value investment. Moreover, the rate of return is very high, however, this approach is estimated by others to be admired - it is indeed a decent way to invest. However, everyone actually invests, and they all follow the evil way of investing.

Even, most investors, without rules, investment is like a random stroll, today is this routine, tomorrow is that idea, there is no really clear and reliable concept.

Therefore, any kind of investment philosophy, whether it is quantification, value, trend, arbitrage, hedging, dynamic equilibrium, most investors are unlikely to implement it for a long time, and most investors only pursue one stimulus.

Of course, the small partner company engages in value investment in A-shares that only sells but does not buy, not because Wang Qinian is really a brain-dead fan of value investment. Rather, it is because the rules of the game of A-shares are more painful, buying, selling, long, and short in the open market may be caught, and there is a suspicion of insider trading and market manipulation.

Only long-term investment, after buying and not considering selling, is it easier to avoid suspicion.

This has also caused two routines of investment in small partners at home and abroad.

More domestic investors in traditional value stocks with high dividends only sell but do not buy, and only rely on dividends to return to capital, of course, first of all, high dividends.

Investment in overseas markets, small partner companies are more like event-driven arbitrage. After some arbitrage opportunities, the small partner company decisively speculated.

In addition, the investment of small partners in overseas markets is also frantically chasing various growth stocks. Moreover, the awesome thing is that it can really catch the real high-growth enterprises. (To be continued.) )